Fantasy Football Week 12 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy AJ Brown, Sell George Kittle - Roto Street Journal
Player Stock Ticker
For the Best Breaking Fantasy Football News, Bookmark our Fantasy Stock Watch now: rotostreetjournal.com/stockwatch    

Fantasy Football Week 12 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy AJ Brown, Sell George Kittle

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy low and sell high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFCARTGTAIR YDS
A.EKELER, LACRB102322.80.213.18.4-7.9
D.ADAMS, LVWR1021.622.7-1.10.311.2124.2
D.HOPKINS, ARIWR521.121.8-0.7011.6107.2
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR1021.621.8-0.20.210.5103
T.HILL, MIAWR1022.221.70.50.510.6125.1
J.CHASE, CINWR720.221.3-1.10.610.694.9
C.KUPP, LAWR922.421.11.3110.978.2
J.MIXON, CINRB1018.120.9-2.815.95.3-1.9
S.DIGGS, BUFWR1022.720.62.1010.3115.2
M.BROWN, ARIWR618.320.5-2.2010.7111.5
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB1018.520.2-1.721.44.13.6
T.KELCE, KCTE1022.319.82.50.29.467.4
C.MCCAFFREY, SFRB1020.219.50.713.66.63
J.JACOBS, LVRB1019.418.80.619.34.2-0.9
D.HENRY, TENRB1020.318.71.623.32.30.7
J.TAYLOR, INDRB81418.7-4.719.33.9-4.5
A.KAMARA, NORB916.318.3-2146.48.9
R.STEVENSON, NERB1016.418.3-1.915.154.8
D.JOHNSON, PITWR1010.118-7.90.68.685.9
C.LAMB, DALWR1016.417.8-1.40.69.393.6
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB1015.517.7-2.2145-4.6
M.PITTMAN, INDWR1013.917.4-3.509.259.7
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB410.517.3-6.8125.5-6
C.GODWIN, TBWR812.817.2-4.40.49.153
M.EVANS, TBWR914.917.2-2.308.4105.3
A.COOPER, CLEWR101616.7-0.708.197.8
C.OLAVE, NOWR1014.516.7-2.208.3121.6
D.SAMUEL, SFWR914.416.6-2.23.77.838
A.BROWN, PHIWR1016.216.5-0.308.186.5
C.SUTTON, DENWR1011.416.3-4.90.1895.4
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR915.616.3-0.718.752.6
D.METCALF, SEAWR1012.616.2-3.607.786.7
D.PIERCE, HOURB1013.816.2-2.417.83-1.2
M.ANDREWS, BALTE914.916.1-1.20.2882.3
D.COOK, MINRB1015.716-0.315.83.4-2.2
C.KIRK, JAXWR1016.115.90.20.38.272.6
M.THOMAS, NOWR31715.71.307.379
B.HALL, NYJRB716.415.70.711.74.621
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR311.515.3-3.80875
J.PALMER, LACWR912.615.2-2.60.17.661.4
N.HARRIS, PITRB1012.515-2.5153.55.4
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB1013.915-1.113.73.11.2
A.JONES, GBRB1115.714.90.813.44.5-3.3
A.GIBSON, WASRB1112.714.7-211.144.1
N.CHUBB, CLERB1018.814.74.117.72.2-1.8
A.LAZARD, GBWR913.414.6-1.207.393.9
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB1015.414.60.816.11.23.3
D.MOORE, CARWR1110.414.5-4.10.67.582.9
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB101214.3-2.311.340.7
J.CONNER, ARIRB812.314.3-212.44-1.4
J.WADDLE, MIAWR1017.514.33.20.27.484
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE910.914.3-3.407.464.2
B.COOKS, HOUWR910.214.2-40.17.369
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR1112.914.2-1.30.57.397.6
T.HOCKENSON, MINTE109.413.9-4.507.149
A.THIELEN, MINWR1010.813.8-306.768.7
J.MEYERS, NEWR81413.80.20.37.166.8
R.MOORE, ARIWR81113.8-2.80.8738.3
C.SAMUEL, WASWR1112.213.8-1.62.26.539
