Week 9 Fantasy Football Buy-Low, Sell-High: Go Get Chris Olave, Dangle Jahmyr Gibbs After His Big Game

Last week‘s Buy Low, Sell High contained a couple of immediate hits with Joe Mixon and DeAndre Hopkins, who both put up season-high performances.

While I’m encouraged and excited with the immediate returns from both players, keep in mind that the goal is identifying who should be better over the long-term. The results may take more than one week!

This mindset will change in a few weeks when we get closer to playoffs, at which point all of our goals will be specific to winning weeks 15-17.

For now, there’s still enough regular season left that we have some room for patience. Just a reminder to make sure you’re aware of the trade deadline in the leagues you are in. Some of the deadlines can be random or arbitrary and vary from site to site and league to league.

Just as an example, in three leagues I’m in on Yahoo, I have deadlines of 11/18, 12/2 and no deadline at all. Make sure you know this information!

Let’s dive into our xFP chart for Week 8 and then our Week 9 players to buy-low and sell-high.

WEEK 8 EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS

Expected fantasy points essentially show what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of xFP, click here.

The main purpose of using the xFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers and buy players who see plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a general overview of RSJ Jackson Barrett’s trading strategy, click here. In addition, we publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find xFP data for each player, including average carries, targets, and air yards. Below the chart are our Week 9 players to buy-low and sell-high.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players we want to buy low and sell high in Week 9

WEEK 9 BUY-LOW

COOPER KUPP, WR LOS ANGELES RAMS

Well, Cooper Kupp will likely never be cheaper than he should be this week. Kupp is coming off of two games in a row with less than 30 yards and Matt Stafford is dealing with an injured thumb. There’s a very realistic chance that Kupp will have Brett Rypien throwing him the ball this week then he has a bye in week 10.

Much like some previous buy lows, we’re looking to the future with this move. The first question is, what are we getting with Kupp?

Cooper has had 38 targets since returning from his stint on the IR. In that same time frame, Puka Nacua has had 37 targets. While I have always maintained that Kupp and Stafford sing “We Belong Together” to each other in the Rams shower facilities, even I have to admit that Puka’s presence lowers Kupp’s ceiling.

However, even with Puka, Cooper Kupp still commands plenty of attention. He also still averages 15 yards per catch. He may not ever come close to the kind of video game numbers he’s put up in the past few years, but he won’t be getting 30 yards a game either.

We just have to be realistic that with a healthy Stafford, Kupp is probably a low end WR1 instead of the #1 overall WR he’s been in the past. There’s also likely more volatility here than before. Some games will be Kupp games, some will be Puka games.

I would still rather have Kupp than Puka rest of season, but just realize that things have changed to some degree.

Many fantasy owners have very short-term memory. It’s easy to remember that Kupp has 50 yards on 6 catches over the past two weeks, especially if that performance caused a loss for the week.

However, it was only a few weeks ago that Kupp had put up over 100 yards in two straight games. I have no reservations in going after him and you can use the bad weeks, and Puka, and Stafford’s thumb to soften the price.

CHRIS OLAVE, WR NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I am far from a Chris Olave truther. In fact, he was a guy I actively avoided in all drafts this summer. I thought his price did not match the production I was expecting from him.

However, this is still a super talented young player. Fantasy owners tend to overreact. We see a young player with talent like Olave or Garrett Wilson and tend to look only at the upside which results in drafting them too high. That happened with Olave.

Now, however, Chris Olave is coming off of a stretch of severe mediocrity. While I don’t think Olave was worth the late 2nd/early 3rd rounder many invested, I do think he is a quality WR2. He has a great get-right spot this week at the Bears followed by the Vikings the week after.

In fact, there really aren’t any games remaining for the Saints this year that would greatly scare me from a defensive standpoint (thank you, NFC South).

There is also a good chance that whoever has Olave in your league is getting tired of him. He only has one TD on the season (betting on TD regression worked last week with Mixon and Hopkins) and that will change.

He also has a high mark of 96 yards in the past 5 weeks. That includes weeks of 46, 57, 12, and 4 (ouch). Those numbers are not great.

However, he has had 34 targets in the past three weeks, despite the low production. This is a case of good talent having good opportunity and eventually those will combine for good production.

Olave is absolutely the type of player you should gamble on to turn it around. You should be able to snag him for a reasonable trade price.

WEEK 9 SELL-HIGH

JAHMYR GIBBS, RB DETROIT LIONS

I love Jahmyr Gibbs. This kid looks very strong as a runner around the edge, and as a pass catcher. I drafted Gibbs in a majority of my leagues, investing 3rd and 4th round picks for him (differing by league).

I suffered through the first month of the season when he put up middling numbers to David Montgomery‘s benefit. I sat through the handful of weeks when Gibbs was inactive with injury.

Of course, I greatly enjoyed the past two weeks with Gibbs popping off and showing what he can do.

Despite my affinity for the player, I am advocating a trade here because we’ve hit a crossroads where hype outmatches production.

Gibbs played Monday night, a prime time game. Gibbs looked like the best player on the field by far in that game. Here’s the issue: David Montgomery.

With Montgomery sidelined, Gibbs had his two best games of the season by far. That was expected.

Yet somehow people seem to all be forgetting that Montgomery is coming back. In fact, he’s probably back in week 10 (the Lions next game).

When Montgomery was on the field, Gibbs was routinely getting under 10 carries per game. This past week? Gibbs got 27 carries.

While I think his performance has been good enough to earn more carries, he’s not sniffing 20+ carries when Montgomery is healthy. He’s also not getting goal line work with Montgomery available.

There’s nothing wrong with Gibbs. I love the player. I just expect him to slide back into a timeshare where the other guy is getting the best carries (i.e. goal line carries).

People who haven’t rostered Gibbs all year have some level of immunity where they may not realize how much it sucked being a Gibbs owner when Montgomery was healthy. Take advantage of that and sell him for top dollar after his prime time bonanza.

BRIAN ROBINSON, RB WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

This one hurts me a bit. Brian Robinson was a guy I was all about trying to acquire whenever and wherever I could earlier in the year. Through the first month he had 61 carries and was looking like the rare workhorse back that we are all chasing.

The last month has told a different tale, however.

He has had only 34 carries in the past four games. The three losses for the Commanders during that time span have probably played a factor in that but the team just traded away two big defensive assets so I don’t see a huge win streak in their future.

My biggest concern is not that Robinson will lose a ton of carries to another running back. Rather, my biggest concern is that Robinson will lose carries in general as the team is fighting from behind and throwing more.

If Robinson is only getting 10 carries a week then he’s not a super investable asset for us. He doesn’t really catch passes. He only has 13 catches on the year which is about equivalent to one week for Alvin Kamara. No-catch-backs rely on heavy ground volume and when that dries up, you’re left with just a guy.

Robinson isn’t coming off of a huge day, but 79 all purpose yards against a respectable Philly D is enough to make him look like he still has some fantasy life left. I would seriously shop him around this week and see if you can get anybody to bite as they remember his earlier weeks of production.