The NFL once again proved it’s the definition of cinema after Isaiah Likely’s big toe landed on the chalk in the back of the end zone as time expired in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens failed to send the game into overtime, and the Chiefs prevailed, kicking off the 2024 NFL season in dramatic fashion.
Although we aren’t here to recap an entire game we all watched, there were a few significant 2024 fantasy football takeaways, highlighted by us telling you to start the electric Xavier Worthy in his NFL debut and the emergence of third-year tight end Isaiah Likely, who led the team (and all players) with nine receptions for 111 yards (12.3 YPC) and a 49-yard score on 12 targets with a 3.17 yards per route run.
WAS THE ISAIAH LIKELY BREAKOUT PREDICTABLE?
Although I’m not going to pretend I called my shot with Likely, because I drafted him in zero redraft leagues or best ball drafts. A few notable breadcrumbs tipped off his expanded role, allowing me to sprinkle his +500 Anytime Touchdown (a number we won’t see again this season):
First, Likely did not see any action in the preseason. Nope, not one second.
“Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh does not play his starters in preseason games, and he often doesn’t play the second-stringers either,” wrote USA Today’s Paul Banks. “While Mark Andrews is the starting tight end, backup man Isaiah Likely also sees a lot of regular playing time. But that is not the case in the preseason, as Likely did not feature in the first two exhibition games, and he’ll be on the sidelines again come Saturday when the Ravens face the Green Bay Packers.”
Next, the Ravens social media team featured him on their initial Gameday poster alongside Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Roquan Smith. It sounds silly, but it was clear he would play a significant role in the offense. Let’s be honest: the official social media squad isn’t featuring a second-string, situational tight end in their first media package for the regular season.
Everything pointed to Likely being a fantasy football target in the Ravens’ offense.
ISAIAH LIKELY FANTASY PRODUCTION
Before this game, Likely was viewed as a “handcuff” tight end to Mark Andrews in fantasy, who had value when the veteran was out but did not consistently do enough to be fantasy-relevant.
According to the great Nathan Janke of PFF, when Andrews played 75% of snaps last season, Likely only saw 7-35%. Then, Likely would take over the TE1 role in games where Andrews was out of the lineup.
In Week 1, the Ravens made 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE) their base offense. Out of 80 snaps, Andrews was on the field for 59 snaps, while Likely was on the field for 53. Likely almost mirrored the number of routes run with 35 to Andrews’ 38.
What’s even more alarming for Andrews’ fantasy owners is that in 11 personnel (1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE), Likely played only two fewer snaps than the veteran (11 to nine). This was not normal last season when the two were healthy, and it should only prove that Likely is set for a much more significant role in the offense this season.
Not only did Likely lead the team and tight ends (12 to two) in targets, but Jackson looked for him when he needed to move the chains or make a big play through the air. And in all honesty, Andrews looked like dust at times.
Now, this is not to say that the Ravens’ passing offense will run through Likely. But, it’s a sign that a promising fantasy season could be brewing due to the high success rate in 12 personnel, his emergence in 11 personnel, and the 12 targets. The upside is real and it should be concerning for Andrews’ managers.
SUMMARY: ISAIAH LIKELY 2024 FANTASY OUTLOOK
All signs pointed toward a breakout year for Isaiah Likely, and we all chose not to listen. But the great thing about fantasy football is that we can learn from our mistakes and dump our FAAB or be lucky enough to be next in line to grab the athletic tight end off waivers.
Am I as eager as The Wolf is to move Likely ahead of Andrews after Week 1? Probably not; I’m hesitant.
But, he’s well worth the Week 2 Waiver Wire add and could easily hop over Andrews on Lamar Jackson’s target totem pole. In an offense that features a nice piece in Zay Flowers (nine targets) and not much else on the perimeter, Likely would be their second-most dangerous pass-catcher.
Keep it locked and loaded on The Wolf’s Rest of Season Rankings and our upcoming Week 2 Waiver Wire article on Sunday night to see where things shake out on Sunday. He very well likely could be this season’s Trey McBride off the waiver wire.
