Fantasy Football Week 2 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021)

If you read any of my fantasy football buy-low, sell-high articles from last year, you know that I love high-volume, high upside fantasy players. However, raw targets and carries are only part of the equation.

On average, a goal-line carry is worth more than a carry from your own 20-yard line. A red-zone target is worth more than a target at midfield. A 40-yard bomb is worth more than a screen pass behind the line of scrimmage.

That’s obvious.

The less obvious part is determining exactly how much more valuable one play is than the next. Fortunately, we can quantify the exact value of each opportunity using my Expected Fantasy Points model.

EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS

I built the model based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (xFP). A player’s xFP is calculated based on the value of each target or carry, using historical data attributes that correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored. All data in this article uses full PPR scoring.

Expected Fantasy Points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. We can then subtract the player’s actual fantasy points scored to arrive at the difference, a key metric.

HOW TO INTERPRET EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS

The difference between expected and actual fantasy points comes from two sources:

Talent/Situation

We would expect the most talented players in the NFL to score more fantasy points than their expected fantasy points. That’s pretty obvious since xFP is based on the averages of all players. Also, a given coach or scheme might lead to a sustainable difference in actual over expected points. A carry in Kyle Shanahan’s offense will typically produce more points than a carry in Adam Gase’s offense. A carry behind an elite offensive line would be more valuable than a poor one.

These are all sustainable ways for a player to consistently outperform or underperform their expected points. Because of these differences between players, we should not assume that the difference between expected and actual points will always regress to zero. In other words, don’t blindly buy any player with a negative difference. Don’t sell every player with a positive difference.

Luck

The main reason to use expected fantasy points is to identify players who are experiencing very bad or very good luck. Unlike the previous differences, luck will even out over a long period. We want to buy players who are having bad luck and sell players who are having good luck.

Separating differences that are sustainable from differences due to luck can be tricky. It’s not an exact science. However, most players will score within a few points per game of their expected fantasy points for the season. The players with the largest differences are the ones most likely to be benefitting or suffering from luck.

Model Inputs

Now that you understand the value of Expected Fantasy Points, I will explain how I calculate Expected Fantasy Points in my model. If you don’t care about the details, skip this section. If you have more detailed questions or comments, let me know on Twitter @RSJ_Jackson

First, I started with play-by-play data from nflfastR. The dataset includes every play from Week 1. Then, I calculated Expected Fantasy Points for every single play using three inputs: distance from the end zone (for carries), distance from the end zone (for targets), and depth of target (for targets).

Charts

Scott Barrett, currently with FantasyPoints, published data for each of the three inputs:

And we see something similar with targets as well. pic.twitter.com/11JvitDIhw

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 8, 2017

 

Expected fantasy points per target, by depth of target (air yards). [PPR vs. Standard] pic.twitter.com/sBzkQxqxkQ

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) February 10, 2017

These values are from previous years, but they are extremely sticky from year to year.

EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS WEEK 1

After calculating actual and expected points for every play, I simply match each play with the relevant player to generate the output. Roughly the top 230 players for Week 1 are included.

You can find the data below:

Player	Team	Position	Actual Fantasy Points	Expected Fantasy Points	Difference	Carries	Targets	Air Yards
D.WALLER	LV	TE	26.5	34.1	-7.6	0	19	203
A.COOPER	DAL	WR	38.9	31.8	7.1	0	16	127
T.HILL	KC	WR	37.1	28.5	8.6	1	15	231
C.LAMB	DAL	WR	23.4	26.8	-3.4	0	15	159
S.DIGGS	BUF	WR	15.9	25.4	-9.5	0	14	150
C.MCCAFFREY	CAR	RB	27.7	25.2	2.5	21	9	5
C.GODWIN	TB	WR	23.5	24.3	-0.8	0	14	111
D.COOK	MIN	RB	20.4	23.6	-3.2	20	7	-9
D.CHARK	JAX	WR	17.6	23.5	-5.9	0	12	199
K.ALLEN	LAC	WR	19	23.5	-4.5	0	13	112
D.SWIFT	DET	RB	24.4	23.2	1.2	11	11	7
C.BEASLEY	BUF	WR	14	22.9	-8.9	0	13	78
M.WILLIAMS	LAC	WR	22.2	21.7	0.5	0	12	118
J.MIXON	CIN	RB	25	21.5	3.5	29	4	1
D.SAMUEL	SF	WR	31.9	20.8	11.1	0	12	100
J.TAYLOR	IND	RB	17.6	20.3	-2.7	17	7	-8
A.GIBSON	WAS	RB	11.8	19.7	-7.9	20	5	3
M.DAVIS	ATL	RB	10.2	19.4	-9.2	15	6	-3
J.WILLIAMS	DET	RB	25	19.2	5.8	9	9	2
T.HOCKENSON	DET	TE	25.7	18.5	7.2	0	10	65
A.ROBINSON	CHI	WR	9.5	18.4	-8.9	0	11	42
N.HINES	IND	RB	14.2	18.3	-4.1	9	8	-2
D.JOHNSON	PIT	WR	14.6	17.5	-2.9	0	10	51
A.THIELEN	MIN	WR	30.2	17.4	12.8	0	10	73
C.KUPP	LA	WR	23.8	17.4	6.4	0	10	71
M.VALDES-SCANTLING	GB	WR	4.7	17.1	-12.4	0	8	156
J.JEFFERSON	MIN	WR	12.54	17	-4.46	0	9	113
D.HARRIS	NE	RB	11.7	17	-5.3	23	3	5
M.SANDERS	PHI	RB	17.3	16.9	0.4	16	5	-10
A.KAMARA	NO	RB	18.1	16.3	1.8	20	4	-4
S.SHEPARD	NYG	WR	24.3	16	8.3	0	9	94
M.JONES	JAX	WR	18.7	16	2.7	0	9	104
L.FOURNETTE	TB	RB	10.9	15.9	-5	9	7	-4
L.SHENAULT	JAX	WR	12.9	15.8	-2.9	1	9	28
K.OSBORN	MIN	WR	14.6	15.7	-1.1	0	9	71
J.MEYERS	NE	WR	10.4	15.5	-5.1	0	9	63
H.RENFROW	LV	WR	13	15.5	-2.5	0	9	62
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER	PIT	WR	9.2	15.4	-6.2	0	8	50
D.HENRY	TEN	RB	10.7	15.4	-4.7	17	4	6
E.SANDERS	BUF	WR	9.2	15.4	-6.2	0	8	149
D.MOORE	CAR	WR	15.4	15.1	0.3	1	8	94
M.INGRAM	HOU	RB	14.5	14.9	-0.4	26	1	19
C.RIDLEY	ATL	WR	10.1	14.6	-4.5	0	8	92
S.WATKINS	BAL	WR	13.6	14.5	-0.9	0	8	90
A.BROWN	TEN	WR	14.9	14.4	0.5	0	8	83
D.HOPKINS	ARI	WR	26.3	14.4	11.9	0	8	90
K.PITTS	ATL	TE	7.1	14.3	-7.2	0	8	60
D.PARKER	MIA	WR	12.1	14.3	-2.2	0	7	84
A.BROWN	TB	WR	23.7	14.2	9.5	1	7	144
D.SINGLETARY	BUF	RB	11	14.2	-3.2	11	5	5
N.FANT	DEN	TE	12.2	14	-1.8	0	8	55
J.CHASE	CIN	WR	20.9	14	6.9	1	7	114
