Last week, I told you all to sell Derrick Henry and I did just that in the one league I had him in. I moved Henry and Brian Robinson for Bijan Robinson and Cam Akers.
For context, it’s a fairly shallow 10-team league and Brian Robinson was sitting on my bench with no room to start. I have already dropped Akers since. As fantasy fate always does, Henry and B-Rob had solid outings, and Bijan, not so much. However, I’m pleased with the deal I made because I’m not playing for one week. I’m playing for a season.
This is the most important concept and something I’ve been trying to reiterate every week. We live in a world that is very reactionary — so and so put up these points this week, he’s a stud. However, the reality is that the only thing that carries over from week to week is talent (and sometimes opportunity). I aim to have the best team by week 15 of the season so I can take down the playoffs.
Just keep in mind, that I’m hyper-focused on the long term when making buy-low, sell-high recommendations. In many cases, we’re looking at guys who have been underperforming, and, as such, it isn’t always an exact science on which week will be the one where they break out of it. As long as we’re betting on talent, we should end up right often enough to get it done.
Let’s dive into our Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) chart for Week 6 and then our Week 7 players to buy-low and sell-high.
WEEK 6 EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS
Expected fantasy points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of xFP, click here.
The main purpose of using the xFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers and buy players who see plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.
For a general overview of RSJ Jackson Barrett’s trading strategy, click here. In addition, we publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.
Below, you can find xFP data for each player, including average carries, targets, and air yards. Below the chart are our Week 7 players to buy-low and sell-high.
Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.
Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players we want to buy low and sell high in Week 7.
| Player | POS | G | Actual | Expected | Difference | Rushes | Targets | Air Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.KAMARA, NO | RB | 3 | 19.2 | 25.3 | -6.1 | 17.3 | 8.3 | -3 |
| A.EKELER, LAC | RB | 2 | 18.3 | 23 | -4.7 | 15 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| J.CHASE, CIN | WR | 6 | 20.6 | 22.6 | -2 | 0.2 | 12.2 | 96.5 |
| J.JACOBS, LV | RB | 6 | 14.9 | 21.7 | -6.8 | 17.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| K.ALLEN, LAC | WR | 5 | 24.9 | 21.2 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 11 | 105.6 |
| P.NACUA, LA | WR | 6 | 20.4 | 20.9 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 11.7 | 106.2 |
| S.DIGGS, BUF | WR | 6 | 23.2 | 20.5 | 2.7 | 0 | 11 | 117.7 |
| J.JEFFERSON, MIN | WR | 5 | 21.8 | 20.2 | 1.6 | 0 | 10.6 | 113.2 |
| S.BARKLEY, NYG | RB | 3 | 16.8 | 20.2 | -3.4 | 17.7 | 5.3 | 3 |
| C.MCCAFFREY, SF | RB | 6 | 24.7 | 20 | 4.7 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 1 |
| T.HILL, MIA | WR | 6 | 26.8 | 19.7 | 7.1 | 0.2 | 9.8 | 124.2 |
| T.POLLARD, DAL | RB | 6 | 15.3 | 19.6 | -4.3 | 16 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| C.KUPP, LA | WR | 2 | 23.8 | 19.5 | 4.3 | 0 | 10.5 | 125 |
| D.ADAMS, LV | WR | 6 | 17.4 | 19.1 | -1.7 | 0 | 9.8 | 107.3 |
| A.BROWN, PHI | WR | 6 | 20.2 | 19.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 10 | 140.5 |
| M.PITTMAN, IND | WR | 6 | 14.8 | 18.3 | -3.5 | 0 | 10 | 83.5 |
| A.THIELEN, CAR | WR | 6 | 21.1 | 18.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 9.8 | 76.8 |
| A.ST. BROWN, DET | WR | 5 | 20 | 18.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 10 | 74.6 |
| K.WALKER, SEA | RB | 5 | 18.3 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 16.6 | 2.6 | -3.2 |
| Z.MOSS, IND | RB | 5 | 20.7 | 17.6 | 3.1 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| K.WILLIAMS, LA | RB | 6 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 1 | 16.2 | 4 | 2.7 |
| A.MATTISON, MIN | RB | 6 | 11.7 | 17.2 | -5.5 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 2.7 |
| M.BROWN, ARI | WR | 6 | 13.9 | 17.2 | -3.3 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 117 |
| G.WILSON, NYJ | WR | 6 | 13.5 | 17.2 | -3.7 | 0 | 9.2 | 94.8 |
| C.OLAVE, NO | WR | 6 | 13.2 | 17 | -3.8 | 0 | 8.8 | 127 |
| J.MEYERS, LV | WR | 5 | 17.5 | 17 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 8.6 | 86.8 |
| T.KELCE, KC | TE | 5 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 0.8 | 0 | 9.2 | 59.4 |
| T.ETIENNE, JAX | RB | 6 | 19.2 | 16.7 | 2.5 | 18.8 | 4 | -3.5 |
| D.MONTGOMERY, DET | RB | 5 | 17 | 16.6 | 0.4 | 18.8 | 2 | -1.2 |
| J.MIXON, CIN | RB | 6 | 11.5 | 16.4 | -4.9 | 16 | 3.5 | -7.7 |
