This weekly series analyzes the ever-changing Dynasty fantasy football landscape, aiming to stay more in sync with the market than your league rivals. We will find the right balance between overreacting and underreacting each week to provide the best possible value to our teams. Those who act too quickly or too slowly to what this NFL season tells them each week will see their Dynasty rosters weaken compared to ours.
In Dynasty, we care about the Why with regard to player production on a weekly basis because, ultimately, we want to make decisions on players based on what their careers, or at least a portion of their careers, will look like, not just the rest of this NFL season. Player value in the long term is far more important to us than short-term production.
Unless specified otherwise, Rankings are referenced from KeepTradeCut (“KTC”) for SuperFlex (2 QB) Leagues. I will list players by position rank, then overall rank (E.g. WR4, RNK 11)
Please reach out to me on Twitter (@Lboyle_FF) or Reddit (u/DortcherChamber) if you have any questions!
See:
Week 4 Notes
We are almost a quarter of the way through this NFL season.
The Dynasty GOAT, Adam Harstad, often talks about how after Week 4, results to date are just as predictive as preseason ADP for redraft. Essentially, if you gave someone who lived under a rock just the preseason ADP, and you gave your grandma just the player rankings and results to date, they would do equally well in drafting fantasy football teams for the rest of the season (assuming they are equally talented drafters). He proved this here.
I keep this in mind every year to avoid overreacting to results to date and to remember where we stood on players preseason. You should, too! We spend months determining preseason ADP, so it makes sense that you shouldn’t be so quick to throw it out the window. Combining both season results to date and preseason ADP gives you the best chance of predicting player rankings for the rest of the season.
TRENDING UP
JUSTIN FIELDS, PITTSBURGH STEELERS (QB21, RNK 85)
Justin Fields has looked like a completely different QB than we saw in Chicago. Over the first couple weeks, Fields was game managing well, but the fantasy points weren’t hitting yet. Now, the fantasy points are flowing.
Fields on Sunday:
- 22/34 for 312 Passing Yards and 1 TD
- 10 Rushes for 55 Yards and 2 TDs
Through four weeks, Fields has thrown for 830 yards and has two games of 50+ yards on the ground. The more comfortable he becomes in this offense, the more I think we will see him take advantage of his legs.
Recommendation: Buy
Last week, I planned on writing up Fields until I saw Jayden Daniels play on Monday Night Football. Few QBs in the league match Fields’s rushing ability and upside, and his weekly ceiling is as high as any QB.
This feels like classic Mike Tomlin, developing a player and finding ways to put them in the best possible position. Fields is still priced well behind a 2025 late 1st, and I want to be buying wherever I can.
JAYDEN REED, GREEN BAY PACKERS, (WR17, RNK 40)
Jayden Reed looks like a superstar. What he really looks like is a new and improved Deebo Samuel.
Reed now averages almost 20 fantasy points per game in his last 10 games with Jordan Love. In Week 1, I told you to add him to your watchlist and try to buy him when Malik Willis starts. I hope you did!
The Packers’ offense will continue to thrive with one of the league’s sharpest minds, Matt LaFleur.
Recommendation: Hold
Perhaps the window has closed, as Reed has climbed over 10 spots on KTC in the last 24 hours alone! Currently behind Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr., I don’t feel comfortable listing Reed as a pure buy. Those league mates who are less in tune with the market price might be willing to sell where Reed was just a week ago, around the 50-60th ranked player. It’s always worth price-checking with your league mates to try and snag a discount.
DERRICK HENRY, BALTIMORE RAVENS (RB15, RNK 74)
The King not only gets better as the season goes on but in games where his team is leading, averaging 22.5 Fantasy Points per game in wins vs. 12.3 in losses from 2018-2023. The Ravens just dominated the Bills on Sunday Night Football, and their defense seems to be clicking for the first time this year.
Recommendation: Hold
Despite how awesome Henry is, I cannot in good conscience recommend buying an almost 31-year-old Running Back. However, it isn’t unreasonable to project a top 6 finish from Henry. It’s doubtful that a non-contender has Derrick Henry still on their team, but if they do, reach out to them.
