Fantasy Football Week 8 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021) - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Week 8 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021)

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 6.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for Weeks 1-6 individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerTMPOSGPPR AVGXFP AVGDIF AVGCAR AVGTGT AVGAIR YDS AVG
N.HARRISPITRB620.224.6-4.417.77.72.2
D.HENRYTENRB726.623.13.528.32.9-0.4
C.KUPPLAWR727.222.64.60.111.6109.3
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB319.520.9-1.417.35.74
A.KAMARANORB620.220.8-0.619.35.54.3
D.COOKMINRB416.520.1-3.6214.5-9.3
D.SWIFTDETRB719.620-0.411.77.4-0.6
C.RIDLEYATLWR514.220-5.8010.4104.2
D.MOORECARWR717.519.9-2.40.710.3118.4
D.ADAMSGBWR720.619.80.8010.4123
T.HILLKCWR721.519.520.710.4103.6
D.SAMUELSFWR621.819.22.6110.381.3
T.MCLAURINWASWR71718.9-1.909.9127.4
S.DIGGSBUFWR615.918.6-2.709.7121.5
J.JEFFERSONMINWR618.618.50.109.8108.5
D.JOHNSONPITWR518.418.30.10.210101.4
E.ELLIOTTDALRB619.118.20.917.33.3-0.5
L.FOURNETTETBRB716.318-1.713.34.95.6
M.WILLIAMSLACWR620.117.82.309.3111.2
K.ALLENLACWR614.517.6-3.109.778.8
A.EKELERLACRB621.517.5412.75.31.7
B.COOKSHOUWR714.517.3-2.80.19.1116
J.TAYLORINDRB718.717.21.515.43.3-6
M.EVANSTBWR718.417.11.308.4115.9
T.KELCEKCTE717.516.80.709.375.1
C.SUTTONDENWR714.816.7-1.908.3135.4
D.HENDERSONLARB616.816.50.3163.77.2
D.WALLERLVTE613.816.5-2.708.890.5
S.SHEPARDNYGWR415.816.3-0.50.3973
M.BROWNBALWR718.616.12.50.18.1129.7
C.GODWINTBWR716.616.10.50.18.373.7
T.HIGGINSCINWR512.516.1-3.608.684.2
C.LAMBDALWR618.1162.10.78.281.5
A.BROWNTBWR519.115.93.20.28.4111.4
A.THIELENMINWR617.815.820.28.376.3
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR513.215.8-2.60.48.499.8
J.ROBINSONJAXRB617.415.71.714.23.71.2
C.PATTERSONATLRB619.315.53.89.25.817.2
A.JONESGBRB71715.51.513.14-0.3
D.PARKERMIAWR411.815.5-3.708103.5
K.HUNTCLERB617.415.32.112.54-0.2
J.MEYERSNEWR71215.2-3.208.475.4
J.WADDLEMIAWR714.115.1-10.18.347.9
M.JONESJAXWR613.414.9-1.507.798.2
M.ANDREWSBALTE715.8141.807.374.6
J.JACOBSLVRB515.113.91.212.63.2-2
K.PITTSATLTE61413.90.107.378.8
R.WOODSLAWR714.213.80.40.67.166
D.SMITHPHIWR711.213.8-2.607.498.1
J.CHASECINWR720.913.77.20.17.3108.6
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB41513.71.317.52.30.5
C.DAVISNYJWR613.813.70.107100.8
C.EDMONDSARIRB711.713.7-29.94.72.7
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE319.513.65.906.762
J.MIXONCINRB715.113.61.517.72.3-2.7
A.BROWNTENWR612.113.6-1.50.27.292.7
M.DAVISATLRB69.713.6-3.911.24-6.8
D.HOPKINSARIWR716.713.53.206.778.4
S.BARKLEYNYGRB512.913.5-0.61143.8