J.COOK	LAC	TE	10.6	14	-3.4	0	8	67
J.O'SHAUGHNESSY	JAX	TE	10.8	14	-3.2	0	8	39
D.SMITH	PHI	WR	19.1	14	5.1	0	8	56
Q.CEPHUS	DET	WR	12.2	13.9	-1.7	0	7	102
J.WHITE	NE	RB	12.1	13.7	-1.6	4	7	29
R.GRONKOWSKI	TB	TE	29	13.7	15.3	0	8	53
N.HARRIS	PIT	RB	5.9	13.6	-7.7	16	3	3
B.COOKS	HOU	WR	18.2	13.5	4.7	0	7	132
K.DRAKE	LV	RB	12	13.4	-1.4	6	5	13
K.HUNT	CLE	RB	17.1	13.2	3.9	7	3	-2
C.DAVIS	NYJ	WR	26.7	13.1	13.6	0	7	118
C.CARSON	SEA	RB	12.7	13	-0.3	16	3	-3
J.ROBINSON	JAX	RB	8.4	13	-4.6	5	6	17
B.BERRIOS	NYJ	WR	10.1	12.9	-2.8	0	7	39
M.GASKIN	MIA	RB	12.6	12.8	-0.2	9	5	5
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE	KC	RB	10.2	12.7	-2.5	14	3	-4
D.SLAYTON	NYG	WR	9.5	12.7	-3.2	0	7	83
J.JEUDY	DEN	WR	13.2	12.7	0.5	0	7	83
N.AGHOLOR	NE	WR	18.2	12.6	5.6	0	7	79
D.ADAMS	GB	WR	10.6	12.5	-1.9	0	7	51
C.EDMONDS	ARI	RB	14.6	12.4	2.2	12	4	-12
T.KELCE	KC	TE	25.6	12.3	13.3	0	7	54
D.MOONEY	CHI	WR	7.6	12.1	-4.5	0	7	43
M.GALLUP	DAL	WR	7.6	11.9	-4.3	0	7	42
C.KMET	CHI	TE	9.2	11.7	-2.5	0	7	31
T.WILLIAMS	BAL	RB	18.4	11.5	6.9	9	4	0
K.GOLLADAY	NYG	WR	10.4	11.1	-0.7	0	6	90
D.WILLIAMS	CHI	RB	8	11.1	-3.1	6	5	0
M.BROWN	BAL	WR	19.4	11.1	8.3	1	6	48
C.ROGERS	TEN	WR	10.2	11	-0.8	0	6	61
J.JONES	TEN	WR	5.9	10.8	-4.9	0	6	63
M.EVANS	TB	WR	5.4	10.8	-5.4	0	6	46
M.GORDON	DEN	RB	20.8	10.7	10.1	11	3	-2
N.CHUBB	CLE	RB	22.1	10.6	11.5	15	2	-4
T.BENSON	DET	WR	4.9	10.6	-5.7	0	6	45
A.SCHWARTZ	CLE	WR	11.6	10.6	1	1	5	126
J.WADDLE	MIA	WR	16.1	10.6	5.5	0	6	66
A.GREEN	ARI	WR	4.5	10.5	-6	0	6	53
T.HIGBEE	LA	TE	11.8	10.5	1.3	0	6	28
T.MARSHALL	CAR	WR	5.6	10.5	-4.9	0	6	52
D.SCHULTZ	DAL	TE	10.5	10.3	0.2	0	6	14
A.TRAUTMAN	NO	TE	4.8	10.3	-5.5	0	6	31
K.RUDOLPH	NYG	TE	2.8	10.2	-7.4	0	5	34
R.GRIFFIN	NYJ	TE	5.2	10	-4.8	0	6	24
J.REAGOR	PHI	WR	16.9	10	6.9	0	6	6
T.LOCKETT	SEA	WR	26	9.9	16.1	0	5	108
S.BARKLEY	NYG	RB	3.7	9.9	-6.2	10	3	5
J.MCNICHOLS	TEN	RB	6.3	9.9	-3.6	2	4	10
J.WILLIAMS	DEN	RB	5.1	9.9	-4.8	14	1	-8
E.MITCHELL	SF	RB	16.4	9.8	6.6	19	0	0
H.RUGGS	LV	WR	6.6	9.7	-3.1	0	5	99
D.HENDERSON	LA	RB	15.7	9.7	6	16	1	3
B.EDWARDS	LV	WR	12.1	9.6	2.5	0	5	97
D.MONTGOMERY	CHI	RB	18.8	9.6	9.2	16	1	0
C.CLAYPOOL	PIT	WR	10	9.6	0.4	1	5	61
D.NJOKU	CLE	TE	10.6	9.4	1.2	0	5	102
R.WOODS	LA	WR	12.4	9.4	3	1	4	23
