Fantasy Football Stock Watch



Who's Rising, Falling and Why


 Below, find all the news and moves that truly impact the fantasy football value needle, with no stone left unturned. We ground each breakdown in our Fantasy Stock Formula, analyzing which factor(s) have seen a change (Talent, Opportunity, Surrounding Talent, Coaching Scheme, Risk, and Upside) to identify Risers, Fallers, Penny Stocks, and Value Holes. All caught up? Return to the homepage.


Could Joe Mixon be 2019’s Todd Gurley in the Bengals’ Version of Sean McVay’s Offense?
Joe Mixon took a giant leap in his sophomore season due to a number of factors. Jeremy Hill fled Cincy for New England last offseason, opening up the majority of the team's carries, and Mixon took full advantage. His 237 carries were 8th in football and he finished as fantasy's RB9 -- and 4th in the league in rushing -- despite missing 2 games to injury, cementing himself as a bona fide RB1 for 2019 and beyond.  A telling stat from Mixon's season that shows how much he's grown: he averaged about 2.8 yards after contact per carry in 2018, and after 5 fumbles on 229 touches in his rookie season, he didn't fumble on any of his 280 touches this past season. He was able to completely surpass Gio Bernard on Cincy's RB totem pole, and that trend should continue with new HC Zac Taylor in charge. In Taylor's two years on the Rams offensive staff, the team's 2nd RB never topped 63 attempts. Taylor-led offenses lean on their top guy, and Mixon is undoubtedly Cincinnati's RB1 as we enter 2019. As we know by now, McVay's system is dependent on “marriage between the run and pass games," and riding one back keeps defenses constantly guessing. If Taylor emulates this in Cincinnati as we expect, Mixon will thrive as a three-down workhorse. Mixon finished the season on a roll, with only Derrick Henry outrushing him from Week 12 on, which only adds to his intrigue heading into next year. Mixon is at RB9 on The Wolf's most recent 2019 Big Board, and you'll probably need to shell out a late 1st/early 2nd round pick to nab him. He's well worth that price and would be perfect to pair with a target hog like Julio Jones.
Julian Edelman 2019 Fantasy Stock Soaring After Super Bowl MVP Performance
Heading into the 2018 season, Julian Edelman was virtually a fantasy afterthought. Whether it was his age (32), his surgically-repaired ACL, his 4-game suspension to start the season, or some combination of them all, he was being drafted well into the 7th round in many leagues, after names like Michael Crabtree and Jamaal Williams. Those who took a chance on him were rewarded handsomely, as he was fantasy's WR12 from Week 5 on. His 8.75 targets per game were 10th in the NFL in the regular season, and if the Super Bowl taught us anything, his massive role in New England's offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Edelman's consistency is what sets him apart. The average catch rate of NFL receivers since 2013 is 62.7%; Edelman's is 71%, which trails only Jarvis Landry and Golden Tate in that span among players with as many targets as Jules. The crossing route over the middle was Edelman's best friend in 2018, as he was targeted more on this route than anyone else in 2018, and generated a 110.5 passer rating on those routes. In year two post-ACL recovery, timing with Tom Brady only continues to improve, and the two seem destined to continue making sweet fantasy music into the 2020s. With Chris HoganPhillip DorsettCordarrelle Patterson and potentially Rob Gronkowski all departing, Edelman is The Wolf's WR14 on his latest 2019 Big Board. Brady's No. 1 target should be viewed as a strong WR2 option heading into next season.
Nick Chubb’s Fantasy Stock Stumbles as Browns Sign Kareem Hunt
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport put Twitter into a frenzy on Monday afternoon when he broke the news that the Browns signed former Chiefs' RB Kareem Hunt. As we all know, Hunt was cut by the Chiefs out of nowhere when a video surfaced from over the summer of him kicking and attacking a woman in a hotel room. Some thought he would never be in the league again, but when a player is in the prime of his career and is one of the best running backs in the league, there will always be a team that will give that player a chance. Surprisingly, it wasn't a RB-needy team who picked up the troubled back, it was the Browns who have a young stud in Nick Chubb and the versatile Duke Johnson. So, what does this mean for each player? Well, it would have been ideal if Kareem Hunt went to a team where he could be a three-down workhorse. He has one of the most elite three-down skill-sets in the league and deserved to have his own backfield. Even though he'll likely thrive in what we think will be an electric offense under Freddie Kitchens' and Todd Monken -- we'll just have to wait and see on his suspension length. When it comes to Nick Chubb, he takes the greatest hit. As of right now, he only slid down to 12 on The Wolf's 2019 Big Board, but just like above, it'll be based on Hunt's length of suspension. As a talent, Chubb blew up once the team traded away Carlos Hyde, finishing as PFF's YAC leader. The former Bulldog will get a chance to be the team's bell-cow, but we'll just have to see how long it'll last. The writing looks like it's on the wall for Duke Johnson. His contract is dirt cheap this year, but it rises to $3.5m in 2020 and $4.5m in 2021. Once Hunt eventually returns, Johnson could be moved. One would believe that the Browns will find a way to get both Hunt and Chubb on the field at the same time, which effectively erases Johnson from their plans. Keep an eye on the 2019 Big Board and listen to the most recent episode of the FFBDPod to hear more thoughts on this acquisition.
