This article will be part of a weekly series examining the current Dynasty landscape and trying to be more in tune with the market than our league mates. We will find the right balance between overreacting and underreacting each week to provide the best possible value to our teams. Those who act too quickly or too slowly to what this NFL season tells them each week will see their Dynasty rosters weaken compared to ours!
In Dynasty, we care about the Why with regard to player production on a weekly basis because, ultimately, we want to make decisions on players based on what their careers, or at least a portion of their careers, will look like, not just the rest of this NFL season. Player value in the long term is far more important to us than short-term production.
Unless specified otherwise, Rankings are referenced from KeepTradeCut (“KTC”) for SuperFlex (2 QB) Leagues. I will list players by position rank, then overall rank (E.g. WR4, RNK 11)
Please reach out to me on Twitter (@Lboyle_FF) or on Reddit (u/DortcherChamber) if you have any questions!
See Week 1 Market Report.
Week 2 Notes
“Why are you buying all these rising players? What if this is the top?”
One thing I have learned in studying financial markets is to never call tops. A common fallacy in investing is that you should not buy a stock that has reached a new high. Why buy a stock at its peak when I’m supposed to be buying low and selling high?
Peaks are almost impossible to identify in the stock market, and Dynasty Fantasy Football is not too dissimilar. Do you know how many times Microsoft or Apple has absolutely shattered their previous all time high in price per share?
How many 1000+ yard seasons in a row do you think people thought Jerry Rice had reached peak value in fantasy football? We don’t even have to go that far back – fantasy football analysts have been prematurely calling the top on Mike Evans for years.
In these market reports, you will never see me call tops or call bottoms. I’m looking for market inefficiencies based on my own analysis and the analysis of all the fantastic minds whose work I cite.
Last Week, I had too many “Honorable Mentions,” so I will limit myself to five each for groups of trending up and trending down. These are the guys I almost wrote up. Also, I won’t list a guy as an honorable mention if I wrote them up the previous week.
TRENDING UP
NICO COLLINS, HOUSTON TEXANS (WR11, RNK 28)
Nico looks like a bona fide WR1 and superstar. Hopefully, you bought over the summer when his price made absolutely no sense.
Outside of how spectacular Nico has looked in these first two weeks, what really stands out is his route participation compared to last year. Despite adding Stefon Diggs to the offense, Collins is playing on almost 20% more of the Texans’ routes. Not to mention, with both Diggs and a healthy Tank Dell involved, Nico has seen a materially higher first-read target share. He’s clearly used this opportunity, averaging 126 receiving yards and 22.6 fantasy points across two games.
Collins leads all receivers in receiving yards with 252; the next closest mark is 200.
Recommendation: Buy/Hold
Trade Garrett Wilson for Nico Collins+.
It’s the same argument I made in May—this guy is incredible and will be tied to CJ Stroud for many years to come. I’m not sure we could have seen a better start from Nico. I don’t anticipate this train stopping any time soon.
BROCK BOWERS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, (TE2, RNK 36)
I could have easily written up all three of the seemingly already elite, exciting rookies: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers, but I decided just to write up Bowers. TE, as a position, is in shambles right now across the league, so I wanted to focus on one of the few bright spots.
Brock Bowers dynasty owners could not be more comfortable having paid likely a mid-to-late-2024 1st round rookie pick on maybe the greatest TE of all time.
Bowers was a ridiculously good prospect and holds several PFF records:
We know the profile is incredible. Perhaps just as incredible is what he has already accomplished in a Gardner Minshew-led offense competing for targets with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. What is particularly notable is how comfortable Bowers has looked in these first two games. He’s making everything look incredibly easy.
It’s rare to see a rookie TE do this well so early into their career.
Brock Bowers vs. Davante Adams (2024 Weeks 1-2):
- Yards per Route Run: 2.79 (Bowers) vs. 2.35 (Adams)
- Receiving Yards per game: 78.0 vs. 84.5
- Target Share: 23.9% vs. 25.4%
- Fantasy Points per game: 15.3 vs. 18.5
Recommendation: Send the House
Given his profile, this start, and the current state of the TE position, I’m doing anything I can to buy high on Bowers. He should easily be the Dynasty TE1, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe he will finish as the TE1 in redraft. I would trade Sam LaPorta for Bowers straight up in a heartbeat. You might even be able to get something on top of that.
