The dog days of just MLB and WNBA games are over. Week 1 has arrived, and NFL football is here to save us. Not only is it time to see how your fantasy teams look, but it’s also time to bet on the games. There are 14 games throughout the day on Sunday. This means many, many bets could be made. Let’s look at the five bets I like the most.
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2023 RECORD: 0-0-0
PLAYER PROP: JAYLEN WADDLE LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 24.5 YARDS (-114, FANDUEL)
Following a bit of a letdown in Kansas City (scoring-wise), Miami and Los Angeles will likely be the shootout of the week. Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill have no issues with high-scoring affairs. In fact, the Dolphins thrive when pushing the ball downfield and creating big plays.
Tua and Waddle create the perfect duo. Tua loves to go deep, ranking third in air yards per attempt. He also completes these deep balls at a high rate. With a deep ball completion rate of 50 percent, Tua was the league’s best at connecting with receivers downfield. Waddle complements Tua incredibly well. After getting the ball in his hands, Waddle is deadly. Waddle ranked 2nd among WRs (min. 50 targets) in yards after the catch per reception. The combo of Tua and Waddle led to some massive plays in 2022. Waddle had a reception of at least 25 yards in 11 of 17 games last season.
In a game highlighted by offensive firepower, expect Waddle and Tua to connect for at least one big play.
SPREAD BET: TENNESSEE TITANS +3 (-115, FANDUEL)
I have one name for you… Mike Vrabel. Vrabel is a quality head coach who can bring the most out of his players to find wins. However, Vrabel’s best attribute is his ability to cover spreads, especially as an underdog. As a head coach, Vrabel is 23-14-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog. Vrabel is 22-9-1 ATS when he’s an underdog by at least three points. The man is quite simply a machine at covering spreads when he isn’t favored.
On the flip side, the Saint’s key pieces struggle to cover spreads. As a favorite, Saint’s QB Derek Carr is 17-29-1 ATS. Across his head coaching career, Saints’ coach Dennis Allen is 21-32 ATS.
Tennessee was decimated by injuries last season. With a healthy roster, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and good coaching, the Titans should keep it close on Sunday.
PICK ‘EM: JAMAAL WILLIAMS MORE THAN 15.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS
With Alvin Kamara on the shelf due to suspension and rookie Kendre Miller likely missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury, Jamaal Williams is in line to see a massive workload.
In 2022, Saints’ running backs averaged just under 20 carries per game. New Orleans also ran the ball at a 10% higher rate than other teams on first down and third and short.
In a game that should be close with the Titans, it’s highly unlikely that Williams will be taken out of the game due to an unfavorable game script. This matchup and roster situation should lead to carries for Williams throughout the game.
PICK ‘EM: AJ BROWN MORE THAN 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Let’s not sugarcoat it, AJ Brown is about to absolutely cook the New England secondary. New England runs man coverage at an incredibly high rate — the fifth highest in 2022. What does AJ Brown do? Annihilate man coverage.
I fully expect Brown and Jalen Hurts to pick up where they left off. The Brown and Hurts combo was deadly last season, regularly making DBs look foolish. Considering the Patriots will likely be playing into Brown’s strengths, expect him to have a big day.
PICK ‘EM: JOE MIXON OVER 0.5 RUSHING/RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS
The Battle of Ohio. This game has a history of being uninteresting and a battle of sub-.500 teams. But this is 2023, and The Battle of Ohio is undoubtedly the best game of the early slate.
This game features one of the league’s most potent offenses, the Cincinnati Bengals. This offense will end up in the red zone several times throughout the game. Outside of Ja’Marr Chase, the top option in the red zone will be Joe Mixon. Last season, Mixon ranked 3rd in carries inside the five-yard line. He has ample opportunities to punch the ball in at the goal lone. I expect this to be the same in 2023, and he may even have more red zone touches with Samaje Perine no longer in the picture.
