This weekly series analyzes the ever-changing Dynasty fantasy football landscape, aiming to stay more in sync with the market than your league rivals. We will find the right balance between overreacting and underreacting each week to provide the best possible value to our teams. Those who act too quickly or too slowly to what this NFL season tells them each week will see their Dynasty rosters weaken compared to ours.
In Dynasty, we care about the Why with regard to player production on a weekly basis because, ultimately, we want to make decisions on players based on what their careers, or at least a portion of their careers, will look like, not just the rest of this NFL season. Player value in the long term is far more important to us than short-term production.
Unless specified otherwise, Rankings are referenced from KeepTradeCut (“KTC”) for SuperFlex (2 QB) Leagues. I will list players by position rank, then overall rank (E.g. WR4, RNK 11)
Please reach out to me on Twitter (@Lboyle_FF) or on Reddit (u/DortcherChamber) if you have any questions!
See:
TRENDING UP
BUCKY IRVING, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (RB28, RNK 111)
Weeks 1-2 Bucky Irving vs. Rachaad White:
- Rushing Attempts: 16 (Irving) vs. 25 (White)
- Rushing Yards: 84 vs. 49
- Rushing First Downs: 2 vs. 1
- Snap %: 32% vs. 71%
- Expected Fantasy Points per Game: 5.8 vs. 12.1
- Fantasy Points per Game: 5.9 vs. 10.0
Week 3 Bucky Irving vs. Rachaad White:
- Rushing Attempts: 9 (Irving) vs. 6 (White)
- Rushing Yards: 70 vs. 17
- Rushing First Downs: 3 vs. 1
- Snap %: 34% vs. 71%
- Expected Fantasy Points: 8.8 vs. 14.6
- Fantasy Points: 11.4 vs. 8.5
Through 3 weeks, Bucky averages 6.16 yards per carry to White’s 2.13. This offseason, I was convinced that Rachaad White was not a good runner of the football, and it sure looks to be the case so far. What do we usually see when a backup RB outperforms the starter in rushing efficiency?
An increase in volume:
Recommendation: Buy
I want to be betting on Bucky and against White. The Bucs offense got a reality check this week, but it still looks like one I want to have pieces of for Fantasy. More importantly, I want to acquire young RBs at cheap prices who have a chance to become the lead back. Priced right around a 2025 early 2nd, Bucky is a shot worth taking. Fire off any 2nd to the Bucky owner and see if they’ll bite.
JONATHAN TAYLOR, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, (RB6, RNK 32)
JT is coming off a huge performance of 23 rushes for 110 yards and 2 TDs. He could have had a third TD, on a drive where he willed the Colts down the field, but got vultured by Trey Sermon at the end.
Week 3 Expected Fantasy Points Leaders:
- Aaron Jones: 24.1
- Jonathan Taylor: 21.8
- De’Von Achane: 20.6
- Alvin Kamara: 19.8
- Breece Hall: 19.7
Week 3 RB Snap % Leaders:
- Alvin Kamara: 89.1%
- Kyren Williams: 87.3%
- Jonathan Taylor: 85.2%
- Zach Charbonnet: 85.0%
- Jerome Ford: 84.1%
In weeks 1-2, JT only held a 70% snap share and averaged 12.4 expected fantasy points per game. On a team where I expect head coach Shane Steichen to hide the QB in Anthony Richardson, I anticipate JT will continue to hold a significant workload.
Recommendation: Buy/Hold
After two lackluster weeks, I think some Taylor owners are willing to “sell high” off of this performance. Take advantage of this. I don’t love the idea of buying an RB in his mid-to-late 20’s, but if you can get JT at a price relatively closer to RB8 (42 overall) then I think it would be worth it. Taylor owners could be panicking about the first two weeks or the Colts offense in general, so assuming that a discounted price is obtainable is not unreasonable.
AARON JONES, MINNESOTA VIKINGS (RB30, RNK 123)
As seen in JT’s section, Aaron Jones led all running backs (!!) in expected fantasy points for week 3. For this season, he ranks 7th among all backs in Expected Fantasy Points, 0.1 Points below Bijan Robinson. At almost 30 years old, Aaron Jones is still cooking.
The Vikings offense has been firing on all cylinders, and Jones is reaping the benefits. KOC is a top offensive mind who is making Sam Darnold look like an actual good QB. I don’t expect them to cool off any time soon.
