Fantasy Football Week 3 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Joe Mixon, Sell Nick Chubb

You should buy-low on two underperforming studs this week.

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 2.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for Week 1 and Week 2 individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFFCARTGTAIR YDS
C.KUPP, LAWR231.829.22.6014.5112.5
D.ADAMS, LVWR219.726.1-6.5012129
J.MIXON, CINRB216.426.1-9.723.56.50.5
S.DIGGS, BUFWR235.524.810.7011.5125
M.PITTMAN, INDWR127.124.62.5013113
J.CHASE, CINWR219.924.5-4.70.512.582.5
G.WILSON, NYJWR219.623.5-3.90.511112
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR225.123.21.9011.5105.5
T.HILL, MIAWR23023.26.80.512.5123.5
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR229.923.16.811275.5
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB214.722.7-811.58-4
J.WADDLE, MIAWR228.922.66.30.512116
C.SUTTON, DENWR215.522.5-70.59127
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB222.622.40.219.55.53
C.SAMUEL, WASWR221.122-12.51033
A.GIBSON, WASRB216.121.6-5.51469
A.BROWN, PHIWR218.721.1-2.4010.5102.5
B.COOKS, HOUWR212.320.9-8.6011102
C.LAMB, DALWR21020.5-10.50.511104
D.JOHNSON, PITWR213.120-6.9011111
J.TAYLOR, INDRB217.419.1-1.720.54-5
A.EKELER, LACRB214.818.8-4147-14
M.THOMAS, NOWR220.618.42.208.598.5
T.HIGBEE, LATE211.518.3-6.801038
M.BROWN, ARIWR213.618.3-4.708.597.5
D.LONDON, ATLWR218.518.20.309.591
J.MEYERS, NEWR214.418-3.70.59.5102.5
C.KIRK, JAXWR221.8183.80986
M.ANDREWS, BALTE21817.80.10.59112
C.OLAVE, NOWR210.117.6-7.508186
A.DILLON, GBRB213.917.6-3.714.54.57
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB212.617-4.522.53-2.5
M.CARTER, NYJRB213.516.6-3.1107-4
D.SAMUEL, SFWR213.716.4-2.86716
N.HARRIS, PITRB212.316.3-4.112.543.5
A.COOPER, CLEWR214.916.1-1.20875.5
Z.ERTZ, ARITE213.515.9-2.507.540
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE212.415.9-3.508.553
N.CHUBB, CLERB223.815.8820.52-4.5
C.MCCAFFREY, CARRB216.315.80.512.54.5-6.5
T.KELCE, KCTE218.115.72.40878.5
D.COOK, MINRB210.715.5-4.8135.5-9.5
D.WALLER, LVTE214.515.3-0.90774.5
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB213.415.1-1.818311
J.ROBINSON, JAXRB217.914.9318.521.5
D.METCALF, SEAWR28.114.6-6.606.540
N.BROWN, DALWR21614.51.50780.5
H.RENFROW, LVWR2814.2-6.20825
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE210.714.1-3.40814.5
G.EVERETT, LACTE213.814-0.30733
B.HALL, NYJRB211.613.9-2.46.55.511
M.SANDERS, PHIRB215.113.91.1152.5-4
K.HUNT, CLERB216.213.92.3123-5
H.HURST, CINTE28.513.8-5.307.528.5
J.CONNER, ARIRB211.813.7-1.98.5513
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB211.813.6-1.816.53-2
C.CLAYPOOL, PITWR2813.5-5.53634
C.DAVIS, NYJWR21513.51.506.5122
J.WILSON, SFRB28.713.4-4.81426
A.GREEN, ARIWR2513.4-8.505.545.5
T.POLLARD, DALRB21213.4-1.484.5-2.5
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR212.813.3-0.507.573.5
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB211.513.3-1.811.51.55
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR212.313.3-10763.5
A.DULIN, INDWR210.413.2-2.80.56.588
A.JONES, GBRB221.313.28.11041
T.HOCKENSON, DETTE26.713-6.30747.5
M.JONES, JAXWR27.112.7-5.605.583.5
E.MOORE, NYJWR28.212.6-4.40.5653
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR214.212.51.60774
