Ugh. Once again, you’ve landed one of the last four picks of Round 1 for your 2024 Fantasy Football Draft. Why do the Fantasy Gods hate you?
Not to fret! There is plenty of tantalizing talent from Picks 9-12 in 2024. Plus, the players available to begin Round 2 look juicy, too.
In my opinion, there are 2 WRs or 2 RBs who all have “Elite No.1 Upside” available at the end of Round 1. Below, I go in order of who I have ranked 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board and Rankings.
Other 2024 Fantasy Football First-Round Dilemmas
- Who to Pick 1st in 2024 Fantasy Football
- Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson: Who is the Better 2024 Fantasy Pick?
- Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown
Note: This is a preview of our 2024 RSJ Draft Guide. If you enjoy, we know you’ll LOVE the full guide. Click the picture below to learn more & get it half off (only $10!)
Pick 9 = AJ Brown (PHI, WR5)
Since moving to Philly, AJ Brown has finished as the WR5 in PPR leagues in back-to-back seasons, notching 144 and 157 targets in the deserved “Alpha Role.”
Even if you were just getting what he’s consistently done with the Eagles, Brown would be a phenomenal pick at 9 overall. Yet, there’s some room for optimism.
Through 9 weeks, AJ Brown and the Eagles were cooking. Brown was the WR2 in fantasy with 22.6 FPPG, trailing only Tyreek Hill, while 6 of his first 9 games were Top-12, and 89% were Top-24. He was on pace for 172 targets, 126 receptions, 1898 yards, and 11 TDs (384 FPs, sheesh!)
Unfortunately, Brown and the Eagles collapsed over the second-half. AJB only averaged 11.26 FPPG as the WR37 in this span. Jalen Hurts definitely was playing through some tough injuries, and the offense as a whole completely caved in.
Which AJ Brown should you expect in 2024? I do think Kellen Moore brings some optimism.
No, Moore’s run with the Chargers didn’t go as planned. After engineering some explosive Dallas attacks, Moore’s Chargers ranked just 18th in total yards and 21st in total points.
Yet, Moore’s offense has ranked top-6 in points per game in 4 of 5 seasons. They’ve been Top-5 in YFS per game in 4 of 5 seasons. They’ve been Top-4 in situation-neutral pace of play in 4 of 5 seasons, and top-7 in plays per game in 5 of 5 seasons.
Expect this Eagles team to be up-tempo and to run a lot of plays, and hopefully score a lot of points.
Moore has also been masterful at using his WRs in motion and creating phenomenal “lay-up” looks for his weapons. Last year, Keenan Allen finished as the WR3 in FPPG while leading the NFL with 11.7 Targets per game (199 tgt pace). CeeDee Lamb leapt from the WR19 to the WR5 under Moore’s tutelage and slot usage.
In 2022, CeeDee Lamb led the NFL with 87 PPR points as the pre-snap motion man. The next-highest total was 56. In 2023, Keenan Allen led the NFL with 105 PPR points as the pre-snap motion man. Allen had never scored more than 40 points as the pre-snap motion man in a season prior to teaming up with Moore.
Imagine what a talent like AJ Brown could do with this type of “lay-up usage?!” Sure, Devonta Smith could also man this role well, but no WR has more fantasy points on “short routes” than AJB (1.81 FPs per Short Target). His run-after-the-catch abilities make him a natural choice to thrive in this role.
Thus, AJB comes with the “know what you’re getting (WR5)” floor, with the upside of a massive ceiling boost if he gets the Keenan / Lamb role. Sign me up at 9 all day!
Pick 10 = Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR7)
If any end-of-Round 1 WR is going to take a CeeDee Lamb style leap, it’s Garrett Wilson. Anyone with eyeballs can see the dude is a special talent, capable of attacking every layer of the field with every type of route. He ranked 5th in ESPN’s Open Score, and drew volume like an elite WR should, ranking ninth in target share (27.1%), first in air-yard share (45.8%), and fifth in first-read share (36.8%).
Wilson simply has had no one to get him the rock. Last season, the Jets ranked 30th in adjusted completion rate and 27th in catchable target rate. He was bottom-3 in catchable targets in both 2022 and 2023.
Enter Aaron Rodgers. From Jordy Nelson, to Greg Jennings, to Randall Cobb, to of course most recently Davante Adams, the list of WR1s thriving with Rodgers is long. In fact, any Rodgers WR to see 140+ targets has never finished worse than WR4! (Per BDGE)
Wilson has all the ability to be Rodgers’ next great WR1. Rodgers himself acknowledged this, saying, “He’s got all the makings of a star receiver,” Rodgers said. “And we feel like if we can both stay healthy that we can accomplish a lot this year, but it’s going to be important we communicate.”
Coming off an Achilles tear, Rodgers health is no guarantee. At minimum, the Jets signed Tyrod Taylor, a very capable backup, which should buoy the floor quite a bit if Rodgers is to miss time.
This is a pretty easy case to make, and even as someone who was burned by Wilson (moreso his QBs) last year, I am more than ready to go back to the well in 2024.
