Fantasy Football Week 10 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Mike Evans, Sell Curtis Samuel

Win trades with our xFP model.

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy low and sell high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFCARTGTAIR YDS
A.EKELER, LACRB824.923.21.713.18.8-8.5
C.KUPP, LAWR824.822.52.31.111.685.6
T.HILL, MIAWR92322.40.60.611.1130.1
J.MIXON, CINRB919.122.2-3.116.95.6-3.8
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR821.721.9-0.20.310.594.1
D.ADAMS, LVWR819.521.5-20.410.6120.4
J.CHASE, CINWR720.221.3-1.10.610.694.9
S.DIGGS, BUFWR823.520.82.7010.3121.1
T.KELCE, KCTE820.920.80.10.39.671.1
D.HOPKINS, ARIWR322.620.71.9010.7107.3
M.BROWN, ARIWR618.320.5-2.2010.7111.5
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB819.620.3-0.720.44.43.5
A.KAMARA, NORB71819.9-1.91579.9
D.JOHNSON, PITWR810.619.6-90.69.595.5
C.MCCAFFREY, SFRB820.819.41.414.36.6-0.1
D.HENRY, TENRB821.119.1223.32.30.9
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB91618.3-2.3145.4-4.6
R.STEVENSON, NERB916.618.3-1.714.84.96
M.EVANS, TBWR815.518-2.508.8111
C.OLAVE, NOWR814.618-3.409130.6
M.PITTMAN, INDWR814.117.9-3.809.559.8
J.TAYLOR, INDRB611.917.7-5.8184.2-2.7
A.BROWN, PHIWR818.917.51.408.893.6
C.GODWIN, TBWR711.817.4-5.60.49.351.4
C.LAMB, DALWR814.617.4-2.80.69.195.3
J.JACOBS, LVRB819.117.31.818.13.8-3.9
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB410.517.3-6.8125.5-6
A.COOPER, CLEWR815.316.9-1.608.398.3
D.SAMUEL, SFWR714.416.8-2.43.77.940.9
D.PIERCE, HOURB815.216.8-1.618.93-0.1
D.COOK, MINRB815.716.6-0.916.63.5-2.6
M.ANDREWS, BALTE815.216.3-1.10.3885.1
C.SUTTON, DENWR81116.1-5.10.17.894.1
D.METCALF, SEAWR912.616.1-3.507.685.7
M.THOMAS, NOWR31715.71.307.379
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR714.815.7-0.90.78.453.3
B.HALL, NYJRB716.415.70.711.74.621
D.MOORE, CARWR911.315.6-4.30.87.992
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB914.315.5-1.2143.12.9
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR714.915.4-0.508.499.3
N.CHUBB, CLERB820.415.35.1191.9-2.1
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR311.515.3-3.80875
C.SAMUEL, WASWR913.215.1-1.927.343.1
Z.ERTZ, ARITE912.615.1-2.507.660
C.KIRK, JAXWR914.415.1-0.70.37.869.4
A.THIELEN, MINWR811.715-3.307.173.1
A.LAZARD, GBWR714.714.9-0.207.396.1
J.WADDLE, MIAWR918.214.93.30.27.786.1
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB814.714.70161.54.1
B.COOKS, HOUWR710.514.6-4.107.670.3
J.PALMER, LACWR710.714.6-3.90.17.148.1
A.JONES, GBRB91514.40.612.14.4-1.9
G.WILSON, NYJWR911.814.4-2.60.27.660.2
A.GIBSON, WASRB912.414.3-1.9104.25.2
J.MEYERS, NEWR714.714.20.50.37.368.7
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB810.814.1-3.310.14.50.8
N.HARRIS, PITRB810.914.1-3.213.63.50.5
R.MOORE, ARIWR611.714.1-2.40.87.232.7
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR81414.1-0.107.560.6
M.JONES, JAXWR79.213.9-4.706.787.6
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR914.513.90.607.382.2
B.AIYUK, SFWR813.913.80.10.16.862.4
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR912.413.4-10.46.986.7
J.CONNER, ARIRB610.313.3-310.541.5
J.JEUDY, DENWR811.613.2-1.60.16.879.8
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE710.713.1-2.406.956.3
M.SANDERS, PHIRB814.6131.616.81.6-1.1
G.KITTLE, SFTE611.712.9-1.206.537.2
Z.JONES, JAXWR810.312.9-2.60.46.950.4
M.HOLLINS, LVWR711.412.8-1.406.181.9
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR710.512.7-2.20679.4
G.EVERETT, LACTE89.812.6-2.80.16.645.4
D.SMITH, PHIWR81212.5-0.506.654.3
K.PITTS, ATLTE87.912.4-4.505.881.1
T.HIGBEE, LATE88.412.4-407.122.4
C.CLAYPOOL, CHIWR99.112.4-3.31.16.257.7
T.HOCKENSON, DETTE712.212.2006.148.4
D.CHARK, DETWR37.612.2-4.606109.3
D.LONDON, ATLWR99.112.2-3.106.261.4