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB27.512.5-5.175.515
R.ANDERSON, CARWR212.712.50.206.554
B.AIYUK, SFWR2912.5-3.50.5553.5
J.LANDRY, NOWR212.512.400771.5
D.CHARK, DETWR27.612.4-4.806105.5
D.HENRY, TENRB28.412.4-4.117.50.5-0.5
Z.JONES, JAXWR28.912.3-3.406.552.5
D.HARRIS, NERB212.312.3-0.1122.53.5
T.HIGGINS, CINWR211.912.2-0.30657
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE29.212.1-2.90627
D.SWIFT, DETRB221.612.19.510.545
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB219.112.1783.5-6.5
G.DORTCH, ARIWR214.411.92.506.541.5
J.DOTSON, WASWR21811.96.10.5572
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR2611.9-5.90646.5
J.PALMER, LACWR28.511.9-3.40.5629.5
J.JACOBS, LVRB28.711.8-3.1151-4
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR25.711.7-60.55.548
M.HARDMAN, KCWR29.111.7-2.60.5566
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR21311.51.50.5691.5
A.KAMARA, NORB17.611.4-3.81041
N.HINES, INDRB29.611.4-1.825.513
R.BATEMAN, BALWR217.411.36.10696.5
J.JOHNSON, NOTE27.211.1-40660.5
D.SMITH, PHIWR27.511.1-3.605.539.5
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB210.611-0.53510
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB13.311-7.71500
N.COLLINS, HOUWR27.211-3.80673.5
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE27.511-3.506.533
D.MOORE, CARWR210.710.9-0.20.5657.5
D.HENDERSON, LARB211.510.90.611.52.51
R.JAMES, NYGWR210.610.9-0.30.5657.5
J.JONES, TBWR111.610.80.825110
M.EVANS, TBWR213.610.82.805.575.5
S.SMITH, CARWR21.710.7-904.541.5
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB28.410.7-2.37.53.510.5
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR2810.6-2.605.543
M.GORDON, DENRB26.810.4-3.7111.56
T.BOYD, CINWR29.510.4-0.904.550.5
A.THIELEN, MINWR27.910.3-2.405.553.5
D.GOEDERT, PHITE211.110.30.80527.5
K.PITTS, ATLTE23.910.1-6.20559
L.THOMAS, WASTE210.110.1005.569.5
T.BURKS, TENWR28.610.1-1.505.572
D.HILLIARD, TENRB121.91011.92421
C.EDMONDS, MIARB27.810-2.28.53.58.5
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR213.49.93.505.560.5
E.BENJAMIN, ARIRB28.69.9-1.364-4
J.JEUDY, DENWR211.29.81.40.5556
I.SMITH, MINTE27.39.8-2.50533
I.LIKELY, BALTE24.29.7-5.504.528.5
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB279.7-2.73.532.5
M.HOLLINS, LVWR27.19.5-2.404.538
G.DAVIS, BUFWR118.89.59.30587
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB25.99.4-3.512.52-5.5
D.PIERCE, HOURB26.89.2-2.413.511
K.PHILIPS, TENWR25.18.7-3.60536
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB26.28.6-2.573-4
A.ROBINSON, LAWR28.88.60.103.533.5
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
K.GRANSON, INDTE24.38.4-4.104.520.5
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR25.18-304.547
J.MCKINNON, KCRB28.87.90.843-1
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR26.47.9-1.50.5473.5
H.BRYANT, CLETE25.77.9-2.30439.5
Z.MOSS, BUFRB24.77.9-3.24.53.5-2
R.WOODS, TENWR25.17.8-2.703.537
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR28.57.80.70327
J.JENNINGS, SFWR25.87.8-20430
C.MOORE, HOUWR24.87.6-2.803.519.5
R.MOSTERT, MIARB27.67.40.18.52-1.5
R.STEVENSON, NERB25.47.4-28.52-1.5
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE24.27.3-3.2049.5
R.GAGE, TBWR25.67.3-1.8048
R.DOUBS, GBWR26.87.3-0.60.5423
