Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Ja'Marr Chase, Sell Gabriel Davis - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Ja’Marr Chase, Sell Gabriel Davis

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy low and sell high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFCARTGTAIR YDS
C.KUPP, LAWR526.424.61.80.412.898.4
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR523.223.3-0.10.21190
D.ADAMS, LVWR520.123.1-30.410.8118.4
J.MIXON, CINRB513.822.9-9.119.45.4-6
J.CHASE, CINWR515.321.8-6.50.810.690
M.BROWN, ARIWR519.521.2-1.7011103.6
T.HILL, MIAWR520.820.50.30.81097
S.DIGGS, BUFWR52420.53.5010.2108.4
C.MCCAFFREY, CARRB51920.1-1.114.86.83
C.SUTTON, DENWR515.419.8-4.40.29.2113.6
D.JOHNSON, PITWR511.619.7-8.10.410112.4
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB518.319.7-1.415.46-6.2
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB521.119.61.519.44.61.6
T.KELCE, KCTE522.419.33.10.28.464.2
D.HENRY, TENRB518.619.2-0.6212.82.8
J.TAYLOR, INDRB412.619-6.420.54-2.5
J.JACOBS, LVRB519.418.90.5193.8-3
C.LAMB, DALWR514.918.7-3.80.210100.2
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR419.718.61.119.854.8
M.ANDREWS, BALTE518.218.5-0.30.29.295.6
A.BROWN, PHIWR515.518.3-2.80994.6
A.EKELER, LACRB522.718.34.412.66.6-12.2
C.SAMUEL, WASWR51518.1-3.11.6943.6
D.METCALF, SEAWR514.618-3.408.695.6
C.OLAVE, NOWR515.217.7-2.508.4148.8
B.HALL, NYJRB516.417.7-1.311.4630.6
A.KAMARA, NORB312.817.5-4.7165.79.3
M.PITTMAN, INDWR414.817.5-2.70958
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB410.517.3-6.8125.5-6
D.SAMUEL, SFWR51517.1-2.14.47.635
A.COOPER, CLEWR515.117.1-208.689.4
G.WILSON, NYJWR512.617-4.40.28.476.2
T.HIGBEE, LATE512.416.9-4.509.633
J.MEYERS, NEWR317.616.90.70.39102
D.PIERCE, HOURB515.616.7-1.117.63-0.8
Z.ERTZ, ARITE51316.6-3.608.254.6
B.COOKS, HOUWR510.716.4-5.708.468.6
N.CHUBB, CLERB522.216.26201.80.8
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR515.816-0.208.899.2
A.GIBSON, WASRB511.915.8-3.911.444.8
M.THOMAS, NOWR31715.71.307.379
C.KIRK, JAXWR514.615.4-0.80.27.874.2
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR311.515.3-3.80875
M.EVANS, TBWR417.415.32.107.395.3
D.LONDON, ATLWR512.515.1-2.607.878.4
Z.JONES, JAXWR411.615-3.40.3853
D.COOK, MINRB514.315-0.716.43-5.8
A.THIELEN, MINWR511.214.9-3.70760
J.WADDLE, MIAWR516.814.91.90.47.679.8
D.SMITH, PHIWR513.914.8-0.907.670.6
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB515.414.80.615.61.66.6
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR516.514.81.708105.4
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR513.714.6-0.906.887.2
M.SANDERS, PHIRB514.714.60.117.82.4-0.8
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB516.414.51.910.63.60.2
D.MOORE, CARWR59.314.4-5.117.476.2
K.HUNT, CLERB51314.3-1.311.43.2-1
R.MOORE, ARIWR28.414-5.61.56.538
N.HARRIS, PITRB510.314-3.713.831
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB510.713.7-38.24.80.2
T.HOCKENSON, DETTE513.113.7-0.606.853.2
J.CONNER, ARIRB510.113.6-3.511.23.84.2
J.WILSON, SFRB512.513.6-1.115.21.82.8
A.JONES, GBRB514.613.6112.43.8-1
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB59.713.4-3.73.468
M.CARTER, NYJRB51113.4-2.4104.2-1.4
R.STEVENSON, NERB512.713.4-0.713.83.22
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR59.113.3-4.20759.8
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR511.713.1-1.40.26.695.2
A.LAZARD, GBWR413.712.61.106.382.5
M.HOLLINS, LVWR510.112.4-2.305.679.4
C.GODWIN, TBWR310.612.4-1.80.36.331.7
A.DILLON, GBRB59.312.3-312.82.81.8
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR5712.2-5.206.262.4
D.CHARK, DETWR37.612.2-4.606109.3
C.CLAYPOOL, PITWR56.712.1-5.41.45.855.8