K.HUNT, CLERB810.712.1-1.49.62.90
T.HIGGINS, CINWR912.812.10.706.465.4
M.CARTER, NYJRB910.612.1-1.59.83.60.8
J.DOTSON, WASWR413.112.110.35.582.5
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB515.4123.415.21.64.4
G.DAVIS, BUFWR712.4120.405.492.6
R.MOSTERT, MIARB99.812-2.212.92.44
A.DILLON, GBRB97.911.9-4112.82.4
D.GOEDERT, PHITE81311.81.206.333.3
D.NJOKU, CLETE711.311.8-0.50.1638.7
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE810.311.8-1.50.16.343.3
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB711.111.7-0.615.91.1-2.1
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR88.711.4-2.70.15.862.8
D.MOONEY, CHIWR98.811.3-2.50.15.870.6
T.BOYD, CINWR913.111.31.805.452.9
M.GORDON, DENRB8811.2-3.29.62.61.5
A.ROBINSON, LAWR87.711.2-3.505.147.1
G.PICKENS, PITWR88.211.2-30.15.579.5
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB812.211.11.192.61.1
D.SWIFT, DETRB514.611.13.57.24.22.4
N.BROWN, DALWR7911.1-2.105.657
R.GAGE, TBWR78.311.1-2.805.731.1
D.WALLER, LVTE57.910.9-304.854.6
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB89.810.8-113.52-0.6
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB8710.8-3.82.856.3
L.THOMAS, WASTE47.410.8-3.405.852.8
E.BENJAMIN, ARIRB99.610.7-1.17.83.7-4.3
T.POLLARD, DALRB813.110.62.510.62.40.4
R.DOUBS, GBWR98.810.6-1.80.15.655
K.WALKER, SEARB912.910.52.412.81.8-3.7
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE98.310.4-2.10.15.239.9
J.ROBINSON, NYJRB810.610.40.212.31.60.8
H.HURST, CINTE98.910.2-1.305.325.2
M.HARDMAN, KCWR811.7101.70.64.334.4
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR87.69.9-2.30.14.959.4
D.HARRIS, NERB79.19.8-0.710.120.1
A.PIERCE, INDWR88.89.8-10561
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR98.59.7-1.20.2529.7
J.LANDRY, NOWR48.59.7-1.205.356.5
C.DAVIS, NYJWR79.49.6-0.204.977
F.MOREAU, LVTE56.59.6-3.105.633.2
C.BRATE, TBTE54.99.5-4.604.429
K.DRAKE, BALRB710.39.50.810.91.6-4.4
D.HENDERSON, LARB87.89.4-1.68.12.63.3
B.ROBINSON, WASRB56.59.4-2.9140.8-3
J.WILSON, MIARB98.29.4-1.210.61.44.3
R.TONYAN, GBTE98.49.3-0.905.126.9
G.EDWARDS, BALRB212.69.33.313.50.51
M.GALLUP, DALWR56.39.2-2.904.652
N.COLLINS, HOUWR68.19.2-1.10568.5
J.DOBBINS, BALRB48.69.2-0.691.50.8
E.MOORE, NYJWR75.19-3.90.34.458.4
K.OSBORN, MINWR77.38.9-1.60.14.740.6
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB86.58.9-2.434.15.9
I.SMITH, MINTE77.38.9-1.604.722.1
H.RENFROW, LVWR66.48.8-2.404.827.2
R.BATEMAN, BALWR68.98.80.104.762.3
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR79.18.70.40.64.325.7
R.COBB, GBWR67.38.7-1.404.346.3
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE66.48.6-2.204.828.2
J.JONES, TBWR47.18.6-1.50.8462
J.MCKINNON, KCRB86.68.5-1.943.10.8
K.HERBERT, CHIRB911.28.42.8110.8-1.6
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
R.WOODS, TENWR86.58.4-1.904.537.8
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB88.78.40.311.90.8-1
K.RAYMOND, DETWR76.58.3-1.80.4444.6
D.CARTER, LACWR878.2-1.20.14.340.9
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR47.28-0.80419.3
C.OTTON, TBTE86.78-1.30418.6
R.PENNY, SEARB510.47.92.511.81-2.4
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR99.67.81.80.83.737.9
J.JOHNSON, NOTE97.47.6-0.20430.1
N.FANT, SEATE96.77.5-0.803.821.4
T.BURKS, TENWR467.5-1.50.5448.8
D.KNOX, BUFTE77.27.4-0.203.926.6
C.AKERS, LARB63.97.4-3.59.50.85.5
R.WHITE, TBRB95.57.4-1.94.32.80.8
A.DULIN, INDWR55.87.3-1.50.23.643
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR86.97.3-0.40.1428.5
D.PARKER, NEWR86.67.3-0.703.558.8
C.EDMONDS, MIARB86.27.3-1.15.32.15.1
A.GREEN, ARIWR72.57.2-4.703.336.6
R.ANDERSON, ARIWR94.27.2-303.851.4
S.WATKINS, GBWR55.27.1-1.903.436
M.GESICKI, MIATE97.86.90.903.631.9
I.LIKELY, BALTE95.56.5-103.324.6
M.CALLAWAY, NOWR946.3-2.303.239.8
J.JENNINGS, SFWR74.66.2-1.603.423.7