Christian Kirk is in for a Major Year 2 Jump Under Kliff Kingsbury
In what was a chaotic rookie situation for Christian Kirk, it is only trending upwards after the Cardinals made a leap of faith by hiring former Texas Tech head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. As we all know, Kingsbury is known for his Air-Raid attack that constantly broke the scoreboards in the Big 12. Outside of Josh Rosen (or maybe Kyler Murray), second year wideout Christian Kirk should benefit greatly from the arrival of Kingsbury. Kirk dealt with major inconsistency at the quarterback position, a mid-season change at offensive coordinator, a first year head coach who was let go at the end of the season and a broken foot that ended his season in Week 13. Through all of that, he finished his rookie season with 590 yards and three touchdowns on 43 receptions.  While at Tech, Kingsbury peppered his wide receivers. In fact, if you break down all of the receptions that came under his watch at Texas Tech, 78.1 percent of the receptions were from the wide receivers (compared to 17 percent to RBs and only 4.6 percent to TEs). It'll be tough to expect Kingsbury to implement a full on Air-Raid offense in the NFL, but we'll see a lot of three and four wide receiver sets. Although old man Fitz is returning for another season, Kirk's elite athletic skill-set translates perfectly into this scheme, based on the quick passing game that will get him into space. If the opposing corner gives the WR cushion, expect a quick pass check to be called. It's also important to mention that Kirk played in the same scheme at Texas A&M under Kevin Sumlin, where he showcased his talents and transformed into a second round selection. When asked about Kingsbury, Kirk was ecstatic:

“Oh man, I think about it every single day,” Kirk told The Republic. “I’m definitely super excited just to be able to realize what I can do in this league. I got on a roll there and obviously it was unfortunate that it ended short for me, but I know what I can do and I know what I need to work on this offseason to feel like I can put myself in position to be one of the top receivers in this league."

Jameis Winston Set To Explode Under Bruce Arians
New Buccaneers HC Bruce Arians is often referred to as a "Quarterback Whisperer," and not without reason. He played a massive role in the development of greats like Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and also resurrected Carson Palmer's career. The next benefactor in line? Jameis Winston. Despite a volatile early career, Winston should thrive in a contract year. He has always possessed the raw arm talent and has a stacked weapons cabinet in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and DeSean Jackson. Now, and most importantly, Winston will also have the perfect coach and scheme to unlock his true ceiling. First and foremost, Arians will instill confidence and proper fundamentals into an admittedly shaky Winston. The 66-year old coach immediately (and purposely) declared the team's offense "is going to be built around Winston," while reminding reporters that he wouldn't have left retirement without "the perfect fit" at QB. Moreover, Arians and his staff have already studied "every career Winston throw," and believe his mistakes are nearly all mechanics related. Winston has already said Arians' firm faith "means a lot," and this budding rapport, plus Arians' early list of coaching points, is a perfect start to a potentially magical pairing. Beyond establishing the crucial QB-HC bond, Arians has consistently crafted explosive and unpredictable attacks. He loves attacking teams deep when they least expect it, and will be equipped with the perfect arm and speedy cast to unleash hellfire on the league. Arians coined his playcalling as "no risk it, no biscuit," and the Bucs are set up to bake plenty of fantasy bread in 2019. When describing Winston, Arians gushed: “He’s smart. He loves ball. He’s here. He’s got all the talent in the world, so why can’t he be successful?" We fully agree. Winston's currently 9th on The Wolf's 2019 Big Board. Though quite a leap, QB9 could be an undersell if Arians again waves his magic wand.