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR58.912.1-3.20.26.267.2
M.JONES, JAXWR5912.1-3.10679
J.DOTSON, WASWR413.112.110.35.582.5
E.MOORE, NYJWR57.212-4.80.4683
R.GAGE, TBWR59.212-2.806.230.2
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE59.912-2.106.450.8
J.ROBINSON, JAXRB51312114.41.80.2
N.BROWN, DALWR510.611.9-1.305.859
H.RENFROW, LVWR37.511.7-4.206.724
G.PICKENS, PITWR58.411.6-3.205.894.6
J.JEUDY, DENWR59.911.6-1.70.25.871
C.DAVIS, NYJWR511.811.60.205.891.6
M.GORDON, DENRB58.411.5-3.110.62.61
D.NJOKU, CLETE511.311.5-0.20.25.831
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB58.811.4-2.616.61.4-3
B.AIYUK, SFWR59.511.4-1.90.25.255.6
H.HURST, CINTE59.511.4-1.905.621.8
D.SWIFT, DETRB316.911.45.59.342.3
K.PITTS, ATLTE46.311.3-505.586.5
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB414.711.33.415.51.85
J.PALMER, LACWR58.311.1-2.80.25.638.4
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE59.211.1-1.90625.2
G.EVERETT, LACTE510.111.1-105.845
J.DOBBINS, BALRB310.911.1-0.29.721
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB13.311-7.71500
D.HARRIS, NERB510.911-0.111.42-1
R.DOUBS, GBWR510.911-0.10.25.844.6
D.WALLER, LVTE57.910.9-304.854.6
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE57.610.8-3.20.25.240.4
R.MOSTERT, MIARB59.110.8-1.7122.42.6
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB5910.7-1.79.23.28.4
T.HIGGINS, CINWR512.710.7205.662
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB58.310.6-2.34.24.86.6
R.WOODS, TENWR58.710.6-1.905.646.6
D.GOEDERT, PHITE512.710.62.105.820
C.BRATE, TBTE45.310.5-5.204.829.5
T.POLLARD, DALRB510.210.5-0.39.42.6-0.2
A.PIERCE, INDWR49.310.4-1.105.561.5
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB410.710.40.3122.5-0.8
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR412.210.41.80.35.334.8
G.DAVIS, BUFWR41510.34.70583.5
R.ANDERSON, CARWR57.510.2-2.705.464.2
R.COBB, GBWR58.410.2-1.80555.8
R.BATEMAN, BALWR411.310.21.105.579.3
N.COLLINS, HOUWR58.410.1-1.705.477.8
A.GREEN, ARIWR43.710-6.304.548.5
A.ROBINSON, LAWR55.79.9-4.204.644.2
G.KITTLE, SFTE36.39.8-3.50522.7
T.BOYD, CINWR510.79.80.904.645.2
J.LANDRY, NOWR48.59.7-1.205.356.5
L.THOMAS, WASTE47.49.4-20541.8
I.SMITH, MINTE56.79.3-2.60528.6
K.HERBERT, CHIRB511.99.32.611.41-2
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR512931450.6
D.HENDERSON, LARB57.78.9-1.27.233.8
E.BENJAMIN, ARIRB58.38.9-0.663.4-4.4
C.EDMONDS, MIARB58.38.9-0.65.82.65.8
M.GALLUP, DALWR29.48.90.50435
G.DORTCH, ARIWR59.58.5104.825.4
C.AKERS, LARB54.68.4-3.810.416.6
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR57.28.4-1.204.838
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
N.HINES, INDRB56.28.3-2.11.84.23.8
D.MOONEY, CHIWR55.58.2-2.704.270
J.MCKINNON, KCRB55.98.2-2.352.20.4
K.OSBORN, MINWR57.68-0.40.24.240.6
D.KNOX, BUFTE45.87.9-2.104.326
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR36.17.9-1.80.7467
R.JAMES, NYGWR56.57.9-1.40.44.438
R.PENNY, SEARB510.47.92.511.81-2.4
S.SMITH, CARWR53.77.7-403.634.8
M.HARDMAN, KCWR56.57.7-1.20.43.437.4
T.BURKS, TENWR467.5-1.50.5448.8
J.JONES, TBWR26.77.5-0.813.580.5
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE43.87.3-3.504.322
A.DULIN, INDWR55.87.3-1.50.23.643
K.ALLEN, LACWR110.67.33.30452
D.PARKER, NEWR56.67.2-0.603.260.8
A.MATTISON, MINRB577.2-0.25.82.2-1.4
J.JOHNSON, NOTE54.67.1-2.503.837.6
K.GRANSON, INDTE54.87.1-2.303.619.8
R.TONYAN, GBTE57.270.2049.4
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR57.770.703.851.4
D.HILLIARD, TENRB411.474.41.33.55.8
R.WHITE, TBRB55.26.9-1.73.22.62.4
M.INGRAM, NORB55.36.9-1.67.81.2-2.8
N.FANT, SEATE55.96.7-0.803.219
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB45.76.5-0.8100.5-1.3
S.WATKINS, GBWR28.66.42.203.536