| D.SWIFT, PHI | RB | 6 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 | 14.2 | 4.5 | -0.2 |
| M.WILLIAMS, LAC | WR | 3 | 16.7 | 16.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 102.3 |
| B.ROBINSON, ATL | RB | 6 | 15.8 | 16.2 | -0.4 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| M.EVANS, TB | WR | 5 | 16.1 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 8.2 | 109.4 |
| Z.FLOWERS, BAL | WR | 6 | 13.2 | 15.5 | -2.3 | 1 | 8 | 67 |
| R.MOSTERT, MIA | RB | 6 | 23.2 | 15.4 | 7.8 | 12.5 | 3.3 | -3.5 |
| M.SANDERS, CAR | RB | 5 | 8.8 | 15.3 | -6.5 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 |
| I.PACHECO, KC | RB | 6 | 14.5 | 15.1 | -0.6 | 14.5 | 3.2 | -6.7 |
| G.PICKENS, PIT | WR | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.2 | 8 | 99.2 |
| D.HOPKINS, TEN | WR | 6 | 10.8 | 14.9 | -4.1 | 0 | 7.8 | 103.2 |
| A.COOPER, CLE | WR | 5 | 12.9 | 14.8 | -1.9 | 0 | 7.8 | 126.8 |
| C.KIRK, JAX | WR | 6 | 14 | 14.5 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 8.2 | 67.2 |
| M.THOMAS, NO | WR | 6 | 10.7 | 14.4 | -3.7 | 0 | 7.8 | 84.8 |
| J.WADDLE, MIA | WR | 5 | 13.1 | 14.3 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 7 | 60.4 |
| R.DOUBS, GB | WR | 5 | 12.4 | 14.3 | -1.9 | 0 | 7.4 | 78.4 |
| R.WHITE, TB | RB | 5 | 10.6 | 14.2 | -3.6 | 14 | 3.4 | -4.2 |
| T.HOCKENSON, MIN | TE | 6 | 12.7 | 14.2 | -1.5 | 0 | 7.8 | 53.5 |
| R.STEVENSON, NE | RB | 6 | 10.6 | 14.1 | -3.5 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| B.AIYUK, SF | WR | 5 | 16.5 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 7.4 | 116.2 |
| C.RIDLEY, JAX | WR | 6 | 12.6 | 14.1 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 88.8 |
| C.GODWIN, TB | WR | 5 | 12.4 | 13.9 | -1.5 | 0 | 7.4 | 69.8 |
| K.BOURNE, NE | WR | 6 | 11.9 | 13.9 | -2 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 87.7 |
| T.HIGGINS, CIN | WR | 5 | 8.2 | 13.9 | -5.7 | 0 | 7.2 | 85.2 |
| D.SMITH, PHI | WR | 6 | 12.2 | 13.8 | -1.6 | 0 | 7.3 | 94.7 |
| D.PIERCE, HOU | RB | 6 | 8.6 | 13.8 | -5.2 | 16.2 | 2 | 0.8 |
| T.LOCKETT, SEA | WR | 5 | 12.4 | 13.6 | -1.2 | 0 | 7 | 74.6 |
| D.LONDON, ATL | WR | 6 | 12 | 13.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 7.2 | 75.5 |
| C.LAMB, DAL | WR | 6 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 7 | 61.3 |
| T.ATWELL, LA | WR | 6 | 11.8 | 13.4 | -1.6 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 78.5 |
| E.MOORE, CLE | WR | 5 | 7.4 | 13.4 | -6 | 1.6 | 7.2 | 54 |
| M.ANDREWS, BAL | TE | 5 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 54.8 |
| N.COLLINS, HOU | WR | 6 | 17 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 0 | 7 | 80.8 |
| R.WOODS, HOU | WR | 6 | 8.5 | 13.1 | -4.6 | 0 | 7.2 | 66.8 |
| D.HENRY, TEN | RB | 6 | 14.5 | 13 | 1.5 | 16.3 | 2.2 | -8.7 |
| J.GIBBS, DET | RB | 4 | 9.7 | 13 | -3.3 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| D.MOORE, CHI | WR | 6 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 88.2 |
| D.METCALF, SEA | WR | 5 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 0.8 | 0 | 6.6 | 88.8 |
| J.DOWNS, IND | WR | 6 | 10.3 | 12.7 | -2.4 | 0 | 6.8 | 44 |
| J.FORD, CLE | RB | 5 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 0.5 | 13.4 | 3 | 8.8 |
| S.LAPORTA, DET | TE | 6 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 0.7 | 0 | 7 | 53 |
| T.MCLAURIN, WAS | WR | 6 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 7 | 75.5 |
| E.ENGRAM, JAX | TE | 6 | 11 | 12.4 | -1.4 | 0 | 7.3 | 29.7 |
| D.WALLER, NYG | TE | 6 | 9.4 | 12.4 | -3 | 0 | 6.8 | 56.3 |
| J.COOK, BUF | RB | 6 | 11.7 | 12.3 | -0.6 | 12.5 | 3 | 6 |
| B.ROBINSON, WAS | RB | 6 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 1.9 | 12.8 | 2.2 | -5.2 |
| K.PITTS, ATL | TE | 6 | 8.8 | 12.1 | -3.3 | 0.2 | 6.3 | 72 |
| T.BOYD, CIN | WR | 6 | 9.4 | 12 | -2.6 | 0 | 6.8 | 36 |
| Z.JONES, JAX | WR | 3 | 9.3 | 12 | -2.7 | 0 | 6 | 65 |
| Z.ERTZ, ARI | TE | 6 | 7.8 | 11.9 | -4.1 | 0 | 6.5 | 51.3 |
| C.SUTTON, DEN | WR | 6 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 0.3 | 0 | 6.2 | 59 |
| K.HERBERT, CHI | RB | 5 | 10.3 | 11.7 | -1.4 | 10.2 | 3.6 | -1.4 |
| J.WARREN, PIT | RB | 5 | 10 | 11.6 | -1.6 | 6.8 | 5 | -7 |
| J.REED, GB | WR | 5 | 9.6 | 11.5 | -1.9 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 74.6 |
| J.CONNER, ARI | RB | 5 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 0.6 | 13.6 | 2 | -4.4 |
| D.ACHANE, MIA | RB | 4 | 25.4 | 11.3 | 14.1 | 9.5 | 2.8 | -6.8 |
| D.JOHNSON, PIT | WR | 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | -3.4 | 0 | 6 | 78 |
| D.SAMUEL, SF | WR | 6 | 12 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 3 | 5.3 | 39 |
| J.JEUDY, DEN | WR | 5 | 8.4 | 11.2 | -2.8 | 0 | 5.8 | 70.2 |
| J.PALMER, LAC | WR | 5 | 8.2 | 11 | -2.8 | 0 | 5.6 | 74.2 |
| N.CHUBB, CLE | RB | 2 | 11.6 | 11 | 0.6 | 14 | 2 | 0.5 |