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR813.413.7-0.307.588.8
Z.ERTZ, ARITE1011.613.7-2.106.954.8
G.WILSON, NYJWR101113.6-2.60.37.157.1
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR1014.413.4107.179.3
Z.JONES, JAXWR910.813.4-2.60.37.254.3
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR913.113.4-0.307.159
D.SMITH, PHIWR1012.413.2-0.80760
T.HIGGINS, CINWR1013.913.20.707.173.4
B.AIYUK, SFWR1013.913.20.70.16.560.3
G.DAVIS, BUFWR913.4130.40698.3
T.POLLARD, DALRB1016.312.93.412.53.10.2
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR1010.212.7-2.50.16.172.1
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR710.512.7-2.20679.4
K.PITTS, ATLTE107.612.6-505.981.6
T.HIGBEE, LATE109.112.6-3.507.325.4
K.WALKER, SEARB914.312.51.813.92.7-5.6
M.SANDERS, PHIRB1012.812.30.516.11.5-1.9
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB811.912.1-0.215.81.1-1.6
J.JEUDY, DENWR910.312-1.70.16.175.4
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB1010.511.9-1.413.62.14.1
D.LONDON, ATLWR119.411.9-2.505.957.7
M.GORDON, DENRB108.711.8-3.19.33.22.3
M.HOLLINS, LVWR109.511.8-2.30.15.878.3
R.MOSTERT, MIARB1010.711.8-1.112.42.64.3
G.PICKENS, PITWR109.911.7-1.80.35.479.3
M.CARTER, NYJRB109.811.6-1.89.63.4-0.1
G.EVERETT, LACTE99.211.6-2.40.16.141.8
G.KITTLE, SFTE812.211.50.705.935.8
M.JONES, JAXWR97.611.5-3.905.676.3
T.BOYD, CINWR1012.411.4105.654.5
D.SWIFT, DETRB713.411.32.16.73.91.4
D.GOEDERT, PHITE912.611.11.505.930.7
R.GAGE, TBWR78.311.1-2.805.731.1
C.CLAYPOOL, CHIWR117.911.1-3.20.95.549.6
D.NJOKU, CLETE810.411-0.60.15.636.9
A.ROBINSON, LAWR108.511-2.505.250.2
A.DILLON, GBRB117.310.9-3.610.72.42.1
D.WALLER, LVTE57.910.9-304.854.6
N.COLLINS, HOUWR89.310.9-1.605.965.6
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB8710.8-3.82.856.3
D.MOONEY, CHIWR119.210.7-1.50.15.566.5
K.HUNT, CLERB109.610.7-1.18.92.6-1.2
R.DOUBS, GBWR98.810.6-1.80.15.655
G.DULCICH, DENTE59.110.5-1.405.265
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB712.310.41.9131.62.4
B.ROBINSON, WASRB77.610.4-2.815.90.6-2.1
J.WILSON, MIARB109.610.4-0.811.21.84
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR119.910.3-0.40.25.532.2
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE107.910.3-2.40.15.138.9
K.DRAKE, BALRB89.910.1-0.210.91.9-5.4
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE87.610-2.405.331.9
M.HARDMAN, KCWR811.7101.70.64.334.4
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE108.69.9-1.30.15.336.5
J.LANDRY, NOWR68.89.9-1.105.253.8
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR68.69.9-1.30.35.232
N.BROWN, DALWR97.89.8-204.951.6
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR107.99.8-1.90.14.760.7
E.BENJAMIN, HOURB108.69.7-1.173.3-3.9
H.HURST, CINTE108.59.7-1.205.125.5
C.DAVIS, NYJWR79.49.6-0.204.977
M.GALLUP, DALWR76.69.6-304.952.9
D.CHARK, DETWR45.79.6-3.904.889.3
A.PIERCE, INDWR107.69.6-20561.3
D.HARRIS, NERB89.49.5-0.19.921.1
T.BURKS, TENWR67.99.5-1.60.3552.3
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB109.89.30.57.42.31
R.WOODS, TENWR106.89.3-2.50541
G.EDWARDS, BALRB212.69.33.313.50.51
J.DOBBINS, BALRB48.69.2-0.691.50.8
J.DOTSON, WASWR69.59.10.40.34.261.2