T.COLEMAN, SFRB210.96.44.54.51.512
C.MOORE, HOUWR44.76.3-1.60317.5
J.JENNINGS, SFWR54.86.2-1.403.425
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR58.76.22.502.835.4
K.RAYMOND, DETWR53.26-2.80.2338.2
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB55.16-0.93.81.61.4
J.KELLEY, LACRB55.86-0.24.620
D.CARTER, LACWR56.860.80.23.232.4
S.PERINE, CINRB56.55.90.632.610.6
K.WALKER, SEARB475.91.161.8-2.8
J.CROWDER, BUFWR435.8-2.803.330.3
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE57.35.81.50314
K.PHILIPS, TENWR435.7-2.703.325
H.BRYANT, CLETE53.45.6-2.20322.2
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR54.45.6-1.20316.8
C.OTTON, TBTE44.45.6-1.203.315
K.BOURNE, NEWR55.15.6-0.50.42.633.2
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
M.GASKIN, MIARB23.25.5-2.322.57
W.DISSLY, SEATE59.15.53.60314.6
K.DRAKE, BALRB33.45.4-27.70.7-1.7
I.LIKELY, BALTE52.65.3-2.702.610
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR53.45.3-1.902.629
C.WATSON, GBWR455.3-0.30.82.818.5
B.JORDAN, HOUTE21.95.2-3.30321.5
J.SMITH, NETE43.25.2-202.811.8
J.WARREN, PITRB54.25.2-13.81.8-0.8
F.MOREAU, LVTE34.55.2-0.70316.7
S.MICHEL, LACRB52.85.1-2.34.61.21.6
I.THOMAS, CARTE53.55.1-1.602.814.4
B.ROBINSON, WASRB12.25-2.81000
D.ROBINSON, BALWR53.45-1.602.424
H.HENRY, NETE53.75-1.302.823.4
E.SAUBERT, DENTE54.35-0.702.627.8
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE56.54.91.60.22.46
D.SILLS, NYGWR53.14.7-1.602.418.4
J.BATES, WASTE53.34.7-1.402.810.8
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR54.24.7-0.502.446.4
C.KMET, CHITE53.84.5-0.702.414
K.HODGE, ATLWR54.64.50.102.423.8
J.AGNEW, JAXWR55.34.50.80.8223.8
K.TONEY, NYGWR22.24.3-2.10.51.5-3.5
N.GRAY, KCTE53.34.3-10.2211.2
Z.MOSS, BUFRB53.44.3-0.93.41.6-1
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB53.54.3-0.83.41-2.8
M.GESICKI, MIATE554.30.702.419.8
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR544.2-0.201.619.6
B.BOLDEN, LVRB45.64.21.41.826.5
C.BEASLEY, TBWR22.94.1-1.202.56
M.BOONE, DENRB53.34.1-0.821.66.4
J.COOK, BUFRB54.14.103.41.43.4
J.HILL, BALRB44.640.64.81-0.8
O.HOWARD, HOUTE54.840.80229.4
T.TREMBLE, CARTE51.83.9-2.101.811.8
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE52.43.9-1.502.25
M.CALLAWAY, NOWR53.63.9-0.30223.8
I.PACHECO, KCRB543.80.25.800
T.HILL, NOTE414.73.810.95.30.30.5
J.MUNDT, MINTE53.33.7-0.402.23.4
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB54.83.71.13.41.22
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR42.33.6-1.301.820.5
A.HOOPER, TENTE52.33.6-1.30214.4
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR553.61.40.81.87.6
C.WILSON, MIAWR42.23.3-1.10.31.822.3
Z.GENTRY, PITTE53.33.3001.83.6
D.BROWN, WASWR55.23.31.901.640.4
G.SWAIM, TENTE53.53.20.301.64.2
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR31.43.1-1.701.723.3
D.SMYTHE, MIATE53.43.10.30.21.46
B.SCOTT, PHIRB33.43.10.33.30.30.7
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR41.13-1.901.513.5
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR523-10.21.47.4
E.MITCHELL, SFRB14.131.1600
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR31.62.9-1.301.310.3
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR51.92.9-101.617.6
K.HAMLER, DENWR42.12.9-0.80128.8
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR33.52.90.601.715.7
A.TRAUTMAN, NOTE542.91.101.412.6
J.WINFREE, GBWR21.42.8-1.401.525.5
T.MCKITTY, LACTE51.42.8-1.401.43.2
S.MOORE, KCWR52.52.8-0.301.611.8
D.JACKSON, INDRB52.62.8-0.230.8-0.4
J.GUYTON, LACWR32.82.8001.338.3
T.HOMER, SEARB332.80.21.31.3-1.7
J.WOODS, INDTE53.92.71.20116.6
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR31.12.6-1.501.313.3
M.BREIDA, NYGRB51.82.6-0.82.80.6-0.2
J.FORTSON, KCTE532.60.400.61.8
