First-Round Fantasy Dilemmas: Picks 6-8
Imagine your first round of your 2024 Fantasy Football Draft. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill go 1, 2, 3. Next, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson get snagged. You have Pick 6, and you’re deciding between three supremely talented WR1s:
Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. Which WR1 should you pick? Who is the No.3 WR in 2024 Fantasy Football?
As the old saying goes: you can’t win your fantasy draft in the first round, but you can lose it. While I don’t think any of these three guys will lose you the league, one will certainly be “more right.” Let’s dive into the 2024 Fantasy Outlooks of Jefferson vs. Chase vs. St. Brown and decide who should be the pick.
Other 2024 Fantasy Football First-Round Dilemmas
- Who Should Go First Overall in 2024 Fantasy?
- Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson: Who is the Better 2024 Fantasy Pick?
- Who to Draft at the End of Round One in 2024 Fantasy Football?
If you enjoy this content, we promise you’ll LOVE The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft for only $10!
Why You Should Pick Justin Jefferson in 2024 Fantasy Football
The WR6, WR4, and WR1 prior to last year’s injury-marred campaign, Jefferson is arguably the most-talented WR in the entire NFL. Despite the injuries to himself and his QBs last year, Jefferson was still the WR5 in FPPG – just as dominant as ever.
Check out his game log: Jefferson was a Top-12 WR and topped 24 FPs in 6-of-10 games (60%), and two of those 10 games he either was injured (Week 5) or being eased into the line up (Week 14). Really, he was Top-12 in 6-of-8 games (75%)
Graphics via RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer
Losing Kirk Cousins will undoubtedly hurt. Yet, in four games with Mullens as the starter, Jefferson posted 15.4 (WR22), 26.1 (WR7), 10.9 (WR35), and 37.2 (WR1) FPs. While I would have preferred JJ McCarthy (out for 2024), Sam Darnold looked excellent thus far during the 2024 preseason and Training Camp.
I give a ton of credit to HC Kevin O’Connell, a pass-happy branch of the Sean McVay tree. In two years calling plays, O’Connell’s Vikings have racked up:
- Pass Attempts: 672 (3rd) and 631 (4th)
- Passing Yards: 4818 (2nd) and 4700 (1st)
- Passing TDs: 30 both years, 4th both years
Consider they achieved these totals with Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall all making starts, and it’s clear: O’Connell is a passing game wizard. WRs seem to run wide-open in this offense, and even with the added defensive attention, Jefferson regularly roams free. This offense is going to throw early, often, and successfully, no matter who’s under-center.
If none of that compels you, well, just remember: Jefferson is the best WR in the game. Talent will always solidify the floor, and open up the ceiling, no matter how bad the surrounding play may be (and it doesn’t project to be terrible).
Why You Should Pick Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2024 Fantasy Football
Since Amon-Ra St. Brown became a starter in Week 13 of his rookie season, he has been a Top-12 WR in a whopping 50% of his games. He has also been Top-24 in an even-more impressive 71% of games
St. Brown is perhaps the safest Round 1 WR in fantasy. His weekly consistency is unparalleled, yet don’t let his high-floor detract from a similarly high-ceiling.
As the graphs show, ASB’s log is littered with 20+ FP performances, and include plenty of 30+ FP spike weeks too. He has seldom been a line-up killer, falling outside of the Top-24 WRs in just 29% of games.
St. Brown eats up “lay-up targets,” posting 145 and 164 looks over his past two seasons (after an impressive 119 as a part-time rookie). With TD luck rebounding for him in 2023, ASB finished as the WR3 behind only Lamb and Hill (21.1 PPR FPPG, 17.3 Half-PPR). He ranked 5th in targets, 2nd in receptions, 3rd in yards, and 6th in TDs.
ASB also achieved these impressive totals while playing with a torn oblique! He’s simply so damn good and steady. With Ben Johnson and Jared Goff both returning, ASB should once again eat his steady, always-helpful production. His consistency gives him a major edge in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts.