K.ALLEN, LACWR38.79-0.304.751.3
R.COBB, GBWR78.19-0.904.647
E.MITCHELL, SFRB36.68.9-2.3110.7-1
K.OSBORN, MINWR106.38.9-2.60.24.741.3
I.SMITH, MINTE77.38.9-1.604.722.1
H.RENFROW, LVWR66.48.8-2.404.827.2
R.BATEMAN, BALWR68.98.80.104.762.3
J.JONES, TBWR58.58.7-0.20.64.262.2
J.ROBINSON, NYJRB108.68.7-0.110.51.30.6
J.MCKINNON, KCRB106.68.6-23.93.42.8
R.TONYAN, GBTE117.48.5-1.104.624.6
C.BRATE, TBTE64.48.5-4.10425.7
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
D.KNOX, BUFTE98.28.3-0.104.431.6
D.HENDERSON, LARB107.48.2-0.87.32.22.8
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR98.28.200.6422.7
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB108.18.2-0.111.21-1.6
J.JOHNSON, NOTE118.78.10.604.336.1
L.THOMAS, WASTE85.58.1-2.604.134.5
K.HERBERT, CHIRB1010.78.12.6110.7-1.4
F.MOREAU, LVTE86.38-1.704.427.4
R.WHITE, TBRB1068-26.12.50.7
A.GREEN, ARIWR94.17.9-3.803.839.8
R.PENNY, SEARB510.47.92.511.81-2.4
E.MOORE, NYJWR94.47.8-3.40.23.949.9
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR1067.8-1.80.14.333.2
D.CARTER, LACWR107.87.800.14.139.4
C.OTTON, TBTE96.77.7-103.919.9
K.RAYMOND, DETWR106.17.6-1.50.43.839.1
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB105.77.5-1.82.53.54.7
N.FANT, SEATE106.77.4-0.703.823.2
C.MOORE, HOUWR96.77.3-0.60.23.826.6
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR108.87.21.60.83.434
D.ROBINSON, BALWR105.97.2-1.303.837.1
C.AKERS, LARB83.97.1-3.29.80.84.9
M.GESICKI, MIATE107.570.503.531.4
C.WATSON, GBWR810.173.10.53.544.1
D.PARKER, NEWR96.36.9-0.603.354.3
C.KMET, CHITE1186.71.30.23.426.6
D.FOREMAN, CARRB1176.70.39.60.7-0.4
G.DORTCH, ARIWR1176.50.50.23.514.3
S.WATKINS, GBWR74.86.4-1.603.137.7
I.LIKELY, BALTE105.16.4-1.303.323.6
N.HINES, BUFRB105.56.4-0.91.934.8
S.PERINE, CINRB1086.31.73.72.63.8
C.EDMONDS, DENRB105.26.3-1.14.61.93.6
H.BRYANT, CLETE104.46-1.603.120.4
J.JENNINGS, SFWR94.46-1.603.327.2
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR105.36-0.703.128.9
D.JACKSON, INDRB105.15.9-0.84.22.1-1.3
R.ANDERSON, ARIWR113.55.9-2.403.142.1
M.CALLAWAY, NOWR103.85.8-20336.2
J.CROWDER, BUFWR435.8-2.803.330.3
H.HENRY, NETE105.25.7-0.502.923.2
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR116.65.70.90.22.832.5
K.PHILIPS, TENWR435.7-2.703.325
K.GRANSON, INDTE114.55.6-1.10.12.916.7
B.JORDAN, HOUTE51.85.6-3.803.223.6
A.HOOPER, TENTE105.65.6002.827.4
J.SMITH, NETE94.45.5-1.10.13.19.2
M.GASKIN, MIARB23.25.5-2.322.57
R.JAMES, NYGWR105.25.5-0.30.22.923.7
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
D.HILLIARD, TENRB97.65.42.22.12.33
S.SMITH, CARWR112.65.3-2.702.621.5
A.MATTISON, MINRB105.15.2-0.14.21.4-1.7
W.DISSLY, SEATE1075.21.802.811.4
A.DULIN, INDWR74.25.2-10.12.630.7
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB31.25.2-45.70.70
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR875.11.902.625.9
J.WARREN, PITRB104.95.1-0.23.91.8-0.6
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE77.15.120.12.67.9
K.TONEY, KCWR55.35.10.20.62.26
J.KELLEY, LACRB64.85-0.23.81.70
K.HAMLER, DENWR73.74.9-1.20.3252.4
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR105.54.90.602.538.1
P.DORSETT, HOUWR93.44.9-1.502.435.6
