NFL Preseason Week 1: Fantasy Football Risers, Fallers, Sleepers and Takeaways

Ignore the Preseason at your own fantasy peril. Some crucial Risers, Fallers, and Sleepers emerged after a wild Week 1.

Fallers

Though Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson may have shined, Preseason Week 1 was a tough night for the rest of this Rookie RB Crop. We dive in below:

1) Rashaad Penny Sinking Deeper into Committee Hole

If you’re missing all the Rashaad Penny Alarm Signals going off right now, it’s time to wake up immediately.

Before Preseason Action even began, Chris Carson:

Though many speculated this was mere motivational coachspeak, Thursday’s contest versus Indianapolis suggested otherwise, heavily. Carson started and severely outplayed Rashaad Penny, leading the team with 26 rushing yards on just 4 carries (6.5 YPC).

Meanwhile, Penny took 8 carries for just 16 yards (2.0 YPC), all while playing deep into the 3rd Quarter (and rotating with *PUKE* Mike Davis *PUKE AGAIN*)

Moreover, when the pressure was highest on a 4th-and-1, the team went to Carson, who moved the chains. While I acknowledge the team traded up to secure Penny in Round 1, the “Draft Capital” argument is growing weaker by the day. He was labeled one of my Most Overpriced Players in our Preseason Kickoff Guide, and his value only seems to be declining.

Even worse, though he didn’t play Thursday, CJ Prosise has been operating as the 3rd-down back in camp, and OC Brian Schottenheimer has already announced his committee-preference, noting it takes “more than one [running back], for sure” to run effectively.

Thus, Penny’s Usage waters appear very murky. This is doubly concerning considering the line is horrendous here — rankings 30th in PFF’s most recent Line Grades update.  Plus, the Seahawks’ defense has been decimated, meaning the team will rarely be milking the clock and often playing from behind — not great for Penny, who’s struggled mightily in pass-protection throughout his college career.

Penny’s ADP currently hovers in the same tier as Jay Ajayi, and Alex Collins, but comes with far less “Usage” and “Surrounding Talent” clarity to justify this. I’m passing on Penny at this price. Meanwhile, backfield-mate Carson offers far more intrigue at his 117 ADP Price Point.

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2) Ronald Jones Firmly Behind Peyton Barber, Tumbles in Debut

With a dominant overall 2017 for Rookie RBs, many seem to expect a similar 2018. Yet, outside Saquon Barkley, very few come with any guaranteed usage. This was especially clear for Ronald Jones in the Bucs Preseason Opener.

Peyton Barber, not RoJo, got the start, and dominated first-team work. In fact,  Barber played 13/14 first team snaps (including the first 13 in a row). Meanwhile, the only time he was removed was on the last snap of the first-team offense… a third-and-long that resulted in Ronald Jones dropping a pass, and blowing a chance for FG position

Barber was not only the exclusive first team back here, but also easily the most impressive. On only 4 attempts, Barber managed 21 yards (5.1 YPC) and a TD, while also tying for the team target lead with 2 looks, which he ultimately turned into a sad -1 yards. Still, the role and usage highly suggest Barber is firmly entrenched atop this depth chart, and needs to start being treated as such.

Meanwhile, Ronald Jones mustered up just 9 yards on 8 carries — though he did score an impressive run at the stripe. Though coaches often make rookies earn their roles, the alarms should at least be humming here. The situation as a whole isn’t appealing behind an atrocious offensive line, making Jones even more overpriced at his 54 overall ADP with even less role clarity now.

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3) Nick Chubb Firmly Behind Carlos Hyde, Looks Sluggish in NFL Debut

Nick Chubb‘s NFL debut was one to forget, with the Georgia product netting a paltry 15 yards on his 11 carries, including a long run of only 4 yards. Contrastingly, Carlos Hyde played exclusively with the ones before getting the “starters-on-ice” treatment after just three snaps. Though only one preseason game, Chubb’s unimpressive debut could further the gap between he and Hyde for the early-down role.

Our own CJay has long maintained that Chubb is no-good, and the rookie back did nothing to disprove this on Thursday. Yes, Cleveland’s second-string line absolutely blew, with Chubb getting hit behind the LOS on 11-of-15 carries (73%). In fact, he was actually credited with 26 yards after contact by Pro Football Focus despite rushing for only 11 total yards.

Still, the firm placement behind Hyde is even more worrisome than the lack of production, particularly in a rushing attack that plans to “ride a hot hand” this year.  Unless Chubb begins flashing in camp and sees some legitimate time with the ones in coming weeks, I’m assuming he is firmly behind Hyde, and have ranked them as such. Hyde has risen 8 spots to No.83 overall, while Chubb plummets nearly 20 whole spots down the Big Board.

This situation remains fluid and could flip at any moment, thus remaining a “Must Monitor,” but tally an early W for Team Hyde.

