I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here when I say that the playoffs have not been so kind to me. After going 14-12 (+16.26 units) during the regular season, I have unfortunately gone 4-8 (-.47 units) since the start of the playoffs.
On the bright side, I still have a better playoff winning percentage than Lamar Jackson! And unlike Lamar Jackson, I get to keep making plays tomorrow! We’ve got some electric matchups for Conference Championship weekend, so let’s get right into my best bets!
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
For my first pick on Sunday, I will be riding with the NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers, to throw for over 2.5 touchdowns (+124). I loved this pick when I made it in Week 13 against the Eagles and I love it even more this week as Rodgers takes on a Tampa Bay defense that may not be as good as some “experts” are making them out to be.
Tampa Bay’s Defense
During the regular season, Tampa Bay gave up 29 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. That’s good for the 11th most in the league this season. I’ve heard a lot of chatter about how the Buccaneers have figured things out on defense as of late. Have they? Or have they just faced an XFL quarterback and a lifeless Drew Brees? I’ll give it to Taylor Heinicke, he played well. But after two weeks of facing off against average to below-average quarterback play, this Tampa Bay defense is going to be in for a rude awakening when they have to try and stop Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.
It’s no secret that Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are the highest-scoring offense in football this year as they averaged a staggering 31.8 points per game during the regular season. Even after a bye week, the Packers didn’t miss a beat as they hung 32 points on a Rams defense that gave up the fewest points per game this season! If Rodgers and the Packers can do that against the Rams, just imagine how Sunday is going to go against Tampa Bay.
Aaron Rodgers: Man on a Mission
I will absolutely be hammering the over on this prop on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers has thrown for at least three touchdowns in 12 of his 17 games this season. And yes, I know that Rodgers did not throw a single touchdown pass in the 38-10 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 6. That’s perfectly fine with me! Considering that Rodgers had the third worst completion percentage of his career that Sunday, I’m going to chalk that game up as a fluke. In fact, for our sake, it’s probably best that Rodgers had such a horrendous game in Week 6. I’m sure he’s been pissed off all season about that loss and everyone knows that a pissed off Aaron Rodgers is the most dangerous quarterback in the world.
To add fuel to the fire, Rodgers has lost his last three NFC championship games. If Rodgers is ever going to win a second ring, this is going to be the year. I have no doubt in my mind that Rodgers is going to do everything in his power to get back to the Super Bowl.
If I haven’t convinced you already, let me pull on your heartstrings and leave you with this:
This past Wednesday, former Packers general manager Ted Thompson passed away at the age of 68. On top of constructing the Super Bowl XLV winning team, Thompson was the GM who drafted Rodgers when 23 other teams passed on him. If you don’t think Rodgers is going to go out there Sunday and give it everything he’s got for Ted Thompson, you’re an insane person. Aaron Rodgers will throw for at least three touchdowns and the Packers will be going on to play in the Super Bowl. Lock it in!
2. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
For my second and final pick of Sunday, I will be taking Stefon Diggs to haul in over 94.5 receiving yards (-118) as he takes on a Kansas City secondary that is quite susceptible to the deep ball. Despite the fact that the honey badger is lurking, the Chiefs have given up their fair share of big plays this season.
Glaring Holes in Kansas City Defense
The Kansas City Chiefs gave up 27 pass plays this season of 25-plus yards. That’s certainly not what you want to see from a championship-caliber defense! In fact, at least two passes of 25-plus yards were completed in 13 of their 17 games this season. If I were a Chiefs fan, I would be even more concerned about the fact that Kansas City’s secondary has given up eight completions of 40-plus yards this season. Although the Chiefs have lost just once all season, their inability to defend against the big play is going to come back to bite them this Sunday.
Interestingly enough, Allen and the Bills were not one of the teams to complete a big play downfield against the Chiefs this season. When the Bills took on the Chiefs in Week 6, Josh Allen’s longest completion was a 22-yard pass to Cole Beasley as the Bills lost to the Chiefs 26-17. However, we have to remember that the Bills were coming off of a short week in which they played the Titans the previous Tuesday. Come Sunday night, the Bills will certainly be rested and ready to take on the soft Kansas City defense.
Stefon’s Career Year
The last time these two teams met, Diggs had his worst game of the season as he caught 6-of-8 targets for just 46 yards. Despite a clunker that night in Week 6, Diggs still managed to average 95.9 receiving yards per game this season. Since Week 13, Diggs is averaging a whopping 117.7 yards per game! Allen and Diggs are operating in an entirely different stratosphere as of late. In his two playoff games, Diggs has hauled in 14 of his 20 targets for 234 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s an average of 17.3 yards per reception this postseason.
If we’re going to assume that Diggs gets another 10 targets Sunday against Kansas City, he should easily surpass his receiving yards total sometime in the third quarter. If you’re looking for some extra action on Diggs, his receptions total is set at 7.5. With the volume he’s been getting thus far this postseason, I could easily see Diggs having 10 receptions Sunday as the Bills look to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are the two best friends that anyone could have and I have no doubt that they will connect for some big plays downfield just as they have done all season. I will absolutely be hammering the over on this one! Full disclosure, I can’t stand those scumbag Kansas City Chiefs. But there’s absolutely no bias in my decision making on this pick. Zero bias. Full journalistic integrity. LETS GO BILLS!
Good luck!
3 games of football left! Tail at your own risk. You can find all these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Good luck everybody! Let’s win some money and, as always, bet responsibly.