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB104.54.8-0.33.21.41.4
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR94.84.8002.732.7
J.COOK, BUFRB104.64.8-0.24.41.44.3
I.PACHECO, KCRB104.74.8-0.17.70.3-1.5
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB63.54.8-1.33.71.3-4
K.BOURNE, NEWR93.84.5-0.70.32.222.8
L.MURRAY, DENRB64.24.5-0.34.31.2-2.8
S.MICHEL, LACRB102.54.3-1.83.61.32.2
T.HILL, NOTE109.14.24.95.30.61.3
N.GRAY, KCTE104.44.20.20.12.213.9
J.HILL, BALRB83.94.2-0.34.91-1.8
M.BOONE, DENRB72.94.2-1.32.11.73.9
D.PETTIS, CHIWR114.14.2-0.10.21.920.5
K.WILLIAMS, LARB34.14.2-0.12.71.72.7
C.BEASLEY, TBWR22.94.1-1.202.56
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR104.640.60.11.822.1
D.SILLS, NYGWR82.74-1.302.116.6
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE52.43.9-1.502.25
J.AGNEW, JAXWR84.13.90.20.61.914.9
O.HOWARD, HOUTE103.33.9-0.601.921.2
S.MOORE, KCWR102.73.9-1.20220.8
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR104.33.80.50.71.87.1
T.TREMBLE, CARTE112.73.8-1.101.717.7
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR82.73.8-1.10.3227.5
D.BELL, CLEWR103.13.8-0.702.116.7
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB83.93.70.22.91.31
T.COLEMAN, SFRB45.53.71.83.30.86
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB102.53.6-1.1023.6
I.THOMAS, CARTE112.73.4-0.7025.6
M.BREIDA, NYGRB103.13.4-0.33.20.94.3
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE113.83.30.501.77.9
Z.GENTRY, PITTE102.43.3-0.901.73.9
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR103.23.3-0.101.726.7
J.WOODS, INDTE93.73.30.401.419.2
Z.MOSS, INDRB72.63.3-0.731.1-0.7
E.SAUBERT, DENTE102.73.2-0.501.716
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR61.53.2-1.701.716.7
B.POWELL, LAWR102.23.2-10.91.44.9
A.TRAUTMAN, NOTE93.53.10.401.79.9
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR31.43.1-1.701.723.3
J.WINFREE, GBWR30.93-2.101.317.3
J.BATES, WASTE101.93-1.101.88
C.OKONKWO, TENTE103.130.10.11.515.6
J.FERGUSON, DALTE103.130.101.47.2
J.JACKSON, DETRB102.73-0.32.70.72.8
B.SCOTT, PHIRB82.32.9-0.63.60.4-0.9
C.PARKINSON, SEATE103.62.90.701.611
J.MUNDT, MINTE102.92.9001.62.4
K.HODGE, ATLWR113.62.90.701.518
J.GUYTON, LACWR32.82.8001.338.3
J.FORTSON, KCTE92.72.70017.9
T.HOMER, SEARB63.22.70.51.21.3-0.5
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE102.42.7-0.301.47.1
C.HUBBARD, CARRB92.92.60.32.70.80.3
C.SIMS, WASWR111.22.6-1.401.318.4
T.MCKITTY, LACTE101.22.6-1.401.34.8
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR101.42.5-1.10.21.35.4
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR102.92.50.40.11.36.7
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR60.82.5-1.701.216.5
D.BROWN, WASWR93.22.40.801.227.8
J.PROCHE, BALWR81.42.4-101.39.3
T.HUDSON, NYGTE102.12.4-0.301.410
J.OLIVER, BALTE101.82.3-0.501.13.2
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR72.22.3-0.100.96.6
D.SMYTHE, MIATE91.92.2-0.30.213
J.HASTY, JAXRB102.52.20.31.31-3.7
G.SWAIM, TENTE101.92.1-0.201.13.1
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR61.72.1-0.401.215
B.BOLDEN, LVRB92.72.10.60.913.3
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB112.32.10.21.30.8-2
