After a long offseason, the Chiefs and Lions finally kick off the 2023 NFL season on Thursday night in Kansas City. Last year’s champ will be crowned and start their title defense all on the same night. And, as always, we’ll be here trying to help you all make some money.
We’ll give you our favorite picks on the game lines, player props (Pick ‘Em), and one long shot we feel especially good about each week. Pick ‘Em lines are provided by Underdog Fantasy, who’s doing a crazy free square promotion for Week 1: Patrick Mahomes higher or lower than 0.5 total yards on Thursday Night Football.
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GAME LINE: UNDER 52.5
This total has gone as high as 55 this week, but it’s gradually declined since news of Travis Kelce‘s hyperextended knee on Tuesday. Kelce should be fine long-term, but his Thursday night status is in serious question. Without him, Kansas City relies on a receiver group of Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore to keep pace with last year’s No. 1 passing offense. Especially if Kelce is out, Kansas City might start slow after several pregame festivities.
Jared Goff and the Lions are the darlings of the NFL, hence their presence in this opening night game. They drafted Jahmyr Gibbs and signed David Montgomery to replace last year’s departed backfield and are getting a ton of buzz heading into the season. They’re also coached by Dan Campbell, who preaches effort on the defensive end and should have them ready to counter KC’s explosive offensive attack.
In a Week 1 game, sure to bring some jitters and come along with some distractions, I think this game stays relatively low-scoring and goes under the total.
PICK ‘EM: JAHMYR GIBBS MORE THAN 30.5 REC YDS
Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the most hyped rookies in the NFL since being drafted 12th overall in April. He has a unique combination of talents that has many talking about a potential 1,000-yard rushing and 500-yard receiving season — including himself. When asked about the possibility of achieving this feat reserved for fantasy goldmines like Christian McCaffrey, he said, “Most definitely, especially within this system.” The system Gibbs refers to is key here — with a relatively weak receiver group outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Gibbs will be a major piece in Detroit’s passing attack.
Given Gibbs’ dual-threat ability at Alabama last year, I think his role as a pass-catching back is clear immediately in Week 1, and he blows past both this number and his 3.5 reception total — two numbers that’ll definitely get a boost throughout the season.
PICK ‘EM: DAVID MONTGOMERY LOWER THAN 12.5 REC YDS
While Gibbs will be an integral cog in Detroit’s aerial game, I don’t think the same can be said for David Montgomery. The fifth-year back out of Iowa State is in his first year in Detroit and should be primarily used as a runner with Gibbs in the picture. Montgomery caught just 34 passes last year in Chicago, 10 fewer than Gibbs’ 44 at Alabama in four fewer games.
Montgomery will garner a decent snap share and get some touches in Detroit’s offense, but I anticipate minimal involvement through the air. I like going lower on this Pick ‘Em.
LONG SHOT: PATRICK MAHOMES ANYTIME TD SCORER (+300)
In case you live under a rock, Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl victory last year despite a severe ankle injury suffered during the playoffs. At times, it was unknown if he’d even last the entire playoff run. This injury hindered his mobility a bit, but he still managed to scramble for 44 yards in that game.
The ankle is healed now, and with Travis Kelce likely out, Mahomes will need to take matters into his own hand more often, particularly around the goal line. Mahomes doesn’t get enough credit as a runner in general, so his TD odds are usually pretty juicy, and I like this one on Thursday to get us off on the right foot in 2023.