D.ROBINSON, BALWR94.16.2-2.103.231.4
H.HENRY, NETE95.46.1-0.703.125.3
D.HILLIARD, TENRB78.36.12.22.42.63.3
C.MOORE, HOUWR76.260.20.1317.4
G.DORTCH, ARIWR96.460.40.23.214.8
R.JAMES, NYGWR84.76-1.30.33.326.4
C.KMET, CHITE96.45.90.50.22.920
J.CROWDER, BUFWR435.8-2.803.330.3
D.JACKSON, INDRB95.25.8-0.64.61.9-0.3
K.GRANSON, INDTE94.25.7-1.50.1315.6
K.PHILIPS, TENWR435.7-2.703.325
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR97.25.61.60.12.828.7
B.JORDAN, HOUTE51.85.6-3.803.223.6
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR945.6-1.602.926.6
M.GASKIN, MIARB23.25.5-2.322.57
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR75.75.50.20337.3
S.PERINE, CINRB95.55.502.82.44.6
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
K.ALLEN, LACWR26.95.41.50328.5
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB85.35.4-0.13.61.51.4
D.FOREMAN, CARRB96.25.40.86.90.7-1
A.MATTISON, MINRB85.85.30.54.61.5-0.9
J.SMITH, NETE83.95.3-1.4039.5
S.SMITH, CARWR92.45.3-2.902.622.4
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR76.35.3102.724.1
S.MICHEL, LACRB83.15.3-2.24.31.62.8
W.DISSLY, SEATE97.25.2202.911.6
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB31.25.2-45.70.70
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE77.15.120.12.67.9
J.KELLEY, LACRB64.85-0.23.81.70
H.BRYANT, CLETE83.24.9-1.702.619
K.HAMLER, DENWR73.74.9-1.20.3252.4
P.DORSETT, HOUWR73.84.9-1.102.433.7
D.PETTIS, CHIWR94.74.9-0.20.12.224.1
J.WARREN, PITRB84.54.9-0.43.81.8-1.9
K.BOURNE, NEWR844.8-0.80.42.425.1
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB63.54.8-1.33.71.3-4
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR85.44.50.90.92.19.4
K.TONEY, KCWR32.54.5-20.31.7-1.7
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR73.14.4-1.30.32.331.4
J.COOK, BUFRB84.44.403.51.55.5
C.WATSON, GBWR64.54.40.10.52.314.8
T.HILL, NOTE810.44.36.15.10.61
N.GRAY, KCTE83.84.2-0.40.12.113.5
M.BOONE, DENRB72.94.2-1.32.11.73.9
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB74.44.20.23.31.41.1
J.AGNEW, JAXWR654.10.90.81.819
A.HOOPER, TENTE83.44.1-0.702.121
I.PACHECO, KCRB83.84.1-0.35.80.4-1.9
C.BEASLEY, TBWR22.94.1-1.202.56
T.TREMBLE, CARTE93.34-0.70219.7
J.BATES, WASTE72.84-1.202.410.4
D.SILLS, NYGWR82.74-1.302.116.6
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE52.43.9-1.502.25
J.MUNDT, MINTE73.83.9-0.102.12.4
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE94.43.80.6029.4
O.HOWARD, HOUTE83.93.80.101.923.4
T.COLEMAN, SFRB45.53.71.83.30.86
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR82.63.6-101.934.8
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR83.13.6-0.50.11.516.9
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR83.53.6-0.101.930.8
I.THOMAS, CARTE92.73.5-0.8026.1
B.BOLDEN, LVRB54.53.511.61.65.2
D.BROWN, WASWR64.43.4101.739.2
E.SAUBERT, DENTE82.73.4-0.701.819.8
J.HILL, BALRB73.53.40.14.60.70.1
J.FERGUSON, DALTE83.53.40.101.58.6
T.HOMER, SEARB53.93.30.61.41.6-0.6
M.BREIDA, NYGRB82.33.3-12.914.5
S.MOORE, KCWR81.83.3-1.501.617
J.WOODS, INDTE93.73.30.401.419.2
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR31.43.1-1.701.723.3
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB72.13.1-101.74.1
C.SIMS, WASWR81.43-1.601.521.4
E.MITCHELL, SFRB14.131.1600
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR41.13-1.901.513.5
B.POWELL, LAWR82.23-0.80.91.42
J.WINFREE, GBWR30.93-2.101.317.3
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE82.93-0.101.58.5
K.HODGE, ATLWR92.92.9001.616.6
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR91.52.8-1.30.21.46
J.GUYTON, LACWR32.82.8001.338.3
Z.GENTRY, PITTE82.72.8-0.101.61.5
B.SCOTT, PHIRB62.42.8-0.44.20.20.3
C.OKONKWO, TENTE82.72.8-0.10.11.410.8
G.SWAIM, TENTE72.52.6-0.101.34.9
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR52.12.6-0.501.418