D.METCALF	SEA	WR	16	9.3	6.7	0	5	77
K.GAINWELL	PHI	RB	12.3	9.2	3.1	9	3	-3
P.BROWN	HOU	TE	10.7	9.2	1.5	0	5	66
G.DAVIS	BUF	WR	12	9.2	2.8	0	5	66
T.KROFT	NYJ	TE	5.6	9.2	-3.6	0	5	16
C.KIRK	ARI	WR	24	9.1	14.9	0	5	60
J.JACOBS	LV	RB	17	9	8	10	2	8
Z.PASCAL	IND	WR	20.3	9	11.3	0	5	42
E.ELLIOTT	DAL	RB	5.9	9	-3.1	11	2	0
J.LANDRY	CLE	WR	19.4	8.9	10.5	1	5	16
J.SMITH	NE	TE	9.8	8.8	1	1	5	18
T.POLLARD	DAL	RB	8.3	8.8	-0.5	3	4	-9
D.GOEDERT	PHI	TE	14.2	8.8	5.4	0	5	34
T.HIGGINS	CIN	WR	15.8	8.7	7.1	0	5	41
M.ANDREWS	BAL	TE	5	8.7	-3.7	0	5	38
G.KITTLE	SF	TE	9.8	8.6	1.2	0	5	28
J.GUYTON	LAC	WR	7.9	8.6	-0.7	0	5	22
R.MOORE	ARI	WR	10.8	8.5	2.3	0	5	24
D.AMENDOLA	HOU	WR	14.4	8.4	6	0	5	20
E.MOORE	NYJ	WR	0.7	8.2	-7.5	0	4	92
D.JOHNSON	HOU	RB	11.8	8.1	3.7	3	4	9
J.CONNER	ARI	RB	5.3	8	-2.7	16	0	0
K.HAMLER	DEN	WR	7.1	7.9	-0.8	0	4	86
K.RAYMOND	DET	WR	8.9	7.8	1.1	1	4	53
A.EKELER	LAC	RB	11.7	7.7	4	15	0	0
C.HYDE	JAX	RB	7.8	7.7	0.1	9	2	-2
A. ST. BROWN	DET	WR	4.3	7.7	-3.4	0	4	51
T.JOHNSON	NYJ	RB	3.6	7.5	-3.9	4	3	29
M.GOODWIN	CHI	WR	8.3	7.4	0.9	1	4	28
A.LAZARD	GB	WR	3.6	7.3	-3.7	0	4	47
T.CONKLIN	MIN	TE	8.1	7.3	0.8	0	4	31
T.JONES	NO	RB	6.3	7.2	-0.9	11	1	0
D.KNOX	BUF	TE	8.1	7.2	0.9	0	4	23
T.MCLAURIN	WAS	WR	10.2	7.2	3	0	4	43
T.BOYD	CIN	WR	6.2	7.1	-0.9	0	4	24
D.BROWN	WAS	WR	0.8	7.1	-6.3	0	4	39
M.PITTMAN	IND	WR	5.9	7	-1.1	0	4	30
T.PATRICK	DEN	WR	13.9	7	6.9	0	4	34
A.DILLON	GB	RB	3.6	6.9	-3.3	4	2	-2
H.HURST	ATL	TE	6.8	6.8	0	0	4	10
C.PATTERSON	ATL	RB	8.7	6.8	1.9	7	2	5
C.WILSON	DAL	WR	5.4	6.8	-1.4	0	3	24
J.DOYLE	IND	TE	5.1	6.8	-1.7	0	4	16
S.AHMED	MIA	RB	4.8	6.7	-1.9	3	3	31
A.FIRKSER	TEN	TE	4.9	6.7	-1.8	0	4	17
B.JARWIN	DAL	TE	5	6.7	-1.7	0	4	15
R.TONYAN	GB	TE	2.8	6.4	-3.6	0	4	2
R.ANDERSON	CAR	WR	12.7	6.4	6.3	0	3	92
V.JEFFERSON	LA	WR	16	6.3	9.7	0	3	87
P.CAMPBELL	IND	WR	3.4	5.8	-2.4	0	3	50
A.JONES	GB	RB	4.2	5.8	-1.6	5	2	-1
C.SUTTON	DEN	WR	2.4	5.7	-3.3	0	3	51
P.LINDSAY	HOU	RB	8.5	5.5	3	8	1	-3
M.CARTER	NYJ	RB	3	5.4	-2.4	4	2	0
M.TAYLOR	GB	WR	3.4	5.3	-1.9	0	3	30
G.BERNARD	TB	RB	3.2	5.3	-2.1	0	3	19
T.SHERFIELD	SF	WR	10.3	5.3	5	0	3	28
M.THOMAS	CIN	WR	1.5	5.3	-3.8	0	3	28
H.HENRY	NE	TE	6.1	5.2	0.9	0	3	24
W.DISSLY	SEA	TE	6.7	5.2	1.5	0	3	20
N.COLLINS	HOU	WR	1.7	5.1	-3.4	0	3	19
