Fantasy Football Week 9 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Davante Adams, Sell Tony Pollard - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Week 9 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Davante Adams, Sell Tony Pollard

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy low and sell high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFCARTGTAIR YDS
D.HOPKINS, ARIWR227.126.80.3013.5146.5
C.KUPP, LAWR724.523.31.20.91288.7
T.HILL, MIAWR822.522.7-0.20.611.5132.4
A.EKELER, LACRB72522.62.412.98.7-7.3
J.MIXON, CINRB814.621.5-6.916.35.6-5.5
A.KAMARA, NORB619.521.3-1.8167.59.8
J.CHASE, CINWR720.221.3-1.10.610.694.9
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR721.220.90.30.110.182.3
S.DIGGS, BUFWR724.820.84010.3111.7
M.BROWN, ARIWR618.320.5-2.2010.7111.5
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB819.620.3-0.720.44.43.5
D.ADAMS, LVWR71720.2-3.20.49.7109.9
D.HENRY, TENRB720.819.61.2242.61
D.JOHNSON, PITWR810.619.6-90.69.595.5
C.MCCAFFREY, SFRB820.819.41.414.36.6-0.1
T.KELCE, KCTE72118.82.20.38.665.4
M.PITTMAN, INDWR715.418.7-3.301061.4
A.BROWN, PHIWR719.318.50.809.198.6
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB816.618.2-1.614.45.3-6.5
C.OLAVE, NOWR714.818.2-3.409137.1
J.JACOBS, LVRB720.117.92.218.13.9-3.7
J.TAYLOR, INDRB611.917.7-5.8184.2-2.7
C.LAMB, DALWR814.617.4-2.80.69.195.3
M.EVANS, TBWR716.417.4-108.4116.4
R.STEVENSON, NERB816.717.4-0.714.64.63
C.GODWIN, TBWR61217.3-5.30.39.252.8
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB410.517.3-6.8125.5-6
D.PIERCE, HOURB715.417.1-1.717.73.4-0.1
A.COOPER, CLEWR815.316.9-1.608.398.3
D.SAMUEL, SFWR714.416.8-2.43.77.940.9
D.METCALF, SEAWR812.316.5-4.207.892.1
M.ANDREWS, BALTE815.216.3-1.10.3885.1
C.SUTTON, DENWR81116.1-5.10.17.894.1
C.SAMUEL, WASWR812.716-3.32.17.841.5
D.MOORE, CARWR812.215.7-3.50.98.194.9
M.THOMAS, NOWR31715.71.307.379
B.HALL, NYJRB716.415.70.711.74.621
D.COOK, MINRB71615.60.416.63.1-3.7
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR615.715.60.10.88.348.7
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR714.915.4-0.508.499.3
A.JONES, GBRB816.115.30.812.54.8-1.5
N.CHUBB, CLERB820.415.35.1191.9-2.1
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR311.515.3-3.80875
A.THIELEN, MINWR71215.2-3.207.166.4
C.KIRK, JAXWR813.515-1.50.47.671.3
J.WADDLE, MIAWR818.114.93.20.37.882.1
Z.ERTZ, ARITE812.314.9-2.607.555.6
J.MEYERS, NEWR615.914.71.20.27.573.5
A.GIBSON, WASRB813.114.6-1.59.94.46.1
B.COOKS, HOUWR710.514.6-4.107.670.3
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB711.114.4-3.310.44.41.4
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB715.314.40.914.91.74.7
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR814.114.3-0.207.689.5
G.WILSON, NYJWR811.114.2-3.10.17.458.8
N.HARRIS, PITRB810.914.1-3.213.63.50.5
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB812.714.1-1.412.13.33.1
T.HIGBEE, LATE79.613.9-4.30825.1
A.LAZARD, GBWR61413.80.206.887.2
D.SMITH, PHIWR713.113.8-0.707.360
J.PALMER, LACWR69.413.8-4.40.26.740.2
