Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy football success. The Workload Report was created to help visualize the crucial snaps, targets, touches, air yards, and other advanced usage metrics that matter.
The Workload Report is broken into three distinct sections: opportunity, production, and results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and discover where these coveted fantasy points are coming from in Week 4 for every team. Each week, we’ll highlight several categories and dive into which players showed up and why. Then, at the bottom, I’ll give one important takeaway for all 10-12 NFL teams.
In addition to the screenshots below, check out the full version of The Workload Report to dig into all the data yourself.
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DOWNLOAD: THE WORKLOAD REPORT – WEEK 4
(Sory by Team, How to Use, Team Totals)
WEEK 4 FANTASY ALL-STARS
Dedicated to the players who break 30 PPR points each week
Here’s a pretty fun new rule for those of us who play DFS every week. When Elijah Mitchell is inactive, play Christian McCaffrey no matter what. Four touchdowns and 106 rushing yards, and he almost got the double bonus after finishing with seven catches for 71 receiving yards. It seems pretty silly not to have been drafting him 1.01 all summer.
Puka Nacua continues to just ball out every single week. He cracks the 30-point barrier with only one touchdown, which is a rather rare thing to do, and there’s no real sign of him slowing down. Cooper Kupp potentially coming back into this offense should be an interesting wrinkle, but I think Nacua will be just fine when he’s back.
SAVED BY THE ENDZONE
These players may have a high fantasy score, but most of it was due to TD “luck.”
All of the multi-TD days this week were actually pretty impressive, so there’s nobody that fits the description there. We’ve got our usual cast of random TEs who all scored on only one or two catches. That’s the life of the TE position this year. Brandon Johnson cracks this list again and is really scoring well in your “only count catches that are TDs” league.
Courtland Sutton, Drake London, and Calvin Ridley are the three interesting names at the bottom of this list. All three are off to pretty disappointing starts after a bit more hype to start the season. For Sutton and London, their overall ceiling may be capped due to their dysfunctional offenses. Ridley on the other hand, has at least shown some underlying stats that make you excited. AJ Terrell blanketed him in London, so I think some bigger weeks are ahead for him.
A TOUCHDOWN AWAY FROM BREAKING THE SLATE
Had any of these guys hit paydirt, we may have been hearing a lot more about them this week.
It was a pretty hilarious runout for Alvin Kamara in his first game back from suspension. It seems almost impossible to record only 33 receiving yards on 13 catches, but nevertheless, the check-down nature of this game has to be a good sign for Kamara. Now some of this could be due to Derek Carr’s shoulder injury. However, Kamara saw an 86% snap share to go with a 39% target share and a 61% rushing share. It’s safe to say this backfield is his.
Brandon Aiyuk is very clearly Brock Purdy’s favorite receiving option, and he seemed to be running all over the field wherever he wanted on Sunday against the Cardinals. While the 21.5 aDOT from Week 4 is not sustainable, the 0.95 WOPR is very encouraging, and the fact that he is posting a RACR right around 1.0 on the year with so many Air Yards is hugely dominant.
DOMINATING THE DOMINATOR RATING
(Rec. Yds + Rush Yds)/(Team Rec. Yds + Team Rush Yds) + TD Share + Air Yd Share (WR/TEs)
When I review this list, I like to focus on the players who made it with the least amount of touchdowns scored. Josh Jacobs is a guy who stands out to me this week. He had been seeing only 58% of the rushing share and 13% of the receiving share through Week 3, but against the Chargers last week, he commanded a 76% rushing share while tacking on 8 catches for 81 yards and a TD. If these targets can be sustained once Jimmy Garoppolo is back, things will look really nice for Jacobs.
We’ve got to talk about AJ Brown at some point. The dude is absolutely balling and is clearly Jalen Hurts favorite target to start the year. Brown’s WOPR went up from 0.78 to 0.95 in Week 4, but his RACR also crept up with it. He saw 212 Air Yards and turned that into 9-175-2 day. Everything about his play from Weeks 1 through 4 signals an elite WR season is underway.
AIR YARDS= FUTURE PRODUCTION
Who saw Air Yards > 35%, but fantasy share < 20% this week?
This is arguably the most impactful section each week, and I try to spend the most time parsing through the numbers. There are three different buckets that we can separate these players into:
Ready to Explode: In this bucket, I want to look for players who have seen a solid WOPR to start the year, but whose RACR has not been efficient, if the opportunity share holds, the efficiency should bubble up and create a big week. DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, and Amari Cooper fit into this category.
Need More Volume: These guys are seeing a big Air Yard Share, and their RACR is also relatively high. However, their number of Air Yards is actually low relative to other players. In other words, if more volume comes, then more big games should be in store for Zay Flowers and George Pickens.
Potentially Smoke & Mirrors: All of these guys have some sort of red flag. Either their WOPR isn’t very high, meaning they have just seen a couple of long bombs (“Prayer Yards), or they’ve never really consistently shown signs of an efficient RACR in the past, so there’s no sense trying to hold out hope this year. DJ Chark, Calvin Austin, and Tyler Boyd headline the more cautious part of this list.