K.HILL	LAC	WR	6	5.1	0.9	0	3	18
L.THOMAS	WAS	TE	12	5.1	6.9	0	3	17
A.HOOPER	CLE	TE	5.7	5.1	0.6	0	3	16
K.BOURNE	NE	WR	2.7	5.1	-2.4	0	3	16
D.ARNOLD	CAR	TE	2.6	5.1	-2.5	0	3	15
D.BYRD	CHI	WR	4.9	5	-0.1	0	3	13
T.WILLIAMS	DET	WR	3.4	5	-1.6	0	3	13
L.MURRAY	BAL	RB	8.8	5	3.8	10	0	0
D.BOOKER	NYG	RB	2.3	4.9	-2.6	4	1	2
J.JOHNSON	NO	TE	17.1	4.9	12.2	0	3	4
Q.WATKINS	PHI	WR	5.3	4.9	0.4	0	3	-7
A.OKWUEGBUNAM	DEN	TE	8.6	4.8	3.8	0	3	2
M.HARDMAN	KC	WR	4.9	4.8	0.1	0	3	1
T.COLEMAN	NYJ	RB	2.4	4.8	-2.4	9	0	0
D.HARRIS	NO	WR	15.2	4.4	10.8	0	2	66
S.PERINE	CIN	RB	3.9	4	-0.1	5	1	-3
A.ABDULLAH	MIN	RB	3.9	4	-0.1	1	2	2
L.ROUNTREE	LAC	RB	2.7	4	-1.3	8	0	0
D.DUVERNAY	BAL	WR	1.6	3.9	-2.3	0	2	32
Z.JONES	LV	WR	12.6	3.9	8.7	0	2	41
M.CALLAWAY	NO	WR	2.4	3.9	-1.5	0	2	39
M.STRACHAN	IND	WR	4.6	3.9	0.7	0	2	26
D.ROBINSON	KC	WR	1.9	3.8	-1.9	0	2	33
Z.ERTZ	PHI	TE	5.4	3.7	1.7	0	2	31
M.GESICKI	MIA	TE	0	3.6	-3.6	0	2	28
E.EBRON	PIT	TE	2.9	3.6	-0.7	0	2	23
I.THOMAS	CAR	TE	2.7	3.6	-0.9	0	2	15
C.CONLEY	HOU	WR	4.7	3.6	1.1	0	2	20
D.JACKSON	LA	WR	4.1	3.5	0.6	0	2	16
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE	TEN	WR	2	3.5	-1.5	0	2	16
S.ANDERSON	LAC	TE	1.1	3.5	-2.4	0	2	15
C.UZOMAH	CIN	TE	5.5	3.5	2	0	2	15
E.SAUBERT	DEN	TE	1.7	3.5	-1.8	0	2	0
H.BRYANT	CLE	TE	2.7	3.4	-0.7	0	2	12
J.GRAHAM	CHI	TE	2.1	3.4	-1.3	0	2	12
R.GAGE	ATL	WR	0	3.4	-3.4	0	2	12
A.HUMPHRIES	WAS	WR	3	3.4	-0.4	0	2	11
D.SMYTHE	MIA	TE	1.9	3.3	-1.4	0	2	7
B.PRINGLE	KC	WR	1.6	3.3	-1.7	0	2	3
G.EVERETT	SEA	TE	10	3.2	6.8	0	2	0
C.HUBBARD	CAR	RB	2.4	3.2	-0.8	0	2	0
R.BURKHEAD	HOU	RB	1.6	3.1	-1.5	0	2	-4
J.WASHINGTON	PIT	WR	3	3.1	-0.1	0	2	-5
K.TONEY	NYG	WR	1.8	3	-1.2	0	2	-10
R.JONES	TB	RB	-0.6	2.8	-3.4	4	0	0
D.ESKRIDGE	SEA	WR	3.8	2.7	1.1	2	1	6
R.COBB	GB	WR	4.3	2.6	1.7	1	1	29
J.PATTERSON	WAS	RB	0.9	2.5	-1.6	2	1	-3
K.HILL	GB	RB	1.4	2.5	-1.1	5	0	0
M.BROWN	MIA	RB	1.6	2.5	-0.9	5	0	0
J.JACKSON	LAC	RB	1.7	2.5	-0.8	1	1	-2
T.JOHNSON	JAX	WR	1.6	2.3	-0.7	0	1	-3
D.MIMS	NYJ	WR	5	2.1	2.9	0	1	30
J.HASTY	SF	RB	8.8	2.1	6.7	1	1	0
R.STEVENSON	NE	RB	0.1	2.1	-2	1	1	-1
A.MATTISON	MIN	RB	1.6	2	-0.4	1	1	-3
D.DALLAS	SEA	RB	2	2	0	1	1	-3
M.BREIDA	BUF	RB	0.4	2	-1.6	4	0	0
J.MCKISSIC	WAS	RB	0.8	1.9	-1.1	1	1	-9
S.MICHEL	LA	RB	0.2	0.5	-0.3	1	0	0