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR51.32.1-0.801.211
J.DEGUARA, GBTE1122001.13.5
T.ATWELL, LAWR63.421.40.20.833.3
C.WILSON, MIAWR91.62-0.40.11.111.3
B.WRIGHT, DETTE102.620.6013
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE922001.23.7
T.EBNER, CHIRB110.62-1.42.10.40.7
D.OGUNBOWALE, HOURB101.62-0.40.111.5
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR51.51.9-0.40116.8
M.STRACHAN, INDWR911.8-0.800.910.6
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB100.61.8-1.21.20.73.5
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
J.STOLL, PHITE101.11.8-0.700.84.7
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE101.81.60.200.84.3
T.WALLACE, BALWR70.71.6-0.900.912.4
A.BECK, DENTE81.11.6-0.50.10.86
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR90.71.5-0.80.20.89.2
D.DALLAS, SEARB101.41.5-0.11.30.50.2
M.DAVIS, BALRB80.51.5-110.3-0.9
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE51.41.5-0.100.86.6
S.FEHOKO, DALWR51.11.5-0.400.810.2
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE101.31.5-0.200.82.1
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR70.61.4-0.800.75.6
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE90.61.4-0.800.75.2
Q.CEPHUS, DETWR40.91.3-0.400.83.5
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE41.41.30.100.83.8
G.RICCI, CARTE101.41.30.100.82.7
J.REAGOR, MINWR101.41.30.10.10.62.3
I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHIWR60.11.3-1.20.20.74.7
C.MANHERTZ, JAXTE100.71.2-0.500.60.7
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE100.71.2-0.500.64.2
D.MILNE, WASWR111.41.20.200.63.5
R.RODGERS, LACTE80.21.2-100.40.4
J.SMITH, NYJWR1011.1-0.100.66
T.KROFT, SFTE50.71.1-0.400.67.8
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR60.71.1-0.400.74.5
P.HESSE, ATLTE110.91-0.100.54
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR100.81-0.200.57.8
A.ROGERS, WASTE101.410.40.10.61.3
M.WILCOX, CINTE101.110.100.61.3
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR100.51-0.50.30.55.6
H.HASKINS, TENRB100.81-0.21.10.3-1.1
S.ZYLSTRA, DETTE61.210.200.33.2
R.DWELLEY, SFTE1020.91.100.56.9
T.DAVIS, GBTE110.60.9-0.300.51.5
G.OLSZEWSKI, PITWR90.80.9-0.10.20.43.7
K.KIEFT, TBTE100.90.9000.54
J.NAILOR, MINWR80.60.9-0.300.54
M.LEWIS, GBTE1110.80.200.31.4
D.FELTON, CLERB50.20.8-0.60.20.41.8
D.HARTY, NOWR40.80.8000.51.3
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
T.TAYLOR, CINWR100.80.800.30.40.4
B.HOPKINS, LATE70.30.8-0.500.42.6
J.HORSTED, LVTE100.50.7-0.200.42.6
C.EVANS, CINRB90.60.6000.35.8
Z.WHITE, LVRB90.20.6-0.41.100
J.TONGES, CHITE300.6-0.600.34.3
T.SWEENEY, BUFTE30.60.50.100.3-0.3
S.ANDERSON, ARITE110.10.5-0.400.32.2
K.TURPIN, DALWR100.40.5-0.10.30.21.3
T.JONES, JAXWR100.50.5000.30.4
S.MORGAN, CINWR800.5-0.500.10
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB100.80.40.40.400
P.HART, SEAWR70.40.4000.11
J.DARDEN, TBWR100.50.40.10.10.21
M.BOYKIN, PITWR100.20.4-0.200.24.6
J.WILLIAMS, WASRB70.80.40.40.900
C.WOERNER, SFTE1000.4-0.400.24.3
K.NWANGWU, MINRB100.20.4-0.20.40.10.3
M.WILLIAMS, ARITE50.30.3000.20.6
L.FARRELL, JAXTE100.50.30.200.20
J.MASON, SFRB90.20.3-0.10.600
D.TURNER, LVWR60.30.300.500