K.ALLEN, LACWR110.67.33.30452
R.PENNY, SEARB25.17.3-2.29.51.5-4
C.AKERS, LARB24.17.3-3.291.55
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR28.37.21.10334.5
D.KNOX, BUFTE24.87.1-2.303.518.5
A.MATTISON, MINRB247-352.5-4
K.WALKER, SEARB13.56.9-3.4432
A.LAZARD, GBWR19.36.92.40331
J.SMITH, NETE23.26.9-3.703.522.5
D.NJOKU, CLETE246.6-2.7038.5
C.WATSON, GBWR256.6-1.60.53.525
D.ROBINSON, BALWR26.16.5-0.50332.5
K.HERBERT, CHIRB28.26.51.76.51-1.5
D.CARTER, LACWR2126.55.503.554.5
S.WATKINS, GBWR28.66.42.103.536
M.INGRAM, NORB23.86.4-2.671.5-7.5
K.DRAKE, BALRB23.26.3-3.19.50.5-1.5
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR213.86.37.50341
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB27.16.20.941.5-0.5
I.THOMAS, CARTE24.86.2-1.40332.5
R.TONYAN, GBTE24.96-1.103.511
G.PICKENS, PITWR22.35.9-3.60363.5
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB135.9-2.91000
S.PERINE, CINRB24.45.7-1.41324.5
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR27.85.72.10326
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR25.55.7-0.2136
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR22.35.6-3.30343
R.COBB, GBWR25.15.6-0.50342
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR23.45.5-2.20320
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
R.WHITE, TBRB22.15.4-3.3421.5
A.HOOPER, TENTE22.35.4-3.10326
K.OSBORN, MINWR24.55.4-0.90315.5
K.HODGE, ATLWR27.35.31.90331
N.FANT, SEATE23.95.3-1.50310.5
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR125.3-3.30330
A.PIERCE, INDWR105.3-5.30215
J.KELLEY, LACRB24.55.3-0.8423
B.JORDAN, HOUTE21.95.2-3.30321.5
J.CROWDER, BUFWR24.25.1-0.90316
P.BROWN, HOUTE24.15.1-10317
J.MUNDT, MINTE24.85.1-0.30310
S.MICHEL, LACRB22.15.1-35.50.51.5
C.GODWIN, TBWR16.55.11.4030
M.STRACHAN, INDWR24.55-0.602.533.5
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE23.35-1.802.514.5
B.BOLDEN, LVRB110.855.83213
W.DISSLY, SEATE27.74.92.802.55
J.FORTSON, KCTE23.64.8-1.3011
N.GRAY, KCTE22.64.8-2.202.515
D.MOONEY, CHIWR21.24.8-3.602.543
I.PACHECO, KCRB26.44.71.7700
D.PARKER, NEWR214.6-3.70239.5
K.BOURNE, NEWR24.44.6-0.30235.5
M.GESICKI, MIATE27.64.53.102.515
C.BRATE, TBTE21.84.4-2.602.520
K.TONEY, NYGWR22.24.3-2.10.51.5-3.5
B.SCOTT, PHIRB25.14.20.840.51
M.DAVIS, BALRB20.84.2-3.43.500
J.COOK, BUFRB21.84-2.260.56.5
T.HOMER, SEARB24.23.90.31.52-2.5
K.HAMLER, DENWR103.8-3.80132
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR22.43.7-1.40211.5
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR23.63.7-0.1012
T.MCKITTY, LACTE22.73.7-1027
H.HENRY, NETE223.7-1.70221.5
A.BECK, DENTE23.63.7-0.10.51.511.5
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR22.83.6-0.80225
G.SWAIM, TENTE22.53.6-1.1022
D.SILLS, NYGWR23.43.6-0.20214.5
J.WARREN, PITRB21.63.4-1.83.51-3
C.SIMS, WASWR203.4-3.401.549.5
J.BATES, WASTE21.83.4-1.6029
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR22.43.4-101.59
F.MOREAU, LVTE233.3-0.3026.5
H.HASKINS, TENRB22.43.2-0.950.5-3
E.MITCHELL, SFRB14.131.1600
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR20.63-2.401.517.5
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR27.534.50133
J.HILL, BALRB22.42.9-0.52.511.5
C.WILSON, MIAWR22.42.9-0.50.51.512.5
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE21.42.8-1.401.522.5
S.FEHOKO, DALWR21.62.8-1.201.521.5
