Picture it: draft day 2026. Everyone gathered around a giant, ostentatious draft board. Ideally poolside. Livations are flowing, vibes are high.
You just drafted Jonathan Taylor in Round 1, locking in a workhorse as your anchor RB. You look down the draft board and see Nico Collins and DeVonta Smith waiting for you.
Now, despite your best efforts, the rest of your leaguemates are curmudgeonly and just finished telling neighbor kids to get off their lawns.
You tried to convince them to embrace SuperFlex, but they refused. C’est la vie. As you put Smith’s sticker under your name and do a victorious fist bump, you hear a sound.
“Well, well, well… what have we here?!?!?”
The voice of Mr. Oogie Boogie echoes. A chill runs down your spine as you remember what awaits you. The RB dead zone is here, and you need another horse to saddle alongside Taylor.
RB DEAD ZONE: FACT OR FICTION?!
All kidding aside, it’s a fair question to ask: is the running back dead zone still a thing?
The definition remains nebulous, but for years, running backs often drafted between rounds three and six carried inherently more risk and often led to diminished returns.
Starting around 2023, savvy fantasy managers would often punt running backs down draft boards like the Cleveland Browns offense.
It’s just a fact that wide receivers have historically scored more fantasy points in those rounds than running backs.
As the data above suggests, from 2018-2022 the RB dead zone was very distinctive.
Between rounds three and six, there’s a clear dip in fantasy production vs. draft cost for RBs, as shown by a nearly parabolic drop in production vs. a more linear WR slide.
This isn’t a death sentence to running backs by any means.
Favoring wide receivers, tight ends, and even quarterbacks more heavily in SuperFlex formats has only pushed more valuable running backs down.
A pivot is merely an opportunity for the shrewd to maximize leverage.
“If opportunity doesn’t knock, build a door.” — Milton Berle.
Being able to see through offseason narratives and find value where it lies is the key to safely navigating the dead zone.
Over the previous three years, there is no clear successive advantage to drafting WRs vs. RBs between rounds three through six.
In fact, between rounds four through six, fantasy production oscillates before becoming more linear.
This raises the question: does the dead zone still exist, or is it like the monster that lives under your bed and swaying your fantasy opinions?
RB DEAD ZONE TARGETS
The trick to navigating the dead zone lies in leveraging volume and a consistent floor with game-breaking upside.
Should an injury bounce your way, or maybe a player gets off to a strong start early, having that as a complimentary asset is a game-breaking advantage.
To put yourself in the best chance to conquer the dead zone, consider targeting these three players.
JEREMIYAH LOVE, RB, ARIZONA CARDINALS
The narrative surrounding Love may have gotten a little out of hand.
Shiny new toy syndrome can often blow up a player’s fantasy worth. Love is a tremendous prospect. But the term generational has been thrown around too loosely.
He’s obviously expected to be a bedrock of the Cardinals team, after being selected with top 3 draft capital. And why not?
He possesses a rare blend of speed, pass-catching chops, and an elite ability to force missed tackles.
Love is being drafted around the middle of the third round right now.
With backfield pests like the corpse of James Conner, Trey Benson, and Tyler Allgeier, there’s a lot of mouths to feed.
Allgeier is famous for being a high-value touch merchant, dating back to his days in Atlanta with Bijan Robinson.
In 2023, despite scoring only 8 TDs, Robinson ranked 7th in expected fantasy points scored while coming in as the RB8.
Despite not turning over the backfield to the clearly superior Robinson, he still managed to command 272 touches and turn that into 1,463 yards from scrimmage.
Conner or Benson is likely not going to be on this team, and the other is going to be relegated to a sparse role.
It would just be criminal roster management to keep all four of these backs on the active roster.
So why is Love a safe pick in the third round, next to guys like Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams?
Targets, targets, targets.
Since taking over in Week 6 for Kyler Murray, Brissett targeted the RB position on 20% of his passes (T-10th).
Love is in line to command 70+ targets and will likely be on the field a ton. Do you project the Cardinals to be leading much this season?
Yeah, me neither.
Since 2020, there have been 30 RBs who have gotten at least 70 targets.
Of those that have received at least 220 rush attempts, the worst fantasy finish was Ezekiel Elliott in 2020, whose 207.7 fp/g would have ranked as the RB16.
The path for Love to return value is clear to see. As is the path to smash ADP and be a league-winner.
Draft Love in the third round if you get the chance.
JAVONTE WILLIAMS, RB, DALLAS COWBOYS
The hero of the dead zone and arguably one of the most valuable picks in fantasy football last year, Williams is getting a little bit of the respect he deserves.
He’s going as the RB17, with a lot of questions surrounding his high touchdown output in 2025.
Last season, Williams showed out, putting up more than 1,300 YFS and 13 TDs.
Sometimes it’s as simple as tracking opportunity, meshing it with touchdown equity, and capitalizing when everyone else hyper-fixates on deficiencies.
In 2025, Williams ranked 5th in red zone attempts and third in goal-line attempts. This culminated in an 88th-percentile EPA/rush-attempt score.
He saw at least 18 opportunities in 10 of his 16 games last season, including at least 20 in 8 of 16.
Williams also was targeted at least three times in 10 of 16 despite Dallas ranking near the bottom of the league (T-30th) in target rate to the RB position (14%).
“This guy is an adult. He is very mature. He’s very smart. I’m really into guys who are great teammates, and that dude is a great teammate. … His game is extremely well-rounded. … He’s certainly one of my favorites,” Cowboys offensive coordinator Klayton Adams said in an interview.
What reason do we have to think Williams won’t see at least 275-300 opportunities after seeing 303 in 2025?
Williams is a fourth-round league winner surrounded by high-risk WRs like Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Ladd McConkey.
D’ANDRE SWIFT, RB, CHICAGO BEARS
Probably the least sexy name on this list, Swift provides probably the safest floor and is arguably the best bang for your buck of the three.
But… Kyle Monangai showed out in his game without Swift in the backfield.
Boy did he! But that was against the Bengals, and he’s shown little to no upside in the passing game.
Last season, Swift paced the league in rate of carries to go for more yards than expected while ranking 12th in the league in explosive run rate (8.52%).
Meanwhile, Monangai ranked 32nd of 49 in yards after contact per attempt (2.95) and forced a missed tackle on just under 15% of his attempts. With little pass-catching upside?
Head coach Ben Johnson spent the offseason hyping up Swift, who heads arguably the most lucrative backfield in the game.
“He’s a dynamic player. I’ve known that about him since he came into the league… So, is he capable of more? Absolutely. He absolutely is. He’s a vital part of what we do here,” Johnson said of Swift.
Monangai started earning more bread in Week 6, seeing double-digit rush attempts in 7/12 games.
You would think Swift’s numbers would go down in that span, right? Well… maybe not.
While a dip in targets is concerning, the underlying theme is not. Swift and the offense clicked. It just took a little time.
Swift saw the second-highest yards per reception of his career (8.8) in season one with Johnson.
With a top-3 OL, according to Fantasy Points, and year two with Johnson singing his praises, why is Swift going as the RB20 after finishing as a top 15 RB in 2025?
It’s like printing value and wins in fantasy football.
Honorable mention targets: David Montgomery, Quinshon Judkins, Kyren Williams
