This weekly series analyzes the ever-changing Dynasty fantasy football landscape, aiming to stay more in sync with the market than your league rivals. We will find the right balance between overreacting and underreacting each week to provide the best possible value to our teams. Those who act too quickly or too slowly to what this NFL season tells them each week will see their Dynasty rosters weaken compared to ours.
In Dynasty, we care about the Why with regard to player production on a weekly basis because, ultimately, we want to make decisions on players based on what their careers, or at least a portion of their careers, will look like, not just the rest of this NFL season. Player value in the long term is far more important to us than short-term production.
Unless specified otherwise, Rankings are referenced from KeepTradeCut (“KTC”) for SuperFlex (2 QB) Leagues. I will list players by position rank, then overall rank (E.g. WR4, RNK 11)
Please reach out to me on Twitter (@Lboyle_FF) or Reddit (u/DortcherChamber) if you have any questions!
See:
Week 5 Notes
Full Disclosure, I have a slight concussion. Unlike Josh Allen, I have been taking it pretty easy since getting knocked out, but I wanted to write up something for this week to give actionable advice. This piece will be far shorter than my usual market reports (six players instead of ten), but I promise to deliver a (longer-form) banger next week to make up for it. Thanks for your understanding!
Also, despite my concussion, I had planned a trip months prior to visit Kansas City and see the Chiefs v. Saints game on MNF, and I saw the GOAT play football live. I highly recommend getting down to Arrowhead if possible, even if you happen to be slightly impaired. As a Commanders (and Maryland Terrapins) fan, it was unlike any in-person football experience.
TRENDING UP
TEE HIGGINS, CINCINNATI BENGALS (WR25, RNK 57)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense were absolutely on fire on Sunday. A huge plus for them in Fantasy Football Land is how highly concentrated the offense is:
While Ja’Marr Chase stole the show, Tee still posted a 9/14 for 83 yards and two touchdowns. After he missed the beginning of the season with a hamstring injury (in typical Tee Higgins fashion), he now has back to back games with 10+ targets.
The best part about how good Burrow, Tee, and Chase look is how equally bad the Bengals’ defense has been, which should put Burrow & Co. in plenty of passing situations.
Recommendation: Hold
I don’t know how reliable this is, but there are rumors that Tee wants out sooner than expected. Whether it happens at the deadline or after the season, it’s unfeasible the Bengals will retain Higgins, Chase, and Burrow. Tee is the odd man out.
Whenever Tee’s Cincy departure is imminent, you ought to sell. I think Higgins is a great WR2, and probably slightly underrated as such. Still, I want to capitalize on that selling opportunity when he’s expected to be anything more than that. Hold on and enjoy the production wave with Burrow and the abysmal defense.
RICO DOWDLE, DALLAS COWBOYS, (RB41, RNK 159)
It’s time to get on the Rico Train! I can’t remember a player who was victory-lapped more in both directions before Week 6.
Rico also tied Zeke with 28.9% route participation but had two targets to Zeke’s one. Scoring one of two Dallas receiving touchdowns, Dowdle only slightly out-performed his 16.2 Expected Fantasy Points with 19.4. His 16.2 Expected Fantasy Points is the highest mark by far that any Cowboys RB has reached this season.
The uptick in volume over the past two weeks is incredibly encouraging, and so is what Mike McCarthy is saying:
Recommendation: Buy
The dude is a “bowling ball full of butcher knives,” and you aren’t buying? The Cowboys have had a slow start, but this is a backfield I want to have a piece of. I attacked it all Summer for Best Ball, so why should I stop now?
The great thing about Rico is that he’s incredibly cheap! Priced around a 2026 late second-round pick, I’m going after Dowdle on every one of my contending teams where I need some additional RB firepower.
DARNELL MOONEY, ATLANTA FALCONS (WR47, RNK 120)
Darnell Mooney is the WR15. Huh?
Mooney’s Fantasy Points in his last four games:
- 17.8
- 14.6
- 8.6
- 31.5
Mooney is averaging 18.1 points per game in his last four games; Justin Jefferson (WR3) is averaging 19.0 fantasy points per game this season.