RECEIVING ALPHA DOGS
Anything above a 0.8 WOPR is considered ‘ELITE‘
With 4 weeks of data under our belt, we can really start to make some headway with this data as well. For Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) we want to compare this Receiving Air Conversion Rate (RACR) to parse through how well players are performing from an efficiency standpoint.
One-Week Wonders: These players posted an above-normal WOPR this week and have some underlying stats that could give us pause when assuming they will continue with this role for the rest of the season. Romeo Doubs (Christian Watson’s return) and Chris Godwin (high one-week WOPR + RACR), fit the mold in this category.
On the Rise: These players have all seen an increase in WOPR, and their RACR also tracked up as similar or better efficiency with the added volume. If this continues, this is the exact cohort of players we want to try and pounce on early. Josh Palmer and Christian Kirk are both worth monitoring very closely for the next few weeks.
Elite, Elite, Elite: These players all have a history of posting WOPR above 0.8, so they are no stranger to this list. Along with big opportunity weeks, these guys all have underlying stats that skew very positive, so it’s an extra vote of confidence to see them show up in this category. Justin Jefferson (30%+ Target Share), Davante Adams (50%+ Air Yard Share), and AJ Brown (RACR on the rise) fit the bill from Week 4.
RUSHING WORKHORSES
Which players commanded more than 75% of their team’s rushing yards?
It’s definitely encouraging to see Joe Mixon absolutely controlling the Bengals backfield. He has been up near 90% in every week this season. The part that isn’t so encouraging is that the Bengals look like a bit of a dumpster fire offense so far. Mixon also only has nine catches on the year, which is definitely a bit low for him. If the Bengals regress back to a more competent offense, Mixon should trend with them.
Jaleel McLaughlin is a name to remember on waivers this week. With Javonte Williams being potentially injured, it is McLaughlin whom the Broncos coaching staff seems to admire more compared to Samaje Perine. His 33% snap share is a bit of caution, but we’ll see how that plays out in a full game without Williams.
SNEAKY PASS-CATCHERS
Non-WRs who saw a hefty receiving share this week
With a majority of the Ravens pass catchers on the injured list this week, Mark Andrews really shined against the Browns. It was good to see him put up an elite fantasy outcome against this tough Cleveland defense. Everything is trending how we want to see it for Andrews.
Sam LaPorta has been the late-round rookie tight end that dreams are made of so far this year. He’s got a healthy aDOT for a TE and is seeing nearly 20% of the Air Yards for the Lions. His receiving share numbers really jump off the page here, especially when compared to the other tight ends. Jake Ferguson also somewhat falls into this category as well. I love both of these guys moving forward.
LOSING GRIP ON RB1 STATUS
These RBs are all seeing decreases in their USG rating
Apologies that my snap count data is still a little bit behind this week at the time of writing, but Tony Jones Jr. and AJ Dillon both saw their usage rates plummet with the inclusion of their respective lead-backs onto the football field. This was to be expected.
In the category of maybe not to be expected, Dalvin Cook and Brian Robinson both saw a rather large decrease in usage with little change in the starting backfield. You can likely contribute this to both players’ competitive game environments this week. I’m still pretty convinced the Cook is cooked and just not a good football player anymore, but definitely something to keep an eye on for Robinson.
ONE THING FOR EACH TEAM
A quick takeaway for 10-12 teams. Rotated in alphabetical order, each team will show up every three weeks.
ARI – Nice to see the two TD day from Michael Wilson. Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz lead the team in WOPR, but their low RACR are par for the course based on career averages.
ATL – Bijan Robinson is taking all they can give him and is producing well. A multi-TD day is coming. The underlying metrics are not really supporting a big Drake London breakout year; he seems to be very TD dependent.
BAL – It’s the Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers show in Baltimore. Flowers saw his biggest aDOT output in Week 4, coinciding with a 46% Air Yard share. At this point we just want to keep seeing that opportunity for the rookie. Good things will follow.
BUF – Dalton Kincaid saw more usage than Dawson Knox pretty much across the board in Week 4, however, we have yet to really see a ceiling game from either of these players. Meanwhile Stefon Diggs is off to an Alpha Play start here in 2023.
CAR – It’s hard to tell if it is due to injury or not, but Miles Sanders conceded a lot of work to Chuba Hubbard in Week 4—something to keep an eye on moving forward.
CHI – Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert took a big step towards grabbing this Bears backfield all for himself with a 58% rushing attempt share and a 24% dominator rating.
CIN – Tyler Boyd saw an increased workload with an injured Tee Higgins, it is definitely something to keep an eye on if Higgins misses time. Boyd could be worthy of a waiver wire pickup.
CLE – Jerome Ford maintained a 63% snap share and 18% target share even in the come-from-behind effort on Sunday against the Ravens. This is encouraging to see, and he should see more than nine carries next week.
DAL – Weird game script for Dallas this week with two defensive TDs. It always skews the fantasy outcomes. Jake Ferguson really coming into his own at tight end. I would prioritize him if you are streaming TE.
DEN – Marvin Mims needs to see the field more—end of story.
DET – David Montgomery showing really effective fantasy production is hampering Jahmyr Gibbs’ upside. With an otherwise healthy pass-catching corps, I think Gibbs needs to stay on your bench for a few weeks here.
