Week 14 Recap: Derrick “The Little Tractor” Henry. What a performance from this man last week. 26 carries, 215 yards rushing, and 2 touchdowns for a whopping 39.2 DK points. Kendall called a solid stack in Kenyan Drake and the Cardinals DST, while Tino called Nelson Agholor as his value of the week, who exploded for 24 DK points at only 1.4% ownership… well done to you, sir. But it’s a new week, so let’s get to it:
Week 15 DFS Battle
| Kendall’s Lineup | Tino’s Lineup | |
| QB | Lamar Jackson, $7,500 | Jared Goff, $6,300 |
| RB | Derrick Henry, $9,500 | Derrick Henry, $9,500 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara, $7,400 | Cam Akers, $6,600 |
| WR | Danny Amendola, $4,200 | Cooper Kupp, $7,000 |
| WR | Christian Kirk, $4,300 | Kendrick Bourne, $4,100 |
| WR | Willie Snead IV, $4,300 | Laviska Shenault, $3,800 |
| TE | Cole Kmet, $3,000 | Dallas Goedert, $3,900 |
| Flex | D’Andre Swift, $6,500 | Kenyan Drake, $5,500 |
| DST | 49ers, $3,100 | 49ers, $3,100 |
Stacks of the Week
KB: My stack of the week comes from the bay area with Jeff Wilson Jr and the 49ers DST. Firstly, let’s start with the matchup. The 49ers are taking on the Dallas Cowboys who have allowed the 3rd most rushing touchdowns this season (13). They’ve also surrendered the 2nd most rushing yards of any team in the NFL this season (1727 rushing yards). The 49ers LOVE to run the ball and this is a matchup of strength against weakness. I think Wilson is a solid play even in this committee of a backfield, but if Mostert can’t suit up for this matchup, he’s a must-play against this putrid Cowboys defense.
Now onto the Cowboys side of the ball. The 49ers are one of six teams in the NFL yet to give up 1,000 yards rushing on the season which means Zeke and Tony Pollard should struggle running the ball. This should force the Cowboys into some difficult down and distance situations and I’m not scared of Andy Dalton at QB. Additionally, Dalton has been sacked at least 3 times in half of his starts this season and despite this 49ers defense not being as vaunted as last season, they’re still an above-average defense in a decent matchup.
Even with this bad Niners defense, I think this game hits the under which should mean good things for my stack this week.
JT: Not exactly making a bold prediction here, but I love the pairing of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins this week. After losing three straight and looking like a different team, Kyler and the Cardinals bounced back against a pesky Giants defense. How did they bounce back offensively? Through the hands of Nuk. Arizona peppered Hopkins early and often against the Giants, leaving him with a 9 reception and 136-yard stat line. No other receiver went for more than 27 yards (Dan Arnold).
Against an average (at best) defense in Philadelphia, I expect Hopkins to exploit whoever the Eagles task with covering him. This is a must-win situation for the Cardinals, and I view Murray and Hopkins as an extremely high floor play. Look for 10+ targets to go Nuk’s way and for the duo to connect on at least one score.
Triple Stack of the Week
KB: The band is FINALLY back together! Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas (Thomas was later declared OUT) have not played in a game together since Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Once again let me start with the matchup for this trio. The Saints get to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the highest projected O/U of the week. The Chiefs defense has been okay against opposing RBs allowing the 12th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season. While this isn’t the juiciest of matchups, at the end of the day it’s Kamara. With Brees back, Kamara should revert back to his 7+ targets per game on top of his usual work running the ball.
The same cannot be said about the matchup for Michael Thomas. The Chiefs allow the second-fewest points per game to opposing WRs. Now, this would be worrisome to me if Drew Brees wasn’t coming back, but with Brees now expected to be back in the lineup, Thomas will hopefully return to the MT of old. He seems to be hitting his stride a bit having eclipsed 80 yards and/or 7 receptions in 3 of his last 4 games.
The case for Drew Brees is the tougher of the 3. He’s playing his first game in a month, but when we last saw him he was having another great season. He’s playing in the highest O/U game of the week, with his full arsenal of weapons. While this play is risky, the payoff could be great.