| J.DOBBINS, BAL | RB | 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| D.SCHULTZ, HOU | TE | 6 | 10.1 | 10.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 5.7 | 41 |
| J.ADDISON, MIN | WR | 6 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 1.5 | 0 | 5.7 | 70.7 |
| B.HALL, NYJ | RB | 6 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 11 | 3 | -1 |
| W.ROBINSON, NYG | WR | 4 | 9.2 | 10.7 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 22.3 |
| D.GOEDERT, PHI | TE | 6 | 9.5 | 10.5 | -1 | 0 | 6 | 33.8 |
| J.MINGO, CAR | WR | 5 | 5.7 | 10.5 | -4.8 | 0 | 5.8 | 65 |
| A.JONES, GB | RB | 2 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 | -3 |
| C.KMET, CHI | TE | 6 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 32.7 |
| L.THOMAS, WAS | TE | 5 | 9.5 | 10.4 | -0.9 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 34.2 |
| T.ALLGEIER, ATL | RB | 6 | 7.9 | 10.4 | -2.5 | 12.5 | 1.7 | -1.8 |
| D.CHARK, CAR | WR | 5 | 8.9 | 10.4 | -1.5 | 0 | 5.4 | 77.2 |
| C.SAMUEL, WAS | WR | 6 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 36.7 |
| A.DILLON, GB | RB | 5 | 6.2 | 10.2 | -4 | 12.8 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| J.WILLIAMS, DEN | RB | 5 | 7.4 | 10.1 | -2.7 | 9.6 | 3 | -2.4 |
| J.SMITH, ATL | TE | 6 | 9.5 | 10 | -0.5 | 0 | 5.3 | 38.3 |
| K.OSBORN, MIN | WR | 6 | 8.4 | 9.9 | -1.5 | 0 | 5.2 | 44.7 |
| D.JACKSON, IND | RB | 2 | 1.9 | 9.8 | -7.9 | 6.5 | 3 | -3 |
| G.DAVIS, BUF | WR | 6 | 12.8 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 5 | 75 |
| J.FERGUSON, DAL | TE | 6 | 7.7 | 9.7 | -2 | 0 | 4.8 | 20.7 |
| M.GALLUP, DAL | WR | 6 | 6.4 | 9.6 | -3.2 | 0 | 5.3 | 59 |
| N.HARRIS, PIT | RB | 5 | 6.7 | 9.6 | -2.9 | 12.6 | 1.8 | 6.8 |
| J.DOTSON, WAS | WR | 6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | -3.4 | 0 | 5.2 | 42 |
| T.MARSHALL, CAR | WR | 5 | 5.5 | 9.5 | -4 | 0 | 5.4 | 40.8 |
| T.HIGBEE, LA | TE | 6 | 7.2 | 9.4 | -2.2 | 0 | 5.3 | 36.5 |
| J.KELLEY, LAC | RB | 5 | 5.9 | 9.3 | -3.4 | 11.6 | 1 | 3.4 |
| A.ROBINSON, PIT | WR | 5 | 6.1 | 9.3 | -3.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 33.6 |
| D.SLAYTON, NYG | WR | 6 | 6.8 | 9.2 | -2.4 | 0 | 5 | 68.7 |
| B.COOKS, DAL | WR | 5 | 6.4 | 9.2 | -2.8 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 52.6 |
| N.BROWN, HOU | WR | 2 | 5.3 | 9.2 | -3.9 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 14.5 |
| J.REYNOLDS, DET | WR | 6 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0 | 4.5 | 55 |
| R.SHAHEED, NO | WR | 6 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 82 |
| C.HUBBARD, CAR | RB | 6 | 8.2 | 8.8 | -0.6 | 9 | 2.5 | -4.2 |
| K.GAINWELL, PHI | RB | 5 | 5.9 | 8.8 | -2.9 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 9.2 |
| R.RICE, KC | WR | 6 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 25.2 |
| D.FOREMAN, CHI | RB | 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | -2.7 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
| E.ELLIOTT, NE | RB | 6 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 8.2 | 2.7 | -4.8 |
| J.WILLIAMS, NO | RB | 2 | 5.1 | 8.7 | -3.6 | 13.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| J.HILL, BAL | RB | 5 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 7.4 | 2 | -6.8 |
| J.SMITH-NJIGBA, SEA | WR | 5 | 5.4 | 8.6 | -3.2 | 0 | 5 | 20.4 |
| J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, NE | WR | 5 | 4.5 | 8.6 | -4.1 | 0 | 5 | 27 |
| T.BURKS, TEN | WR | 3 | 5.6 | 8.5 | -2.9 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 78.3 |
| H.HENRY, NE | TE | 6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | -0.3 | 0 | 4.7 | 43 |
| K.GRANSON, IND | TE | 6 | 6.5 | 8.4 | -1.9 | 0 | 4.3 | 31.5 |
| G.EDWARDS, BAL | RB | 6 | 6.8 | 8.4 | -1.6 | 12 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| C.AUSTIN, PIT | WR | 5 | 6.5 | 8.2 | -1.7 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 54 |
| L.MUSGRAVE, GB | TE | 5 | 6.8 | 8.1 | -1.3 | 0 | 4.6 | 35.4 |
| T.SPEARS, TEN | RB | 6 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| T.CONKLIN, NYJ | TE | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | -0.9 | 0 | 4.5 | 33.7 |
| D.PARKER, NE | WR | 5 | 5.3 | 8 | -2.7 | 0 | 4.4 | 52.2 |
| K.TONEY, KC | WR | 6 | 5.3 | 8 | -2.7 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 9.3 |
| J.TAYLOR, IND | RB | 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | -2.1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| K.BOUTTE, NE | WR | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | -7.9 | 0 | 4 | 84 |
| D.KNOX, BUF | TE | 6 | 4.9 | 7.8 | -2.9 | 0 | 4 | 25 |
| S.PERINE, DEN | RB | 6 | 6.7 | 7.8 | -1.1 | 4 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| R.MOORE, ARI | WR | 6 | 7.2 | 7.6 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 8.3 |
| C.OKONKWO, TEN | TE | 6 | 4.9 | 7.6 | -2.7 | 0 | 4.3 | 29.2 |
| R.JOHNSON, CHI | RB | 5 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| L.MURRAY, BUF | RB | 6 | 6.1 | 7.5 | -1.4 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| G.EVERETT, LAC | TE | 5 | 6.9 | 7.4 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 11.8 |