J.FORTSON, KCTE72.42.6-0.200.94.4
C.PARKINSON, SEATE93.82.61.201.49
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE72.62.6001.64.7
A.TRAUTMAN, NOTE73.32.50.801.39.7
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR83.22.50.70.11.37.1
D.BELL, CLEWR82.42.5-0.101.413.3
J.OLIVER, BALTE91.92.4-0.501.13.4
J.DEGUARA, GBTE92.42.4001.34.3
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB92.62.40.21.11-2.4
T.HUDSON, NYGTE822.4-0.401.410.8
D.SMYTHE, MIATE82.12.3-0.20.11.13.4
J.PROCHE, BALWR71.62.3-0.701.110.4
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR72.22.3-0.100.96.6
J.HASTY, JAXRB82.92.30.61.51-3.6
C.WILSON, MIAWR81.62.1-0.50.11.111.9
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR51.32.1-0.801.211
C.HUBBARD, CARRB72.820.82.10.6-0.3
M.STRACHAN, INDWR81.12-0.90111.9
T.MCKITTY, LACTE712-1012.3
J.JACKSON, DETRB71.92-0.120.43.3
T.WALLACE, BALWR60.91.9-10114.5
T.ATWELL, LAWR51.51.9-0.40.20.830.8
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR31.81.9-0.10119.3
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE70.81.8-100.96.7
T.KROFT, SFTE31.21.8-0.60113
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR511.8-0.800.86.2
T.EBNER, CHIRB90.61.8-1.21.90.30.7
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR70.71.7-10.30.911.7
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB80.71.7-110.81.1
B.WRIGHT, DETTE72.11.70.4013.3
D.OGUNBOWALE, HOURB81.51.7-0.20.111.8
D.DALLAS, SEARB91.61.601.40.60.2
A.BECK, DENTE81.11.6-0.50.10.86
D.MILNE, WASWR821.60.400.94.8
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR60.81.6-0.800.86.5
J.REAGOR, MINWR71.71.60.10.10.71.3
J.STOLL, PHITE80.91.6-0.700.83.9
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE82.11.50.600.94.8
M.DAVIS, BALRB70.51.5-11.10.1-0.6
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE51.41.5-0.100.86.6
S.FEHOKO, DALWR51.11.5-0.400.810.2
C.MANHERTZ, JAXTE80.91.4-0.500.80.9
J.SMITH, NYJWR81.21.3-0.100.87.5
Q.CEPHUS, DETWR40.91.3-0.400.83.5
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE80.81.3-0.500.64.6
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE41.41.30.100.83.8
R.RODGERS, LACTE601.3-1.300.30.3
A.ROGERS, WASTE81.71.30.40.10.81.6
G.RICCI, CARTE91.41.30.100.83
H.HASKINS, TENRB811.3-0.31.40.4-1.4
I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHIWR60.11.3-1.20.20.74.7
S.ZYLSTRA, DETTE32.41.31.100.30.3
P.HESSE, ATLTE91.11.2-0.100.74.9
R.DWELLEY, SFTE82.41.21.200.68.6
A.RODGERS, GBWR90.61.2-0.60.300
T.DAVIS, GBTE80.81.2-0.400.82.1
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR81.11.2-0.100.69.8
M.WILCOX, CINTE91.21.10.100.71.4
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR60.71.1-0.400.74.5
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR80.61-0.40.40.52.1
K.KIEFT, TBTE911000.64.4
J.HORSTED, LVTE70.71-0.300.63.7
M.LEWIS, GBTE91.10.80.300.21.8
D.FELTON, CLERB50.20.8-0.60.20.41.8
D.HARTY, NOWR40.80.8000.51.3
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
Z.WHITE, LVRB60.30.7-0.41.300
T.JONES, JAXWR70.70.7000.40.6
T.TAYLOR, CINWR90.70.700.30.30.1
C.EVANS, CINRB90.60.6000.35.8
J.TONGES, CHITE300.6-0.600.34.3
J.WILLIAMS, WASRB51.10.60.51.200
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE80.70.60.100.41.5
C.WOERNER, SFTE700.6-0.600.36.1
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB810.50.50.500
L.FARRELL, JAXTE70.70.50.200.30
T.SWEENEY, BUFTE30.60.50.100.3-0.3
M.BOYKIN, PITWR80.30.5-0.200.35.8
S.MORGAN, CINWR700.5-0.500.10
D.TURNER, LVWR30.70.50.2100
J.DARDEN, TBWR90.50.40.10.10.21.1
K.TURPIN, DALWR80.20.4-0.20.40.11.1
J.NAILOR, MINWR50.50.40.100.22.6
P.HART, SEAWR60.40.30.100.21.2
B.HOPKINS, LATE500.3-0.300.20.4
S.ANDERSON, ARITE90.10.2-0.100.10.2
G.OLSZEWSKI, PITWR700.1-0.10.300
J.MASON, SFRB60.10.100.200