Recommendation: Buy
For years, we pleaded with Matt LaFleur to #FreeAaronJones, and now, Jones gets his revenge game against Lafleur, coming off a game with 100 rushing yards and six targets. I don’t want to wait for the revenge game boost to his price to buy. Priced right at a mid-2025 2nd, Jones is the perfect contender rental to help you win a championship.
DK METCALF, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, (WR19, RNK 44)
After a rough outing in Week 1 against a Patrick Surtain shadow, DK posted the following stat lines:
- Week 2: 31.2% Target Share, 10 Catches, 129 Yards, 1 TD, 28.9 Fantasy Points (+7.4 over expectation)
- Week 3: 17.6% Target Share, 6 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD, 20.4 Fantasy Points (+9.5 over expectation)
DK has been insanely efficient in the past two weeks, making him the WR7 overall. Is this sustainable? That’s really the skeleton key to determining his value. I think > 7 fantasy points per game over expectation is unsustainable, but extreme efficiency should lead to an increase in volume in theory. The volume increase he has seen thus far has been a greater utilization on shorter routes than he’s seen in his career, which is very bullish for his outlook.
In the 2023 regular season, DK averaged a 20.7% target share, 4.1 receptions per game, 70 receiving yards per game, .5 TDs per game, and 14.1 Fantasy Points per Game (-0.3 under expectation). However, Shane Waldron was his OC, who has been showcasing a disaster class through 3 weeks with the Bears.
At league average rates for EPA per Play and bottom 5 in EPA per Play Allowed (good defense), I’m not sure how often we will see this team playing from behind. I think Mike MacDonald is a Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan-esque defensive genius, and OC Ryan Grubb seems to be doing some good things with Geno Smith.
That being said, they haven’t faced a strong offense yet, only having played Denver, New England, and Skylar Thompson-led Miami. I’m extremely intrigued to see how they fare against Detroit this week.
Recommendation: Hold (?)
I’ve been very happy with how Geno has played thus far- He looks to have solidified himself as a top-15 QB. That’s great news for Metcalf and the Seattle offense in general. With the potential rise of JSN, I’m just not sure what to make of DK and this situation. He is on pace to have a career year, and I think given the lack of serious offenses Seattle has faced, his best games are yet to come.
I was not very high on DK coming into this year, but it’s hard to ignore how awesome he looks. I wouldn’t want to buy at WR17 prices – I’d probably look to move DK for Brain Thomas Jr. (WR18) or Brandon Aiyuk (WR19) if possible, but I think it’s very reasonable to hold. This offense is intriguing and I do want to have pieces of it.
JAYDEN DANIELS, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (QB6, RNK 14)
I fully intended to write up Justin Fields, but I’m a Commanders fan. Monday Night Football, with no exaggeration, was the most rewarding and satisfying game I can remember outside of maybe RGIII vs. the Saints in 2012 and MNF in 2005 (which I barely remember) against the Cowboys where Santana Moss scored two TDs to secure the W.
Jayden Daniels is simply electric. MNF Stat line: 21/23, 254 passing yards, 39 rushing yards, 3 total TDs, 0 turnovers (32.06 Fantasy Points).
As of his third start, Jayden Daniels has back-to-back games where the offense scored on every drive (excluding kneels); Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Patrick Mahomes COMBINED have done this TWICE in their 1,094 career starts. Jayden also posted the highest single-game PFF grade of any QB this season and any Washington QB in the PFF era.
Jayden has 171 rushing yards through 3 games, ranking 21st in the league among all rushers with one more yard than Breece Hall. He is one of nine players to have at least 3 rushing TDs. Daniels averages 8.2 Expected Fantasy Points per game on the ground alone, which is more than Tyjae Spears, Raheem Mostert, and Ezekiel Elliot. His 23.2 Fantasy Points per Game rank 2nd best at the position and 4th overall.