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Emerging “Penny Stocks”

Late Round Targets who’ve flown under the radar often emerge during Preseason Action — just look at Alvin Kamara last year. Here’s some late-round or undrafted guys who have emerged as “Must Monitor” Fantasy Products:

1) David Njoku Flashes Enormous TD Upside in Preseason Debut

The freakishly athletic David Njoku flashed his enormous ceiling during the Browns Preseason Opener, terrorizing the seams for 2 catches, 46 yards, and 2 TDs.

At 6’4″ and 246 lbs with a 4.64 forty and combine-leading vertical and broad jumps, Njoku drips in raw ability. Still, questions of whether he could be refined and utilized properly have always existed… but may be put to rest soon after this performance.

In his sophomore debut, Njoku flashed it all. On his first score, Njoku blew past the linebackers in coverage, and then outran the entire defense for a 36-yard TD.

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Next, he outleaped the defenders draped over him and high pointed his second score of the night.

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Though new OC Todd Haley has never historically used TEs, he’s also never had an athlete of this caliber at the position.Clearly, Haley and the team recognize the insane athleticism at their disposal, and are thus far using it to perfection. The upgraded “Scheme” and “Usage” scores, as well as a promising overall offensive performance from the Browns, have Njoku’s stock steadily rising. He’s firmly on the TE1 radar.

Keep in mind: this was against a Giants team that has been histroically bad at defending tight ends the past two seasons. Still, it’s an impressive performance nonetheless.

Currently sporting a 132 Overall ADP, Njoku needs to skyrocket up Big Boards everywhere. He’s risen from 128 to 105 on mine, and could continue climbing further if Josh Gordon‘s holdout seems likely to linger.

2) Jeremy Hill Drips in TD Monster-Upside

Jeremy Hill was highly impressive in his Patriots debut, rumbling for 51 yards and a TD on 11 carries while looking far more slim and spry in the process. Given Sony Michel’s knee surgery may open up some highly valuable New England “Ground Pie,” Hill needs to immediately enter fantasy radars.

Yes, the Patriots have indeed earned their reputation for backfield unpredictability, one thing is certain: the team will score plenty of rushing TDs. In fact, over the past 3 seasons, the Patriots are tied atop the league with the Saints with 75 RB carries inside the 5-yard line. The sluggish LeGarrette Blount rode this volume to an absurd 18 TDs just two seasons ago, while Rex Burkhead tallied 8 TDs in only 10 games (including 7 TDs in just six weeks following the team’s Week 9 Bye).

Indeed, Burkhead remains on the team, and has been highly productive at the stripe. However, if Sony Michel‘s surgery requires a lengthy recovery and Burkhead is forced into the early-down “Dion Lewis” style role, this massive GL share may just open up. The Patriots love using backfield roles, and Hill would appear to be the early frontrunner for the No.3 job.

He apparently entered the preseason battling Mike Gillislee for a roster spot, and considering the former Bills’ sluggish 43 yards on 14 carries, Hill gained a definite leg up Thursday night.

Moreover, Hill’s always been strong at the stripe — of his 31 career rushing touchdowns (including two in the playoffs), 25 have come from 9 yards or closer, and 22 have come from 4 yards or closer. And let’s not forget, Burkhead was forced off the field for two separate stretches in 2017. Largely undrafted with a 286 ADP, Hill needs to be on your late-round fantasy radar.

Jeremy Hill Highlights | Patriots vs Redskins Preseason Week 1

3) Michael Gallup Flashes Ability to Take Over Wide Open Cowboys’ Passing Attack

In a massively vacant Dallas “aerial pie,” rookie WR Michael Gallup made the greatest Preseason Week 1 impact. The explosive wideout hauled in his lone target — a beautiful 30-yard score from Dak Prescott. Gallup also lead the Cowboys in first team time, as he was on the field for 8 of Prescott’s 10 snaps, as compared to six for Allen Hurns, five for Terrance Williams, and three for Tavon Austin — none of who received a single target from Dak.

With 272 targets (56% of 2017 total), and 2,645 air yards (68.6%) opened up in Dallas following Dez Bryant‘s release and Jason Witten‘s retirement, andno clear favorite to claim the Lion’s Share, Gallup needs to be on your Late Round Radar. Though it’s early and Cole Beasley sat out this game, Gallup took a major step in the right direction. He’s often compared to Stefon Diggs for his savvy route running and ability to go-up for the ball, and Gallup certainly snuck past the defense in this one.

In an offense that has reportedly “struggled to move the ball downfield” throughout camp, Gallup has provided the rare bright spots. The talented rookie has reportedly built “a good rapport” with Prescott while “finding ways to generate space,” and both were certainly on display Thursday night. Moreover, OC Scott Linehan red zone ability has “talked up Gallup’s ” and “catch radius” as something that can “replace some of what the team lost in the offseason.”

Bringing the most diverse pass-catching skillset, and with a clear path to the top of Dallas’ Target Totem Pole, Gallup offers excellent value at his 142 overall, WR54 ADP and 166, WR65 ECR. He’s risen above Hurns, and to 135 overall, on my latest Big Board.