Phillip Lindsay Will Visit Zone Blocking Heaven in Rich Scangarello’s Offense
Though many will call for regression after his stunning rookie season, Phillip Lindsay could be even better in 2019. This may seem blasphemous, considering Lindsay rumbled for 1,278 total yards and 10 TDs to earn a Pro Bowl berth. Yet, new OC Rich Scangarello may actually improve Lindsay's outlook, particularly because of his zone blocking scheme and overall offensive ingenuity. Over the past two seasons, Scangarello has served as the 49ers QBs coach... meaning he's a disciple of Kyle Shanahan. In fact, Scangarello's understanding of this system extends beyond "disciple." He's been studying and molding offenses after Shanahan since 2009 -- so much so that he left a cozy college OC position and took a 70% paycut just for the chance to study under him in Atlanta. For Lindsay, this means a pristine understanding of the zone-blocking running scheme that has made fantasy monsters out of both elite and no-name talents alike. It means a run-centric approach to set up the play-action and screen games to "marry the run and pass games." Which fits Lindsay's game perfectly. According to his scouting report and as seen on tape, Lindsay "goes from patient to urgent instantly as a runner," "contorts through crevices and finds the second level," and "runs with timing and instincts." Patience and acceleration are the two paramount traits to success in a zone scheme, and Lindsay has them in spades. He's also a smooth route runner and fantastic pass-catcher, and should thrive in the screen game. With Scangarello, the Broncos offense should improve as an entire unit, all while featuring a run-game that fits Lindsay like a glove. This has Lindsay's stock somehow rising despite an unfathomable 2018.
Aaron Jones Will Finally Be Freed Under Matt LaFleur
Packers RB Aaron Jones has consistently produced when given the chance. In fact, among players with at least 200 career rushing attempts, Jones ranks first in NFL history in yards per carry (5.5). Although inconsistent "Usage" has kept Jones' fantasy ceiling capped, that should change in a major way under new HC Matt LaFleur: the RB1 in LaFleur’s run-centric offense has touched the ball 15+ times in 42 of the last 48 games (87.5%). Meanwhile, Jones has been elite with proper volume. In his 8 games with at least 15+ touches, Jones has netted 145 touches (24 rec), 883 YFS, and 9 TDs. Over a full season, this equates to a 290 touch (48 rec), 1766 YFS, and 18 TD pace. In other words, Jones would've scored 308 FPs (19.3 FPPG), trailing only Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara in 2018. Explored in more detail here, LaFleur's entire offense is predicated on establishing a "marriage between the Run and Pass games." This includes primarily means a bevy of play-action and screens off of seeming run-designs. For these to work, however, a firm run-game presence must be established. As such, LaFleur utilizes the always-effective "Shanahan Zone Blocking Scheme" to open up wide lanes and get defenses biting. With superb vision and elite acceleration, Jones is the perfect fit. Moreover, the Packers top-seven offensive line is plenty athletic to execute. Even better: LaFleur loves throwing to his backs, especially in the screen game; a RB has caught 54+ passes in his system for three straight seasons. Jones will be incredibly dangerous with blockers in space. Both Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman ripped of Top RB seasons in this offense, and Jones is set up to be the next beneficiary. Between the Volume and Scheme improvements, Jones is now the ideal second round RB. Click here for more LaFleur's overall offense, or Jones' specific fit.