My two biggest concerns with Jayden (as a real life QB) were his processing and the Kliff Kingsbury offense that held him captive for the first two weeks, effectively making him a check down and scramble merchant in the horizontal raid offense. His average depth of target in Weeks 1-2 ranked 32nd in the league (5.2 yards per attempt), while this week, he ranked 9th (9.7 yards per attempt). As for his processing, I think MNF was extremely encouraging:
Maybe most importantly, he’s got aura:
Recommendation: Buy/Hold
It may be impossible to buy after this performance, and I can assure you it would be (almost) impossible to buy from me. This is the type of performance that leads to a crazy overpay, and I’m not suggesting you do that. I would trade Jalen Hurts, Kyle Murray, and Jordan Love for Daniels straight up. For Hurts, you may even be able to get something on top. These guys are all fairly close to each other in price, with Hurts being slightly further ahead.
I would be willing to move Amon-Ra St. Brown for Daniels+. I’m not willing to move Malik Nabers, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, or any of the top 7 for Daniels+. Again, I’m a diehard fan of this team, so I don’t know how to be unbiased in this scenario, but I don’t think I’ve said anything completely unreasonable here. Left Hand UP!
HONORABLE MENTIONS
- Justin Fields
- Jonathon Brooks
- Malik Nabers (Mentioned last week, but went so crazy I put him here again)
- Quentin Johnston
- Dallas Goedart
TRENDING DOWN
D’ANDRE SWIFT, CHICAGO BEARS (RB39, RNK 156)
Woof. Let’s take a look at the career path of D’Andre Swift: He started in Detroit, and it became pretty clear pretty quickly how much the Lions hated him. They spent the No. 12 pick on Jahmyr Gibbs to replace Swift, and he made his way to the Eagles, where he looked alright, but never established himself as a top back in fantasy football. This summer, the Bears signed Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract ($15.3 million guaranteed).
How are things going so far? Swift is averaging 0.14 yards before contact per rush despite only seeing an 11% rate of a “stacked box.”
Through three games in 2024, He has 37 rushing attempts for just 68 yards, has rushed for a single first down, has zero TDs, and is falling short of his 11.7 expected fantasy points per game, averaging just 6.5 fantasy points per game.
Recommendation: Sell
This Summer, Swift was being taken at the top of the seventh round of Dynasty Startup drafts just ahead of Jayden Reed, Joe Mixon, and George Kittle. What’s going on with Swift?
The offensive environment has been terrible, don’t get me wrong. I know Saquon Barkley is a different breed, but I can’t help but notice how incredible he looks behind the Eagles offensive line compared to Swift last year. I can’t get it out of my head how little Detroit used Swift and how eager it seemed they were to move on. He’s on his third team, is 25 years old, and seemingly has a horrendous coaching staff and offensive line. I want out asap if possible. Assets priced around Swift I’d be willing to trade for: Cole Kmet, Dallas Goedart, Jaylen Warren, Marshawn Lloyd, a 2026 late 2nd, Darnell Mooney, and Nick Chubb.
CALVIN RIDLEY, TENNESSEE TITANS (WR48, RNK 130)
Titans Target Shares Weeks 1-2 (min 3 targets):
- Calvin Ridley: 21.7%
- Tyler Boyd: 16.7%
- Chig Okonkwo: 8.3%
- DeAndre Hopkins: 5.0%
- Treylon Burks: 5.0%
Titans Target Shares Week 3 (min 3 targets):
- DeAndre Hopkins: 20.6%
- Josh Whyle: 14.7%
- Tyler Boyd: 11.8%
- Treylon Burks: 8.8%
- Calvin Ridley: 8.8%
I don’t expect Josh Whyle and Treylon Burks to out-target Calvin Ridley beyond Week 3. However, this usage is bearish for Ridley. Jaire Alexander shadowed Ridley this week, so that’s a very good reason not to panic about the usage for Ridley. What concerns me is not Ridley’s bad week. It’s DeAndre Hopkins’s good week.
Hopkins was nursing a knee injury at the start of the year, and it appears he’s getting closer to full health. At least, that was my deduction based on a 6-reception, 73 yards, and 1 TD performance against the Packers. I was getting concerned that 32-year-old Hopkins could be fully washed, but it’s more likely he was just limited due to injury.
Hopkins posted a pretty ridiculous .25 first downs per route run in Week 3 as well as a 33.3% first read target share. Among all WRs who ran at least 20 routes in Week 3 (not including MNF), Hopkins had the 7th-best average separation score (“ASS“) with a .250. Through three weeks, Ridley’s ASS is .057. Throw out this week where he was shadowed by Jaire, and his ASS is still only .067, ranking 30th among all receivers with 50 routes through weeks 1-2.
