Welcome to my second installment of the Fantasy Football Usage Report, which Jon Jackson provided in the previous few seasons. My first time getting my feet wet was last week. At the time of this writing, Monday Night Football hasn’t finished yet.
Little did I know that when I took over this project, it would undergo a total transformation, from data sources to expansion to new metrics based on what Jon had been doing previously.
Feel free to check out the full report here.
Stats were pulled from Pro Football Reference, and built up from there. Metrics referenced here include:
USG — Usage, or Targets+Carries/Team Snaps, denoting how much a player was used during all of their team’s field time
INVL — Involvement, or Targets+Carries/Individual Snaps, denoting how much a player was used during all of their individual field time
U/I — USG/INVL. Ultimately, this is just a player’s snap percentage. But because I look at multiple weeks of USG and INVL, USG/INVL actually uses simpler formulas in my spreadsheet than always referencing a player’s snap percentage
UIP — (USG/INVL)*PPR. Similarly, UIP is just a player’s snap percentage multiplied by their PPR score over the week(s), and to me “UIP” is easier to think of than any abbreviation that would come from “snap percentage times PPR”
DOM — Dominator Rating. A common term in the fantasy football community, it looks at a player’s production and places a value on how much of the individual production accounted for the team’s production
UIP has been particularly fun for me in looking at who is making the most of their opportunities.
In all screenshots, a player’s week 10 snap count is included to help give context to who the fantasy-relevant players are in general. We’re not worried about anyone consistently getting five snaps a game.
Keeping in line with past Workload Reports, its focus on rushing and receiving work means we won’t really be looking at QBs, but instead RBs, WRs, and TEs, and ideally, I’ll be able to add in post-Monday Night Football data later on Tuesday.
First, here’s a look at players’ fantasy scoring differences compared to week 10.
Player Fantasy Scoring Comparisons (In PPR)
Players with the highest percentage of their team’s PPR points in week 10:
Players who saw the highest jump in PPR% compared to their week 5-9 rolling average:
Players who saw their biggest drop in PPR% from their week 5-9 rolling average:
This list more than any is why I include the players’ snap counts column. Players here with high snap counts stand out the most. And while most with zero or close-to-zero snaps mainly denote inactive/injury status, they could reflect a fantasy-relevant player who just saw a major downturn in usage that week (i.e. Ray Davis).
Involvement (INVL)
Players with the highest week 10 INVL:
Chuba Hubbard continues to largely outdo the projection many had for him just a year or two ago, and his 4-year contract extension didn’t convince him to step off the gas pedal at all, going for 153 rushing yards against the hapless Giants in Germany, and making yet another case that Jonathan Brooks won’t be manning the Panthers backfield alone for the foreseeable future.
Both “primary” back for the Buccaneers saw a nice fantasy outing, but it was Bucky Irving who saw the most looks while he was on the field, getting 16 targets/carries over a 46-percent snap share, compared to 17 targets/carries over a 61-percent snap share for Rachaad White.
Audric Estime may be the hottest name off the waiver wire this week, as he saw 14 carries to Javonte Williams‘ one (though Javonte saw 2 targets to none for Audric). Sean Payton said we can likely expect even more work for Estime moving forward.
We’ll see how much comes to fruition. Estime is the sexy name and many in fantasy want to see him take over this backfield, but Payton can be frustrating when it comes to RB usage, I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Tyler Badie back in the mix if he returns this season. Estime went 3.8 yards-per-carry against the Chiefs, not very efficient, but that was against a good defense. The efficiency may need to improve to help dissuade giving other backs considerable work, but I’d say right now he’s reached “it’s his job to lose” status.
Jaylen Warren‘s involvement is encouraging, and supports the argument that his hamstring was holding him back before the bye week. We in the fantasy community will always like to see the more explosive player get more work, but we’ve been wishing for awhile now, and Najee Harris is still playing well enough to make a case for himself not to lose much work. We’ll see, but Warren’s arrow is pointing up this week.
Players with the highest jump in INVL compared to their week 5-9 rolling average:
It’s good to see Christian McCaffrey back and involved again. With an 88-percent snap share and 20 targets/carries, he confirmed what we all knew: any talk of easing him back into action wasn’t happening.
Another one back from injury, TJ Hockenson is quickly quelling any concerns his major knee injury last year means he won’t be full strength until 2025. Eight catches, on nine targets, for 72 yards on just a 46-percent snap count is making anyone who’s stashed since the beginning of the season sleep a lot better this week.
A look at fantasy-relevant players who took a major dip in involvement let us know who to keep an eye on. It could be a one-week fluke
Usage (USG)
Players with the highest week 10 USG:
Not many surprises at the top of the USG list. There’s Estime’s name again, and most notably, Tyjae Spears is back on the fantasy radar. In his first week back from injury, he saw his highest snap share this season (46-percent), with seven carries and three targets. Hopefully we’ll get a clearer picture of how Titans backfield work will shake out next week against the Vikings.
Players with the highest jump in USG compared to their week 5-9 rolling average:
Gus Edwards is back, and disappointing JK Dobbins managers after handling 10 carries for 5.5 yards-per-carry. Dobbins will remain a fantasy starter, but it will be harder for the late-round fantasy pick to be a league-winner.
Tank Bigsby‘s injury status will be worth monitoring, as any hindrance to his workload will make Travis Etienne, while not a sexy name this season, plenty fantasy-relevant again.
Players with the biggest drop in USG compared to their week 5-9 rolling average:
It’s not a surprise that Javonte Williams is at the top of the list for decreased usage, but Ray Davis and Kimani Vidal have undoubtedly saddened and perhaps surprised some fantasy managers this week. Both will be hard to trust at all rest-of-season.
(USG/INVL)*PPR (aka UIP)
Calvin Ridley can’t be expected to do this well with his opportunity regularly with Will Levis back under center, we’ve seen this story before. He’s had his share of spike weeks this season, and last year with the Jaguars.
For the third week in a row, Courtland Sutton has made the most of his opportunities, this week against a good Chiefs defense. He’s the WR16 in half-PPR right now and meriting every week fantasy starter consideration.
UIP (USG/INVL*PPR)
Players with the highest week 10 UIP:
Not surprising to see Ja’Marr Chase take advantage of arguable the worst secondary in the NFL, but man, he didn’t have to do them dirty like that.
Good to see Adonai Mitchell capitalizing on his opportunities, catching all six targets for 71 yards while Michael Pittman is out. I’d say the same for John Metchie. He had a good amount of hype coming into the league, a lot of people rooting for him as he was battling leukemia out of college. He’ll probably fall back into the fantasy background once Nico Collins returns, but good to see him get his first career touchdown in week 10.
Players with the highest UIP compared to their week 5-9 rolling average:
DOM (Dominator Rating)
A couple backup running backs in Braelon Allen and Trey Benson make their way onto the list of the top players in Dominator Rating Rating this week, a likely one-off. Jaylen Warren’s position on the list won’t silence anyone who wants to see him get more touches, but those voices have been talking for awhile now.
Can Marquez Valdes-Scantling return to fringe fantasy relevance? At this point in his career, probably not, but hey, at one time Breshad Perriman was a late season league winner and he’d already been journeying around the league for a few years.
Thanks for reading!