T.J. HOCKENSON, MINNESOTA VIKINGS, (TE6, RNK 88)
This offense looks ridiculously good, and Hockenson is primed to feast whenever he returns.
In 2023, Hock averaged a 76.4% route share, 22.9% target share, and 64 receiving yards per game. In 2024, those numbers rank 4th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively among ALL TEs with at least 50 routes (35 qualifiers). Hockenson had ten games of 8+ targets last year.
The TE position is in shambles, particularly because of the lack of TD equity. The Vikings lead the league in passing TDs. Gaining an edge with a TE would be massive, so Hockenson remains one of the best values in Dynasty.
Recommendation: Buy
Hock is a 27-year-old TE on a McShanny offense that looks like the best in the league. K.I.S.S.
GEORGE PICKENS, PITTSBURGH STEELERS (WR23, RNK 53)
I guess it’s Steelers week for me. I came away from the Colts game, who, granted, aren’t the strongest defense, extremely impressed with this offense. Pickens, in particular, has looked incredible through 4 weeks.
Despite playing in Arthur Smith’s run-first offense, Pickens is 11th in the league in receiving yards.
Dank Pickens Stats (Among receivers with 75+ Routes (98 qualifiers)):
- Target Share: 26.6% (8th)
- First Read Target Share: 35.3% (5th)
- First Downs per Route Run: 11.1% (16th)
- Receiving Yards: 284 (11th)
- Yards per Route Run: 2.63 (12th)
If you remove Week 2 where Patrick Surtain shadowed him, Pickens ranks 4th in YPRR and 6th in Receiving Yards. He would also rank 9th overall in A.S.S. (Average Separation Score).
With some TDs to go along with this production, I doubt Pickens would be ranked outside the top 50 for dynasty assets.
Recommendation: Buy
Reminder: Buy talented players in Dynasty!
There is no doubt in my mind that Pickens is extremely talented. I stand by that this catch by Pickens was superior to the OBJ catch:
I want to buy Pickens on all teams where I am doubtful of my ability to contend. If a contender has Pickens, you may be able to trade a Chris Godwin straight up. Trade whatever win-now pieces you have for Pickens.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Kenneth Walker
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Xavier Legette
- Tucker Kraft
TRENDING DOWN
KYLE PITTS , ATLANTA FLACONS (TE6, RNK 99)
Sigh…
Pitts does not have a single game over three catches or 60 yards this season. His best game (11.6 Fantasy Points) came in Week 1, where he got a free TD on broken coverage. What’s worse:
Then again, stats are for losers:
We are running out of excuses for Pitts.
Recommendation: Sell
This Summer, Pitts was going as the 50th overall player in startups, only a handful of spots below Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, and Devonta Smith. Boy, it would have been wise to sell then. I get that you probably don’t want to look to sell off of a 0 point performance, but things look really bleak. I’d be very comfortable getting out around market price if possible.
D.J. MOORE, CHICAGO BEARS (WR27, RNK 61)
Last week, I dug into Shane Waldron and the Bears coaching staff for being unserious and simply bad, so I won’t beat a dead horse. But, this offense has been criminally bad despite their exciting receiving corps. Moore’s body language has been extremely discouraging so far; I don’t know if there is a player in the league that looks more pissed off more often.
DJ Moore Stat Lines 2024:
- 5 receptions for 36 yards
- 6 receptions for 53 yards
- 8 receptions for 78 yards
- 3 receptions for 22 yards and a TD
Moore is averaging 11.9 Fantasy Points per Game and is currently the WR27.
Recommendation: Sell
If you were drafting him at his 7th round price of WR19 this summer, you were hoping to see far better. Given that he still remains close to this summer price, I’m looking to get him off my team if possible. Players priced similarly include George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Jonathon Brooks, and Drake Maye.
TRAVIS KELCE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (TE11, RNK 135)
What has changed was the tragic injury to one of my guys in Rashee Rice. Patrick Mahomes really threw an interception, saw Rashee force a fumble to get the ball back, and then took out his knee. Mahomes must have seen he and Rashee’s dynasty values coming closer and closer together.
