This article will be part of a weekly series examining the current Dynasty landscape and trying to be more in tune with the market than our league mates. We will find the right balance between overreacting and underreacting each week to provide the best possible value to our teams. Those who act too quickly or too slowly to what this NFL season tells them each week will see their Dynasty rosters weaken compared to ours!
In Dynasty, we care about the Why with regard to player production on a weekly basis because, ultimately, we want to make decisions on players based on what their careers, or at least a portion of their careers, will look like, not just the rest of this NFL season. Player value in the long term is far more important to us than short-term production.
Unless specified otherwise, ADP’s are referenced from Dynasty Data Lab for SuperFlex (2 QB) Leagues. I will also reference ADPs and rankings from KeepTradeCut (“KTC”). KTC offers more updated rankings while Dynasty Data Lab shows us where players ranked before each Week.
Week 1 Notes
I did not expect choosing which players to write up would be difficult. If you are wondering why a guy is not on here, it’s likely just because I simply do not have the time to write up every significant player from each game. I chose to write up most guys who qualified the (majority of the) three parameters here:
- Had the biggest blowup games
- Value moved the most
- Market Inefficiency
This does not include some really low-stock guys who improved/declined drastically but remained at low prices (E.g., Tyler Johnson). It should get easier to narrow down who to write up as the season goes on.
A much-needed reminder: It’s not even Week 2 yet, so don’t panic. If you are planning on contending and freaking out because Joe Burrow, Chris Olave, and Mark Andrews ruined your week, just take a deep breath. Just because I think a player is a “buy” or a “sell” does not mean you need to take it to the extreme. There’s a reason I list more “buy” recs than “sell.” Fantasy owners see “sell” and panic, while they see “buy” and just message some dude in their league to see if they can get a fair price.
Please reach out to me on Twitter (@Lboyle_FF) or on Reddit (u/DortcherChamber) if you have any questions! (pls ignore my post about buying Daniel Jones on Reddit ty)
Trending Up
RASHEE RICE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, (WR27, ADP 68)
Are we really surprised? I wrote him down here before Week 1 even began.
Rashee Rice looked like an elite target earner in Thursday Night’s matchup with the Baltimore Ravens. And the numbers tell the same story:
From Week 12 2023 to Week 1 2024, Rashee Rice has been crushing in a Patrick Mahomes offense. It’s important to remember that this is a continuation of WR1 usage, not a Week 1 outlier.
The Chiefs ran a materially lower 50 offensive snaps on Thursday compared to their 2023 regular season average of 60 snaps per game. Even if you think Rashee will lose some opportunity to Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, or Hollywood Brown, it’s important to note that there is more opportunity to be had for the entire offense.
Plus, targets are earned in the NFL, not awarded due to situation. Any concerns regarding target competition are insignificant. Fantasy football players previously doubted Amon-Ra St. Brown’s target-earning prowess for the same reason.
With the potential suspension moving further away, it looks like Rashee Rice was an absolute steal based on startup and redraft ADP. I can only hope that the main thing people remember from this game was Xavier Worthy and his TDs. Ideally, Rashee Rice Dynasty owners are too concerned with Xavier and Hollywood to realize they are sitting on a gold mine.
Recommendation: Buy
I am willing to rank Rashee at WR15 right behind Brandon Aiyuk. I think this is fairly conservative, despite being a whole 3 rounds higher than his current startup ADP. This is roughly equivalent to an early to mid 2025 first. It would not be surprising if he ends closer to the second or third round of startups by end of season. Rashee is currently ranked at WR16 and 38th overall on KTC right around Rome Odunze, Trey McBride, and Brock Purdy. I would move each of those players for Rashee in a heartbeat.
ISAIAH LIKELY, BALTIMORE RAVENS (TE19, ADP 150)
The top story from TNF was the 24-year-old Ravens TE exploding for 9 receptions for 111 yards and a TD. Likely was also inches away from securing a game-tying second TD.