A.GIBSONWASRB712.513.5-115.32.6-3.7
M.PITTMANINDWR714.113.40.70.37.180.9
T.HOCKENSONDETTE712.613.3-0.707.455.3
R.ANDERSONCARWR77.213.3-6.10.1785.4
N.CHUBBCLERB516.613.23.418.61-1.4
A.COOPERDALWR615.213.220782.7
E.SANDERSBUFWR61513.21.80.26.5112.2
H.RENFROWLVWR712.813.2-0.407.348.7
M.GASKINMIARB712.113.2-1.17.95.1-0.6
J.CROWDERNYJWR311.613.2-1.60734.7
D.METCALFSEAWR717.513.14.407.185.4
M.GESICKIMIATE713.113.1007.169.7
O.BECKHAMCLEWR5813-50.46.695.2
Z.MOSSBUFRB512.712.9-0.2112.82.6
N.FANTDENTE71212.8-0.80742.9
M.CARTERNYJRB610.112.8-2.7103.82.3
J.JEUDYDENWR113.212.70.50783
C.BEASLEYBUFWR611.612.7-1.107.240.5
G.KITTLESFTE410.712.6-1.90.37.349
C.HUBBARDCARRB79.312.4-3.1123.34
L.SHENAULTJAXWR69.812.2-2.40.56.744.2
D.HARRISNERB712.2120.213.91.60.9
M.GALLUPDALWR17.612-4.40742
M.SANDERSPHIRB7911.9-2.99.13.4-7.6
T.LOCKETTSEAWR71311.81.206.480.7
D.MOONEYCHIWR79.811.8-20.16.364.1
S.WATKINSBALWR59.411.8-2.406.485.2
J.WILLIAMSDENRB710.611.7-1.110.13.1-2.1
M.GORDONDENRB711.611.40.211.32.71.1
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR36.511.4-4.905.3116.3
D.SCHULTZDALTE614.211.32.906.237
J.MCKISSICWASRB710.611.3-0.74.34.96.4
E.ENGRAMNYGTE5711.3-4.30.25.832.6
D.CHARKJAXWR48.611.2-2.605.598.8
T.BOYDCINWR710.111.1-106.441.1
A.MATTISONMINRB69.611.1-1.511.82.81.2
M.INGRAMHOURB76.410.9-4.513.61.32.7
T.PATRICKDENWR711.610.80.805.663.3
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB510.510.8-0.313.22-3.6
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR5910.8-1.805.880.4
D.SLAYTONNYGWR49.310.7-1.405.884
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB6910.7-1.71030.7
R.BATEMANBALWR2910.6-1.60654.5
D.BOOKERNYGRB68.810.6-1.88.22.3-0.8
P.BARBERLVRB38.810.6-1.812.71.76
A.MILLERHOUWR26.710.6-3.905.537
C.CARSONSEARB41210.51.513.51.5-3.3
M.HARDMANKCWR79.210.5-1.30.65.740.3
A.ROBINSONCHIWR77.710.5-2.805.766.9
T.JOHNSONNYJRB66.610.5-3.95.33.314.7
E.MITCHELLSFRB412.210.41.816.31-2.8
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
K.RAYMONDDETWR710.310.4-0.10.35.662.6
J.WILLIAMSDETRB79.910.4-0.510.32.60.3
K.OSBORNMINWR611.710.31.40.25.844.8
J.COOKLACTE69.410.2-0.805.545.5
K.GAINWELLPHIRB79.310.2-0.93.94.410.4
Z.ERTZARITE79.310.2-0.90.15.144.6
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR5710.2-3.20.65.636.6
E.MOORENYJWR5510.2-5.20.25.271.4
J.CONNERARIRB711.110.1112.90.70.6
J.JONESTENWR59.410.1-0.705.472.8
H.RUGGSLVWR712.1102.10.45.186.9
A.GREENARIWR711.8101.80562.7
C.KIRKARIWR713.79.83.90.15.166
T.POLLARDDALRB611.59.81.710.72.5-2.7
D.WILLIAMSKCRB79.39.8-0.57.72.6-0.3
Z.PASCALINDWR78.79.6-0.90533.7
J.HASTYSFRB37.89.6-1.83411
N.AGHOLORNEWR78.49.5-1.10.1574.3
R.GAGEATLWR38.29.4-1.20532.7
K.TONEYNYGWR69.39.300.3536.2
Q.CEPHUSDETWR59.99.20.704.651.2