Recommendation: Buy
Kirk Cousins has a history of King-making in fantasy football. More importantly, this offense is starting to pass more and do so successfully, and I expect Drake London + Mooney to be the main beneficiaries. I mean, it surely won’t be Kyle Pitts.
I think a lot of people are still “take-locked” with Mooney. Because of his unimpressive fantasy football résumé, Mooney owners could quickly “sell high” off of a 31.5-point performance. This was likely Mooney’s best game of the season, but I think it’s probable that he will finish this season as a WR2.
For a 27-year-old WR in the best situation of his career, I’m inclined to throw a mid-2025 2nd for the production that comes with a chance of something more on top.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Kirk Cousins
- Ty Chandler
- Josh Downs
- Jalen Tolbert
- Rashid Shaheed
TRENDING DOWN
RASHEE RICE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (WR16, RNK 39)
Nobody was as excited as I was in week 1, fully victory-lapping my Rashee bags. He completely took over the Travis Kelce role and was smashing in fantasy football as an elite WR.
Recommendation: Buy
Buy Injured players in Dynasty. It’s one of the few tried and true methods of gaining value on a player. Curious how? Adam Harstad breaks it down far better than I could here. Essentially, the market overreacts, and whenever you can identify a market inefficiency, you should act upon it swiftly.
I wrote everything I needed to say in Week 1. Rashee is currently the same price he was after Thursday Night Football against the Ravens, weeks before we knew he would lead all WRs in Yards Per Route Run. If you are not contending this year, go out and buy Rashee.
TANK DELL, HOUSTON TEXANS (WR32, RNK 77)
Man, how did we get here?
Tank’s rookie season stacked up amongst the truly elite WRs of the past 14 years. This season? Well… it’s been ugly.
Nico Collins looks like one of the best players in all of football; Stefon Diggs, who looks certifiably not #washed, has joined the party; Dell is averaging a 13.3% target share compared to his counterparts Nico and Diggs with 23.2% and 21.1% respectively.
Much worse, when Collins left this past Sunday’s game with an injury, he did not see an increase in usage, but instead was out-targeted by Diggs, Dalton Schultz, and Dare Ogunbowale!
Recommendation: Buy
If you want a more in-depth analysis of Dell than I can provide this week, I implore you to review Ryan Heath’s phenomenal breakdown. Essentially, Dell was awesome last year, and something is clearly up this year; Dell was the highest-rated separator among all receivers in 2023 and now ranks in the middle of the pack. Whether it is injury-related or not (broken fibula last year; gunshot wound this past April), it’s worth buying Dell based on the incredible things he showed us last year at this current price.
At the end of the day, Dell is still connected to C.J. Stroud for years, and I believe that their connection is fairly strong.
AMARI COOPER, CLEVELAND BROWNS (WR49, RNK 134)
Deshaun Watson is really really bad.
It’s pretty crazy that this Browns offense is historically bad when we have seen such terrible Browns teams, including the first NFL team to be 0-16!
Amari Cooper, unlike Deshaun Watson, is good. Despite this disgusting display, Amari is averaging 17.2 Expected Fantasy Points per Game, has a 33.6% first-read target share, and is third in the NFL in targets. Yet, he’s still only the WR35 because… well, because of his quarterback.
Recommendation: Buy
The Deshaun Watson experience has to be over soon… right? I have to imagine we will be seeing Jameis Winston sooner rather than later. Winston, who plays like any kid who picks up Madden for the first time, finished as a Top 5 Fantasy QB in 2019 despite his 30 interceptions. Mike Evans had 1100+ yards and 8 TDs with Jameis at the helm.
On contending teams with some holes, I want to buy Amari before Watson officially gets benched or before Amari gets traded. This does not come without risk, but at the cost of a late 2025 2nd, it is a well-calculated one worth taking. After all, Amari offers immense upside.
Honorable Mentions
- Patrick Mahomes
- Travis Etienne
- Najee Harris
- Romeo Doubs
- Dalton Kincaid