| C.WATSON, GB | WR | 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 88.5 |
| D.NJOKU, CLE | TE | 5 | 6.6 | 7.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 4.4 | 16.2 |
| G.KITTLE, SF | TE | 6 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 32 |
| O.BECKHAM, BAL | WR | 4 | 5.1 | 7.2 | -2.1 | 0 | 3.8 | 38 |
| N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TEN | WR | 6 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 3.8 | 31.3 |
| A.LAZARD, NYJ | WR | 6 | 6.8 | 7.1 | -0.3 | 0 | 3.8 | 51 |
| M.HOLLINS, ATL | WR | 6 | 5.1 | 7.1 | -2 | 0 | 3.8 | 51.2 |
| J.JOHNSON, NO | TE | 3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | -2.5 | 0 | 4 | 23.3 |
| K.HUNT, CLE | RB | 3 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 2 | -1.7 |
| A.PIERCE, IND | WR | 6 | 4.3 | 6.9 | -2.6 | 0 | 3.7 | 58.8 |
| H.HURST, CAR | TE | 6 | 5.3 | 6.8 | -1.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 26 |
| P.CAMPBELL, NYG | WR | 6 | 4.1 | 6.8 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.8 | 16 |
| S.MOORE, KC | WR | 6 | 5.6 | 6.7 | -1.1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 31 |
| T.PALMER, TB | WR | 5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | -0.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 47.4 |
| S.AHMED, MIA | RB | 4 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 3 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| D.KINCAID, BUF | TE | 5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 3.8 | 12.4 |
| A.GIBSON, WAS | RB | 6 | 5.9 | 6.3 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| P.FREIERMUTH, PIT | TE | 4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 21.3 |
| D.DOUGLAS, NE | WR | 5 | 4.6 | 6.3 | -1.7 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 41.8 |
| C.OTTON, TB | TE | 5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | -0.3 | 0 | 3.4 | 20.6 |
| M.GESICKI, NE | TE | 6 | 4.9 | 6.2 | -1.3 | 0 | 3.3 | 30.3 |
| N.AGHOLOR, BAL | WR | 6 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 | 3.3 | 44 |
| K.MILLER, NO | RB | 4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | -0.8 | 6 | 2 | -1.3 |
| P.TAYLOR, GB | RB | 4 | 2.7 | 6 | -3.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| B.BERRIOS, MIA | WR | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 30.3 |
| M.BREIDA, NYG | RB | 6 | 5.1 | 5.9 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| D.THOMPKINS, TB | WR | 5 | 4.9 | 5.9 | -1 | 0.6 | 3 | 21.6 |
| D.COOK, NYJ | RB | 6 | 3.8 | 5.8 | -2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | -3.7 |
| Z.CHARBONNET, SEA | RB | 5 | 4.1 | 5.8 | -1.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | -3.4 |
| M.GORDON, BAL | RB | 2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 9 |
| D.MOONEY, CHI | WR | 6 | 5.2 | 5.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 3.2 | 37 |
| J.MCKINNON, KC | RB | 6 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| R.CRACRAFT, MIA | WR | 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 25 |
| R.BATEMAN, BAL | WR | 5 | 3.6 | 5.6 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 29.4 |
| J.MCLAUGHLIN, DEN | RB | 6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | -4.8 |
| K.RAYMOND, DET | WR | 6 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 35 |
| D.SINGLETARY, HOU | RB | 6 | 4.6 | 5.5 | -0.9 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| D.PARHAM, LAC | TE | 5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0 | 2.2 | 14.8 |
| D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLE | WR | 5 | 2.7 | 5.4 | -2.7 | 0 | 3 | 34.2 |
| A.TRAUTMAN, DEN | TE | 6 | 3.7 | 5.4 | -1.7 | 0 | 2.7 | 14 |
| D.SMYTHE, MIA | TE | 6 | 3.9 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 0 | 2.7 | 17.5 |
| D.HARTY, BUF | WR | 6 | 4.8 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 21 |
| T.HUDSON, CIN | TE | 2 | 4.4 | 5.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| E.MITCHELL, SF | RB | 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | -2.4 | 6 | 1.3 | -6.7 |
| N.GRAY, KC | TE | 6 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 22.2 |
| D.WICKS, GB | WR | 5 | 4.5 | 5.1 | -0.6 | 0 | 2.8 | 31.8 |
| C.PARKINSON, SEA | TE | 5 | 3.9 | 4.9 | -1 | 0 | 2.8 | 20.4 |
| Q.JOHNSTON, LAC | WR | 5 | 2.1 | 4.9 | -2.8 | 0 | 2.6 | 30.2 |
| I.SMITH, CIN | TE | 4 | 2.3 | 4.8 | -2.5 | 0 | 2.8 | 13 |
| R.DOWDLE, DAL | RB | 6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | -0.3 | 4.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| K.VAUGHN, TB | RB | 3 | 1.3 | 4.8 | -3.5 | 5 | 1 | -1 |
| C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KC | RB | 6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | -0.3 | 5 | 1 | -3.2 |
| B.JOHNSON, DEN | WR | 6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0 | 2.2 | 22.8 |
