Knowing which players to avoid in the early rounds of a 2024 Dynasty fantasy football draft is just as crucial as identifying those you want to draft. Every year, new dynasty players make the mistake of selecting multiple early-round running backs and end up regretting it for seasons to come.
I was once that novice, thinking my 1.08 Dalvin Cook pick in the summer of 2021 was a brilliant move. Avoid making the same mistake. Here are the early-round running backs you should fade in 2024 Dynasty fantasy football drafts.
Learning From History
If you completed a startup in 2020-2022, I challenge you to go back and look at your Draft Board. What stands out in the first few rounds? To me, it’s clearly the absolutely woeful RB picks.
From my 2021 Startup Dynasty Draft (SuperFlex, Half PPR, 12 teams):
- Pick 2.6: Cam Akers
- Pick 2.11: Antonio Gibson
- Pick 3.2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Pick 5.7: Miles Sanders
- Pick 6.9: Chris Carson
- Pick 7.2 Myles Gaskin
From my 2022 Startup Dynasty Draft (SuperFlex, Half PPR, 12 teams):
- Pick 1.12: Najee Harris
- Pick 2.5: Javonte Williams
- Pick 4.4 Cam Akers
- Pick 5.3: Antonio Gibson
- Pick 6.1: Elijah Mitchell
- Pick 6.9: AJ Dillon
Mostly, this list does not even include the RBs taken with high startup picks who were elite for maybe 1-2 years after and then fell off a cliff, such as Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, and, of course, Dalvin Cook. Depending on how your team performed, you could argue whether or not this short-term production was worth the pick. I would argue that these picks did not help you build a dynasty.
You have to be really careful which RBs you choose to invest high draft capital in for Dynasty Fantasy Football. The wrong picks can legitimately set your team back years.
ADPs referenced are from Dynasty Data Lab’s Startup ADP.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (RB2, ADP 16)
I won’t sit here and tell you it’s not scary to fade a literal god. The undisputed goat of fantasy football has an ADP of 1.2 in Underdog’s Best Ball drafts for a very good reason. He has been and still is an elite RB and fantasy asset.
Will he be the RB1 this year? Most likely. I’d bet on him over anyone else. But in this case, we aren’t playing Underdog Best Ball or 2024 redraft fantasy football. Dynasty is a game of managing risks and rewards. In Dynasty, it is optimal to view player values in a time frame of roughly three years.
What can CMC do this year, as a 28-year-old RB, to improve his value as the 17th overall player? I truly don’t see a path to him raising this value any higher.
If you are in a startup draft and paying the overall 16th-ranked player price for Christian McCaffrey, you are planning on contending this year. The best case scenario is winning in year 1 with CMC crushing it and willing your team to a championship. That’s really your only option to come close to making this a worthwhile pick.
What’s the worst-case scenario? As an older running back, the possibility of him falling off a cliff is ever-present. But, more likely, it would be another injury. I’m not big into “injury-prone” speak, but if he suffers any kind of significant injury this year, his value will nosedive. For multiple years in a row, people were (wrongfully) fading CMC because they thought he was injury-prone. If there is any significant injury this year, the masses will be screaming that he is a 28-year-old RB made of glass.
I’d prefer to mitigate this risk by buying into the assets around him that have a greater store of value. Some examples that are similarly priced:
If you are hellbent on staying put in your draft and taking an RB, then just take Breece Hall instead. He is 23, the RB3, and has an ADP of 17. He was electric last year and has a legitimate chance to usurp CMC as the overall RB1 with a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers.
The question of CMC’s eventual decline is not “if” but “when.” Father time eventually comes for all running backs. CMC is currently entering year 8, which puts him in rough territory for a RB:
SAQUON BARKLEY, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (RB7, ADP 40)
Typically, I like to bet on talented players in Dynasty. And to me, there is no doubt that Saquon is a talented running back. However, he is 27 years old. Last year, a (equally talented) 27-year-old Nick Chubb was the RB7 in Dynasty. Today? He is the RB34.
Saquon and Chubb have both suffered ACL injuries. I’m not saying it is likely that Saquon will suffer a similarly horrific injury this year, but this is an entirely possible outcome that would absolutely nuke his value.
Saquon finds himself on a far superior offense this year. But is the situation going to be that much more beneficial than the Giants? The most successful play in the NFL last year was the Tush Push. Rushing QBs like Jalen Hurts have a history of cannibalizing their RBs’ value by not checking down in the passing game and vulturing TDs on the ground.
Last year, Saquon received 75% of his team’s carries inside the 10-yard line. For D’Andre Swift, that number was only 40%. While Saquon will surely find his team inside the 10 more often than he did last year, I don’t anticipate a significant increase in TD opportunity because of Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push.