Baker Mayfield to Chef Up Sophomore Masterpiece in Freddie’s Kitchen
After igniting the Browns' offense for the final eight games of 2018, Browns OC Freddie Kitchens earned a serious promotion. "The Chef" became Cleveland's 17th head coach, and no one should be happier than QB Baker Mayfield. Unlike Todd Haley, Kitchens quickly morphed to Mayfield's quick-slinging strengths, and the results on the entire offense were enormous. Under Kitchens, Cleveland tied for the league lead in yards per pass attempt (8.72), ranked fourth in both total yards (395.1) and passing yards (285.9) per game, all while leading the NFL in yards per play (6.86). Unsurprisingly, Mayfield's stats similarly skyrocketed. His completion percentage rose from 58% to 68%, while his YPA rose from 6.6 to 8.6 despite a quicker-hitting offense. Overall, Mayfield was on pace for 4508 yards, 38 TDs, and 16 INTs, equal to 300.3 FPs and a QB9 finish, a point below Drew Brees.  Prior, under Haley and Hue, Mayfield was on pace for 3922 yards, 21 TDs, and 16 INTs pace, which equals 208.8 FPs, good enough for a QB20 finish just below Case Keenum. Instead of learning an entirely new offense, Mayfield will now be able to develop inside a system where he's already thrived. This invites innovation and refinement, which will only be furthered with new OC Todd Monken. Though Monken just completed a wildly successful campaign as the Bucs OC, Kitchens will continue calling plays. Still, he'll rely heavily on Monken, who has 23 years coaching college Air Raid offenses, for scheming. This has already translated well to the NFL, as the 2018 Bucs led the league in passing yardage (5125 total, 320 per game) thanks to an emphasis on the deep ball (8.6 YPA, second in the league). In fact, Monkens stated: “I like having fun. I don’t know why it has to feel like such drudgery all the time. Who needs more 5-yard plays? How can we be explosive? That’s what the game is about, man. People like big plays. I like big plays.” Mayfield himself thrived in an Air Raid offense at Oklahoma. Between Kitchens' familiarity and Monken's aggressiveness, Mayfield and the Browns offense are set to explode in 2019. He's far-and-away my favorite late round QB target, and now up to No. 10 in my rankings.
Dalvin Cook: 2019’s Christian McCaffrey in Fantasy?
Dalvin Cook truthers!  Your time appears to finally be upon you.  With the recent hire of Gary Kubiak as an "offensive adviser," along with the return of OC Kevin Stefanski, Cook is in prime position to be 2019's Christian McCaffrey. This is especially true with Latavius Murray expected to depart to Free Agency. Just like McCaffrey, Cook's always had the Talent, but with his Usage and Scheme scores skyrocketing, he should explode into elite RB1 land.   Between injuries, inconsistent usage, and an ill-fitting scheme, Cook was among 2018's biggest busts. Still, the stars are aligning for a massive 2019 breakout.  For one, Kubiak is a true bell cow breeder, and RBs have thrived inside his zone blocking scheme. In fact, over Kubiak's 22 years as an OC or HC, 15 RBs have topped 1200 YFS, including 13 over 1480, 10 over 1600, and 7 over 1800. Even better, of those five misses, just two were non-injury related. Supreme talents like Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Arian Foster were all 1900+ total yard, 18+ TD monsters in this scheme, but even no-names like Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns,  and Steve Slaton have been 1,500 yard, 10+ TD beasts. Cook's ability and ceiling are much more in-line with those first three names. Plus, when provided with a capable pass-catching back, Kubiak will fully exploit it. 6 of his last 9 RBs caught at least 40 balls, and Cook drips in receiving ability. Hell, just last year, he caught 40 passes for 305 yards in only 11 injury-ridden contests.  Foster caught at least 40 passes three of his six seasons with the Texans. Though this offense will have his fingerprints all over it, Kubiak won't be the play-caller. Still, Stefanski is promising in his own right. In his first game calling plays, Stefanski rode cook for a season-high 20 touches, 163 yards, and 2 TDs. Overall, Stefanski flipped the Vikings from a 67/33 run-to-pass ratio (31st for run) to a 52/48 (9th). Yes, his health is a major question mark. If he should stay healthy, however, Cook is in the perfect set-up to unlock his elite RB1 ceiling.
Sony Michel Confirms Long-Term Fantasy Upside in New-Look Patriots Offense
Sorry, Tony. Sony Michel doesn't suck, nor blow. He proved the haters wrong (myself included), by putting the Patriots offense on his back and showing he was worth a first round pick as a legitimate workhorse. All the former Bulldog did was carry the ball an obscene 71 times in the three playoff games to the tune of 336 yards and six scores -- a 4.7 ypc average. Throughout the playoffs, Bill Belichick and the Patriots once again showed that they're playing chess, while the rest of the league is playing checkers. Instead of lining up in multi-wide receiver sets, the Patriots utilized a heavy dose of 21-personnel, which featured a fullback and one tight end. They used their mauling offensive line and James Develin to create running lanes for the rookie running back. Opposing defenses were stuck in smaller nickel packages, which showed why Belichick used his two first rounders on a running back and an offensive lineman. So, what does this mean for Michel's 2019 fantasy outlook? First, he'll get a gigantic boost from The Wolf's 2019 Big Board from the RB26 spot and possibly up into his top 15 running backs. Michel's extreme usage will also hurt James White's outlook, along with Tom Brady's. Also, keep an eye on the free agency status of Trent Brown, who was arguably last year's greatest off-season acquisition for the Patriots and is due for a major pay day.