I think you could consider Bowers as a low-end WR1 in Tight End Premium leagues. Call me crazy, but I would move Tyreek Hill or Puka Nacua straight up for Bowers in this format.
I think Bowers will prove to be the ultimate example of how underreacting to a small (NFL) sample can prevent you from attaining massive value in Dynasty. Don’t be afraid to pay a premium for him. That being said, there is a price that is too high. In non-Tight End Premium leagues, I wouldn’t pay above WR10 or QB10 prices. If you are dying to sell CMC, I would be comfortable doing that.
DE’VON ACHANE, MIAMI DOLPHINS (RB4, RNK 17)
BREAKING: The most electric and efficient player in the NFL last year is getting the ball more this year.
Dolphins Receiving Yard leaders through two games:
- Tyreek Hill: 154 yards
- Jaylen Waddle: 150 yards
- DE’VON ACHANE: 145 yards
Reception Leaders:
- DE’VON ACHANE: 14
- Tyreek Hill: 10
- Jaylen Waddle: 9
Achane also leads the Dolphins in rushing yards with 120 – Jeff Wilson is the next closest with only 26. In summary, De’Von Achane is averaging 16 rushing attempts, seven receptions, one TD, and 132.5 total yards per game. In PPR, this is worth 26.3 fantasy points per game, which leads all RBs not named Alvin Kamara.
As a receiving option, Achane has been legitimately elite.
Yards Per Route Run Leaders through two games (minimum 20 routes):
Recommendation: Buy/Hold
For me, there is no reason to believe that this guy isn’t an absolute superstar. You can cite Raheem Mostert getting hurt in week 2, but in Week 1, Mostert looked utterly irrelevant. Do you think this receiving volume is unsustainable?
The future of the Dolphins is the one thing you could point to as a concern, as at this point, we really have no idea what decisions will be made regarding Tua Tagovailoa and his health. Let’s assume Tua is out for the year. Put yourself in Mike McDaniel’s shoes (that are way too big for him)—What would you want your offense to look like with Skylar Thompson? For passing plays, I would want to use as many quick dump-offs to my YAC monster RB as possible.
He will be a very difficult player to buy after the first two weeks of the season, but maybe the Tua concerns are enough for a manager to want to “sell high” on Achane. He and Jahmyr Gibbs are ranked right next to each other, and I would comfortably trade Gibbs straight up for Achane. You may be able to get a + on top of that, depending on what the Achane owner thinks about his propensity for injuries or the Dolphins QB concerns.
CHRIS GODWIN, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, (WR34, RNK 79)
This price for Godwin does not make sense to me at all. Refer to the list above in Achane’s section, and you will see that Chris Godwin ranks 2nd in Yards Per Route run among all qualifying participants.
In 2023, Chris Godwin averaged just 12.3 fantasy points per game. Through two games, he’s averaging 23.5 fantasy points per game. What’s changed? Is this just a fluke?
New offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who came from the Rams, told us this summer that Godwin would be playing more in the slot, and he specifically mentioned that he would be playing in the Cooper Kupp role. From 2021-2023, Godwin played games with a slot rate >65%, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. In all other games? 12.4 Fantasy Points per game.
- 2023 Slot Rate: 38.4%
- 2024 Slot Rate: 65.1%
With Godwin playing where he belongs, he is alpha’ing Mike Evans:
- YPRR: 4.65>2.19
- Target Share: 32.7%>22.4%
- First Read Target Share: 34.2%>26.3%
- First Downs per route run: 0.279>0.149
- Receptions: 15>8
- Receiving Yards: 200>103
Recommendation: Screaming Buy
This offense looks fantastic. Baker Mayfield has really come into his own and is somehow QB1 in Fantasy Football. I think it’s more likely that Godwin’s slot % goes up than it comes down. It’s important to note that his slot rate was only 50% in week 1 compared to 81% in Week 2. If he can remain above a 70% slot rate, I don’t see how he’s not easily finishing as a WR1… which brings me to this price.
Chris Godwin is 28 years old, averaging 23.5 fantasy points per game, and is priced as the WR35. Some names listed above him are Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and Josh Jacobs. To be honest, I don’t see much of a difference between him and Deebo Samuel (WR29) or DJ Moore (WR25).
I would be smashing accept on any offer for lower than less than 60 overall prices or WR24. Our Rest of Season Fantasy Rankings has him as the WR11.