Recommendation: Sell
I felt pretty confident over the offseason that DeAndre Hopkins would be the alpha in this offense. Ridley didn’t really impress me last year, and I think Hopkins is an unbelievable talent even at 32 years old. I did expect this offense to be extremely pass-heavy, but I was hopeful that Will Levis would be better than he appears to be. I would want to dump Ridley after a solid Weeks 1-2 performance to those who still believe in his talent.
I’d look to tier down in WR to a Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall, or Josh Downs. If you are more in the market for short-term production, I would package Ridley to move up and get a WR like Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, or Stefon Diggs.
BRANDON AIYUK, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (WR19, RNK 45)
Brandon Aiyuk is just this week’s Drake London/Chris Olave.
I really think this is just a matter of he and his QB Brock Purdy getting on the same page. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Aiyuk and Purdy have had miscommunications/been slightly off given that Aiyuk sat out a large portion of training camp. Camp has to matter at least a little bit for QB/WR chemistry.
At the same time, I’m not going to let the fact that he missed camp cause me to panic about this slow start.
In week 3, (forever to be known as the Jauan Jennings week), Aiyuk had a 90% route percentage and a 33.3% target share. The QB connection just wasn’t there:
Recommendation: Buy
I don’t have too much else to say. Brandon Aiyuk as the 19th ranked WR and 47th overall player does not sit right with me. We are one game away from him shooting up 10-20 spots. Olave, for example, already jumped up 12 spots from last week after posting a 6 reception, 86 yards, and one TD performance.
According to the “market,” Aiyuk is just three spots above a 2025 mid-1st, despite being the 5th highest-paid WR in the NFL. Reach out to every Aiyuk manager and see if they are panicking.
JAYLEN WADDLE, MIAMI DOLPHINS (WR21, RNK 49)
This was an incredibly gross week for the Dolphins and especially Tyreek and Waddle.
In Week 3, Waddle‘s target share was 15.6%, had 26 yards, 0.93 Yards per Route Run, 0.36 First Downs per Route Run, and finished with 6.6 fantasy points (-1.0 below expectation).
This offense is broken with no viable QB and offensive line. Things are really bleak – I started Jalen Nailor over Waddle this Sunday and I was not given a reason not to do it again this week. There is really no reason to expect that Waddle will produce without Tua.
In Week 1, Waddle missed a portion of the game due to being banged up and still had five catches for 109 yards. He and Tyreek were both over 4.0 Yards per Route Run in this contest.
Recommendation: Buy/Hold
Similarly to how buying injured players is a tried and true method to obtaining value, I think buying a player directly affected by injury, in this case, a receiver’s value altered by QB availability and Offensive line play, is a clear way to have a player gain value on your roster.
I wouldn’t feel so strongly about this if I didn’t fully believe in Waddle’s talent. Top 5 in yards per Route Run and career-high targets per route run last year playing next to Tyreek Hill were two reasons I cited in pleading with fantasy managers to buy Waddle in May. He’s dropped 19 spots to 49th overall, almost the same value as a 2025 mid-1st. This is egregious. Bet on talent.
MARK ANDREWS, BALTIMORE RAVENS (TE10, RNK 123)
Yikes! There has to be some injury we have not heard about… right?
I was not concerned when many were panicking in Week 1 after Isaiah Likely’s usage, but I (wrongly) advised finding the panicking Mandrews owner and buying if you could get a great discount. Now, I am that Mandrews owner.
There is some speculation about his production being related to a pretty serious accident Mark was involved in over the summer. It’s certainly possible this was a bigger deal than was reported, as he missed some time in practice. I don’t know if it’s relevant at all, but I have no idea what to make of what we have seen so far.
The TE position, in general, is a wasteland, so it’s not like Andrews is hurting you too badly – what hurts more is the absolute tank in value he’s experienced on your roster. If you rejected a trade for Andrews over the summer, do not go back and look at the offer.
Recommendation: Good Luck
This clip from Harbaugh doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence:
You could look to sell and be done with this nightmare, but good luck finding a price you are comfortable accepting!
Honorable Mentions
- Trevor Lawrence
- Rachaad White
- Gus Edwards
- Tank Dell
- Travis Kelce
