Since the Bills selected Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, fantasy managers have awaited the rookie’s arrival.
After six weeks of cardio, Kincaid erupted for a team-high eight receptions on eight targets for 75 yards against the Patriots. Then, just a day later, the team announced tight end Dawson Knox would be out indefinitely after undergoing wrist surgery.
The Bills have searched for a reliable pass-catcher alongside Stefon Diggs, and everything is lining up for their rookie tight end to take the reigns– making him a top fantasy football Week 8 waiver wire target.
USAGE ABOUT TO EXPLODE
Kincaid is an exceptional athlete who was a coverage mismatch at Utah out of the slot. He has the size and skill set to get open with ease against safeties or linebackers– making him a chess piece in any offense.
“It looked like he had more targets today over the middle of the defense and man and zone, and I was excited to see that,” Sean McDermott said after Week 7. “We’ve got to continue to do that.”
After a slow start to the season, where he only saw a 9% target share over his first six weeks, he exploded in Week 7 with a 21% target share. Although he was splitting time with Knox in 12 personnel (two-tight end sets), he was heavily involved in the passing game when he was on the field.
More importantly, Allen trusts him, which showed when he targeted him on a critical fourth-down conversion late in the fourth quarter. He also moved the chains four times on his eight receptions.
With Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, and others unable to step up to take the heat off Stefon Diggs, Kincaid could be that guy to level up the offense.
Due to his “big slot” skill set, he mostly played in 12 personnel this season, and when he did play in 11 personnel, he split time with Knox. Yet, the Bills offense was easier to defend because they were more balanced with Knox on the field in 11 than when Kincaid was the only tight end on the field.
Moving forward, the Bills will likely revert back to more 11 personnel, with Kincaid as the lone tight end due to a lack of depth at that position. In the meantime, Kincaid’s target share should get a boost, and fantasy managers should expect his snap percentage to explode to nearly 100%, with Quintin Morris as the only other tight end on the current roster. However, Morris missed Week 7 due to an ankle injury and did not practice Tuesday.
“It was great to see him get a lot of targets and a lot of catches. Everybody (saw) that in training camp,” wideout Trent Sherfield said. “He’s a guy that has really great hands, good run after the catch ability as well, too. And it was good to see the ball spreading around today. I know that was one of the big (points of) emphasis going into this week.”
SUMMARY
For those who don’t own one of the very few elite tight ends, Kincaid should be a priority waiver wire add this week. He will not be an every-snap player due to his unwillingness to block, but it’s clear that Allen trusts him, and the rapport between the two players is there.
Depending on your league and your needs, 15-25% of FAAB seems about right for Kincaid, who could truly produce at a mid-TE1 level for the remainder of the season. Kincaid checks in as a TE1 at TE10 on The Wolf’s Fantasy Rest of Season Rankings.
