When it comes to predicting or playing 2023 NFL season-long player props or futures, it’s always smart to be ahead of the curve. Luckily, we are in the fantasy business and it’s our job to do this year around, so you don’t have to dig deep before training camp news becomes mainstream knowledge.
Do you want to take advantage of Underdog Fantasy and its elite pay structure that pays up to 20x per entry? Well, you’re in luck because we’re here to give you a 100% deposit bonus. Click the yellow banner below or use promo code RSJ after downloading the Underdog Fantasy app to get up to a $100 match on your first deposit.
After scouring Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em for a handful of locks, I came up with 13 picks that I love before training camp kicks off. Remember, you can pair two of these picks together to 3X your entry or you can pick up to five to 20x your entry. If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, don’t forget to use our promo code (RSJ) to double your deposit.
Let’s get it!
RUSSELL WILSON OVER 3800.5 PASSING YARDS
Russell Wilson is in for a major resurgence in Denver after the team lured Sean Payton away from retirement. Wilson was 277 yards away from this mark during last season’s dumpster fire and with Payton now calling the shots, Wilson has a chance to exceed 4,000 yards through the air. We all know what Drew Brees did in Payton’s offense and Wilson has eclipsed this number in five of the last six seasons that he played 16-plus games. Lock it in.
MAC JONES OVER 17.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Mac Jones? Seriously? Yep. I expect a major bounceback for the third-year quarterback after suffering through a Matt Patricia-led offense in 2022 after throwing for 22 touchdowns as a rookie. Even with Patricia calling the shots, Jones was only four off from covering here and with familiar face Bill O’Brien running the offense, expect Jones to throw over 20 touchdowns this season. The Patriots added JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki to its passing attack, which should be a boost over last year’s pass-catchers. I am all-in on an improved Patriots’ offense under BOB this season, and you should be too.
TREVOR LAWRENCE OVER 3975.5 PASSING YARDS
I gave this exact same play last year and it flew over with ease. So, why did the books only add 25 yards to Trevor Lawrence’s total after throwing for 4,113 yards last season? I’m not sure. But, I’m not going to overthink it. Lawrence not only returns Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones, and Travis Etienne, but the team also added Calvin Ridley, one of the league’s top route technicians. Ridley, who I’ll get to later, had a 1,374-yard season in 2020 and should give an even greater boost to this ascending offense. Give me all the Jags’ player props.
NICK CHUBB OVER 8.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS
This seems like stealing. Nick Chubb, arguably the league’s most talented runner, has the backfield all to himself after sharing it with Kareem Hunt for the past four seasons. While Chubb has only gone over eight rushing touchdowns twice in his career (12 in 2022 and 2020), he’s hit exactly eight touchdowns in his other three seasons. It’s going to be the Nick Chubb Show in Cleveland this year and even The Wolf has projected him for 15 touchdowns on the season.
DAMEON PIERCE OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS
For some reason, this prop caught my eye. Dameon Pierce only hit paydirt four times on 220 carries last year, but with CJ Stroud under center, the offense as a whole should level up in 2023. Although the team will likely suck again, I believe they will be more competitive and Pierce should see more goal-line carries than he saw last season. Miss me with Devin Singletary, it’s Pierce’s backfield and he might find the end zone eight times this year.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON OVER 925.5 RUSHING YARDS
The Patriots relied heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson last season and expect the team to do so once again (if they don’t sign Dalvin Cook). Stevenson racked up 1,040 rushing yards on 210 carries (5.0 ypc) while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris in 2022. With Harris’ 106 carries now available, Stevenson’s only true carry competition appears to be Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong Jr., and Kevin Harris. Please, ‘Mondre is a lock for over 1,000 rushing yards this season.
SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 975.5 RUSHING YARDS
With only a week to go until Training Camp and Saquon still holding out, this is a tricky bet right now. But, assuming Barkley does not pull a LeVeon Bell, I don’t see any reason why he should not rush for over 1,000 yards (if healthy). Saquon hit 1,312 rushing yards last year on nearly 300 carries and I expect the Giants to ride him once again if he suits up for Week 1. I’m going to trust my gut that Barkley will be there Week 1 and I have no worries about his work ethic while he sits out of camp. He’s built like a Greek god and there’s no way he would show up out of shape. Let’s take advantage of this low line while we can.
AMARI COOPER OVER 875.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Amari Cooper is coming off another 1,000-yard season and he did it with Jacoby Brissett for 11 games and a rusty Deshaun Watson for only six games. Now, with Watson getting a full offseason with the Browns playbook in his hand and hopefully his hands to himself, Cooper just feels like a good bet to go over 1,000 yards. The team added Elijah Moore to the slot, but lost Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. This total feels about 50 yards too low.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 1010.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Sun God is in for one hell of a season. After breaking out as a sophomore with 1,161 yards on 146 targets in 16 games, Amon-Ra St. Brown could be looking at a 1,300-yard season on the horizon. Now with the Lions firmly on the map and no longer a cute story, it’s St. Brown’s time to shine as an elite WR1. Sure, Dan Campbell will want to pound the rock with David Montgomery and Jahmry Gibbs, but St. Brown will gobble up targets alongside Marvin Jones Jr., Josh Reynolds, and Jameson Williams (after he returns from suspension). Similarly to AJ Brown last season, Amon-Ra will prove himself right away and continue his dominance throughout the season. Lock it up.
CALVIN RIDLEY OVER 855.5 RECEIVING YARDS
As noted above, I’m all-in on the Jaguars’ offense and especially the Lawrence-Ridley connection. By all accounts, the two gelled quickly during OTAs, and Ridley has what it takes to be the true alpha in this offense. Don’t be scared off by the other mouths that need to be fed, because Ridley’s elite route running makes him Doug Pederson’s chain-mover. Dare I say, 1,200 yards is Ridley’s ceiling in this offense?
DEEBO SAMUEL UNDER 825.5 RECEIVING YARDS
There are so many questions that need to be answered to believe in Deebo Samuel as a pass-catcher this season. Who the hell will be the quarterback? Is Brandon Aiyuk actually the No. 1 WR? Will George Kittle stay healthy and ball out again? Are there too many talented mouths to feed? Will CMC have a million touches? And for all of those reasons, I’m out on Deebo Samuel.
DARREN WALLER OVER 4.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS
This just seems to be stealing from a baby. Brian Daboll and the Giants went out and made a major splash early on in free agency when they dealt for Darren Waller from the Raiders. Waller, who’s been banged up for the past few seasons, appeared to be devastated by the trade, but a pissed-off and motivated Waller could do wonders for him and his new team. He will be competing with Barkley and Daniel Jones for touches in the red zone, but he will easily be Jones’ top target in the red area. Waller could be the missing piece in a Giants offense that’s looking to take the next step and it would not shock me to see him score nearly double-digit touchdowns this season, barring health.
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 1125.5 RECEIVING YARDS
There are only three guaranteed in life: Death, Taxes, and Travis Kelce.
Good luck!
