Congrats! You’ve got the first pick in 2024 Fantasy Football…
For once, the Fantasy Gods have blessed you! Whether your draft order was determined in a funny way, or it was just the luck of the draw, you’ve been granted the first pick of your 2024 fantasy football draft!
The question quickly becomes: who should you take?
To me, there are only three players you should even be considering with the 1.01. I also believe there is a clear top choice to go first overall in the 2024 fantasy football.
The pick is between: Christian McCaffrey vs. CeeDee Lamb vs. Tyreek Hill. Who should it be?
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Why Christian McCaffrey Should be the First Pick in 2024 Fantasy Football
CMC ranks as the fantasy RB3, RB1, RB1, RB8, RB2, and RB1 across his past six seasons. His 2019 season was the fifth-highest scoring for an RB of ALL-TIME, and he was on pace to score even more before an injury in 2020.
Unsurprisingly, a versatile weapon like CMC and a genius play caller like Kyle Shanahan has been a match made in fantasy wet dreams. In 26 games with the 49ers, CMC has:
- Topped 20 Half PPR points in 15-of-26 games (57.6%)
- Finished as a Top-12 RB a whopping 77%
- Finished as a top-5 RB in 14-of-26 games (54%). Absurd!
Graphic via RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer
Last year, McCaffrey was first in total opportunities, fourth in RB targets, first in rushing yards, first in rushing TDs, and first in PPR FPPG & total FPs.
McCaffrey checks all the “Legendary RB Upside” boxes: a great offense, a strong line, and meaningful work in every facet of the game, including the red zone. Another 20+ TD season is very possible, even if the 49ers lighten McCaffrey’s load as they’ve promised to do.
Lastly, CMC’s stock is boosted simply because he is a running back, and true every-down RBs are a much more scarce than quality WRs. As such, he was on a whopping 72.8% of ESPN Playoff Rosters, the most of any player last season. His 304 Value Over Replacement (VORP) score was the highest in the league, +82 points Lamb, who ranked second for Half-PPR.
Why CeeDee Lamb Should be the First Pick in 2024 Fantasy Football
As Godly as CMC was last year (73% of ESPN Playoff Rosters!), CeeDee Lamb actually scored more PPR FPs than him & all players not named Josh Allen. Lamb ranked second in WR/RB Half PPR scoring & was the clear WR1 behind a massive breakout.
- 1st in targets (181)
- 1st in receptions (135, 6th-most for an all-time single-season)
- 2nd in yards (1749)
- 1st in total TDs (14 – 2 rushing)
- 1st in PPR FPs (407.2!) & FPPG (24)
- 1st in Half-PPR FFPs (339.7) & FPPG (20)
Even more terrifying? The Cowboys were a pathetic passing attack through the first six weeks. Dak Prescott was the QB22 in FPPG (14.6), while the offense ranked 20th in passing yards & was bottom-five in pass-rate over expectation.
Meanwhile, Lamb was just the WR13 in FPPG (14.5) – fine, but not first-round worthy.
After the Bye, the Cowboys completely changed their philosophy and opened it up. They finished the year first in points (30.1), pass yards (265.8), pass attempts (37.4), and passing TDs (2.2) per game.
From Weeks 8-17 in this high-flying attack, Lamb was a FANTASY GOD:
Yes, Lamb scored 28.9 PPR FPPG and was on pace for 215 tgts, 156 rec, 1969 yds, 17 TDs & 491 FPs!
491 FPs would be the most ALL TIME by a WR– 52 more FPs than Cooper Kupp’s legendary 2021.
With the Cowboys likely to sling it early and often again given the lack of run-game presence, Lamb could legit sustain that wild pace for all of 2024. Dallas added no legitimate target threats out wide either, and I truly think he could push for 200+ targets with legit 2,000 Yard & 18+ TD upside in 2024.
In PPR leagues, and even Half, Lamb does demand consideration to be the first pick in drafts — especially if you believe his second-half pace is more reflective of what we can expect in 2024 (as I do). The main risk now is whether or not Lamb will return to play on time this year.
Why Tyreek Hill Should be the First Pick of 2024 Fantasy Football
The last of my “God Tier,” Hill’s 2023 ranked 9th all-time in total FPs (376). He has now finished as the WR2 in back-to-back seasons since joining the Dolphins, and is used to perfection by Mike McDaniels.
Indeed, Hill’s final stat-line was impressive: 172 tgts (3rd), 119 rec (2nd), 1799 yards (1st), 13 TDs (2nd). Additionally, he ultimately was on more playoff rosters than Lamb (70.3% vs. 65%), likely because Hill was elite for longer stretches.
Yet, it’s even more mind-boggling considering Hill’s slight drop-off in performance following a Week 14 injury against the Titans that forced Hill to miss one game and play at less than 100% the rest of the way.
Before the injury (Weeks 1-13), Hill was actually on pace to beat his goal to become the first 2,000+ yard receiver in NFL History:
Hill was on pace for 181 tgts, 132 rec, 2098 yards (!!), and 17 TDs. A true game-wrecker. He set this as his goal for the season last year, and likely would’ve hit it.
There’s little reason to expect much, if any, drop off in 2024. Jaylen Waddle may be healthier, and Hill himself said 2,000 yards would be “very selfish” of him. Plus, Tua seems to always crap himself at the end of the year, which has dragged down Hill slightly when you need him most.
Nonetheless, last year’s most-owned playoff WR is in a tier with only Lamb and CMC as true “Fantasy Gods,” and no one could fault you for taking him 1st overall, especially if Lamb’s holdout continues.
Final Choice: Who Should be the First Pick in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts?
While the two WRs are worthy candidates, ultimately, Christian McCaffrey is the only answer here. He comes with added risk, simply because he plays RB, and is coming off of a massive touch total.
Still, CMC is also the most likely to distance himself from the field. He was the only RB to provide “League-Winning” value (on 55%+ playoff rosters) in 2023. I do think Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson have a shot to reach similar levels in 2024, but CMC is the only true lock if he’s healthy.
Meanwhile, 2023 was the first time that Top-3 WRs as a group were more valuable in VORP than RBs, largely because of Lamb’s and Hill’s dominance. WRs are also far less likely to flat-out bust than RBs, and Lamb and Hill do have less risk just because of the nature of their position. Especially in PPR, you can make the case to take them over McCaffrey.
Still, I side with CMC due to the positional scarcity. The added risk is worth it, especially (as highlighted in my 2024 Round-by-Round Guide) given just how deep the WR Talent Pool is from Rounds 3-8.
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