W.FULLERMIAWR24.39.1-4.80475
K.DRAKELVRB710.191.16.13.312.6
M.CALLAWAYNOWR69.990.904.761.3
T.HIGBEELATE79.190.104.721.7
V.JEFFERSONLAWR79.98.81.104.763.9
T.CONKLINMINTE68.78.8-0.10524.8
D.KNOXBUFTE613.68.74.904.538.3
A. ST. BROWNDETWR76.68.7-2.104.737.3
J.LANDRYCLEWR3108.61.40.34.723
H.HENRYNETE710.68.52.104.640.1
R.MOOREARIWR79.88.51.31.34.49.7
A.COLLINSSEARB68.48.4010.81.20.5
B.EDWARDSLVWR78.48.4004.364.1
J.SMITHNETE76.28.3-2.10.44.321.6
D.JOHNSONHOURB778.1-1.143.411
N.HINESINDRB76.48.1-1.74.93.41.3
J.REAGORPHIWR778-10.34.344
C.KMETCHITE75.28-2.80.14.336.6
D.GOEDERTPHITE610.17.82.30436.5
J.O'SHAUGHNESSYJAXTE27.17.7-0.604.529.5
T.HILTONINDWR1127.64.40467
T.WILLIAMSBALRB58.37.60.76.82.26.6
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB67.37.6-0.35.82.3-1.5
K.BOURNENEWR7117.43.60.3443.9
Q.WATKINSPHIWR77.87.30.503.752.3
P.WILLIAMSMIAWR34.17.3-3.20.3437.3
R.SEALS-JONESWASTE777.2-0.203.720.6
L.MURRAYBALRB68.671.6100.8-0.5
A.DILLONGBRB76.67-0.47.61.72.1
R.STEVENSONNERB35.96.8-0.961.32.7
B.BERRIOSNYJWR65.56.8-1.30.33.825.7
N.COLLINSHOUWR44.86.8-203.837.8
T.MARSHALLCARWR64.36.8-2.503.724.2
L.THOMASWASTE48.46.71.703.526.3
G.BERNARDTBRB67.26.70.50.73.71.7
K.HERBERTCHIRB76.56.7-0.28.41.1-3
J.ROSSNYGWR45.96.6-0.703.353.8
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR75.26.5-1.303.725.6
K.HAMLERDENWR34.16.5-2.403.367
C.ROGERSTENWR66.66.40.20.23.532.2
B.BOLDENNERB76.46.401.43.10
R.TONYANGBTE76.16.4-0.303.630.7
D.AMENDOLAHOUWR376.30.703.714.7
F.SWAINSEAWR76.86.30.50.63.423.7
P.CAMPBELLINDWR56.46.30.103.446.2
D.BROWNWASWR62.76.3-3.60.23.346.5
C.WILSONDALWR67.56.21.30.33.231.3
B.PRINGLEKCWR77.36.21.103.341.4
D.HARRISNOWR59.56.13.40.23.249.6
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB76.46.10.313.40.1
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR64.86.1-1.30332.2
C.JOHNSONNYGWR53.26.1-2.903.430.4
K.STILLSNOWR41.66.1-4.50.3369.3
P.FREIERMUTHPITTE66.660.603.322.8
A.HOOPERCLETE75.25.9-0.703.112
J.GUYTONLACWR64.15.9-1.80.7332.2
M.WILLIAMSARITE58.35.82.503.418
S.PERINECINRB66.95.81.15.51.72.3
A.LAZARDGBWR76.55.80.70330.1
J.REYNOLDSTENWR44.85.8-103.336
O.ZACCHEAUSATLWR64.25.8-1.60327.5
S.AHMEDMIARB73.75.8-2.14.12.16.9
C.BRATETBTE73.15.8-2.70325.7
M.ALIE-COXINDTE77.85.72.10328.4
H.HURSTATLTE65.65.6003.222
R.HIGGINSCLEWR74.65.6-10335.7
S.MICHELLARB74.55.6-1.180.70.3
B.AIYUKSFWR64.35.6-1.30.32.724.3
R.COBBGBWR76.35.50.80.12.625.6
J.TAYLORNERB44.65.5-0.93.51-0.5
L.BELLBALRB33.45.5-2.16.310
D.NJOKUCLETE77.35.41.90325.4
R.JONESTBRB73.95.3-1.46.30.7-0.6
C.UZOMAHCINTE710.455.402.717.1
D.FELTONCLERB74.231.20.41.7-0.3
D.JOHNSONCLERB73.930.940.40.6
B.SCOTTPHIRB71.82.1-0.310.6-1.1
R.PENNYSEARB20.92.1-1.2400