B.AIYUK, SFWR813.913.80.10.16.862.4
J.CONNER, ARIRB510.113.6-3.511.23.84.2
R.MOORE, ARIWR51113.6-2.616.630.6
Z.JONES, JAXWR710.413.5-3.10.47.154.7
J.JEUDY, DENWR811.613.2-1.60.16.879.8
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE710.713.1-2.406.956.3
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR812.713.1-0.40.56.687
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR713.313.10.206.959
M.SANDERS, PHIRB714.5131.516.71.9-1.3
G.KITTLE, SFTE611.712.9-1.206.537.2
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR710.512.7-2.20679.4
M.CARTER, NYJRB81012.5-2.59.53.91.5
C.CLAYPOOL, PITWR89.812.4-2.61.16.359.1
M.JONES, JAXWR77.812.4-4.605.978
G.DAVIS, BUFWR613.612.31.305.587.8
G.EVERETT, LACTE79.912.3-2.406.446.1
T.HOCKENSON, DETTE712.212.2006.148.4
D.CHARK, DETWR37.612.2-4.606109.3
K.HUNT, CLERB810.712.1-1.49.62.90
R.MOSTERT, MIARB81012.1-2.113.42.54.3
J.DOTSON, WASWR413.112.110.35.582.5
K.PITTS, ATLTE78.412-3.605.663
D.SWIFT, DETRB416.311.94.48.54.30.5
T.HIGGINS, CINWR812.811.90.906.366.8
D.NJOKU, CLETE711.311.8-0.50.1638.7
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB713.511.71.89.72.7-1.3
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB711.111.7-0.615.91.1-2.1
M.HOLLINS, LVWR710.911.7-0.805.672.6
D.LONDON, ATLWR89.811.7-1.906.161.5
E.BENJAMIN, ARIRB810.311.6-1.38.34-5.5
R.DOUBS, GBWR89.611.6-20.16.159.6
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR88.711.4-2.70.15.862.8
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE810.111.4-1.30.1641.8
A.ROBINSON, LAWR78.111.4-3.305.147.9
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB414.711.33.415.51.85
A.DILLON, GBRB88.111.2-3.1112.61
M.GORDON, DENRB8811.2-3.29.62.61.5
T.BOYD, CINWR813.511.22.305.454.8
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE89.111.2-2.10.15.644.5
G.PICKENS, PITWR88.211.2-30.15.579.5
N.BROWN, DALWR7911.1-2.105.657
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR78.411.1-2.70.15.466.1
R.GAGE, TBWR78.311.1-2.805.731.1
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB710.410.9-0.513.42-0.7
D.MOONEY, CHIWR87.710.9-3.205.574.1
D.WALLER, LVTE57.910.9-304.854.6
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB8710.8-3.82.856.3
A.PIERCE, INDWR79.610.7-1.105.468.7
T.POLLARD, DALRB813.110.62.510.62.40.4
J.WILSON, SFRB89.210.6-1.411.91.64.9
D.GOEDERT, PHITE711.410.50.905.925.9
H.HURST, CINTE8910.4-1.405.425.4
D.HARRIS, NERB79.19.8-0.710.120.1
J.LANDRY, NOWR48.59.7-1.205.356.5
K.WALKER, SEARB712.69.72.912.71.7-2
C.DAVIS, NYJWR79.49.6-0.204.977
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR89.19.6-0.50.1525.9
R.TONYAN, GBTE88.79.5-0.805.324.6
C.BRATE, TBTE54.99.5-4.604.429
L.THOMAS, WASTE47.49.4-20541.8
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB77.19.4-2.33.34.44.9
D.HENDERSON, LARB78.19.3-1.27.62.93.7
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR6109.30.70.54.528.8
B.ROBINSON, WASRB46.79.3-2.614.30.5-2
G.EDWARDS, BALRB212.69.33.313.50.51
M.GALLUP, DALWR56.39.2-2.904.652
N.COLLINS, HOUWR68.19.2-1.10568.5
J.DOBBINS, BALRB48.69.2-0.691.50.8
