It may be a little too early to toot my own horn, but this draft season I called for ya’ll to fade Alvin Kamara at his ADP. I predicted that the change at QB from Drew Brees to Jameis Winston would be problematic primarily because of the lack of targets that I projected him to see. And for the first time in Kamara’s career on Sunday, he failed to receive at least one target in a game!
So, we ask: what the hell is going on with Alvin Kamara?
For starters, the Saints have played the third-most difficult strength of schedule (SoS) for running backs from Weeks 1 through 5. The Saints schedule gets easier for RBs with the 14th easiest SoS for Weeks 6 through 10. It doesn’t rank among the easier schedules, but the jump from 30 to 14 is pretty significant.
Next, he’s not as efficient as he’s been in years past. This season Kamara has averaged five targets per game, which is two fewer targets than he saw between 2018 to 2020 with Brees as his primary QB. His yards per target is also down 2.5 yards from last season and he’s still yet to score a rushing touchdown on 78 carries. Last season he scored a rushing TD once every 11.7 carries and scored a touchdown every 14 touches.
To add to this craziness, Kamara is on the field more than ever before and he still has elite-level usage. He played 87 percent of snaps, had 82 percent of RB touches, and set a career-high in rushing attempts (26) against the Giants in Week 4. In 2020, Kamara didn’t play over 80 percent of snaps one time, but he’s already done that 3 times in 2021.
SHOULD YOU BUY OR SELL KAMARA?
Kamara’s situation is weird. If you drafted him with the third or fourth pick in your fantasy draft, you’ve probably been a little disappointed so far. Regardless of whether I had Kamara on my team or not, I’d send out some feelers. He’s still a rest of season RB1 (No. 7 overall on our ROS Big Board), but it’s about time we adjust our expectations. I don’t view Kamara in the upper echelon of workhorse running backs where we are used to seeing him
Would I trade him? Yes, depending on the roster construction of my team. If I could get two high-level starters for him then I absolutely would. Check out Jackson’s trade value chart for some help putting together some packages.