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR53.12.60.5018.6
D.PETTIS, CHIWR52.42.5-0.101.216.6
C.PARKINSON, SEATE54.72.52.201.414.2
C.SIMS, WASWR50.32.4-2.10125.4
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE31.32.4-1.101.315
M.STRACHAN, INDWR51.82.4-0.601.215
C.OKONKWO, TENTE52.92.40.50.219.8
T.ATWELL, LAWR41.62.3-0.70138.5
B.POWELL, LAWR51.62.3-0.70.810
T.EBNER, CHIRB512.2-1.22.40.61.2
T.JONES, NORB222.2-0.211-1
D.BELL, CLEWR52.12.2-0.101.214.4
J.REAGOR, MINWR52.32.20.10.211.8
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR512.1-1.10.213.8
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR51.32.1-0.801.211
T.DAVIS, GBTE51.32-0.701.23.4
J.JACKSON, DETRB522010.64.6
G.RICCI, CARTE52.220.201.25.4
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB53.421.41.40.8-3
T.WALLACE, BALWR50.71.9-1.20117
T.KROFT, SFTE211.9-0.90116.5
A.BECK, DENTE51.41.9-0.50.20.89.6
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR31.81.9-0.10119.3
C.CONLEY, HOUWR201.8-1.8019
L.CAGER, NYJTE101.8-1.80114
M.DAVIS, BALRB50.41.8-1.41.600
P.DORSETT, HOUWR40.61.8-1.2019
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
T.HUDSON, NYGTE51.41.8-0.40110.4
P.HESSE, ATLTE51.61.8-0.2017.2
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR11.51.7-0.2015
J.DEGUARA, GBTE51.71.60.1012.6
S.FEHOKO, DALWR51.11.5-0.400.810.2
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE51.41.5-0.100.86.6
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE51.71.50.200.84.6
J.OLIVER, BALTE51.81.50.300.6-1.4
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR50.81.4-0.600.85.4
J.FERGUSON, DALTE511.4-0.400.82.8
D.DALLAS, SEARB51.61.40.20.80.60
R.DWELLEY, SFTE52.61.41.200.86.8
D.FELTON, CLERB30.31.3-10.30.73
Q.CEPHUS, DETWR40.91.3-0.400.83.5
H.HASKINS, TENRB50.91.3-0.420.2-1.2
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR511.3-0.30.40.66
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE41.41.30.100.83.8
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE41.41.30.100.83
J.PROCHE, BALWR30.61.2-0.600.73.7
D.MILNE, WASWR50.81.2-0.400.64.8
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE41.21.2000.82.5
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE501.1-1.100.43.4
I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHIWR50.11.1-100.63
J.STOLL, PHITE50.31.1-0.800.40.2
J.SMITH, NYJWR511.1-0.100.67.2
R.RODGERS, LACTE401-100.30.3
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB50.31-0.700.60.2
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB50.71-0.300.42.8
C.MANHERTZ, JAXTE50.91-0.100.60.6
J.HASTY, JAXRB51100.20.6-1.8
J.HORSTED, LVTE511000.62.6
M.WILCOX, CINTE51.210.200.60.8
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE51.510.500.63.4
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR50.80.9-0.10.40.44.8
A.RODGERS, GBWR500.8-0.80.400
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
C.EVANS, CINRB50.30.8-0.500.45.8
M.BOYKIN, PITWR50.40.8-0.400.49.2
D.HARTY, NOWR40.80.8000.51.3
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB51.60.80.80.800
S.MORGAN, CINWR500.7-0.700.20
D.FOREMAN, CARRB50.40.7-0.31.400
M.LEWIS, GBTE51.40.70.700.20.4
J.TONGES, CHITE300.6-0.600.34.3
Z.WHITE, LVRB50.40.6-0.21.200
J.WILLIAMS, WASRB51.10.60.51.200
J.NAILOR, MINWR40.60.50.100.33.3
J.DARDEN, TBWR50.70.50.20.20.23
C.WOERNER, SFTE500.4-0.400.24
C.HUBBARD, CARRB50.60.40.20.800
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR50.60.40.200.24.4
K.KIEFT, TBTE50.60.40.200.23.2
B.WRIGHT, DETTE50.70.40.300.23
G.OLSZEWSKI, PITWR4-0.10.3-0.40.500
T.JONES, JAXWR500.3-0.300.2-0.4
S.ANDERSON, ARITE50.20.3-0.100.20.4
P.HART, SEAWR50.50.30.200.21.4
A.ROGERS, WASTE50.70.30.400.2-0.8
K.TURPIN, DALWR50.10.100.200
J.MASON, SFRB50.10.100.200