WEEK 12 BUY LOW

AJ BROWN

AJ Brown is coming off back-to-back poor weeks, which may have some managers slightly worried.

His one reception for seven yards in Week 10 seems like negative variance more than anything as the Eagles only held the ball for 19:36 and ran only 46 total plays. In Week 11, he returned back to his typical usage, seeing seven targets for 60 yards. Those numbers don’t seem particularly impressive, but Brown still had a 28% target share on a season-low 25 pass attempts from Jalen Hurts.

Brown has a 27.4% target share on the season and still appears to be playing exactly the same role as when he was smashing earlier in the season. When healthy, he has historically been one of the most efficient receivers on a per-target basis and is always a threat to score long touchdowns. I would generally expect him to exceed his XFP due to his big play ability, but he is currently slightly underperforming. With easy matchups against the Green Bay and Tennessee secondaries coming up in the next two weeks, look for Brown to return to his dominant self.

Brown is firmly behind the top tier of receivers (Hill, Jefferson, Diggs, Adams), but I would still put him at the top of the next tier despite his recent struggles. If you can get a discount, now is a great time to buy.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS

WEEK 12 SELL HIGH

GEORGE KITTLE

George Kittle is still an extremely talented player, but his usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been frustrating. Since Christian McCaffrey took over the 49ers backfield in Week 8, Kittle has averaged a dismal 7.8 expected fantasy points per game on 4.3 targets per game.

Thanks to a two-touchdown effort on Monday Night Football, Kittle has now scored 12.9, 3.1, and 24.4 points over the same three-game stretch, which is good for 13.5 PPG. In the current tight end landscape, 13.5 PPG would be good for the TE3 overall, so that production combined with Kittle’s talent and name value should give him significant trade value this week.

The unfortunate reality is that Kittle won’t be able to sustain anything close to his recent production without a significant increase in targets, which doesn’t seem likely as long as his teammates stay healthy. He has been the fourth option in the offense since Week 8 as McCaffrey (22 targets), Aiyuk (17), and Deebo (15) have all commanded more targets than Kittle (13). Even last week, he was still only third on the team with six targets despite the two scores. Take advantage of the opportunity to sell Kittle’s unsustainable production.

CHRISTIAN WATSON

Christian Watson has put up an insane five total touchdowns over the past two weeks, leading to 26.9 fantasy points per game after essentially doing nothing for the first nine weeks.

Anyone could tell you that this level of production from Watson is unsustainable, but he has outproduced his expected numbers to a staggering degree. Watson averaged 14.8 expected points in the past two games, so he outscored his expected points by 12.1 points per game. He had the most fantasy points over expected of any player in Week 10 and was fifth among all receivers in Week 11 in the same metric.

Even the expected numbers might not be fully sustainable. Averaging 14.8 XFP is fine and would be just ahead of teammate Allen Lazard for WR25, but Watson’s 14 total targets over the past two games are fewer than you would expect based on his XFP. Targets near the end zone are worth more XFP, and Watson has seen five total red zone targets in the past two weeks. Red zone targets are great, and we want players to get as many as possible, but 2.5 red zone targets per week for Watson is not sustainable. Justin Jefferson leads all receivers with 2.0 per game.

Watson would have to increase his target volume to make up for the incoming reduction in red zone targets just to maintain his 14.8 XFP per game. While that’s possible, it’s not something I want to bet on if I can get a decent return. Lazard out-targeted Watson 11 to 6 in Week 11, so Watson may not even lead the team in targets the rest of the way.

I would try to add something to Watson to get to a player like Keenan Allen. He averaged 18.3 XFP last season, and despite his health, should be ranked higher than WR31 on the FantasyPros ROS ECR.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH

  • Nick Chubb – Try to package him with something for another elite player. Consider reaching out to the Saquon Barkley owner after a bad game. Chubb and Barkley are averaging roughly the same PPG, but Barkley’s workload is much better.
  • Tony Pollard – I was slightly too early, but now you should be able to get more for him.
  • Brandon Aiyuk – Two touchdown week on low volume makes him an even more attractive sell today.
  • Jaylen Waddle

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

One Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.