Why You Should Pick Ja’Marr Chase in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
I called Jefferson the best WR in football earlier… and yet, when he was teammates with Ja’Marr Chase at LSU, Chase was the clear No.1. Chase is so violently explosive, both in his routes and with the ball in his hands, and he truly has zero gaps in his game. Besides maybe Tyreek Hill, no one can flip a game– real life or fantasy– faster than Chase.
That’s because Chase’s ceiling is unmatched. Over the past three years, Chase has the two highest-scoring games among WRs, with 55.6 FPs (2021) and 52.2 FPs (2023):
Yet, while these graphs illustrate Chase’s monstrous spike-week potential, they also showcase his volatility. He may be a bit more boom-or-bust than fantasy managers realize, even with Joe Burrow in the lineup.
Across his three seasons, Chase has been a Top-12 WR just 33% of the time and Top-24 just 44%. He’s much more regularly busted and been out of lineups, with over half of his games (56%) outside the Top-25.
Indeed, Burrow has been in-and-out of the lineup for stretches of Chase’s career, and especially didn’t look healthy for much of 2023. When Burrow played a full season in 2022, Chase posted a career high 20.5 FPPG (WR3).
Yet, this total is actually below ASB’s performance last year (21.1). In his career with Burrow, Chase averages 18.35 FPPG, below ASB’s career average of 19.9 FPPG as a starter:
Had Tee Higgins moved on, I would’ve had Chase as the clear WR3 after Hill and Lamb. Yet, Higgins is still here. Chase is the clear No.1 at this stage of their careers, but faces far stiffer-competition than ASB, who absolutely eats first-read targets.
Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown: Final Choice
The choice = Justin Jefferson.
I understand why Chase is the locked-in WR3 for 2024 Fantasy Best Ball formats. Those single-game spike-weeks are SO massive when you’re trying to beat out a massive field. During his rookie year, that 52 FP effort came during Week 17 championships. If you didn’t have Chase in a Best Ball tournament, you had 0% chance to win.
Moreover, his volatility is easier to stomach, as his lower-scoring efforts are removed automatically.
Yet, in a managed redraft league, I actually have Chase the lowest of these three. He’s my WR5 and 8th overall player on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board and Rankings. Both Jefferson and St. Brown come with much higher weekly floors, so you know you’re nearly guaranteed a useful fantasy day. This headache-free, set-and-forget type of consistency is what I crave from my first-round picks.
It’s not as if Jefferson or St. Brown’s ceiling is significantly lower, either. In fact, Jefferson’s 2022 (21.7 FPPG) and St. Brown’s 2023 (21.5 FPPG) are both higher than Chase’s career-best single-season (20.5 FPPG).
Thus, the choice comes down to Jefferson vs. St. Brown for me.
Between the two, I go Jefferson. He is just one season removed from finishing as the WR1, and has the highest FPPG finish of any of these three. I’m not worried about Darnold or McCarthy tanking his value, as O’Connell has been a passing-game guru no matter who’s under-center.
Ultimately, the pick will come down to your preference of floor vs. single-week ceiling. Nobody in the league can match the one-week ceiling of Chase, but I prefer the steadiness of ASB and Jefferson, especially because both have plenty of spikes (albeit more frequently and less dramatically).
Jefferson has the slightly higher ceiling, and ultimately he deserves to be the Number 3 WR drafter after Lamb and Hill. Jefferson ranks #4 overall in my 2024 Fantasy Football Best Ball Rankings, and is #6 overall in my 2024 Fantasy Football Redraft Rankings.
If you enjoyed this, you’ll LOVE The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! He dives deep into not just every Round 1 player, but goes Round-by-Round to tell you the who, why, and when of fantasy drafting. For just $10, you can support a small brand’s dreams + get the guide that wins you your league! Thank you for considering it.