Saquon finished as the RB12 last year, despite missing a few games. Will he be able to finish around his current cost? Even if he does finish as the RB7 exactly, would that be considered a win, given what that would likely mean for his value going forward as a 28-year-old running back? Win-now teams can make a decent argument in Saquon’s favor, but will he really help you build a dynasty?
Assets priced around Barkley (who I think are much better bets) include Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Rome Odunze, Nico Collins, Dalton Kincaid, Brock Bowers, Jared Goff, and Tua Tagovailoa. If you want to make a high-upside pick at RB, I would much prefer taking a 22-year-old De’Von Achane (RB8, ADP 44).
KYREN WILLIAMS, LOS ANGELES RAMS (RB9, ADP 46)
See, I’m not just a hater of older RBs. If you managed to have Kyren on your Dynasty roster prior to the beginning of last season, congratulations! Now is the time to sell high. The 2022 5th-round pick was the RB6 in 2023. He did this despite being placed on IR midseason.
Remember when Cam Akers was supposed to be Todd Gurley 2.0? Refer to my startup drafts from 2021 and 2022 to see where Akers was being drafted. Yes, Akers never had quite the season that Kyren had last year. However, Akers was a 2nd-round draft pick with a pretty decent analytical profile.
Unlike Barkley, I am unconvinced that Kyren is an uber-talented RB. Kyren, a fifth-round pick, is not particularly athletic or efficient, either in college or in his stellar 2023 season. What is so appealing about Kyren? Sean McVay trusts him. That is the bull case for him. One of the best minds in the NFL trusts his RB to carry a significant workload in an exciting offense.
Williams would likely be half a round or so higher in startup ADP if not for the Rams drafting Blake Corum.
Corum is pretty clearly the better prospect. Realistically, can we expect that Kyren will remain a bell cow for years to come? Given his profile, McVay’s history, and the Rams drafting Corum, I do not think it is very likely. McVay acknowledged Corum’s similarities with Kyren and simply said that to get and stay on the field, he needs Blake to show consistency and trust. Bell cow backs are rare, and it makes sense that the Rams would want a guy like Corum to take the load off of Kyren, who sustained an injury last year, for these long 17 (and potentially 18-game) seasons.
If I am drafting an RB at an ADP of 46, I want a superstar and clear job security for years to come. Kyren does not satisfy either of those conditions. If I’m simply looking for an RB who projects for a significant number of touches, I’d rather take guys 4-7 rounds later, like Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams, or Brian Robinson.
JOSH JACOBS, GREEN BAY PACKERS, (RB12, ADP 59)
Jacobs is the easiest fade on the board for me in both Dynasty and Underdog’s Best Ball (RB12, ADP 52.8). A 26-year-old RB coming off one of the most woefully inefficient seasons whose team moved on from him is going at the end of Round 5 in dynasty startup drafts? Make it make sense.
To make matters worse, the Green Bay Packers drafted Marshawn Lloyd in the 3rd round of this year’s NFL Draft. And yes, AJ Dillon still remains on the Packers. Still think Jacobs is going to be the bell cow? After acquiring Jacobs, Head Coach Matt LaFleur had this to say:
“You guys know how I feel philosophically — I think you have to have multiple backs in this league… I don’t see it really changing much in terms of how we want to use our backs.”
As we all pleaded for years for Matt Lafleur to #FreeAaronJones, it never happened. LaFleur stuck to his philosophy. Is Jacobs significantly more talented than Aaron Jones? Their production in 2023 suggests the opposite.
Jacobs saw career lows in Yards Per Attempt, Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt, and Yards After Contact Per Attempt. One may argue that Jacobs was set up to fail and that the offensive environment of the Raiders was impossible to succeed in. Zamir White didn’t seem to have many issues (granted, a small sample):
I think it’s important to remember that the Raiders moved on from Jacobs, and the track record of seasoned RBs switching teams via Free Agency isn’t very appealing:
Keep in mind that Jacobs is entering year-six.
On average, Jacobs is being drafted ahead of Tank Dell, Tee Higgins, George Pickens, and Jonathan Brooks. Unlike Jacobs, each of those players has a decent chance to increase their startup value by multiple rounds and be an actual difference-maker on your roster for years to come.
Conclusion
I could continue on and dunk on Rachaad White for losing Dave Canales to the Carolina Panthers, his team drafting Bucky Irving, him simply not being a very good runner of the football, etc., but I think you get the gist. In general, it serves you well to avoid RBs in the first 5-6 rounds of startup drafts. Unless they are a unicorn in terms of talent and young enough to provide you with 3+ productive seasons, just click on QB, WR, or TE. You’ll thank me later.
Oh, and don’t worry. In December of 2022, I flipped my 1.08 Dalvin Cook and a 2023 3rd-round pick for Garrett Wilson 😎
Don’t forget to check out our 2024 Dynasty Rankings to help you dominate drafts and build a dynasty!