Derrick Henry Obviously, Finally a “Big Part” of Titans Offense, Set to Surge in 2019
If the thought of saddling up a 6'3", 250 lbs workhorse gets your fantasy football juices flowing, congrats! Titans RB Derrick Henry is set to finally, truly be featured for all of 2019. Despite his painfully slow start to 2018, Henry was the best back in football over the final four weeks (apparently due to some motivation from Eddie George). Over that span, the monster bulldozed defenders for 625 yards and 7 TDs, averaging a league-best 31.3 FPs per game during the fantasy playoffs. Unsurprisingly, this stellar play has earned him a featured role as the centerpiece for new OC Arthur Smith's run-heavy attack. "Derrick will be a big part of the offense," Smith said. "He has a rare skill set. Derrick's a home-run hitter. We are taking another step hopefully with him. What he did over the last five weeks will open up a lot of things." When describing his planned scheme, Smith --a former lineman and longtime tight end coach-- promised a "physical," grind-it-out style of attack. Moreover, he stressed the importance of maintaining continuity with Matt LaFleur's run-obsessed, zone-heavy offense: "Zone is a great starting point for us, but there are a lot of schemes that fit Derrick... Gaps, pin and pulls, zone read...there's a certain mentality that we want to play with coming off the football. We want to be physical and knock people back." Who better to accomplish this style than a human steamroller? One with equal measurables to Von Miller?  HC Mike Vrabel certainly agrees, and will give Henry every opportunity to re-establish dominance to begin 2019:

"I would say that if he started off 2019 like he ended 2018, I think that would be great," Vrabel said. "That would be unbelievable for everybody."

Yes, Henry's usage spike is well-deserved and seemingly obvious. Still, his career mismanagement had to create at least some doubt on his 2019 status. Thankfully, those fears should now be buried.
Todd Gurley’s Perfect Fantasy Usage Disappears in Strange Playoff Run
Fantasy's 2017 MVP and our clear cut No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft lived up to the hype last season by posting the most points at his position -- even though he missed the final two games due to a knee injury. Most thought Todd Gurley would benefit from the Rams' first round bye. However, Gurley was unable to do much of anything during their playoff run, finishing with a measly 45 yards and 14 carries during the team's two most important games of the season. What's even more concerning was the resurgence of CJ Anderson, who showed up out of nowhere and out-carried Gurley 46-to-30 during the playoffs. With the Rams expecting to retain Anderson in free agency, Gurley's once elite fantasy football status is now in serious doubt for the 2019 season. The Rams and Gurley himself continued to state throughout the playoffs that his knee injury from the tail end of the regular season was not a correlating factor to his lack of involvement in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. Instead, McVay put it on his game plan. "We just didn't get a lot of attempts off," McVay said, via ESPN.com. "So that really ended up being a big result of what ended up happening where neither Todd nor C.J. [Anderson] got involved." But with the Patriots slow linebackers having issues covering running backs throughout the season, most thought Gurley would be in for a big game -- especially after McVay said he would be heavily involved after a quiet game against the Saints. Keep tabs on CJA and guard Rodger Saffold's impending free agencies, Andrew Whitworth's retirement status, and Gurley's potential placement on the trading block as three major offseason storylines coming out of LA -- which could severely impact Gurley's 2019 fantasy outlook. He remains likely to be a monster worthy of Top-Three fantasy consideration. Still, what was a no-brainer, locked-in No.1 pick just a month or two ago, now comes with some must-monitor warts.
Dante Pettis is the Clear 49ers WR to Own in Your Fantasy Championship Matchup
Dante Pettis was virtually irrelevant in San Francisco's offense prior to the team's Week 11 bye. Since then, he's been by far their top option, averaging 85 yards/game in that 4-game span and scoring 4 TDs. He didn't score against Seattle this week but led his team in targets (5), receptions (5), and receiving yards (83) in a solid showing against a good team. Pettis has made some impressive plays during this recent stretch and has clearly developed some chemistry with Nick Mullens, making him a strong WR3/Flex play even against the Monsters of the Midway. They say it's not how you start, it's how you finish, and Dante Pettis almost certainly agrees. After a Week 1 TD, he had just 1 catch from Weeks 2-9 due to injury and lack of opportunity. But he's been a force in the time since, making big plays seemingly each week and emerging as the clear top option in San Francisco's WR corps. George Kittle is obviously the pass-catcher to own for the Niners, but beyond him, Pettis is the next safest bet. Despite his recent tear, Pettis is still just 52% owned on Yahoo, meaning there's roughly a 50/50 shot you can still grab him for your championship matchup. His matchup with the Bears doesn't look promising on the surface, but the Bears are more generous to opposing WRs than you may think, and especially with Eddie Jackson injuring himself last week and likely missing Week 16, Pettis may thrive against a team that's already clinched their division.