R.WOODS, TENWR77.49.1-1.704.939.3
E.MOORE, NYJWR75.19-3.90.34.458.4
J.ROBINSON, JAXRB89.290.210.61.41.9
K.HERBERT, CHIRB812.393.311.50.9-1.8
I.SMITH, MINTE77.38.9-1.604.722.1
H.RENFROW, LVWR56.58.8-2.30526.6
M.HARDMAN, KCWR710.68.81.80.63.630.7
R.BATEMAN, BALWR68.98.80.104.762.3
R.COBB, GBWR67.38.7-1.404.346.3
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB78.18.7-0.612.10.7-1.9
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR810.68.620.9442.1
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE66.48.6-2.204.828.2
N.HINES, INDRB77.68.5-0.92.646.4
J.JONES, TBWR37.88.5-0.713.762.3
A.GREEN, ARIWR62.98.4-5.503.842.7
C.AKERS, LARB54.68.4-3.810.416.6
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
K.OSBORN, MINWR77.38.3-10.14.435.9
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR47.28-0.80419.3
J.JOHNSON, NOTE86.87.9-1.104.332.5
R.PENNY, SEARB510.47.92.511.81-2.4
F.MOREAU, LVTE55.77.8-2.104.621
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR77.87.800.14.331.7
D.CARTER, LACWR76.57.7-1.20.1436.6
K.DRAKE, BALRB67.87.60.28.51.5-4.3
J.MCKINNON, KCRB76.17.5-1.44.12.40.3
T.BURKS, TENWR467.5-1.50.5448.8
R.ANDERSON, ARIWR84.77.5-2.803.954.6
D.KNOX, BUFTE67.57.40.103.827.5
K.RAYMOND, DETWR75.97.4-1.50.43.645.7
M.GESICKI, MIATE88.67.41.203.834.9
A.DULIN, INDWR55.87.3-1.50.23.643
D.PARKER, NEWR86.67.3-0.703.558.8
C.EDMONDS, MIARB86.27.3-1.15.32.15.1
R.WHITE, TBRB85.47.3-1.93.92.81.8
N.FANT, SEATE85.77.1-1.403.519.9
C.OTTON, TBTE75.16.9-1.803.715.6
C.MOORE, HOUWR55.86.5-0.703.220.6
G.DORTCH, ARIWR876.40.60.13.516.6
D.HILLIARD, TENRB69.46.33.12.32.84.5
J.JENNINGS, SFWR74.66.2-1.603.423.7
K.GRANSON, INDTE84.76.2-1.503.316.1
I.LIKELY, BALTE856.2-1.203.118.8
D.ROBINSON, BALWR84.46.1-1.703.127.3
B.JORDAN, HOUTE41.96.1-4.203.525.8
H.HENRY, NETE856-10323.9
S.WATKINS, GBWR46600340
R.JAMES, NYGWR84.76-1.30.33.326.4
M.CALLAWAY, NOWR83.95.9-20337.5
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR87.65.91.70.12.930.1
J.CROWDER, BUFWR435.8-2.803.330.3
S.MICHEL, LACRB73.35.8-2.54.71.72.6
A.MATTISON, MINRB76.55.70.851.6-1
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR83.85.7-1.902.928
K.PHILIPS, TENWR435.7-2.703.325
M.GASKIN, MIARB23.25.5-2.322.57
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR75.75.50.20337.3
S.SMITH, CARWR82.35.5-3.202.624.9
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
K.ALLEN, LACWR26.95.41.50328.5
S.PERINE, CINRB85.45.402.42.55
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR76.35.3102.724.1
D.PETTIS, CHIWR85.15.3-0.20.12.425.5
J.SMITH, NETE73.85.2-1.402.913.1
D.JACKSON, INDRB85.15.2-0.13.81.8-1.6
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB31.25.2-45.70.70
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE77.15.120.12.67.9
C.KMET, CHITE84.55-0.502.516.1
W.DISSLY, SEATE87.552.502.812.5
J.KELLEY, LACRB64.85-0.23.81.70
H.BRYANT, CLETE83.24.9-1.702.619
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB74.34.9-0.63.61.31.3
K.HAMLER, DENWR73.74.9-1.20.3252.4
D.FOREMAN, CARRB86.54.91.66.90.4-1.1
J.WARREN, PITRB84.54.9-0.43.81.8-1.9