Travis Kelce in one game without Rashee Rice vs. Weeks 1-3 Average
- 91.2% Route Share vs. 69.2%
- 39.1% Air Yard Share vs. 18.8%
- 31.0% Target Share vs. 12.0%
- 46.7% First Read Target Share vs. 14.5%
- 7 Receptions vs 8 Receptions TOTAL
- 89 Receiving Yards vs. 69 yards TOTAL
- 2.87 Yards per Route Run vs. 0.96
Recommendation: Buy
I have no idea how long Rashee will be sidelined. With no confirmation of a torn ACL yet, things are looking better now than they did immediately following Sunday’s contest. However, I know that Travis Kelce managers have been spiraling the past three weeks, and this could be a great opportunity to buy a rental at the barren position of TE if you are contending.
GARRETT WILSON, NEW YORK JETS (WR10, RNK 26)
While I don’t think this Sunday’s game should dictate anything you do with Wilson, there is no hiding that this season has been disappointing thus far. Yes, Sunday’s conditions were treacherous, and Wilson faced the aforementioned Patrick Surtain shadow. But, how much longer are we comfortable making excuses for Wilson?
I was bullish on Wilson coming into this season. In 2023, his 45.8% air yard share, 27.1% target share, and 61.3 receiving yards per game with league-worst QB play left me chomping at the bit to see him play with Aaron Rodgers. The next closest marks for his teammates were 18.3%, 13.8%, and 36.5 respectively.
This year, Garrett Wilson vs. Allen Lazard:
- Air Yards Share: 34.0% (Wilson) vs. 23.5% (Lazard)
- Target Share: 25.0% vs. 17.6%
- Receiving Yards per Game: 47.8 vs. 51.5
Mike Williams is also starting to ramp up from his injury. In Week 4, he played on a season-high 58.8% of the routes and outgained both Wilson and Lazard with 67 receiving yards.
I would say that I expect the offense to get better… but I really don’t know if I do. I don’t feel very comfortable putting my faith in Nathaniel Hackett‘s offense. This means it’s all up to Aaron Rodgers who trusts his boy Allen Lazard and was trying to recruit Davante Adams all summer.
Recommendation: Sell/Hold
I want out on Wilson, especially before any chance of a Davante Adams trade. I do think he is very talented, but I am beginning to realize that he is not in the upper echelon of Elite WRs. Give me A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers, etc, instead.
It’s possible that I’m overreacting to a small sample, but again, I ask how long we will make excuses for Wilson. How long until the market takes a look at the bigger, not so pretty picture? Maybe I’m reacting to a far larger sample of Wilson getting the volume but not the results.
I still list “hold” as an option for the Wilson truthers out there that think this is his rock bottom. There are some players we have to live and die for, and Wilson is certainly one of them for a large majority.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (RB10, RNK 48)
Time to Panic!
In July, I wrote about why you should fade CMC at RB2, ADP16:
“What’s the worst-case scenario? As an older running back, the possibility of him falling off a cliff is ever-present. But, more likely, it would be another injury. I’m not big into “injury-prone” speak, but if he suffers any kind of significant injury this year, his value will nosedive. For multiple years in a row, people were (wrongfully) fading CMC because they thought he was injury-prone. If there is any significant injury this year, the masses will be screaming that he is a 28-year-old RB made of glass.”
Here we are in October, RB10, 48th overall, and I’m no longer thinking “fade.” As for the two-legged Achilles Tendinitis, I’m not any more concerned than I was a week ago. Mostly because of this great intel from Jeff Mueller:
Recommendation: Buy
Upside Wins Championships. Christian McCaffrey is a power law player who is probably the GOAT of Fantasy Football. If you have a strong to dominant team, buy Christian McCaffrey. I’m not a doctor, but the injury docs I trust are telling me to trade for CMC. That’s really all I need to hear to make the case that you should probably be trying to get a proven league-winning player when he’s almost fallen outside of the top 50 in dynasty assets.
I am not going to tell you this comes without risk, but the reward far outweighs the risk in fantasy football. Take a chance; If he’s fully healthy for the fantasy football playoffs, that payoff is astronomical.
Honorable Mentions
- Zach Charbonnet
- Najee Harris
- Tyreek Hill
- Keenan Allen
- Luke Musgrave