T.WALLACE, BALWR212.8-1.801.521.5
P.HESSE, ATLTE21.52.8-1.301.56.5
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR23.52.80.701.520.5
O.HOWARD, HOUTE29.82.8701.520
K.RAYMOND, DETWR202.7-2.70119.5
E.SAUBERT, DENTE24.62.71.901.520.5
J.AGNEW, JAXWR21.22.7-1.61.5121.5
D.SMYTHE, MIATE222.7-0.801.58
T.HUDSON, NYGTE22.12.7-0.601.514.5
R.DWELLEY, SFTE26.52.73.801.515.5
T.HILL, NOTE28.42.75.73.50.51
T.TREMBLE, CARTE20.62.7-2.100.5-0.5
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR22.12.6-0.501.513
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB21.72.5-0.9017
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR22.62.5001.54
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR21.32.4-1.101.51.5
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB20.72.4-1.701.50.5
M.BREIDA, NYGRB212.3-1.330.5-1
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR22.52.30.21110
T.JONES, NORB222.2-0.211-1
B.POWELL, LAWR20.72.2-1.5114.5
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR21.62-0.40125.5
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB22.12011-5
R.RODGERS, LACTE202-200.50.5
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE20.81.9-1.1014
D.MILNE, WASWR20.81.9-1.1018.5
D.FELTON, CLERB20.51.9-1.50.514.5
T.KROFT, SFTE211.9-0.90116.5
J.REAGOR, MINWR21.71.9-0.20.511.5
L.CAGER, NYJTE101.8-1.80114
J.WINFREE, GBWR12.71.80.90112
C.PARKINSON, SEATE26.21.84.40114.5
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
J.DEGUARA, GBTE22.41.80.6019
C.CONLEY, HOUWR201.8-1.8019
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE201.8-1.800.51.5
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR21.11.7-0.7018
C.OTTON, TBTE20.71.7-1017
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR22.11.70.4016.5
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR11.51.7-0.2015
P.DORSETT, HOUWR101.7-1.7015
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR21.61.7-0.1013.5
D.HARTY, NOWR21.71.60012.5
C.KMET, CHITE201.6-1.6010.5
Z.GENTRY, PITTE231.61.4010
T.DAVIS, GBTE20.71.6-0.901-1
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB221.60.41.50.51.5
A.RODGERS, GBWR201.3-1.3100
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR211.3-0.30.50.513
C.OKONKWO, TENTE20.91.1-0.30.50.55.5
M.BOYKIN, PITWR201.1-1.100.517.5
J.GUYTON, LACWR201-100.514
M.BOONE, DENRB20.61-0.400.51
D.FOREMAN, CARRB20.71-0.3200
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR21.610.600.511
D.PETTIS, CHIWR26.115.100.510.5
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE24.30.93.400.51
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE20.60.9-0.300.50.5
B.WRIGHT, DETTE21.80.90.800.57.5
S.MOORE, KCWR220.91.100.57.5
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE20.90.9000.5-0.5
J.SMITH, NYJWR21.40.90.500.54
D.BELL, CLEWR20.80.9-0.100.53
G.RICCI, CARTE21.30.80.500.52.5
T.ATWELL, LAWR200.8-0.800.52.5
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
S.ANDERSON, ARITE20.60.8-0.200.51
M.WILCOX, CINTE20.70.8-0.200.50.5
A.ROGERS, WASTE21.70.80.900.5-2
Z.WHITE, LVRB20.10.8-0.71.500
D.JACKSON, INDRB2-0.20.5-0.7100
K.TURPIN, DALWR20.20.4-0.20.500
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB20.70.30.50.500
C.HUBBARD, CARRB20.20.3-0.10.500
J.DARDEN, TBWR20.10.3-0.20.500
G.OLSZEWSKI, PITWR2-0.10.3-0.40.500