I like this triple stack because I think it could be a contrarian play. Prior to the news coming out that Brees would be back in the lineup as the Saints starting QB, the projected ownership on Kamara and Thomas was 8.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Both Kamara and Thomas have the ability to absolutely break a slate in any given week and in large GPP tournaments, these are the type of players you want in your lineups. There is the risk that Brees goes down to injury and screws up your lineup, but he’s been cleared to play so I’m going to take the chance.
JT: My pick to win the NFC championship rolls into New York to face some stiff competition from the Jets. Adam Gase’s 0-13 team was steamrolled 40-3 last week by the Seahawks, who literally decided to sit Russell Wilson in the 3rd quarter.
My pick this week comes purely from a matchup standpoint, and who I expect to be the most likely to exploit these massive weaknesses for Gang Green. An obvious pick is Jared Goff, as the Jets defense has allowed eight straight top 10 QB performances. There is no better matchup for NFL quarterbacks than the Jets. At $6,300, it feels like a no-brainer to lock in Goff.
As for the second component of the triple stack, I expect Cooper Kupp to exploit the Jets secondary at a higher rate of success than his fellow wide receivers in Los Angeles. The Jets struggle especially to cover the middle of the field, allowing the most points to the tight end position in the entire NFL. While Kupp is not a tight end, the Jets linebackers have visibly struggled with elite route runners working the middle of the field. My first thought when I saw this matchup was how much Keenan Allen took advantage of the Jets slot corners and linebackers, going for 16 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown. I expect Kupp to be another one of these cases on Sunday. While I am not expecting 16 receptions, I would not be surprised at all to see Kupp cross over the 10 reception mark and find himself open at will.
The last piece of my triple stack is Cam Akers. On the mid-round draft strategy live stream that Kendall and I did with Wolf, we all pretty much agreed that we were avoiding Akers in season-long leagues. While that proved to largely be a wise decision, Akers undoubtedly is coming into his own as the alpha in the Rams offense. The Jets usually provide plentiful opportunities for running backs to punch in short touchdowns, and I expect Mcvay to continue to feed his high draft capital running back.
Values of the Week
Tino’s Value of the Week: Laviska Shenault, $3,800
If you’re going to choose to eat the Derrick Henry chalk this week, you are going to have to find at least one or two players under $4,000. My choice for those bargain hunting for upside is Laviska Shenault. After seeing a dip in target share and battling through injury, Shenault burst back onto the scene with 11 targets last week against Tennessee.
Anyone who has watched “Viska” has seen the raw explosiveness that he possesses. He is the type of player who can take a routine short passing route to the house, which is exactly what you are looking for in this portion of the DFS salary pool.
Shenault gets Gardner Minshew back at the helm of the offense this week, which I expect to result in an uptick in Shenault’s usage. Shenault was a much more predictable player with Minshew as his quarterback, seeing at least 6 targets for 4 straight weeks before Minshew was replaced by Mike Glennon.
In a game where the Jags are expected to trail, look for Laviska Shenault to be a primary beneficiary of a pass-happy 2nd half offense with some nice upside.
KB’s Value of the Week: Danny Amendola, $4,200
Tino’s right, if you’re going to eat the Derrick Henry chalk, you’re going to need to find some value in the 4K range. Look no further than slot extraordinaire, Danny Amendola. For only $4,200 Amendola gets to play the Tennessee Titans vulnerable defense. The Titans allow the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs (43.2) so there should be plenty of points to go around. Over the last two weeks, Amendola has been involved, having received a combined 12 targets after missing the previous 2 games. With Kenny Golladay once again projected to miss this week, Ammendola is a nice dart throw in a great matchup against the Titans defense.
P.S. Even with Stafford’s gameday status in question, I like Amendola in this matchup. His role in the slot makes him less reliant on a good QB and you could argue that Amendola will benefit from Stafford sitting out this game. like the Amendola play regardless of who is at QB given just how bad the Titans defense has been.
