Should You Be Worried About Antonio Gibson’s 2021 Rest of Season Fantasy Outlook?

If you’re like me and drafted Antonio Gibson EVERYWHERE, you’re probably a bit frustrated by his early-season performance.

Gibson has only mustered 19.1 PPR points in two games, which is not how his truthers envisioned the beginning of his 2021 fantasy football breakout campaign.

Through two games, Gibson’s fantasy shortcomings are due to two things; lack of touchdowns and lack of efficiency in the passing game. While the touchdowns will surely come his way, his 4.4 YPR is way down from his 6.86 YPR in 2020. 

But there’s plenty to be optimistic about for Gibson’s rest of season fantasy outlook:

1. Still Effective: He’s averaging 4.82 yards per carry, which is an improvement from the impressive 4.66 YPC he averaged in 2020.
2. Increased Snap Share: Last season Gibson only had two games with over 60% of snaps, whereas in 2021 he’s already surpassed that mark twice.
3. Increased Workload: In the 13 games last season that Gibson was a full participant, he averaged 16.5 opportunities per game (13 rushes, 3 targets). Thus far, he’s averaging 20 opportunities per game (17 carries, 3.5 targets). 

This tweet from PFF’s Nathan Jahnke summed up the Week 2 WFT backfield pretty well: 

Washington HB snap count, 1st and 2nd down, not 2 minute drill

Antonio Gibson 38
J.D. McKissic 5

Out of 41

3rd downs, not 2 minute drill

J.D. McKissic 7
Antonio Gibson 3

Out of 10

2 minute dirll

J.D. McKissic 19
Antonio Gibson 1

Out of 19

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 17, 2021

I completely understand why all you Gibson owners are concerned, but I wouldn’t panic just yet as he is the clear-cut RB1 and his role in the offense is clearly changing. 

Antonio Gibson's role is changing. Looking at snaps in games where Gibson/McKissic both played, outside of 2 minute drill

3rd and 1-6
2020: McKissic 75, Barber 20, Gibson 13
2021: Gibson 6, McKissic 5

2nd and 11+
2020: McKissic 18, Gibson 16, Barber 3
2021: Gibson 3, McKissic 1

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 17, 2021

Below is Gibson’s 17 game pace this year compared to last season:

Rushing Attempts — Yards — TDs

2020: 170 — 795 yards — 11 TDs

2021: 281 — 1,315 yards — 0 TDs 

Targets — Receptions — Yards

2020: 44 — 36 — 247 yards

2021: 60 — 43 — 187 yards

Gibson is a great buy-low trade candidate if not this week, after his week 3 matchup on the road against the Buffalo Bills. The second-year back comes in at RB8 (+3 vs ECR) on The Wolf’s Rest of Season Rankings & Big Board.