Pick 11 = Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB4)
There’s no denying the Hero RB fantasy upside here in Jonathan Taylor. He is just two seasons removed from finishing as the clear RB1, with 2171 YFS and 20 total TDs on a massive 384 opportunities. This new Colts offense under Shane Steichen offers tons of upside. In the few games with Anthony Richardson, the Colts were 1st in pace and no huddle rate, 3rd in average play clock seconds, and 1st in combined plays run (w/ opponents) and 7th in combined points. Even without him, the Colts ranked 12th in plays run and 11th in points. This is a RIPE fantasy environment, especially out of the backfield.
Taylor also played well once his legs were under him and saw meaningful work. From Week 7 onward, JT was the RB3 in Fantasy with 16.8 FPPG. He finished Top-12 in 56% of his games. If you combined Zach Moss and JT’s scoring from starts, you’d get 268.6 FPs, which would have ranked RB2 on the season. This is not a perfect science and can’t obviously be assumed, it illustrates the ripe set-up – especially when you mix-in the Colts line ranks third in PFF’s 2024 line rankings, boasting continuity, one of the top tackles duo in the league, and with Ryan Kelly at center.
As one last bonus, Taylor faces the easiest fantasy playoff schedule among RBs too. Yes, his receiving ceiling is completely capped with Richardson, and if Richardson also vultures the larger share of TDs, JT will struggle to pay off his price. But if the Colts want to protect their young QB, I imagine JT gets the lion’s share of opening cracks at the GL. There’s real 1500+ rushing, 15+ TD upside with this talent, scheme, and line mix.
Pick 12 = Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB5)
Early in the offseason, I had been largely fading Saquon Barkley. I was (& remain) worried about the “Tush Push” completely sapping Barkley’s TD upside, while also concerned about his receiving ceiling.
Hurts ranked first in the NFL in TDs inside the five last season (13 attempts, ultimately he had 15 total rushing touchdowns). Also, in Hurts’ two full seasons at QB, the Eagles have ranked 21st and 32nd in RB targets and have consistently been behind the Giants in this metric. Sure, they haven’t had a pass-catcher like Barkley (although Swift is no slouch). Hurts also scrambles for first downs more often than a statue QB who may dump it off. Plus, Barkley will be contending with AJ Brown & Devonta Smith, after spending his career as the passing-game focal point.
Those concerns are all valid still, but I am warming up the more & more I dig into Barkley’s 2024 outlook, and the more positive drumbeat I read.
Granted, it’s never good to overreact to practice news… but we don’t want to underreact either.
In the opening days, longtime Eagles beat noted: “Saquon Barkley was heavily involved in the passing game, and he probably had more receptions than anyone on the team. He lined up all over the formation. The Eagles ran some speed option drills with Hurts and Barkley to open practice…
“It’s often been pointed out that Barkley will be running behind a great offensive line for the first time in his career. But beyond that, he’ll also have a quarterback in Hurts who can draw attention away from him on speed options / RPOs / etc., and with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at wide receiver opposing defenses won’t be able to stick eight defenders in the box to stop him.”
The usage has been so creative, that Barkley hopes to have “Christian McCaffrey level of impact.” Now, I don’t believe Barkley is CMC, perhaps not even close. But RB is a usage driven position. He was behind an Eagles offensive line that was 2023’s top-graded unit and ranked second in PFF’s 2024 Rankings (compared to the 29th Giants). Barkley goes from the 30th-ranked offense to the seventh.
Plus, even with the GL Vulture concerns, Swift actually averaged 1.5x Barkley’s goal-line carries per game last year (14 attempts over 16 games compared to Barkley’s eight over 14 games). Miles Sanders just hit 11 TDs and an RB12 finish, and Barkley offers a FAR greater ceiling. Given the massive three-year, $37.8 Million contract, the Eagles are incentivized to use him, too. If these pass-catching & GL concerns bend in Barkley’s favor, a “Legendary Season” is within his range of outcomes, and much likelier than I originally gave him credit for.
NOTE: Given the “WR Avalanche” of Best Ball, I have WRs ranked higher than both Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley to close out Round One on my 2024 Best Ball Big Board and Rankings.
What should you do in Early Round 2?
Well, to get the full answer and all my favorite player targets, you’ll have to check out my 2024 Fantasy Football Investing Guide (full refund if you don’t think it’s worth the $10 you spent!)
Yet, as a further sneak peek: I love balancing out my multi-starter positions with my first two picks. If I went AJ Brown or Garrett Wilson down here, I’d aim to get an RB (Kyren, Gibbs). If I went Barkley or JT, I’d be targeting a WR (Puka).
I am also not opposed to going RB-RB at the tail end of drafts this year, at least in redraft (in Best Ball, the WRs economy is too wild to go RB-RB). With so many quality WRs available in Rounds 3-8, and only 6-8 true “Hero Worthy RBs” available, I don’t mind taking two stabs at the position late in Round 1 (i.e. Saquon-Kyren).
Thank you for checking out this preview of The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! If you found it helpful, I PROMISE you’ll love the guide. I go Round-by-Round to tell you the who, why, and when of fantasy drafting. For just $10, you can support a small brand’s dreams + get the guide that wins you your league! Thank you for considering it.