WEEK 6 BUY LOW

JA’MARR CHASE

2022 Stats

Ja’Marr Chase is currently seeing elite usage even though his fantasy numbers have been disappointing. He is currently fifth in the NFL in targets, and his 21.8 XFP falls behind only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Davante Adams.

2021 Stats

It might surprise you to see that Chase is earning 2.8 more targets per game than he did in 2021. He’s seeing the increased role you want out of an elite young player, growing his target share from 24% last year to 27.7% so far this season. In addition, teammate Tee Higgins has an injured ankle, potentially opening up even more targets for Chase.

Chase’s aDOT falling from 11.9 last year to 8.5 this season is not ideal, but he should still be able to make up for a decreased aDOT with higher volume. Teams are playing more Cover 2 defenses against the Bengals this season to take away deep shots, but Chase is still talented enough to dominate underneath on this type of volume.

After missing Joe Burrow for most of training camp and the entire preseason, I would bet that the Bengals’ offense is better in the second half of the season as Burrow shakes off the rust. He averaged a league-leading 8.9 yards per attempt last season, which is currently down to a mediocre 6.9 in 2022. Unless Burrow has miraculously turned into a bad quarterback, look for that number to increase as the season goes on.

I would still take Chase over any wide receiver other than Kupp, Jefferson, Adams, or Stefon Diggs. If you have the depth to spare, I’d prefer to try to tier up and send two solid starters in return for Chase, but that type of deal is context-dependent. Chase is likely to be difficult to land due to his draft position this year, but you should still value him as a likely rest-of-the-season stud in trades.

