Who will be your Hero RB in 2024?
You’ve wisely decided to follow the Hero-RB Strategy in 2024 Fantasy Football. Even better, you’ve been given a Top-5 Pick to help execute it!
Christian McCaffrey might be the “obvious RB1,” and he’s gone. Yet, you were more intrigued by two younger RBs anyways!
Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson.
This is a tough debate. Both RBs are supremely talented, young, and entering much better “fantasy ecosystems” than last year. Both will be phenomenal choices, capable of 20+ FPPG, no doubt.
Still, you ultimately have to pick one, and someone will be the higher scorer. I have a clear pick, but let’s dive into their respective 2024 Fantasy Football Outlooks and weigh both Breece vs. Bijan.
Other 2024 Fantasy Football First-Round Dilemmas
- Who Should Go First Overall in 2024 Fantasy?
- Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Who to Draft at the End of Round One in 2024 Fantasy Football?
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Why You Should Pick Breece Hall in 2024 Fantasy Drafts
Miraculously, Breece Hall finished 2023 as the RB2 in fantasy, despite recovering from an ACL tear and being shackled to a hellish QB Carousel of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian. This is a testament to Hall’s unique, elite talent, and also his extremely high fantasy floor.
Hall is an insane athlete. A size-speed terror we rarely see — especially one with the three-down skillset of Breece.
Per PlayerProfiler, Hall ranks in the 97th percentile for 40-yard dash (4.39), 98th percentile for weight-adjusted speed score, and 94th percentile for burst score. Unsurprisingly his Relative Athletic Score (RAS), was an absurd 9.96/10 — the 7th best of nearly 2,000 RBs of all-time!
Considering last year’s hellish set-up, it can truly only get better from here (and again, he was THE RB2!)
In 2024, it could get MUCH better. Aaron Rodgers is already a full-go and should create the best offensive environment Hall has ever played in. Rodgers routinely checks down and gets his RBs into advantageous situations, while also creating more opportunities for TDs.
The Jets ranked 29th in points per game (15.8) last year. With Rodgers, the Packers routinely ranked Top-10. Hall is an excellent bet to improve upon his nine total TDs (RB12). In the rare moments the team was leading, Hall averaged the most fantasy points in the league, and the second-most weighted opportunities as a favorite last season; the Jets are favored in 14 of 17 games entering 2024. He had exactly 1 carry from inside-the-five last year.
Hall is also fully healthy entering this season after fighting through an ACL tear that ruined an explosive start to his NFL career. Hall said he “feels like I’m back to my old self,” which is scary considering how well he played. Running backs historically show real improvement in Year 2 post-ACL surgery.
He finally seemed to find his groove by the end of 2023. Over his final three games, in which he felt fully back, Hall accrued 507 YFS, scoring 43, 27.6, and 29 FPs (33.2 PPR FPPG). If he could achieve those ungodly totals in a disastrous setting, imagine what a full year behind a better line and a more stable offense could look like. The ceiling is truly limitless
Perhaps best of all, the Jets go from 2023’s 31st-ranked offensive line to a potential top-5 unit this season (ranked 5th by PFF). In free agency, New York signed Tyron Smith from the Cowboys and the mauling Morgan Moses from the Ravens, who both ranked in the top 10 in PFF grade last year. They also spent the 11th overall pick on monstrous T Olu Fashanu.
Sure, the team drafted a bruiser in Braelon Allen. There’s a chance Allen vultures some TDs & carves out an annoying role – Nathaniel Hackett has typically preferred RBBCs. Still, all that should be offset by a return to full health & a substantially more fertile fantasy environment with Rodgers back and a vastly improved line.
Why You Should Pick Bijan Robinson in 2024 Fantasy Drafts
Despite being lauded as a “generational product,” Bijan Robinson underwhelmed in fantasy as a rookie. He finished as the PPR RB8 in total FPs, ranking as the RB16 in FPPG.
As a raw athlete, Bijan is plenty impressive: 87th percentile 40-yard dash (4.46), 90th percentile speed score 82nd percentile burst score. is 9.85 RAS ranked 28th of nearly 2000 all-time RBs:
Definitely an impressive specimen… but not quite on the level of Breece Hall. In comparing their college tape, Robinson looked like the more natural runner, and was similarly effective as a pass-catcher. Yet, at the NFL level, Breece has popped more regularly.
Yes, Arthur Smith’s frustrating rotation should shoulder some (much) of the blame. Still, Robinson did finish third in RB targets and ninth in total opportunities. He ranked first in RB routes (385). Robinson was just slightly above average in efficiency, ranking 27th in FPs per opportunity, 21st in YPRR, and 16th in YPC.
Still, Robinson’s situation will vastly improve in 2024, and I expect those efficiency numbers to spike, in addition to much steadier usage for Bijan.
Reason 1? Kirk Cousins‘ arrival should mean a far more stable overall offensive environment. Defenses will have to respect the passing game far more than Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heineke being under center. Robinson faced an average of 6.7 defenders in the box (RB36), and teams will no longer be able to stack the front. His eight TDs (RB20) could legitimately double in a more competent offense as well.
Additionally, new OC Zac Robinson hails from the Shanahan / Sean McVay tree. This scheme’s key focus is merging the run and pass games, and the right talent (CMC, Todd Gurley, Kyren Williams) often produces monstrous results.
Bijan has already been promised “usage like Christian McCaffrey.” HC Raheem Morris said his plan is “to get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations as you possibly can.”
If Zac Robinson deploys Bijan like Kyren Williams, he could see north of 340+ touches. Williams averaged 82% of the snaps, 74% of the rushes, and 65% of the routes under Robinson’s direction — massive totals that were topped only by CMC (per FantasyLife’s Utilization Hub):
Stir in a line that ranks 6th in PFF’s line grades (and top-3 in run blocking), and Robinson presents the perfect balance of talent + usage + surrounding talent — all the ingredients for a legendary RB season.
Tyler Allgeier is a strong back-up, with a rookie-year 1,000 yard season on his resume. Zac Robinson has said, “Certainly, Tyler (Allgeier) is going to have a big role, and at certain points in the season we are going to be leaning on him.” I still consider Allgeier a handcuff (perhaps the best there is), and I do not consider him any different than what Braelon Allen is for Breece.
Nonetheless, Bijan is an elite prospect in an ascending situation that should provide so much more stability. The ceiling is astronomical if Robinson’s usage mimics Kyren Williams… and as the superior player, it very likely could.
Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson: The Final Choice
Ultimately, Breece Hall is my clear winner.
While the arrows on both supremely talented RBs are pointing straight up, we’ve already seen Breece overcome his less-than-ideal setup and still dominate. While I am very confident Robinson will prove to be elite… I’d rather go with the guy who’s already shown it. We know Breece’s floor (RB2), and I can’t find a compelling reason to say Robinson’s ceiling is higher.
Additionally, when comparing their offseason situation gains, I feel Hall wins. Both QB improvements will be massive, but Hall’s offensive line gains are significantly greater. His outlook is even more improved, and we’ve seen him do “more-with-less.”
Ultimately, both will be phenomenal Round 1 picks, especially given the scarcity of true league-changing RBs and the depth at WR in redraft leagues. They rank as my #4 and #5 overall players in my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board and Rankings, behind only the “Big 3.”
Nonetheless, if you’re blessed to have a choice between Beece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson, pick Hall with confidence.
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