WEEK 2 TRADE TARGETS

During the season, the main purpose of using my Expected Fantasy Points model is to help you win trades. Remember, we want to buy players who are getting unlucky, and sell players who are getting lucky. Here’s a more general overview of my trading strategy. In addition, I posted a trade value chart yesterday with values for every player.

You should look at the data and come to your own conclusions, but several guys jump out to me.

WEEK 2 BUY-LOW

MIKE DAVIS

I liked Mike Davis’ projected workload coming into the season, and I am even more confident after seeing his Week 1 results. While Davis finished with a disappointing 10.2 PPR points, he saw 15 carries and 6 targets. That translated into 19.4 expected fantasy points (xFP), which was seventh among running backs in Week 1. He played 74.6% of the snaps and received 21 of Atlanta’s 30 running back opportunities (carries + targets) for the game.

If Davis saw this many opportunities on in a blowout loss, imagine what his volume could look like on a better day for the offense. He was heavily involved in the passing game, and he projects to be the primary goal-line back over backup Cordarelle Patterson.

In addition to the volume, Davis’s talent is underrated. In 2020, Davis finished second only to Nick Chubb with 0.26 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt. He also was solid in the passing game, finishing 12^th of 46 qualified backs in PFF receiving grade.

Nobody is going to argue that Davis is the most talented back in the NFL, but he is a solid all-around player. In the 12 games he was active without Christian McCaffrey last year, Davis averaged a very respectable 16.8 expected fantasy points per game and proved he can handle a starting workload.

If the Davis manager is scared of Atlanta’s offense, look to trade someone like James Robinson for him. The Wolf and I both have Davis ranked higher for the rest of the season.

CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE

I had major question marks about CEH’s workload coming into 2021. Over the first six games of 2020, he received a true RB1 level workload, averaging 21.5 xFP per game. He was handling most of the carries and playing a decent role in the passing game. His raw fantasy point totals weren’t great mostly due to poor touchdown luck, but he looked primed for positive regression in the second half of the season.

Then, the Chiefs signed Le’Veon Bell, and CEH’s workload fell off a cliff. He barely played half of the snaps and averaged only 11.5 xFP per game after the signing. Bell is gone now, but partially due to injury, Edwards-Helaire wasn’t able to fully recapture his early-season workload even after Bell became irrelevant down the stretch.

Thankfully for CEH owners, he played 72.3% of the snaps in Week 1 and dominated the team’s running back opportunities. Backup Darrel Williams had one carry, while CEH saw the remaining 14 carries and all three targets out of the backfield.

His 10.2 total points don’t jump off the page, but if Edwards-Helaire maintains a 70+% snap share and dominates touches like he did this week, he is going to have a workload closer to the first 6 weeks of 2020, which was elite. Kansas City trailed almost all of the game, and his 12.7 xFP will drastically increase if he maintains his bell-cow status in more positive game scripts in the future.

ALLEN ROBINSON

Robinson also posted disappointing results in Week 1 on impressive volume. Andy Dalton fed him a team-high 11 targets in a game where the Bears struggled to generate offense against a solid Rams defense. He only saw 42 air yards and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 3.8, but look for those numbers to increase next week.

In 2020, Robinson’s aDOT was 9.6. He fell slightly under the league average of 10.6, but he made up for it with elite target volume, which I expect to continue throughout 2021.

Robinson finished the week 11^th in targets and xFP at the position, which is right around where he was drafted. He has proven to be a target hog who produces WR1 numbers in the Chicago offense, so take advantage of any potential Week 1 discount.