COURTLAND SUTTON

Similar to Chase, Courtland Sutton is another bet on a receiver who is seeing plenty of targets on an unexpectedly disappointing offense.

Sutton’s 19.8 XFP per game ranks eighth among all wide receivers, but he is currently just WR15 on a points-per-game basis. His 27.1% target share puts him in an elite company. Sutton is even averaging a solid 83.4 yards per game this season and is on pace for over 1400 yards.

Touchdowns are the main thing holding Sutton back from elite fantasy production, but it’s not for lack of opportunities. He has seen a whopping nine red zone targets in just five games, including four looks inside the five-yard line, but has only been able to convert one into a score.

Russell Wilson is at the bottom of the NFL with a 1.8% touchdown percentage, which is unsustainably low for even the NFL’s worst quarterbacks. Wilson’s career average is 6.2%. This rate will increase even if Wilson doesn’t improve his play, but new quarterbacks typically get more comfortable and put up better numbers in the second half of the season.

The Broncos are also dead last in red zone touchdown percentage at 21.43%, an unbelievably low number even for an offense that has struggled. the league median is about 57.5%. I still believe there’s a chance that Wilson improves significantly as the season goes on and he gets healthier. Still, even if he doesn’t, the touchdown numbers are almost certainly going to increase purely due to variance.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS

WEEK 6 SELL HIGH

GABRIEL DAVIS

Gabriel Davis is clearly capable of massive spike weeks as we saw in Week 5 when he put up a ridiculous 3-171-2 stat line on just 6 targets. However, his current workload is insufficient to sustain this production consistently.

Davis ranks WR61 in XFP per game on the season, and he is only seeing five targets per game (a 17-game pace of 85 targets) with a very high 16.7 aDOT. While playing in a part-time role, Davis saw an 11% target share each of his first two years in the NFL. Now, despite playing nearly every offensive snap, Davis only has a 12.4% target share on the season.

Davis is an efficient deep threat for the Bills and a useful real-life player in his role, but he doesn’t appear to have the ability to earn enough targets to become a player I want to bet on in fantasy, especially in full-PPR leagues. He’s much better in best-ball formats and standard leagues where that type of usage is more valuable.

In some leagues, you may be able to get a player experiencing rotten luck like Diontae Johnson for him. Johnson is averaging 19.7 XFP on 10 targets per game, and I believe is a drastically better bet than Davis in full-PPR, despite their similar ranking in the FantasyPros ECR. Davis is currently ahead of Johnson in The Wolf’s rest of the season ranks.

TAYSOM HILL

Last week, I highlighted Andrew Cooper’s excellent work on tight ends. We want our tight ends to be top-two targets in their offense. On average, only about one NFL team per season has three players each earn 100 or more targets, and a tight end is rarely included in the top three for those teams.

Taysom Hill is an interesting case because he essentially isn’t seeing any targets (just one for the entire season), but is currently the overall TE3 in points per game. He has only thrown one pass on the season (a 21-yard touchdown), but essentially all of his work is coming in the run game. Note that I don’t calculate XFP for passing, but since he only has one pass attempt on the season, the current impact is negligible.

Despite averaging 0.25 targets, 0.25 pass attempts, and 5.3 carries per game, Hill has scored an absurd six total touchdowns in four games. This touchdown rate is one of the craziest runs I’ve ever seen on such a small workload and is guaranteed to decrease significantly. Hill has seen four total red zone carries and has scored on all four (2, 8, 9, and 11 yards). He also had a 60-yard touchdown run in Week 5 for one of his four total scores on the day.

Hill’s usage would have to increase drastically or he would have to take over as the starting quarterback in order to stay relevant in fantasy. Both seem very unlikely with a healthy Alvin Kamara in the backfield and Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton both clearly ahead of Hill at quarterback. If you have Hill, search for the teams struggling most at tight end and see if you can get any kind of starting lineup upgrade.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH

  • Nick Chubb – (only for another elite player, but I would still move him in full-PPR in the right deal)
  • Allen Lazard

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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