Derrick Henry Continues to Punish as he Chases Fantasy Playoff MVP Status
Derrick Henry rumbled to 170 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries while catching his lone target for no gain Sunday in Tennessee’s Week 15 victory over the Giants. What. A. Game. The 33 carries were a career-high for Henry, while both of his touchdowns were of the goal-line variety. He also completed a six-yard pass to Tajae Sharpe, because why not? Henry's crooked stat line was obviously aided by poor tackling, but that shouldn't take away from what was another monster performance by the former Heisman Trophy winner. The third-year pile-pusher enforced his will on the Giants all afternoon, stiff-arming opponents into oblivion. It was a second straight tour de force for Henry, who has now amassed 408 yards and six touchdowns on 50 carries (8.16 yards per attempt) over his last two outings. He's out-touched backfield-mate Dion Lewis by a commanding 51-25 margin during that span. Now entrenched as the undoubted focal point of Tennessee's offense, Henry will be playable as an RB1 when the Titans host Washington in Week 16. The talented 24-year-old could end up being a league-winner in fantasy. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! I really want to strangle every single coach down there in Tennessee for depriving us of what could have been an orgasmic season. The RSJ has been all-in on the idea of Derrick Henry being a workhorse back for two full years now and each time the team signs some other stupid RB to split carries with. SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN HE GETS THE ROCK CONSISTENTLY?! GOOD THINGS HAPPEN! Anyways, Henry's volume right now is mouth watering and with a matchup against the Redskins in Week 16 this wild ride should continue through the fantasy finals. After two monster back to back games, there's physically no way possible you could even think of benching him for Week 16. He very well could have you lifting the hardware next Sunday.
Chris Carson Cements Lead Back Role for Seahawks
The Seahawks backfield has been a difficult read all season long, as varying times have seen Chris Carson, Mike Davis, or Rashaad Penny seemingly taking over the role of lead back. But with Penny missing some time due to injury and Mike Davis' touch count decreasing, Chris Carson has stepped up in a big way down the stretch for Seattle. Sunday against San Francisco was more of the same, with Carson turning 22 carries into 119 yards and a TD and catching all six of his career-high 6 targets for another 29 yards. The receiving production may end up being a fluke, but Carson is averaging 83 rushing yards per game over the last 5 games -- with 4 TDs in that span -- and those numbers seem to speak for themselves.  Even if Mike Davis returns to a more primary role and/or Rashaad Penny returns, Chris Carson is still a strong play as the lead back in the league's top rushign offense. Seattle is fighting for their playoff hopes, so the time for backfield experimentation is done -- Pete Carroll will be riding the hot hand from here on out, and recently Seattle's hot hand has been Carson. Next up for the Seahawks is a primetime matchup with the Chiefs at home, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Even if Seattle falls down early and must resort to the passing game, Carson is a solid RB2 play for Week 16.
Marlon Mack Makes a Statement and Returns to Fantasy RB1 Territory
Marlon Mack rushed 27 times for 139 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts' 23-0, Week 15 win over the Cowboys. He added a 10-yard catch on one target. With C Ryan Kelly back in the lineup after missing multiple games, the big center was clearing running lanes up the middle all afternoon, and Mack scored both of his touchdowns on interior runs. The first was a one-yard plunge on the opening drive, and the second a six-yard burst to start the third quarter. The only blemish was a lost fumble at his own 35-yard line, but the defense later picked Dak Prescott to preserve the shutout. Mack will be a borderline RB1 next week at home against the lowly Giants. I'll take "Things I Didn't See Coming" for $800 please Alex. Mack had some quiet weeks his last two performances in which he was bailed out by a touchdown in one. The matchup seemed very unfavorable against a stingy Cowboys defense that was firing on all cylinders. Luckily, he was forced into a very positive game script as the Colts dominated and held a lead the entire game. Mack still played the relatively same amount of snaps as his season average with maybe a slight uptick. With the huge lead though, he was given the ball 27 times which lead to his huge day. Now with Week 16 in sight and the Fantasy Championship title just inches away, Mack is staring at a cupcake Giants team the Colts should have no problem working over. Another positive game script seems likely, and Mack can once again put up big numbers for your title team.