WEEK 2 SELL-HIGH

NICK CHUBB

In 2020, Chubb played 52.3% of the snaps in his healthy games. This was my pre-draft analysis of Chubb:

Chubb is a great player, but his low snap share and lack of receiving role limit his upside. Chubb made up for his lack of volume with elite talent and efficiency last year and still finished as the PPR RB7 on a per-game basis in 2020 after adjusting for in-game injury. He is a great player, but it is hard to see a ceiling much higher than his 2020 results without significantly more volume.

Here is The Wolf’s fantasy philosophy from his excellent 2021 Investing Guide, which I completely agree with:

I’m 100% an upside chaser. Always have been, and the great Scott Barrett explains clearly why that’s the right philosophy here.

To sum up his research: every fantasy season boils down to a small handful of “League-Winners,” and the rest simply don’t matter. If you owned Christian McCaffrey in 2019, you had a 48% chance of making your championship, regardless of who you surrounded him with. Insanity.

While frustrating for “analysts” (addicts) like myself who pour 12+ hours a day researching hundreds of players, perhaps you’ll be comforted knowing your job is unearthing only 2-3 true game-changers.

Thus, every one of your 15-20 “at bats” should be homerun hacks at finding these guys.

Chubb played an almost identical 52.5% of the snaps in Week 1, and his role remains unchanged. Given the same role, I see no path to league-winning upside, barring an injury to Kareem Hunt. He’s already maximizing the efficiency of his touches. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry last year and scored 12 times in 12 games, outperforming his expected value of just under 8.4 touchdowns.

Chubb’s 22.1-point Week 1 looks great, but he scored twice despite splitting goal line carries with Hunt. Hunt also out-targeted Chubb four to two.

I would much rather have a player like Joe Mixon who has the upside of a clear bell-cow and outproduced Chubb 21.5 to 10.6 in xFP this week. It’s not that I don’t like Chubb as a player, it’s just that he has enough value to return a player with legitimate league-winning upside.

ANTONIO BROWN

Antonio Brown looked great on Thursday Night Football, catching a long touchdown on his way to scoring 23.7 PPR points. Brown put up a respectable seven targets, 144 air yards, and 14.2 xFP, but I’m not sure how sustainable those numbers are.

Tom Brady attempted 50 passes on Thursday, much higher than his 38.1 per game number from last year. Brown’s seven targets were only good for a 14% target share, as Chris Godwin led the team with 28% of the targets. With Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski also competing for targets, it will be hard for Brown to consistently see enough volume when the total pass attempts regress to normal levels. He will certainly have some big games, but predicting who will get targets week to week will be difficult.

I would rather trade Brown for a player like Courtland Sutton (plus some other depth), who is also talented, and projects to consistently lead his team in targets in the wake of Jerry Jeudy’s high-ankle sprain. Another option is to include him in a bigger offer for one of the buy-low players above.

DALLAS GOEDERT

Managers expected a TE1 when they drafted Goedert, but his draft price assumed that teammate Zach Ertz would not play a major role. He out-snapped Ertz in Week 1, but Ertz was leading in snaps before exiting (and later returning) with a hamstring injury. Goedert only ran a route on 27 of Hurts’ 40 dropbacks, a 67.5% rate that likely would have been even lower if Ertz played the entire game.

A touchdown buoyed Goedert’s solid 14.2 PPR point week, but he still only saw five targets and 34 air yards. He finished tied for third on the team with Miles Sanders in targets, and he could fall even farther in the pecking order with a fully healthy Ertz next week.

I would try to attach a depth piece with Goedert to upgrade to a player like Tyler Higbee, Logan Thomas, or Noah Fant. Higbee and Thomas are running routes on nearly every passing play, and Fant has an opportunity to be the number two option in Denver’s passing game without Jeudy.

Week 1 TE Leaders by Route%

1. Tyler Higbee – 96% (up from 53%, which ranked 31st)
2. Logan Thomas – 92%
3. Travis Kelce – 85%
4. TJ Hockenson – 84%
5. Kyle Pitts – 79%

Here was the upside argument for Higbee. After tonight, I'm EXTREMELY bullish pic.twitter.com/XZAZXtrXqI

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 13, 2021

FINAL THOUGHTS

That’s all I have for Week 2. Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check back next week for an updated trade value chart and more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!