| J.JENNINGS, SF | WR | 5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 2.4 | 32.2 |
| E.DEMERCADO, ARI | RB | 6 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -0.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| T.MCBRIDE, ARI | TE | 6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.5 | 17.7 |
| M.MIMS, DEN | WR | 6 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 2 | 41 |
| N.FANT, SEA | TE | 5 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0 | 2.4 | 17.6 |
| I.HODGINS, NYG | WR | 6 | 4.1 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 0 | 2.3 | 18.2 |
| K.INGRAM, ARI | RB | 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | -1.5 | 5.5 | 0.8 | -2 |
| C.TURNER, WAS | TE | 6 | 2.7 | 4.1 | -1.4 | 0 | 2 | 14.3 |
| T.IRWIN, CIN | WR | 5 | 3.3 | 4 | -0.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 21.8 |
| D.VAUGHN, DAL | RB | 5 | 2.2 | 4 | -1.8 | 4 | 1 | -0.6 |
| M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KC | WR | 6 | 3.1 | 3.9 | -0.8 | 0 | 2 | 33 |
| D.BROWN, WAS | WR | 6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | -1.3 | 0 | 1.8 | 30.2 |
| M.CARTER, NYJ | RB | 6 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3.5 |
| S.TOURE, GB | WR | 5 | 2.4 | 3.8 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.8 | 40 |
| T.BIGSBY, JAX | RB | 6 | 2.7 | 3.8 | -1.1 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| A.MCFARLAND, PIT | RB | 1 | 3.1 | 3.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| D.HARRIS, BUF | RB | 6 | 3.2 | 3.7 | -0.5 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0 |
| R.COBB, NYJ | WR | 6 | 1.2 | 3.7 | -2.5 | 0 | 2 | 14 |
| G.DULCICH, DEN | TE | 2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 2 | 11.5 |
| M.MAYER, LV | TE | 6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 1.8 | 14.8 |
| C.AKERS, MIN | RB | 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| B.POWELL, MIN | WR | 6 | 2.4 | 3.3 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 14.7 |
| A.ABDULLAH, LV | RB | 6 | 1.8 | 3.2 | -1.4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 3.3 |
| C.REYNOLDS, DET | RB | 6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.5 | -1.3 |
| F.MOREAU, NO | TE | 4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1.8 | 8 |
| J.BATES, WAS | TE | 6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.7 | 10.2 |
| M.GOODWIN, CLE | WR | 5 | 0.9 | 3.1 | -2.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 39 |
| R.PENNY, PHI | RB | 1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | -0.7 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| H.BRYANT, CLE | TE | 5 | 2.1 | 3 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| M.JONES, DET | WR | 6 | 1.1 | 3 | -1.9 | 0 | 1.7 | 13.3 |
| E.EZUKANMA, MIA | WR | 2 | 1.1 | 3 | -1.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4 |
| J.OLIVER, MIN | TE | 6 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.7 | 5.3 |
| C.MOORE, TEN | WR | 6 | 3.2 | 3 | 0.2 | 0 | 1.5 | 33.8 |
| Q.WATKINS, PHI | WR | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 0 | 1.7 | 6.7 |
| T.MONTGOMERY, NE | WR | 6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | -1.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 13.7 |
| L.SHENAULT, CAR | WR | 6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | -0.1 | 2 | 1.2 | -4.2 |
| J.HYATT, NYG | WR | 6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0 | 1.5 | 27.5 |
| T.SCOTT, CHI | WR | 6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 12.2 |
| W.MALLORY, IND | TE | 2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.5 | 27 |
| P.STRONG, CLE | RB | 5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 1 |
| H.RENFROW, LV | WR | 6 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.5 | 13.8 |
| J.TOLBERT, DAL | WR | 6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.5 | 18.8 |
| G.BRIGHTWELL, NYG | RB | 6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -1 |
| K.DRAKE, BAL | RB | 2 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | -2 |
| C.WILSON, MIA | WR | 4 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0 | 1.5 | 12 |
| K.TURPIN, DAL | WR | 6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 6.2 |
| A.HOOPER, LV | TE | 6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.5 | 8.2 |
| W.DISSLY, SEA | TE | 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 1.5 | 3 |
| J.AGNEW, JAX | WR | 5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 11.6 |
| D.DUVERNAY, BAL | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -1.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 14 |
| J.DEGUARA, GB | TE | 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| D.BELL, CLE | WR | 5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | -0.9 | 0 | 1.4 | 6.6 |
| J.MASON, SF | RB | 6 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Z.PASCAL, ARI | WR | 6 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.3 | 9.8 |
| M.HEATH, GB | WR | 3 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 | 0 | 1.3 | 14.7 |
| J.METCHIE, HOU | WR | 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 1.4 | 11.4 |
| J.BOBO, SEA | WR | 5 | 3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.2 | 6.4 |
| P.HENDERSHOT, DAL | TE | 3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 6 |
| E.HULL, IND | RB | 1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| L.SCHOONMAKER, DAL | TE | 6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 6.8 |
| R.RIVERS, LA | RB | 6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | -1.8 |
| T.SERMON, IND | RB | 4 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| O.ZACCHEAUS, PHI | WR | 6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.2 | 15.5 |
| S.TUCKER, TB | RB | 5 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 0.4 | -0.6 |
| I.SPILLER, LAC | RB | 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| R.BLACKSHEAR, CAR | RB | 2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| T.WILLIAMS, CIN | RB | 6 | 1.1 | 2 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 1 | -3.2 |
| J.AKINS, CLE | TE | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| P.DORSETT, DEN | WR | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| T.CHANDLER, MIN | RB | 6 | 1.9 | 2 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -1.2 |
| R.TONYAN, CHI | TE | 6 | 1.5 | 2 | -0.5 | 0 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
| I.MCKENZIE, IND | WR | 6 | 1.6 | 2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0 |
| T.TUCKER, LV | WR | 5 | 2.6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 20.6 |
| T.SHERFIELD, BUF | WR | 6 | 1.5 | 2 | -0.5 | 0 | 1.2 | 7.5 |
| B.SKOWRONEK, LA | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 1.9 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.3 |
| C.UZOMAH, NYJ | TE | 6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| J.ROSS, KC | WR | 6 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 0 | 1 | 8.3 |
| D.DALLAS, SEA | RB | 5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| B.SCOTT, PHI | RB | 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Z.WHITE, LV | RB | 6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1 |
| L.HUMPHREY, DEN | WR | 6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 6.7 |
| B.STRANGE, JAX | TE | 6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 7.7 |
| B.JORDAN, HOU | TE | 6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| K.HODGE, ATL | WR | 6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 9 |
| B.WRIGHT, DET | TE | 6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.3 |
| D.CARTER, LV | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| K.SHAKIR, BUF | WR | 6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 7.3 |
| M.PRUITT, ATL | TE | 6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| R.MCCLOUD, SF | WR | 6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| D.DAVIS, LAC | WR | 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -4.2 |
| B.PRINGLE, WAS | WR | 6 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 13 |
| N.ADKINS, DEN | TE | 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -0.4 | 0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| I.THOMAS, CAR | TE | 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.8 | 4.4 |
| M.ALIE-COX, IND | TE | 6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 11.7 |
| S.SHEPARD, NYG | WR | 6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 5 |
| T.TREMBLE, CAR | TE | 6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| M.BOONE, HOU | RB | 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -1.4 |
| Z.KNIGHT, DET | RB | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -2.5 |
| J.WHYLE, TEN | TE | 6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.8 |
| T.JONES, JAX | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.8 | 5.2 |
| D.JOHNSON, JAX | RB | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| C.BROOKS, MIA | RB | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| C.TILLMAN, CLE | WR | 4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -1 | 0 | 0.8 | 10 |
| E.GRAY, NYG | RB | 6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | -1.2 |
| K.KIRKWOOD, NO | WR | 6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -1.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
| E.DOTSON, LAC | RB | 4 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| K.KIEFT, TB | TE | 5 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 0.6 | 10.2 |
| C.BROWN, CIN | RB | 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -1.6 |
| R.BELL, SF | WR | 6 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 5.3 |
| A.IOSIVAS, CIN | WR | 6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.5 | 4.7 |