New Target-Hog Robby Anderson a Potential Fantasy Title Winner
That oinking and squealing you hear from the Meadowlands? That's Robby Anderson, of course! Fantasy's newest Target Hog once again was bathed in looks, turning team-high 11 targets into 7 catches, 96 yards, and a TD. Over his past two contests since Sam Darnold's return, Anderson has caught 11 balls for 172 yards and 2 TDs. The rookie QB is zooming in on Anderson, who has nearly 30% of the target share. Only 27% owned, Anderson makes a fantastic fantasy Waiver Wire add before a Week 16 date with a GB secondary that surrenders the third most FPs to WRs. Indeed, Anderson's 2018 has been a major disappointment. Outside of a 25 FP explosion in Week 5, Anderson has been utterly worthless. Still, the newfound volume is making him a potential Stretch Run Hero. He's fresh off torching both Houston and Buffalo, who both rank in the 10-fewest for FPs allowed to WRs. If this volume carries over, Anderson will be staring at his juiciest matchup yet. Yes, I love DaeSean Hamilton's 12 targets, and I recognize Robert Foster has exploded for 12+ FPs in 4 of his last 5 games. Still, if I need a WR, Anderson is 100% the top Waiver Wire guy I'm picking. Ride this newfoun rapport to the 2018 fantasy title town.
Kalen Ballage a Week 16 Fantasy Waiver Wire Priority
With Frank "Ageless" Gore's season over due to a foot sprain, rookie RB Kalen Ballage suddenly has significant fantasy relevance for 'Ship Week. Ballage, and not Kenyan Drake, took over as the lead Dolphins back, ripping 123 yards and a TD on 12 carries. This included a 75-yard TD scamper on the first play of the second half. Meanwhile, Drake totaled a robust 1 carry for 6 yards and 3 catches for 28. Even more strange, Gase claimed this had "nothing to do" with his shoulder injury. If Drake was somehow still on a roster heading to Week 16, he can be safely sent packing for Ballage. The Week 16 matchup isn't great, as Miami will matchup with Jacksonville, who allowed the 8th fewest FPs to RBs on the year. Still, as Stretch Run Hero Derrick Henry has shown us, the Jags are far from impenetrable. Ballage is a big back at 6'2", 228 lbs, and his 4.46 speed was on full display during his long TD scamper. In addition to some freakish athleticism, Ballage has soft hands and offers true every-down upside. Trusting him in a tough spot and with your season on the line is nerve-wracking, but clearly the ceiling is pretty damn high. I look to Jamaal Williams (17% owned) first, but if you're a crazy underdog desperate for a flex, Ballage is a dice roll worth taking.
Josh Allen & Robert Foster: Making Bills (Fantasy) Relevant Again
Once the laughingstock of fantasy football (and a must-stream opponent for D/ST), the Bills have suddenly gained new relevancy. Rookie QB Josh Allen (23% owned) is undoubtedly the leader of this surge, as the athletic dual-threat has been dominating with his legs to produce solid fantasy totals. In fact, Allen recently broke Michael Vick's record for rushing in a three game span by topping 100 in three straight games for 335 total, and just added another rushing score -- his sixth -- Sunday versus Detroit. When actually throwing, Allen has been honing in on Robert Foster (14%). Foster now has 12+ FPs in four of his last five (80%), and is fresh off a 4-108-1 TD (18.8 FP) day. He's a big play threat just waiting to boom each week, and should be added by the WR-needy. Trusting any Bills in a fantasy championship may induce squirming, but both Allen and Foster are shockingly viable against a weak NE defense. Allen is of particular intrigue, as the Patriots surrender the 8th most FPs to QBs, and struggle especially with dual threats. He's gone for 26, 30, 20, and 19 over his last 4, and has a fair shot at 20+ once again. Meanwhile, Foster is thriving with his old Alabama playcaller Brian Daboll dialing up weekly deep shots. I'd turn to Robby Anderson (27%) first, but Foster is a dart throw who's hitting far more than missing.
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