Not to mention, this performance came with a down game for Mark Andrews, claiming just 2 receptions for 14 yards on two targets. I’m sure the reactions and expectations for Likely and Andrews will be tempered… Isaiah Likely is ranked at TE6 (!!) and 83rd overall on KTC. Mark Andrews? TE8.
Just because they both have “TE” next to their name does not mean that only one of them can succeed. It’s rare to have two productive TEs in an offense, but the Ravens passing options are limited to these two, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman.
Recommendation: Hold
Unless you think Likely is untalented and this was a one-time thing, I really wouldn’t want to be selling. I would probably need a TE5 equivalent price to sell, which is roughly between a mid-2025 1st and a late 2025 first (which is insane!).
I have no idea what next week looks like, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets another 7+ target game. In that case, what happens to his value? I would list him as a buy because I believe in the talent, but good luck paying anything short of a 2025 Late 1st. That’s too steep for me, but at this point, I think I am willing to buy for a 2025 Early to mid 2nd.
While I do think this usage was extremely bullish for Likely, I’m not panicking on Mark Andrews. He was double-covered on the highest percentage of his routes on TNF compared to any games from his 2021-2023 seasons. I think the real buy here is Mark Andrews at the TE8 price. See if you can find some panicking Mandrews owner to get a pretty crazy discount on a 29-year-old TE in a Lamar Jackson offense who has been elite on a per-game basis for the past few years and even finished as the overall TE1 in 2022.
SAQUON BARKLEY, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, (RB7, ADP 35)
The Saquon revenge tour is off and running. All those nerds who cited efficiency stats, the tush push, or his age as reasons to fade him should be stuffed in lockers. Dudes a baller – plain and simple. Maybe it really was as easy as “Giants suck. Eagles good. Saquon Rules.”
I couldn’t not mention Barkley here after an absurd 24-109-2 and 2-23-1 stat line. This came as a product of elite usage:
If you watched the game, Barkley looked like a top 5 talented back in this league who now gets to play in far better game scripts with a significantly better offensive line. Faders (like myself) are indeed in shambles.
What are some (coping mechanisms) potential reasons to temper expectations?
- The Packers ranked top 10 in schedule-adjusted rushing fantasy points per game in 2023
- The field in Brazil looked legitimately horrible
- Jalen Hurts had 11 rushing attempts for 33 yards
Recommendation: Hold/Sell
Look, I faded him all off-season in both best ball and dynasty. I should say to sell high because Week 1 shouldn’t matter much. Right? At the same time, I think watching him on my TV and seeing the usage data has me very nervous about my fade and fairly confident that he could pay off on his RB7 price. Obviously, I think if week 1 has shown you that you are more than likely not contending this year, I would be looking to get him off my roster ASAP.
I don’t want to pay this steep a price for a 27-year-old RB after he scores three touchdowns in Week 1. I would be pretty comfortable selling him high at RB6 prices (roughly around a 2025 early 1st). If you could move him for De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, or Trevor Lawrence, for example, I would. If that doesn’t sit right with you, don’t do it!
If you are contending, I think it’s completely fine if you want to hold and ride the production wave. This could be a truly special season for him.
COOPER KUPP, LOS ANGELES RAMS, (WR34, ADP 77)
Cooper Kupp had 21 (!!!) Targets on SNF. Nobody came even close to that mark this week. This was also tied for the highest reception game of his career. Granted, this came in a game where Puka Nacua came in, banged up, and left early due to injury. But, Puka Nacua has been placed on IR.
I don’t know why we would not expect to see a ridiculous target share only continue. What about when Puka comes back? That’s the golden question. Based on how Kupp looked in this game, I am going to side with the redraft GOAT in predicting the rest of his season:
The best fantasy football WR second only to Jerry freaking Rice should not be underestimated. I may regret this, but I am ranking Cooper Kupp ahead of Puka Nacua for the rest of this season (redraft only).