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB63.54.8-1.33.71.3-4
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR63.44.6-1.20.32.336
K.BOURNE, NEWR744.5-0.50.32.128.3
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR63.54.5-102.341.7
T.HILL, NOTE711.74.57.25.60.61.1
C.WATSON, GBWR54.54.500.62.414.8
K.TONEY, NYGWR22.24.3-2.10.51.5-3.5
Z.MOSS, BUFRB53.44.3-0.93.41.6-1
M.BOONE, DENRB72.94.2-1.32.11.73.9
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR85.24.11.10.91.99.5
J.AGNEW, JAXWR654.10.90.81.819
C.BEASLEY, TBWR22.94.1-1.202.56
N.GRAY, KCTE73.34-0.70.129.9
I.PACHECO, KCRB74405.70.3-1.3
D.SILLS, NYGWR82.74-1.302.116.6
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB74.440.43.31.41.1
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE52.43.9-1.502.25
I.THOMAS, CARTE833.9-0.902.36.9
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE84.63.90.7029.3
P.DORSETT, HOUWR62.83.9-1.10226.5
J.COOK, BUFRB74.33.80.53.41.14.9
J.MUNDT, MINTE73.73.70022.3
O.HOWARD, HOUTE74.13.70.401.924.4
T.COLEMAN, SFRB45.53.71.83.30.86
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR72.93.6-0.70.11.417.7
T.TREMBLE, CARTE82.93.6-0.701.817.1
J.BATES, WASTE72.63.6-102.17.9
A.HOOPER, TENTE73.13.6-0.50216.6
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR83.53.6-0.101.930.8
J.WOODS, INDTE74.53.5101.418
E.SAUBERT, DENTE82.73.4-0.701.819.8
J.HILL, BALRB63.63.40.24.70.7-0.5
B.BOLDEN, LVRB54.43.411.41.65.2
J.FERGUSON, DALTE83.53.40.101.58.6
B.SCOTT, PHIRB52.83.3-0.54.80.20.4
M.BREIDA, NYGRB82.33.3-12.914.5
B.POWELL, LAWR72.33.2-0.911.43.1
D.BROWN, WASWR64.43.11.301.538.2
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR31.43.1-1.701.723.3
E.MITCHELL, SFRB14.131.1600
G.SWAIM, TENTE62.93-0.101.55.7
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR41.13-1.901.513.5
J.WINFREE, GBWR30.93-2.101.317.3
S.MOORE, KCWR723-101.712.6
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE82.93-0.101.58.5
C.SIMS, WASWR81.12.8-1.701.420.3
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR81.72.8-1.10.31.46.4
J.GUYTON, LACWR32.82.8001.338.3
Z.GENTRY, PITTE82.72.8-0.101.61.5
K.HODGE, ATLWR82.92.80.101.514.9
A.TRAUTMAN, NOTE63.62.70.901.311
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR42.62.7-0.101.516.5
T.HOMER, SEARB43.32.70.61.51.3-0.8
D.SMYTHE, MIATE62.92.60.30.21.25
J.FORTSON, KCTE72.42.6-0.200.94.4
C.PARKINSON, SEATE842.61.401.410.8
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR73.42.60.80.11.38.1
D.BELL, CLEWR82.42.5-0.101.413.3
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB71.82.4-0.601.32.7
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB82.82.40.41.31-3
C.OKONKWO, TENTE72.32.4-0.10.11.110
T.HUDSON, NYGTE822.4-0.401.410.8
M.STRACHAN, INDWR71.32.3-101.113.6
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR72.22.3-0.100.96.6
J.OLIVER, BALTE81.82.2-0.4013.4
J.PROCHE, BALWR61.22.1-0.9019.8
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR51.32.1-0.801.211
C.HUBBARD, CARRB72.820.82.10.6-0.3
T.MCKITTY, LACTE712-1012.3