WEEK 10 BUY LOW

MIKE EVANS

Mike Evans has been a decent fantasy performer this season, checking in as the WR12 by points per game, but he hasn’t really been a true difference-maker. However, he has quietly seen elite target volume recently. His 8.8 targets per game on the season are already solid, but he has 37 total targets over the past three weeks (12.3 average). For reference, Cooper Kupp leads the NFL with 11.6 targets per game on the season.

Evans probably won’t fully sustain the insane target volume over the past three games — that would be a record-breaking 210-target pace over 17 games. Over the past three games, Tom Brady has averaged 50.3 attempts, which isn’t sustainable over the whole season. However, Brady currently leads the NFL with 44.2 pass attempts per game and should remain among the league leaders in pass attempts.

Other than teammate Chris Godwin, who I also like as a buy, Brady doesn’t have any good options to throw to other than Evans. Evans has a 24.5% target share through this three-game stretch, which should be sustainable given the situation. He has handled up to a 31% target share in previous years, so we shouldn’t worry about Evans being able to handle the load.

Brady’s 2.5% touchdown rate is by far the lowest of his career and should be primed for some positive regression down the stretch. Evans hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last five games, and Godwin hasn’t scored all season. They are too talented and the Bucs throw the ball too often for that to continue much longer.

Brady still ranks as PFF’s QB12 and four of five starters on the offensive line rank average or better at their positions. I believe they still have enough talent to put together a competent offense down the stretch of the season. As a bonus, the Bucs face the Bengals at home, the Cardinals on the road, and the Panthers at home in the fantasy playoffs. The last two games are favorable matchups, and all three games should be free from winter weather.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS

WEEK 10 SELL HIGH

CURTIS SAMUEL

On the surface, Samuel’s season-long XFP numbers might suggest that he is a decent buy, but recent trends tell a different story.

As you can see in the above chart Samuel’s XFP (red bars) has been on a downward trend since the start of the season, He has only topped 15 XFP once since Week 3, and you were likely disappointed if you started him between Weeks 3 and 8.

Taylor Heinicke took over the starting job in Week 7. Since then, teammate Terry McLaurin leads Samuel 14.9 to 11.2 in XFP average, 15.2 to 13.6 in PPG, and 25 to 16 in total targets. McLaurin also has a much better production history than Samuel. He has posted back-to-back 25% target share years while Samuel’s career-high target share is 20%. McLaurin looks like the clear top option in the offense.

Thankfully, Samuel scored a touchdown in Week 9 and put up 17.1 fantasy points on just four targets, so you might have a small sell window if you have any league-mates who like to chase points. He likely doesn’t have a ton of trade value, but especially in deeper leagues, I would go to a team struggling for depth and try to include him in a 2-for-1 trade to get a slight upgrade somewhere on your roster.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH

  • Nick Chubb – (only for another elite player, but I would still move him in full-PPR if I could tier up to CMC, Ekeler, Kamara, Saquon, or Henry)
  • Tony Pollard – May not be possible to sell if Zeke is back this week
  • Brandon Aiyuk
Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn