Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy-Low, Sell-High via Expected Fantasy Points (2023): Buy Diontae Johnson, Sell Derrick Henry

The same old mantra is always “Buy-Low, Sell-High.” You see it in every ‘Trade 101’ article. It can be seen on just about every fantasy site. In fact, you see it in the title of this very article you are reading now.

Here’s the thing, though: everyone else sees this same thing, too. Your league-mates are all trying to buy low and sell high, too. So occasionally, when circumstances are right, I advocate doing the opposite.

Today, I will highlight two players I want to trade for despite their recent uptick in value. I will also highlight two players I want to move despite not being at peak value. We’re doing this because I believe the upside for the two buy players is higher than they’re getting credit for, and the two sell players still have name value above their real value.

WEEK 5 EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS

Expected fantasy points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of xFP, click here.

The main purpose of using the xFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers and buy players who see plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a general overview of RSJ Jackson Barrett’s trading strategy, click here. In addition, we publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find xFP data for each player, including average carries, targets, and air yards. Below the chart are our Week 6 players to buy-low and sell-high.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players we want to buy low and sell high in Week 6.

WEEK 6 BUY-NOT-SO-LOW

ROSCHON JOHNSON, RB CHICAGO BEARS

For this exercise, I’m assuming you are in a league where Roschon Johnson is rostered. Obviously, you should add him from waivers if he’s available. Again, assuming somebody already has him, we’re taking a swing here on an upside play going forward.

We’re trying to take advantage of good and bad news here in acquiring Roschon. The good news (for our purposes) is that Khalil Herbert appears to have a multi-week ankle injury, opening up opportunities for another back in his absence. The bad news is that Johnson is returning from a concussion and is still in protocol.

However, we can hopefully leverage the “bad news” into acquiring Roschon for cheap. Maybe as a “throw-in” player in a bigger trade. The goal here is to roster Roschon for a bench player and hope he develops into an RB2 for us down the stretch.

During the offseason and the first three weeks of the season, the drumbeat was that Roschon would eventually take over the starting RB job. To his credit, he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry, has 11 receptions, and he’s been the sole backup for Herbert with D’Onta Foreman a healthy scratch. It’s clear that Roschon has the best three-down skill set on the Bears.

In the past, Herbert has been more of a change-of-pace guy, and all it should take is a couple of big games from Roschon in Herbert’s absence to flip roles. This is not a guarantee, but the juice is worth the squeeze if you can get him from an owner who doesn’t see the full potential.

DIONTAE JOHNSON, WR PITTSBURGH STEELERS

We probably should have gone after Diontae Johnson a week or two ago, but I still think there’s enough “bad news” similar to Roschon that we can get him for under-value.

Johnson said he’s ready to go after the team finishes its bye week. Much like in the case above, we’re trying to leverage any bad news to try to overshadow good news. The bad news is the aforementioned bye week, Kenny Pickett being mediocre, and Johnson’s zero touchdowns last year. The good news is that he feels healthy, and those TDs were due for a positive regression anyway.

This player has had 86, 107, and 88 catches over the past three years. Despite subpar QB play, Diontae is a lock for high volume in the passing game. Johnson has the very real potential (and track record) to step in as an immediate WR2 in PPR leagues. However, he may be rostered by somebody who’s sick of waiting for him and willing to throw him in an undervalued deal. I don’t think there’s much risk in getting him, especially if you can give up a lower-volume WR for him.

WEEK 6 SELL-HIGH’ISH

DERRICK HENRY, RB TENNESSEE TITANS

This makes me cry inside. I love Derrick Henry, and he gets Houston twice in the playoffs. I am not suggesting you give him away for nothing because I think he’ll still be a solid player this season. However, we have to look at the warning signs here.

First, the Titans have a very mid offense. It’s just not very good. Second, Henry is on pace for roughly 50 fewer carries than last year. Third, related to the second point, Tyjae Spears looks really good. This is the first time there has been a second RB in the backfield with any upside, and it shows in Henry’s loss of volume. Make no mistake about it. Henry is still the early-down and goal-line guy, but we must accept that he won’t have the volume he once had.

Just looking at the Spears thing for a moment. He has been consistent in the passing game with 4-plus targets in four of the five weeks. That part makes sense, as Henry has never been much of a receiving back. However, we can’t ignore it because the Titans have always milked leads with Henry, and now they’re behind more than before. That lends itself to Spears’ skillset.

Bottom line, I still like Henry. I still don’t mind rostering Henry. The existence of Spears caps Henry’s ceiling more than before, and if you can move him for a rock-solid RB1, you have to do it. He’s likelier to be a top 10 type of guy than a top 5. Use the name value to fill your roster with more upside players instead.

SAQUON BARKLEY, RB, NEW YORK GIANTS

Much like Derrick Henry, this is a “stud” RB that you’ll be selling low, but I think may still be worth it. I have real concerns about Saquon Barkley this year. His “day-to-day” injury has now cost him four weeks (and maybe longer).

I remember the last time Barkley had a similar injury. In 2021, he wasn’t terrible, but wasn’t good either. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry that year with only four total TDs in 13 games. Those numbers aren’t great and certainly not borderline first-round numbers.

The secondary concern is the offensive line in New York. If you haven’t seen it, Daniel Jones has spent more time on his back this season than Jenna Jameson (I know, I’m getting old). Seriously though, that O line! They can’t block for Jones. They probably won’t block for Barkley, either. I don’t want any part of this offense, between Barkley’s past struggles and the team’s current struggles. It just looks bad.

I know it’s hard to move a guy you’ve been waiting all season for. Sometimes, though, you just should. Saquon still comes with first or second-round draft status, so there is somebody in your league right now who will give up equivalent talent for him. Find that guy and move him before he comes back. If Saquon returns and looks bad, you’ve lost your selling window, so don’t wait.