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE60.92-1.1017.8
T.EBNER, CHIRB80.72-1.32.10.40.8
D.OGUNBOWALE, HOURB71.72-0.30.11.12
T.WALLACE, BALWR60.91.9-10114.5
T.ATWELL, LAWR51.51.9-0.40.20.830.8
C.WILSON, MIAWR71.31.9-0.60.1112.7
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR31.81.9-0.10119.3
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE71.91.9001.14.1
J.HASTY, JAXRB82.61.90.71.10.9-3.5
D.DALLAS, SEARB81.81.801.50.60.3
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
T.KROFT, SFTE31.21.8-0.60113
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR511.8-0.800.86.2
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR70.71.7-10.30.911.7
J.JACKSON, DETRB71.51.7-0.21.30.43.3
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB80.51.6-1.10.80.81.1
A.BECK, DENTE81.11.6-0.50.10.86
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR60.81.6-0.800.86.5
J.REAGOR, MINWR71.71.60.10.10.71.3
J.DEGUARA, GBTE81.61.50.100.91.4
M.DAVIS, BALRB60.31.5-1.21.300
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE51.41.5-0.100.86.6
S.FEHOKO, DALWR51.11.5-0.400.810.2
B.WRIGHT, DETTE72.11.50.600.94
P.HESSE, ATLTE81.31.4-0.100.85.5
T.DAVIS, GBTE70.91.4-0.500.92.4
Q.CEPHUS, DETWR40.91.3-0.400.83.5
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE81.71.30.400.83.3
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE80.81.3-0.500.64.6
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE41.41.30.100.83.8
D.MILNE, WASWR811.3-0.300.84.3
G.RICCI, CARTE81.41.30.100.83.4
J.STOLL, PHITE70.61.3-0.700.62.6
I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHIWR60.11.3-1.20.20.74.7
R.DWELLEY, SFTE82.41.21.200.68.6
A.ROGERS, WASTE81.41.20.200.81.6
M.WILCOX, CINTE81.31.20.100.81.6
H.HASKINS, TENRB70.91.2-0.31.40.3-1
J.SMITH, NYJWR811.1-0.100.66.8
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR71.21.10.100.68.6
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR60.71.1-0.400.74.5
C.MANHERTZ, JAXTE80.71-0.300.5-0.1
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR80.61-0.40.40.52.1
J.HORSTED, LVTE70.71-0.300.63.7
D.FELTON, CLERB50.20.8-0.60.20.41.8
A.RODGERS, GBWR80.70.8-0.10.400
R.RODGERS, LACTE500.8-0.800.20.2
D.HARTY, NOWR40.80.8000.51.3
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
C.EVANS, CINRB80.60.7-0.100.46.5
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE70.80.70.100.41.7
T.JONES, JAXWR70.70.7000.40.6
K.KIEFT, TBTE810.70.300.44.3
Z.WHITE, LVRB60.40.6-0.21.200
J.TONGES, CHITE300.6-0.600.34.3
J.WILLIAMS, WASRB51.10.60.51.200
C.WOERNER, SFTE700.6-0.600.36.1
S.MORGAN, CINWR600.6-0.600.20
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB810.50.50.500
M.LEWIS, GBTE710.50.500.10.3
J.DARDEN, TBWR80.60.50.10.10.31.3
T.SWEENEY, BUFTE30.60.50.100.3-0.3
M.BOYKIN, PITWR80.30.5-0.200.35.8
D.TURNER, LVWR30.70.50.2100
K.TURPIN, DALWR80.20.4-0.20.40.11.1
J.NAILOR, MINWR50.50.40.100.22.6
P.HART, SEAWR50.50.30.200.21.4
L.FARRELL, JAXTE70.30.20.100.1-0.3
S.ANDERSON, ARITE80.20.2000.10.3
T.TAYLOR, CINWR80.20.2000.1-0.5
G.OLSZEWSKI, PITWR700.1-0.10.300
J.MASON, SFRB60.10.100.200

