Helmet scouting can be dangerous. Usually, that takes the form of “I’m not taking a player from (insert college here) because those players don’t work out.” Not that it’s without merit. The last boom wide receiver from the University of Tennessee was Dont’e Stallworth, drafted a quarter-century ago. Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud began to curb the stigma around Ohio State quarterbacks being mediocre in the pros, but both have struggled the last couple of years.
In the NFL, we have a number of narratives floating around the San Francisco 49ers, including the history of the Kyle Shanahan & John Lynch regime’s approach to drafting running backs. Any successful back during this time had no substantial draft capital, and the one who did, so far, was Elijah Mitchell (6th-round pick), who may have carved out a decent career, were he not bogged down by injury.
But the list of backs with higher 49ers draft capital than Mitchell includes Trey Sermon (3rd round), Tyrion Davis-Price (3rd round), Joe Williams (4th round), Isaac Guerendo (4th round), and Jordan James (5th round). And the ones who carved out success began their careers as undrafted free agents, such as Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Jordan Mason, or were acquired via trade, like Christian McCaffrey.
So, it’s very easy to look at the latest 3rd round pick, Kaelon Black, and think “here we go again” and count him out in fantasy, but should it be so easy?
2026 CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY HANDCUFF: KAELON BLACK VS JORDAN JAMES
KAELON BLACK FANTASY OUTLOOK
It doesn’t help that Kaelon Black was somewhat literally a man among boys before hitting a 1,000-yard rushing season in college. Technically in his sixth collegiate year, Kaelon turned 24 years old last October. Jeremiyah Love will be eyeing his second contract, having three full NFL seasons under his belt before turning 24.
Kyle Shanahan said that Kaelon was the 49ers 2nd-best graded running back in the 2026 class, but how much is that really saying when the 2nd-best back in a lot of people’s minds wasn’t even the primary back on their own team, such as Jadarian Price?
Not that Kaelon was the primary back on his team either. He got out-carried by Hoosiers teammate and UDFA Roman Hemby, a five-year collegiate player himself, 230 to 186. Although Kaelon was more efficient per-carry at 5.6-to-4.9 and did find the end zone ten times compared to Hemby’s seven, none of NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, FantasyPros’ Matthew Jones, or The Beast author Dane Brugler had Kaelon going sooner than the 5th round, and Brugler’s the only one who had him ranked higher than Roman Hemby!
So, what do the 49ers see that most people don’t?
You can see the potential on film. He’s light on his feet and keeps his legs churning to grind out yards. The fact that it took until age 24 to make a name for himself will continue to cast doubt on whether these attributes will translate once he sees NFL speed. He doesn’t enter the pros as a subpar athlete, as noted by his RAS score, but it further begs the question why he didn’t show out earlier if it wasn’t for a lack of athleticism.
More than willing to hold his own in pass protection, showing out in this area may be critical to earning snaps over who is generally considered his main competition for the 49ers’ RB2 gig, 2025 5th-round pick Jordan James.
JORDAN JAMES FANTASY OUTLOOK
James is assumed to be Black’s main competition, based on the limited usage we saw last season. A broken finger during camp in August 2025 kept us from knowing if he could lock down the RB2 role last year. The Niners subsequently traded for Brian Robinson Jr., who immediately overstepped Isaac Guerendo for the spot. It was only six carries for 28 yards in San Francisco’s final playoff game, but after being inactive the first 14 weeks, James earned his way onto the active roster, according to Shanahan last December, leaving Guerendo to sit out the remainder of the season, saying:
“It was more about how Jordan James has been running the ball in practice and stuff,” said Shanahan. “He’s been doing it for a while. It would have to take an injury and stuff for Jordan to get in there, but if that did happen, we thought he had earned that.”
James didn’t come in with the athletic profile of Black, but showed more change-of-direction and lateral cut ability in college than Black has generally been given credit for. He declared for the draft after just his third season and his first in a full-time role at Oregon after Bucky Irving declared in 2024. He added a 26-209-0 receiving line to 1,267 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, showcasing some mild upside as a receiver, though his good-but-not-great college target share and PlayerProfiler dominator rating don’t make him stand out from the pack.
While Kaelon Black’s receiving role was basically non-existent at Indiana, he did see mild usage during his time at James Madison University, going 44-431-6 in his final two seasons there. So while neither one is a lock for a meaningful receiving role for fantasy purposes, the fact that James at least had a role while playing in a Power 4 conference may give him an edge there.
KAELON BLACK VS JORDAN JAMES: WHO’S THE BETTER BET?
Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model scored them at 66, in a range of scores where Blake Corum has been the ceiling, with a floor of Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Not great, but still, give me Jordan James by a nose right now, in an offense that’s seen its fair share of uninspiring running back prospects produce well when given the work. Black may have the edge in draft capital, but not all draft years are the same.
The 49ers vow to reduce McCaffrey’s workload just like they have every off-season, and I find it hard to buy into there being enough of a split to make two fantasy-relevant backs as long as McCaffrey is healthy, so I’m still acquiring the Niners’ RB2 as strictly a handcuff and if I’m wrong, then it’ll be a pleasant surprise. But now watch, given the history of how undrafted backs have shown out under Kyle Shanahan, we’ll be talking about Sincere McCormick in a month.