Recommendation: It Depends
For the most part, you are likely contending if you are holding Kupp. If not, sell him in the next couple of weeks when contenders gain a clearer picture of their ability to win a championship this year. And when he puts more games together with a billion targets. KTC has him ranked 77th overall at WR32. He is a rental in dynasty, but this is far too cheap for what he can offer you. As we have seen before, Kupp has legitimate WR1 overall upside in this offense.
It may not be easy to buy, as the most likely scenario is that a contender holds Kupp. If not, be relentless in messaging your league mate to get Kupp at a price at/under a 2025 late first. I am usually not in favor of rentals in dynasty, but at this price, given Kupp’s ceiling, I am willing to pay it.
JOE MIXON, HOUSTON TEXANS (RB18, ADP 78)
Joe Mixon is back! I have been banging the table for Mixon this summer, so I’m thrilled to see this Week 1 performance. Despite playing with one of the best Rookie QBs of all time in CJ Stroud, Joe Mixon led all backs in rushing attempts this week with 30.
He made the most of these 30 carries, turning them into 159 yards and a score. This usage was good for 24.3 Expected Fantasy Points and Mixon delivered above expectation with 26.8 Fantasy Points. Averaging 5.3 yards per carry in your first start on a brand-new offense is extremely bullish. Not to mention, this offense has an absolutely elite supporting cast, and OC Bobby Slowik still gave Mixon more touches than Stroud had pass attempts.
Recommendation: Buy
Mixon played 100% of the snaps and got over 90% of the carries on a CJ Strou-led offense. By all accounts, he is looking like a league winner. He has risen up to RB16 and the 91st overall player on KTC. He’s ranked below a 2026 late 1st, and I would be willing to pay a similar price at this point. I don’t anticipate this train stopping anytime soon. Sell Josh Jacobs (current RB14) for Mixon+ and thank me later.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (RB 20, ADP 90)
Rhamondre Stevenson looked awesome on Sunday. He finished his day with 25 rushes for 120 yards and a TD on the ground as the Patriots upset the Bengals and ruined most people’s survivor pool entries. Rham has long been a favorite of mine – I have always been a big believer in his talent. Back when I only had two dynasty teams, he was the only player I rostered in both leagues.
The seventh-highest paid RB in the NFL got some of the best usage in his career:
Recommendation: Hold
As a Commanders fan, Antonio Gibson does not concern me in the slightest. I think Rham is set up to be a bell cow in this offense. How valuable is this role in a Patriots offense that isn’t terribly exciting? That remains to be seen. Rhamondre only had 3 catches on Sunday, but we could potentially see more come with a negative game script. Regardless, his usage and efficiency was super bullish. He is currently KTC’s RB17 and 92nd player overall, and I think this price is extremely fair. We will be monitoring him throughout the season! If you can trade Rachaad White (RB15) for Rhamondre+ then we smash accept.
JAMESON WILLIAMS, DETROIT LIONS (WR47, ADP 118)
Jamo stans have never been more excited to hop on Fantasy Twitter and Reddit. This is what they have been screaming at everyone all summer for. Finally, the breakout game. There has been such a steady drumbeat all summer for Jamo, so we really shouldn’t be surprised.
I’m happy for Jamo and all of his loyal soldiers on Twitter and Reddit, but I honestly don’t know what to make of this game. Williams had a 32.1% Target Share, 4.32 Yards per Route Run, and a 43% First Read Target Share. What in the world? Amon-Ra St. Brown, meanwhile, had three catches for 13 yards.
Recommendation: I don’t know
I couldn’t not write him up, but I don’t have much else to say. Good luck buying him. I don’t think this will be the last time he goes for over 100 and a score. However, I do think this will be the last time this season the Sun God has only a few catches for less than 15 yards. Williams jumped 24 spots on KTC right behind Terry McLaurin, and I think I would probably sell Terry for him. However, he is ranked ahead of Chris Godwin, and I think I would much rather have Godwin. Good players typically don’t take this long to break out, and I don’t have a great read on this, so I don’t want to give any recommendations one way or the other.
JAYDEN REED, GREEN BAY PACKERS (WR36, ADP 81)
The Jordan Love injury somewhat complicates things. On KTC, Reed moved up eight spots to WR28, which is way too cheap. I still think we want to wait and see how he looks without Love before making a move. I expect the whole offense to struggle with Malik Willis at the helm, so maybe we should try to buy in the next couple of weeks after some disappointing outings. Regardless, it’s worth sending out some feelers to the Reed owner as soon as possible to see if they think this game was an outlier.
The concern with or without Love leading the offense is the number of mouths to feed at receiver. I hope Jayden Reed Dynasty owners are more concerned about this than myself.
Recommendation: Add him to your Watchlist
I firmly believe in Reed’s talent. I dimly recall Matt Waldman comparing him to having a talent floor of Santana Moss with Stefon Diggs’s ceiling on his RSP podcast. I think it would be difficult to buy at this point for anything short of mid-to-high-end WR2 prices. If you can get him for mid-to-high-end WR3 prices, I’d buy without hesitation. Either way, keep an eye on Reed in the next few weeks with no Love.
Rookie Receivers – Dank Stats
What a great weekend for top drafted Rookie WRs not named Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja’Lynn Polk, and Rome Odunze! Instead of choosing which guys to write up, I compiled some dank stat tweets about each of the rookie pass catchers who impressed me on Sunday. I’d love to buy all of the guys whose names I list below, but it can be really difficult to buy a rookie who looked good in week 1 from guys who just drafted them. That being said, I’m willing to pay a premium for each of them.
Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, and Adonai Mitchell:
Brock Bowers:
Honorable Mentions
- Anthony Richardson
- Baker Mayfield
- Bijan Robinson
- Brian Robinson
- De’Von Achane
- Kenneth Walker
- Tony Pollard
- J.K. Dobbins
- Jerome Ford
- Zay Flowers
- A.J. Brown/Devonta Smith
- Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Jalen McMillan
- Stefon Diggs/Nico Collins
- Tyler Lockett
- Keenan Allen (not fat)
- Quentin Johnston (not dead)
- Juwaun Johnson
- Colby Parkinson
Trending Down
ZAMIR WHITE, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (RB23, ADP 96)
Recommendation: Sell
He’s currently priced around a mid 2025 2nd on KTC. I doubt you could swing it, but he’s around the same value as Aaron Jones, Jaylen Wright, Ricky Pearsall, and Josh Downs, and I would be smashing accept on any of those guys.
TRAVIS ETIENNE, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (RB6, ADP 34)
Etienne was a player I was somewhat excited about coming into the season. I debated putting him into my Early-Round RBs to Fade article, but I thought he had the upside, youth, and offensive environment to thrive.
Doug Pederson did tell us that Tank Bigsby would have a bigger role this year, but last year he said the same thing. And Tank Bigsby was legitimately terrible in 2023; he had 50 rushing attempts for just 132 yards!
This Sunday, Etienne went 12 for 44. Bigsby went 12 for 73. Not to mention, Etienne fumbled near the goal line to swing the game in Miami’s favor.
Recommendation: Hold/Sell
I’m not going to completely panic on Etienne yet. He’s definitely going to be a guy to monitor the usage for next week, but we certainly would have liked to see a stronger outing in week 1 with much less Tank Bigsby. Etienne did get three targets on 12 routes and scored a TD on the ground, so fantasy owners may not be aware of how bearish this usage looks. Etienne is RB8 on KTC, between a 2025 early and mid 1st round pick, and I would be comfortable moving Etienne for this price. Specifically, Kenneth Walker, Brock Bowers, and teammate Brian Thomas Jr. would be strong targets.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (WR31, ADP 72)
Our 2023 first round rookie pick isn’t looking so hot. I, for one, was pretty hopeful that last year’s rookie woes resulted from OC Shane Waldron, Boomer HC Pete Caroll, and/or having two trusted weapons, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, in front of him.