WEEK 8 BUY-LOW

TEE HIGGINS

Teammate Ja’Marr Chase (discussed below) led the Bengals with a 200-yard day against the Ravens in Week 7, but Tee Higgins led the team with 15 targets and 179 air yards. Despite that incredibly high volume, Higgins only gained 62 yards on seven catches. After missing him for part of the season with injury and watching Chase explode, Higgins managers are likely frustrated.

However, the underlying metrics look great for Higgins to bounce back over the rest of the season:

Higgins is averaging more XFP and more targets per game than Chase on the season despite an in-game injury and having to re-acclimate to the offense after the injury.

I don’t expect Higgins to outproduce Chase over the rest of the season because Chase is more talented. Chase has a PFF offensive grade of 83.5 compared to 71.7 for Higgins. But the talent disparity isn’t big enough that Higgins should be underperforming his XFP by 3.6 points per game while Chase overperforms by 7.2. Look for the gap in fantasy points to narrow over the rest of the season.

D.J. MOORE

D.J. Moore started the season on fire, averaging 22.4 PPR points through the first four games, but has averaged just 11.0 PPR points over the past three games. The Panthers offense has struggled lately, but you might be surprised to find out that Moore’s usage profile hasn’t changed much between the two splits.

In the first four games, Moore averaged 20.4 XFP, 10.5 targets, and 109.3 air yards per game. Over the past three games, Moore has averaged 19.1 XFP, 10.0 targets, and 130.7 air yards per game. Other than a dip in red-zone usage due to the team scoring less, Moore is still seeing the same looks that he saw in the first month of the season.

The return of Christian McCaffrey should help boost overall offensive efficiency, and hopefully lead to more team red-zone trips. As a bonus, Panthers have also been rumored to be interested in Deshaun Watson, which would send Moore’s stock to the moon. But even if Watson doesn’t happen, look for Moore to start cashing in on his still excellent opportunities and return to WR1 status in the coming weeks.

DARRELL HENDERSON

Darrell Henderson has quietly been one of the true bell-cows of the 2021 NFL season. His overall results have been dampened by a couple of in-game injuries, and he also missed a game, but Henderson is healthy now and back to serving in a true workhorse role.

 

Henderson is dominating his team’s running back snap share, is involved in the passing game, and serves as the primary goal-line back, all qualities we look for in a top fantasy back.

Even with injuries limiting him in two of his six starts this year, Henderson is still averaging 16.8 PPR points and 16.5 XFP. Both numbers would tick up slightly if you consider he’s missed about half a game between Week 2 and Week 5, but even without adjusting, he’s still currently the RB11 in XFP per game.

The Rams struggled in the run game last week, but they have juicy matchups coming against the Texans and Titans over the next two weeks. Henderson’s final numbers didn’t look great in Week 7, but he should bounce back in a big way given his workload and the upcoming matchups.

WEEK 8 SELL-HIGH

JA’MARR CHASE

I alluded to this in the Higgins writeup, but Chase, while an excellent player, is bound to see his efficiency regress. To be clear, I don’t expect the difference between his actual points and XFP to go to zero. He, like other elite deep threats, is talented enough to consistently outproduce his XFP by a few points per game. But not by 7.2 points per game.

The top ten receivers in PPR points per game from 2020 (Adams, Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, A.J. Brown, Fuller, Jefferson, and Metcalf) outproduced their XFP by an average of about 12%. Will Fuller was the highest at 32.8%, which probably wouldn’t have been sustainable over a larger sample.

Chase is currently outperforming his XFP by a whopping 52.6% (7.2 difference divided by 13.7 XFP average). Again, Chase is very talented, but he isn’t so much more talented than the group of receivers above that he can maintain this efficiency. He might even be able to consistently outproduce his XFP by more than the 12% group average, but the 52.6% number is virtually guaranteed to come down.

One reason for his outlier performance is that he has scored a 70-yard touchdown and an 82-yard touchdown over the past three weeks. Both plays were relatively fluky.

The Packers defender badly misplayed the ball and should have at least made the tackle on the 70-yard touchdown.

While he ran a nice route on an 8-yard slant, four separate Ravens defenders either missed an easy tackle or gave up on the play, allowing Chase to take it 82 yards to the house.

Chase is currently being valued as if this efficiency is sustainable. He is currently the PPR No. 8 player OVERALL in the FantasyPros ECR. Based on everything outlined above, this is way too high, and I recommend extracting as much value as possible from his Week 7 blow-up.

FINAL THOUGHTS

With so many players on bye, I didn’t see many other players with significant value that I would sell this week. Last week, I recommended selling Adam Thielen and CeeDee Lamb, and nothing has changed with those players on bye.

Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check out my trade value chart, which also incorporates expected fantasy points data, and check back next week for more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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