4) Chris Carson and Peyton Barber Reaffirm Spots Atop Depth Charts & Insane Penny Stock Value

Playing off the “Fallers” section, both Chris Carson and Peyton Barber strengthened their grips on starting roles, yet fall wildly behind the “more exciting” rookie injections. As reminders:

  • In Seattle, Carson was the clear starter after being consistently hyped up and praised this offseason and in early camp. His play did nothing but justify the hype, as he severely outplayed Rashaad Penny by leading the team with 26 rushing yards on just 4 carries (6.5 YPC). Comparatively, Penny took 8 carries for just 16 yards (2.0 YPC), all while playing deep into the 3rd Quarter (and rotating with *PUKE* Mike Davis *PUKE AGAIN*). His 111 ADP and 122 ECR are criminal undersells for a starting back.
  • Even cheaper: in Tampa Bay, Barber carries amind-numbingly disrespectful 183 ADPYet, Barber was far-and-away the starter and best TB back, logging the first 13 snaps straight with the first team, and missing just one the entire game. In fact, the one time he was removed, the higher-drafter Ronald Jones came in… to only drop his pass and ruin a potential FG situation. Barber may not be pretty, but he’s reliable and a step above the average plodder. On 4 less carries, Barber outgained Jones 21 yards (5.1 YPC) to 9 yards (1.12 YPC). Dirk Koetter our starterlabeled Barber “” post-game, and Barber’s done nothing to relinquish this title… nor has Jones done anything to put heat on.

4) Seahawks TE Nick Vannett Drips in Late Round TD Upside

With Jimmy Graham catching passes from Aaron Rodgers and Luke Willson now in Detroit, second-year tight end Nick Vannett could begin the season as the Seahawks’ starting tight end, and thus drips in TD-upside. This was on full display, as the former Buckeye started off on the right foot when he caught a touchdown pass from Russell Wilson and added another catch for 15-yards during his preseason debut vs the Colts — all while drawing 3 of Russel Wilson’s 5 targets.

Vannett may not be as explosive or as athletic as Graham (who is?), but he has ‘Penny Stock’ potential as Russell Wilson’s TE1. Look at Graham’s 2017 red zone stats:

  • Led the NFL in both red zone targets (26), red zone touchdowns (10) and targets inside the 10-yd line (16).
  • He was also second in the NFL behind Jarvis Landry with eight touchdowns inside the 10.

After battling a back injury, the 6-foot-6, 261 lb Vannett is finally at 100 percent and as healthy as he’s been since he entered the league. “Nicky’s had a really good camp,” Pete Carroll said. “He’s a really good catcher, he knows the system the best of any of our guys, he’s real versatile, and he’s a good competitive kid for us.”

With blocking tight end Ed Dickson on the shelf, Vannett is only separating himself from the pack as the team’s every-down tight end — which should place him firmly on your ‘Penny Stock’ watch-list.

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5)… and so does HOU Rookie TE Jordan Akins

Though currently listed third on the Texans TE depth chart, third-round rookie Jordan Akins offers some very real TD upside in this juggernaut offense. The 6’4, 250-lb UCF product set a Houston Preseason Record by scoring twice in his NFL debut, first from 6-yards out and then once more from the 14 yard line.

On his first 6 yard score, Akins displayed impressive body control to drag his feet while securing the ball as he fell to the ground. On his next TD, Akins got upfield in a hurry and used his massive frame to gain separation. As a converted wideout, Akins may not be the best blocker, but he is quick and decisive in his cuts, and gets off the line fast — all on display in this Preseason Opener.

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Keep in mind: Akins is an older rookie at 26 years old, having spent time playing minor league baseball before joining Central Florida. As such, he received a mere 7th Round Grade from NFL.com, but clearly Bill O’Brien and the Texans loved him. In fact, the Houston Chronicle suggests, “Akins got Bill O’Brien’s attention at the Senior Bowl, where the Texans’ staff coached him and got to see him up close and personal… he impressed the coaches in OTAs and training camp before getting off to the fast start at Arrowhead Stadium.”

Best of all, Akins’ impressive and rapid growth has caught QB Deshaun Watson’s eye:

“It gives us an extra weapon on the field,” Watson said. “We can go into a game with two tight ends, one tight end, and we have a lot of guys that can perform and go out there and run routes and make plays. So, he did a good job the other night of doing his job right and capitalized when his opportunity was there.”

Currently Undrafted, keep Akins in the back of your mind when waiting on TEs. This offense averaged over 40 points per game when all the pieces were fully healthy, and a player with his size and athleticism in the Red Zone will drip in immense TD upside.

This wraps up our Preseason Week 1 Fantasy Football Breakdowns. To catch these updates in real-time, be sure to check and bookmark our Fantasy Football Stock Watch, and make sure to check our Fantasy Football Big Board to see all the major rankings implications. 

Author

  • Founder of Roto Street Journal. Lover of workhorse backs, target hog wideouts, and Game of Thrones. Aspiring to be the "Brady" and "Leo" of the fantasy universe.

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