BRIAN ROBINSON, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (RB18, RNK 88)
As it turns out, nobody should have been concerned about a dusty 29-year-old Austin Ekeler threatening Brob’s share of this backfield. Who would’ve thought?
- Snaps: 75>56
- Rushing Attempts: 29>10
- Rushing Yards per game: 86.5>24.0
- Routes: 19<28
- Targets: 6<7
- Expected Fantasy Points per game: 13.5>8.0
- Fantasy Points per game: 16.3>10.9
One of my main concerns from the preseason was seeing Ekeler get the majority of the inside the 10-yard-line usage. So far, Robinson has 5 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard-line compared to Ekeler’s 2. Robinson is also the only back with a TD. Another positive is how similarly involved the two backs are in the passing game.
He’s also coming off an electric game against the Giants that could’ve been even stronger had the Commanders gotten themselves in a legitimate scoring position for him:
Recommendation: Hold
I think Brob’s price this summer was pretty silly (RB32, RNK 119). I feel pretty confident that he has always been a talented back, but fantasy analysts really took issue with his performance his rookie year. You know, the year he got fucking shot.
The Commanders are a dumpster fire of an organization, and this is the best situation Robinson has seen in his career. Despite that, I will not lie that I am slightly concerned with Jayden Daniels vulturing his TDs and rushing yards.
I think as a 25-year-old RB, his price is pretty fair. Backs ranked ahead of him: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks. What I would recommend if you want to buy is tiering down from a Josh Jacobs or Isiah Pacheco to get Brob+.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Baker Mayfield
- Alvin Kamara
- JK Dobbins
- Rashid Shaheed
- Zay Flowers
TRENDING DOWN
TERRY MCLAURIN, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (WR44, RNK 118)
As I mentioned above, the Commanders are a dumpster fire organization. Yes, they have new ownership now, which is fantastic and as a fan, I’m thrilled. They are doing everything in their power to remove the stink that the old regime left in the building. As hard as they tried, they still hired Kliff Kingsbury as their offensive coordinator.
Of the six Commanders receivers who ran 12+ routes, Terry ranks fifth in yards per route run with 0.71. The guys in front of him are Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson, Zach Ertz, and Olamide Zaccheaus. His average depth of target is 3.8 yards, he’s averaging 19.5 receiving yards through two games, and is performing below expectations in fantasy points per game (11.6 per game expected vs. 6.0 per game actual).
Recommendation: Sell
I’m concerned this is not the bottom for Terry as this is truly systemic. When QB Jayden Daniels faces pressure, the Commanders have a league-low 29% target rate (league average is 60%); 36% of these dropbacks are scrambles and 32% are sacks.
Get out of your Terry ownership if at all possible. He’s priced right next to a 2025 mid 2nd, and I’d be sending out mass offers to my league to try and get this return.
MICHAEL PITTTMAN JR., INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (WR33, RNK 78)
Let’s play the yards per route run game again. Among all colts receivers with 12+ routes run, Michael Pittman ranks 5th in yards per route run with 1.00. The guys in front of him are Ashton Dulin, Alec Pierce, Mo Alie-Cox, and Jonathan Taylor.
Anthony Richardson did look pretty bad this past Sunday, so I could see some excuses for Pittman. The main issue for Richardson appears to be accuracy. But Pittman’s catchable target percentage through two games is 86.7%, which is second highest to only Jonathan Taylor of the five names I listed above. This also ranks 23rd/64 among all receivers with 50+routes.
The good news? Well, Pittman holds an 85.2% route share and a 28.3% target share through two weeks.
- 26 Receiving Yards per game
- .038 First downs per route run
- 7 catches on 15 targets
- Expected Fantasy Points per game: 12.4 vs. Actual: 6.1
I’m burying the lede here. The most concerning part of Pittman’s start to 2024 is that this is all without a healthy Josh Downs.
Absent Downs on the field in 2023, Pittman’s fantasy points per route run was 0.61 compared to 0.39 with Downs on the field. Downs was considered a 50/50 game-time decision on Sunday, so I think it’s safe to expect he will be back this week. What will that mean for Pittman? I certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when we find out.
Recommendation: Sell
It may be over for Michael Pittman. He’s ranked one spot above Chris Godwin, which would be highway robbery if you could get away with a deal straight up. He’s right around a 2026 late first, and similarly to Terry, I’d be firing offers for 26 1sts to anyone who would respond.