| B.BELL, KC | TE | 6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| L.FARRELL, JAX | TE | 6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| I.LIKELY, BAL | TE | 6 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.5 |
| D.BELLINGER, NYG | TE | 6 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 1 |
| M.WILCOX, CIN | TE | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| D.OGUNBOWALE, HOU | RB | 1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| C.EDMONDS, TB | RB | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| M.HARDMAN, NYJ | WR | 5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.6 | 6 |
| R.CHOSEN, MIA | WR | 4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 0.5 | 16 |
| C.JONES, CIN | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 2 |
| J.RUCKERT, NYJ | TE | 6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| S.MILLER, ATL | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| C.RODRIGUEZ, WAS | RB | 4 | 0.8 | 1 | -0.2 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 |
| X.HUTCHINSON, HOU | WR | 6 | 0.6 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| H.LUEPKE, DAL | RB | 6 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| D.WASHINGTON, PIT | TE | 5 | 0.4 | 1 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.6 | 1 |
| M.BOYKIN, PIT | WR | 5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| J.STOLL, PHI | TE | 6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| B.HOPKINS, LA | TE | 6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 |
| C.MANHERTZ, DEN | TE | 6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| P.BROWN, NE | TE | 6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| G.SWAIM, ARI | TE | 6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 |
| D.SAMPLE, CIN | TE | 6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.5 | -1.2 |
| T.QUITORIANO, HOU | TE | 6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| R.JARRETT, TB | WR | 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| D.WELLS, TB | TE | 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| S.SMARTT, LAC | TE | 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.4 |
| J.HILL, MIA | TE | 4 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| J.FUNK, IND | RB | 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| J.GRAHAM, NO | TE | 6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| T.KRAFT, GB | TE | 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| C.EVANS, CIN | RB | 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| L.CAGER, NYG | TE | 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| T.WESCO, TEN | TE | 6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| J.CROWDER, WAS | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.8 |
| C.KOLAR, BAL | TE | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.3 | 3 |
| X.GIPSON, NYJ | WR | 6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0 |
| G.DORTCH, ARI | WR | 6 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 6.2 |
| L.BOWDEN, NO | WR | 4 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| R.DWELLEY, SF | TE | 6 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
| J.MUNDT, MIN | TE | 6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| G.RICCI, CAR | TE | 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| A.GREEN, DET | WR | 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| M.LEWIS, CHI | TE | 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.5 |
| C.THOMPSON, SEA | WR | 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| B.SIMS, GB | TE | 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 |
| T.TAYLOR, CHI | WR | 6 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Q.MORRIS, BUF | TE | 6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 |
WEEK 7 BUY-LOW
DAVANTE ADAMS, WR LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
| PLAYER | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Davante Adams | WR | 6 | 17.4 | 19.1 | -1.7 | 0 | 9.8 | 107.3 |
This is a case of what I was highlighting above. Davante Adams is coming off of two stinker games, and now people are panicking about him. That’s way too reactionary! He’s only had nine targets the past two weeks as opposed to 41 targets the previous three weeks. That significant drop-off in targets is the obvious reason for the lack of production, but is it a real drop-off, or can it be explained?
I think there are several factors at play here:
1. Adams injured his shoulder a few games ago and has been playing through the injury. There’s no reason for long-term concern here, but it would make sense to ease up on him while he’s healing.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo has been in and out of the lineup with his own injuries, which has caused uneven quarterback play. Jimmy G is still banged up but, again, we’re not too concerned with a one or two-week absence.