WEEK 3 BUY-LOW

JOE MIXON

Joe Mixon currently sits at the RB9 overall with 16.4 points per game through two games. He has been a solid fantasy contributor, but his workload suggests that more points are on the horizon.

Mixon is currently leading the position in expected fantasy points with a whopping 26.1 per game. He likely won’t be able to sustain his current pace of 23.5 carries and 6.5 targets per game for the entire season, but those numbers have plenty of room to come down, yet still remain elite. Mixon has played about 75% of the snaps this season, making him a rare bell-cow back in what should still be a great offense.

Mixon’s zero touchdowns so far this season are a big reason why he trails the top guys in raw points, but he already has four carries inside the 10-yard line. Expect Mixon to convert more scoring opportunities as Joe Burrow and the rest of the offense get back on track in the coming weeks.

CEEDEE LAMB

I will be the first to admit that I have been down on Lamb for most of his career. As a rookie, he generated a ton of hype but posted only an 18% target share behind teammates Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Last season, despite Gallup missing most of the year and Cooper often playing at less than 100% health, Lamb only garnered a 21% target share. That 21% mark is not what we’re looking for from an elite fantasy receiver.

Despite the 10.0 points per game average, Lamb appears to have taken a major step forward in the target share department. He has 22 targets on 79 Cowboys pass attempts, good for an elite 30% target share. We are dealing with only a two-week sample, and Lamb’s target share may not stay quite that high. But if he can stay around 25% or better, he has a great chance to be a difference-making receiver when quarterback Dak Prescott gets healthy.

Lamb might be a better target for teams prioritizing future production because his output may be inconsistent until Dak gets back, but look for Lamb to dominate down the stretch if he can maintain this type of target share.

WEEK 3 SELL-HIGH

NICK CHUBB

2022 Stats

Nick Chubb has finished as the PPR RB9, RB7, and RB13 in points per game in each of the past three years, respectively. At this point, we know who Chubb is: a highly efficient rusher who is not involved in the passing game and is typically capped at around 50% of the offensive snaps. Chubb has two games last season with a 66% snap share but typically hovered around 50% even when teammate Kareem Hunt was injured. He has played 53% of the snaps this season.

2021 Stats

As you can see, the expected numbers for both backs look pretty similar between this year and last year. Both are seeing slightly more rushing volume, which is expected since the Browns were leading for the vast majority of both games this season. However, they won’t get to play the Panthers or Jets every week, and I expect the XFP numbers to look very similar to 2021 by the end of the season. Even with the unsustainable 20.5 carries per game, Chubb is currently only the RB11 in XFP per game in 2022.

Thankfully, Chubb is good for a couple of blowup games every year, and he exploded in Week 2 with 17-87-3 on the ground. The touchdowns have him as the RB1 overall so far this season. Chubb managers in PPR formats now have an opportunity to swap for a different running back with a better passing game role such as Joe Mixon (mentioned above).

If I had Chubb, I would also try adding a piece to see if I could get the Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor owner to bite after relatively slow weeks from both guys.

D’ANDRE SWIFT

Before you leave a hate comment on this article telling me how great Swift is and how stupid I am, please understand that his inclusion on this list is more due to his high value than Swift being a bad fantasy asset. I want to sell Chubb this week, but I am more than happy to hold Swift if I can’t get a very specific type of trade done. I believe he will be a solid fantasy contributor this season.

That said, I think there are some minor concerns for Swift. First, teammate Jamaal Williams is the clear goal-line back. The Lions have eight carries inside the 10-yard line this season, and Williams has handled seven of them, including all four carries inside the five. Assuming this trend continues, Swift’s touchdown upside is capped significantly.

I’m not as worried about Swift’s receiving production as I am about his goal-line usage, but he might see a slight decline in receiving production compared to last season.

Part of the reason for this decline in production was Swift’s injury early in the game when he had 9 receiving yards. He also potentially played at less than 100% health for the final two games of the season after returning from the same injury. However, he was fully healthy for the 5 and 0-yard games.

Swift also saw an average of 7.1 targets per game before the play-caller change compared to the 4.3 targets he has averaged in healthy games since then, including this season. This could be noise, but I think it’s also possible that some combination of playcalling changes and Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s emergence has slightly decreased Swift’s receiving ceiling.

Like I mentioned at the beginning, I’m only moving Swift if I can get back another player with an elite ceiling. Similar to Chubb, my first step would be to check the availability of Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor if their owners need quality depth and if you have players to add to Swift. If you need depth yourself, I think there’s a chance you could pivot down to Mixon and net a startable player on top. Pivoting to Travis Kelce or an elite receiver could potentially make sense depending on your team.

The bottom line is I’m not selling Swift unless I can get an elite player back, but I am willing to explore deals for other studs.

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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