He’s also ranked slightly above Davante Adams, Joe Mixon, Brian Robinson, and Keon Coleman. I’d take any of those guys over Pittman.
CHRIS OLAVE, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (WR18, RNK 44)
Olave has fallen 13 spots to current price, just above DK Metcalf and Zay Flowers and below Brandon Aiyuk.
Through two weeks, Olave is being alpha’d by Rashid Shaheed.
- Target Share: 22.5%>20.0%
- Air Yard Share: 43.9%>24.4%
- Receptions: 7>6
- Receiving Yards: 169>92
- Yards per Route Run: 5.28>2.88
Rashid Shaheed is fun, but Olave is a superstar.
The New Orleans Saints have 91 points through two weeks! There is no need to panic here. The Saints and Derek Carr looking incredible is a good thing.
Olave also got downed on the 1/2 yard-line this past Sunday, and overall looked like his dominant self. This was the difference between a middling 12.8 and solid 18.8 Fantasy Points.
Recommendation: Buy
As Scott mentions, this is an obvious buy-low opportunity. I would suggest you check in with the Olave manager to see if there is any semblance of doubt regarding the 24-year-old former Ohio State Buckeye. He’s priced in between an early to mid 25 First, and unless you know for a fact you are the 1.01, I would definitely be sending that out.
DIONTAE JOHNSON, CAROLINA PANTHERS (WR58, RNK 163)
Among all receivers with 50+ routes, Diontae Johnson ranks 63rd/64 in catchable target percentage at 50%. Only Courtland Sutton (37.5%) is worse.
The Red Rifle Andy Dalton is here to save the day! (pls bro)
Let’s start with the bad:
- 0.68 Yards per Route Run
- 17 yards per game
- 4.2 Fantasy points per game vs. 11.3 expected fantasy points per game
Diontae leads this “team” with only a 21.1% target share. However, if you only look at the first three quarters of each game, when the Panthers were not certifiably dead yet, his target share is 33.3%, his first read target share is 41.7%, and he ran 90.5% of the routes.
I firmly believe that Diontae Johnson is meant to be the focus of this offense.
Outside of his talent, Dave Canales literally told us this in July:
Recommendation: Buy
Let me preface this by saying that Diontae Johnson has been a target of mine in fantasy football for years. I am biased, but that’s because this guy rules.
I don’t fully blame you if you think Andy Dalton stinks and this team is ruined. But, I would be remiss if I did not pound the table to buy Diontae at WR58 (!) prices. He should be fed with Dalton at the helm, and I would be willing to pay no more than 125th overall prices to acquire. For WRs, this line is Amari Cooper (WR46). That being said, trade McLaurin (WR44) for Diontae+.
JEROME FORD, CLEVELAND BROWNS (RB34, RNK 131)
This is a difficult backfield to analyze; It was a tale of two weeks for Ford.
- Snap Share: 72.9%
- Rushing Attempt Share: 63.2%
- Routes: 35
- Target Share: 15.6%
- Expected Fantasy Points: 20.8
The problem is that D’Onta Foreman played a single snap in week 1.
Week 2: Jerome Ford vs. D’Onta Foreman
- Snap Share: 41.5% (Ford) vs. 38.5% (Foreman)
- Rushing Attempt Share: 24.1% vs. 48.3%
- Routes: 10 vs. 4
- Target Share: 5.9% vs. 2.9%
- Expected Fantasy Points: 6.7 vs. 12.2
This kind of drastic change from weeks 1-2 is worrisome. I think Ford is more talented than D’Onta Foreman, but I I know that neither of them holds a candle to Nick Chubb, who may be returning sooner than the market seems to think:
Recommendation: Hold/Sell
I don’t want to be holding onto Ford through the Week 3 matchup against the Giants. I could see both backs dominating in this game, but I’m a bit fearful of what the splits are going to look like. I don’t think we can expect to see anything close to the Week 1 usage.
I’d look to move Ford+ for guys not too far ahead of him, Aaron Jones, Bucky Irving, and Najee Harris. He’s priced above Josh Downs and Quentin Johnston, and I’d be willing to take a swing on either of those guys ahead of Ford.
Honorable Mentions
- Bryce Young (RIP)
- Rachaad White
- Isiah Pacheco
- Courtland Sutton
- Travis Kelce