JSN caught both of his targets for a whopping 19 yards. He posted 0.86 Yards Per Route Run on an 8% Target Share. Tyler Lockett, meanwhile, achieved 4.28 Yards Per Route Run on a 24% Target Share.
Recommendation: Sell
You don’t want to overreact to week 1, but you also don’t want to underreact. JSN is a few games away from getting the Quentin Johnston treatment from Fantasy Twitter. QJ, btw, had a significantly higher target share and YPRR than JSN! If you have a strong belief in his talent then I definitely wouldn’t be panic selling, but I think his price is still high enough that I would be comfortable to just move off of him before it’s too late.
KTC has him at WR29, 68th overall. He is priced just above the 2025 mid-first, Deebo Samuel, and Ladd McConkey. I’m not sure who in their right mind would sell either of those guys straight up for JSN after what we have seen since he entered the league, but don’t look back if you can somehow manage to pull a similar trade off.
RAHEEM MOSTERT, MIAMI DOLPHINS (RB38, ADP 137)
It’s looking pretty over for our 2023 TD king.
Week 1 Rushing Stat lines for Dolphins backs:
- De’Von Achane: 10 carries for 24 yards
- Raheem Mostert: 6 carries for 9 yards
- Jeff Wilson: 5 carries for 26 yards
- Alec Ingold: 2 carries for 8 yards
Not great! To make matters worse, Achane had the only carry inside the 5 on Sunday and turned it into a TD. Last year, this was Mostert’s bread and butter. He handled a nice 69% of the team’s carries inside the 5 in the 2023 season. Out of these 20 carries inside the 5 in 2023, 12 (!) were touchdowns.
Recommendation: Sell
I don’t have much else to say about Mostert, as much as it does pain me to write this up. Mostert previously dealt with a slew of injuries that kept him off the field throughout his career, and he’s already banged up. We have yet to see RB Jaylen Wright get involved in this offense, but I have to imagine this is coming eventually. With the rise of Achane, Wright knocking on the door, and Jeff Wilson existing, I’m looking to move off of Mostert at his RB45 price tag and invest in a speculative rookie like Jermain Burton who is ranked right next to him.
DRAKE LONDON, ATLANTA FALCONS (WR12, ADP 33)
I almost threw up when I saw the Falcons target shares for Week 1. I was told that the demon had been exorcised, that the bad man (Arthur Smith) would no longer be haunting me in my nightmares, and that there was hope for Drake London!
Not only did London get out-targeted by Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud, but he also posted a 0.65 Yards Per Route Run. London’s 82.1% route percentage is very encouraging, though, and he did have a very difficult matchup on paper with Joey Porter Jr.
Just when we thought London had escaped QB hell, Kirk Cousins and his definitely-not-100% Achilles arrived in Atlanta. It looked really bad:
Recommendation: Hold
Similarly how I’m not panicking about fellow NFC South WR Chris Olave and his 8.3% target share, I’m not panicking about Drake London. Again, I want to send some feelers to the London owners in my leagues to check their panic meter. He’s still ranked ahead of Olave and Rashee Rice if you press the panic button. I wouldn’t pull the trigger quite yet, but I am worried about how atrocious Kirk looked. The good news is, the Falcons just spent their top 10 pick on a new QB!
Seriously though, there are few players worse to have to play against in your first game back after tearing your Achilles than TJ Watt. Let’s see if Kirk can stand his ground next week before making any rash decisions.
Honorable Mentions
- Deshaun Watson (not honorable, just mentioned)
- Kirk Cousins
- Bryce Young
- Daniel Jones (dead)
- Christian McCaffrey
- Rachaad White
- Tyjae Spears
- Chase Brown
- Jaylen Warren
- D’Andre Swift
- Puka Nacua
- Chris Olave
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Rome Odunze
- Tee Higgins
- Jordan Addison
- Terry McLaurin
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Luke Musgrave
- Dalton Kincaid
- Mark Andrews
- Travis Kelce