3. The Green Bay revenge game was kind of hard to explain, but the Patriots game makes sense because Belichick always takes out the best opposing player. It was reasonable to expect a rough game for Adams while being double-teamed all day.
However, based on historical performance and numbers from the first month of the season, this seems like a minor blip and not a collapse. Additionally, we now have the squeaky wheel narrative happening, as Adams has recently been vocal about his lack of targets…
This makes me want Adams more, not less. We have seen that the alpha WR wanting more involvement usually gets what they want shortly. I would aggressively target Adams anywhere you can get him.
DEVONTA SMITH, WR PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
| PLAYER | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Devonta Smith | WR | 6 | 12.2 | 13.8 | -1.6 | 0 | 7.3 | 94.7 |
Here’s another WR who started the year on fire but is now coming off of two duds in a row. Much like Adams, I have optimism that better days are ahead for Devonta Smith.
The first piece of clarification here is that you should expect Smith to be an up-and-down player — expect some huge weeks mixed in with weeks where he disappears. It’s not a talent issue, he’s just the WR2 behind AJ Brown and he’s in that up-and-down tier alongside other WR2s like Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Williams, etc. Brown’s 30.3% target share dwarfs Smith’s, but the offense is electric enough to carry two viable fantasy receivers.
The reason I want to go after Smith this week is because of his hidden numbers. On the surface, he’s been bad the past two weeks, and even his 78 yards from three weeks ago seem OK but not great. However, he’s been getting targeted pretty consistently throughout these three games (25 targets), so a market correction in production seems imminent.
WEEK 7 SELL-HIGH
ADAM THIELEN, WR CAROLINA PANTHERS
| PLAYER | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Adam Thielen | WR | 6 | 21.1 | 18.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 9.8 | 76.8 |
Adam Thielen has been absolutely balling out this year. In fact, he is currently the WR3 in PPR leagues behind only Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. While this makes Thielen a draft-day steal, it is also an unsustainable pace.
This sell recommendation is based almost entirely on the expectation that the 33-year-old will end the season below his current mark, and as such, that means his production will have to decrease. That being said, if you are in a position to want to (or have to) ride out his current production and hope that this is just a magical year for him, then, by all means, do so. However, I like to cash in on players when they’ve hit their peak and try to get more bankable talent.
So first, what has Thielen been doing? Thielen has a 26.8% target share which is actually not that crazy compared to some other WR in the league. The next highest share on his team is DJ Chark with a 12.3% share. So basically, this is a spread passing offense with Thielen clearly ahead of all others. He has 11 receptions for 100-plus yards and a touchdown over his last three games. Those numbers are great.
Here’s where my concern comes in, though. Adam Thielen is 33 years old. He isn’t particularly injury-prone, but he has missed some time in two of the past four seasons. The Panthers are a winless team with a rookie QB. They have no real reason to tank because the Bears have their first-round pick, but there also comes a point where they need to ramp up their young guys and see what they can do. In my mind, this means guys like Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall, and maybe even Laviska Shenault need to get more targets at Thielen’s expense.
Additionally, Thielen is currently on pace for over 1,400 yards and double-digit TDs. These marks would match or exceed his career highs in both categories. At this point in his career, it’s hard to support career highs with Bryce Young, when he’s had better QB play from Kirk Cousins before and not reached those numbers.
Basically, I’m betting on the fact that between his age, bad team, younger WRs who need an opportunity, and just classic regression this pace is unsustainable for Thielen. Now, again, that does not mean he’s going to entirely fall off a cliff. So, fantasy owners should not move him unless WR1ish value is returning.
ALVIN KAMARA, RB, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
| PLAYER | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 3 | 19.2 | 25.3 | -6.1 | 17.3 | 8.3 | -3 |
Alvin Kamara is a situational sell for me. If you need a RB who is likely to put up top 15-20 RB numbers the rest of the way (probably five spots higher in PPR leagues), then hang on to Kamara for sure.
However, this is a player who is not as good as his name implies.
People are still holding on to first-round Kamara from years ago, and this year’s version is not that guy. I’ve seen others saying to buy Kamara, which is great, because it means your league mates may be actively wanting to go after him giving you an opening to gain value.
The first thing of note, is that his efficiency numbers aren’t great for the workload he’s receiving. One was against New England, so a big game on the ground isn’t necessarily expected, but against Houston, I wanted to see more than 3.6 YPC from a supposed “elite” player. The pass-catching will be there. It’s always there for Kamara. However, 23 catches in three games (highlighted by a 13-catch game) is probably too good to be true.
My biggest concern is with competition. The Saints RB situation has always been a committee. This is not the old days, however, when multiple top backs could be supported. This offense is different. Derek Carr is, well, Derek Carr. Pretty much the definition of mediocre. Jamaal Williams is expected to return tonight from IR and should handle goal-line work. Rookie Kendre Miller also flashed last week and has a similar skill set to Kamara.
Again, there’s still a good fantasy player here and the catches will guarantee that. However, if the volume slips, then the touchdown potential slips, and he’s then good, but not great. A more consistent option as seen on our xPF chart or Workload Report could be beneficial.