WEEK 8 BUY LOW

DAVANTE ADAMS

Some managers might be panicking over Davante Adams’ Week 8 no-show when he gained only two total yards on five targets and one carry, but he still profiles as an elite receiver for the rest of the season. Even after a down game, he is still on pace for 165 targets and is one of only eight receivers to average over 20 XFP per game this season.

Adams was sick all week and missed practice Wednesday and Thursday while returning for a limited session on Friday. Even though he was able to play, he was very likely less than 100%. The Raiders also benched their starters in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss, so he also missed out on some garbage-time production. In his previous three games before Week 8, Adams averaged 106.7 yards on 9.7 targets, so I’m not overly concerned about one bad game.

I’d prefer Adams over someone like Jaylen Waddle (14.9 XFP per game). If you have a hot receiver around that tier, moving up to a proven target hog like Adams would be a good strategy.

DALTON SCHULTZ

Dalton Schultz’s season-long numbers in the above graphic look ugly due to a combination of injuries and playing without quarterback Dak Prescott, but Dak and Schultz both appear to finally be healthy.

In the three games they have played together, Schultz is averaging 7 targets, 6 catches, and 61.7 yards. That’s good for 12.2 PPR points per game, which effectively ties Zach Ertz (12.3) and TJ Hockenson (12.2) for TE3 on a per-game basis despite not scoring a single touchdown.

What’s more impressive is that Schultz has a 25.9% target share over these three games. Dak has only averaged 27 pass attempts per game, which would rank 29th in the NFL. Two of the three games were blowout wins over the Lions and Bears, so Dak’s attempts and Schultz’s raw target numbers should rise as the Cowboys play more competitive games.

I would give Schultz as good of a shot as anyone to finish TE3 over the rest of the season behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Make a move for him if you need help at the position.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS

WEEK 8 SELL HIGH

TONY POLLARD

Tony Pollard led all players in fantasy points over expected (Week 8 Difference column) with a whopping 24.4 thanks to his three-touchdown day. However, this kind of production does not appear to be sustainable for several reasons.

First, Pollard didn’t play as big of a role as you would think from his box score numbers. He only played 53% of the snaps, which is more than his normal ~40% snap share when teammate Ezekiel Elliott plays, but not as big of an increase as many were hoping for.

Fourteen carries are fine, but Pollard still only saw 58% of the team’s non-QB rushing attempts, and the Cowboys ran the ball more than normal since they were winning the entire game. They won’t run the ball over 50% of the time every game, so Pollard would likely need a higher percentage of carries to maintain last week’s carry numbers in future weeks.

After Pollard’s Week 8 performance, Jerry Jones confirmed that Elliott will reclaim the starting job when he returns from injury.

This may not make sense, but nobody has ever accused Jones of being a rational decision-maker. According to Edwin Porras, DPT, Week 10-11 seems to be a reasonable target for Zeke’s return.

If I had Pollard, I’d be trying to add a replacement-level receiver or another small piece to tier up to someone like Chris Godwin or Ja’Marr Chase, depending on my team’s needs. I would definitely try to sell before Zeke returns.

BRANDON AIYUK

Aiyuk’s season-long numbers are certainly better than last year when he was in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse, but his 13.8 XFP per game is still only good for WR34, effectively making Aiyuk a replacement-level receiver.

However, over the previous three games, Aiyuk has scored 21.2 PPR points per game, which might make him intriguing to your league mates. Over the same stretch, he has averaged 17.9 XFP on 9.3 targets. Not quite as good as his fantasy output, but still very solid.

My concern is that Aiyuk only saw that kind of workload in games where the 49ers were missing key weapons. Christian McCaffrey wasn’t on the team for the first game of Aiyuk’s hot streak and barely played in the second game. Deebo Samuel missed the third game with a hamstring injury and seems likely to see more targets and fewer carries with CMC in the fold.

Aiyuk was third on the team with 5 targets last week behind McCaffrey with 9 (36% target share) and Kittle with 6. He saved his fantasy day with a trick play touchdown pass from McCaffrey, but the offense is unlikely to support four fantasy-relevant players moving forward. I would look to package Aiyuk with another player to try to get someone like Godwin if possible.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH

  • Nick Chubb – (only for another elite player, but I would still move him in full-PPR if I could tier up to CMC, Ekeler, Kamara, Saquon, or Henry)
  • Gabriel Davis
  • Most of the previous players on the sell list have already gotten injured (Cordarrelle Patterson, D’Andre Swift, Allen Lazard, Rashaad Penny) or are now irrelevant (CEH, James Robinson, Taysom Hill). That is why I don’t have as many active sell recommendations.

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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