I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).
XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.
The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.
For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.
Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.
Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.
Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy low and sell high this week.
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.EKELER, LAC | RB | 9 | 23.6 | 23.3 | 0.3 | 12.4 | 9.1 | -9.2 |
| J.JEFFERSON, MIN | WR | 9 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 11.1 | 107.1 |
| D.ADAMS, LV | WR | 9 | 20.4 | 22.4 | -2 | 0.3 | 11 | 120.2 |
| J.MIXON, CIN | RB | 9 | 19.1 | 22.2 | -3.1 | 16.9 | 5.6 | -3.8 |
| D.HOPKINS, ARI | WR | 4 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 11.5 | 104.5 |
| S.DIGGS, BUF | WR | 9 | 23.6 | 21.7 | 1.9 | 0 | 10.9 | 122.7 |
| T.HILL, MIA | WR | 10 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 10.6 | 125.1 |
| J.CHASE, CIN | WR | 7 | 20.2 | 21.3 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 94.9 |
| C.KUPP, LA | WR | 9 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 10.9 | 78.2 |
| S.BARKLEY, NYG | RB | 9 | 20 | 20.7 | -0.7 | 22.1 | 4 | 3 |
| M.BROWN, ARI | WR | 6 | 18.3 | 20.5 | -2.2 | 0 | 10.7 | 111.5 |
| C.MCCAFFREY, SF | RB | 9 | 20.5 | 20 | 0.5 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
| T.KELCE, KC | TE | 9 | 20.8 | 19.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 9.3 | 68.6 |
| D.JOHNSON, PIT | WR | 9 | 10.5 | 19 | -8.5 | 0.6 | 9 | 93.9 |
| A.KAMARA, NO | RB | 8 | 16.7 | 18.7 | -2 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 9.3 |
| J.JACOBS, LV | RB | 9 | 19.5 | 18.7 | 0.8 | 18.7 | 4.2 | -2.8 |
| C.LAMB, DAL | WR | 9 | 17.2 | 18.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 9.8 | 101.1 |
| D.HENRY, TEN | RB | 9 | 19.7 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 22.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| R.STEVENSON, NE | RB | 9 | 16.6 | 18.3 | -1.7 | 14.8 | 4.9 | 6 |
| J.TAYLOR, IND | RB | 7 | 13.7 | 18 | -4.3 | 18.7 | 3.9 | -3.3 |
| M.PITTMAN, IND | WR | 9 | 13.9 | 18 | -4.1 | 0 | 9.4 | 61.1 |
| L.FOURNETTE, TB | RB | 10 | 15.5 | 17.7 | -2.2 | 14 | 5 | -4.6 |
| J.WILLIAMS, DEN | RB | 4 | 10.5 | 17.3 | -6.8 | 12 | 5.5 | -6 |
| C.GODWIN, TB | WR | 8 | 12.8 | 17.2 | -4.4 | 0.4 | 9.1 | 53 |
| M.EVANS, TB | WR | 9 | 14.9 | 17.2 | -2.3 | 0 | 8.4 | 105.3 |
| C.OLAVE, NO | WR | 9 | 13.8 | 17.2 | -3.4 | 0 | 8.6 | 123.7 |
| D.COOK, MIN | RB | 9 | 16.6 | 16.8 | -0.2 | 16.3 | 3.7 | -2.7 |
| C.SUTTON, DEN | WR | 9 | 11.2 | 16.5 | -5.3 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 97 |
| D.PIERCE, HOU | RB | 9 | 14.9 | 16.5 | -1.6 | 18.7 | 3 | -2 |
| A.BROWN, PHI | WR | 9 | 16.9 | 16.4 | 0.5 | 0 | 8.2 | 90.2 |
| D.SAMUEL, SF | WR | 8 | 13.5 | 16.3 | -2.8 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 39.5 |
| M.ANDREWS, BAL | TE | 8 | 15.2 | 16.3 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 8 | 85.1 |
| A.ST. BROWN, DET | WR | 8 | 15.7 | 16.3 | -0.6 | 1 | 8.8 | 53.5 |
| D.METCALF, SEA | WR | 10 | 12.6 | 16.2 | -3.6 | 0 | 7.7 | 86.7 |
| C.KIRK, JAX | WR | 10 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 72.6 |
| M.THOMAS, NO | WR | 3 | 17 | 15.7 | 1.3 | 0 | 7.3 | 79 |
| B.HALL, NYJ | RB | 7 | 16.4 | 15.7 | 0.7 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 21 |
| R.MOORE, ARI | WR | 7 | 12.6 | 15.6 | -3 | 0.7 | 8 | 43.7 |
| A.COOPER, CLE | WR | 9 | 14.3 | 15.6 | -1.3 | 0 | 7.7 | 90.3 |
| M.WILLIAMS, LAC | WR | 7 | 14.9 | 15.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 8.4 | 99.3 |
| S.SHEPARD, NYG | WR | 3 | 11.5 | 15.3 | -3.8 | 0 | 8 | 75 |
| D.MOORE, CAR | WR | 10 | 10.9 | 15.1 | -4.2 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 88.1 |
| T.ETIENNE, JAX | RB | 10 | 13.9 | 15 | -1.1 | 13.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| N.CHUBB, CLE | RB | 9 | 19.8 | 14.9 | 4.9 | 18.1 | 2.1 | -0.8 |
| J.PALMER, LAC | WR | 8 | 10.3 | 14.8 | -4.5 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 55.3 |
| A.THIELEN, MIN | WR | 9 | 11.5 | 14.7 | -3.2 | 0 | 7.1 | 72.9 |
| C.SAMUEL, WAS | WR | 10 | 12.5 | 14.7 | -2.2 | 2.2 | 7 | 42.9 |
| A.GIBSON, WAS | RB | 10 | 12.7 | 14.6 | -1.9 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| A.JONES, GB | RB | 10 | 15.9 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 13.4 | 4.2 | -1.7 |
| B.COOKS, HOU | WR | 8 | 10.2 | 14.6 | -4.4 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 69.5 |
| J.WILLIAMS, DET | RB | 9 | 14.3 | 14.5 | -0.2 | 16 | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| G.WILSON, NYJ | WR | 9 | 11.8 | 14.4 | -2.6 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 60.2 |
| D.SINGLETARY, BUF | RB | 9 | 11.3 | 14.3 | -3 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| J.WADDLE, MIA | WR | 10 | 17.5 | 14.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 84 |
| T.MCLAURIN, WAS | WR | 10 | 13.3 | 14.3 | -1 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 96.8 |
| J.MEYERS, NE | WR | 7 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 68.7 |
| N.HARRIS, PIT | RB | 9 | 10.8 | 14 | -3.2 | 14.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| J.CONNER, ARI | RB | 7 | 12.2 | 13.9 | -1.7 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| A.LAZARD, GB | WR | 8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 85 |
| B.AIYUK, SF | WR | 9 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 63.3 |
| Z.ERTZ, ARI | TE | 10 | 11.6 | 13.7 | -2.1 | 0 | 6.9 | 54.8 |
| T.LOCKETT, SEA | WR | 10 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 79.3 |
| Z.JONES, JAX | WR | 9 | 10.8 | 13.4 | -2.6 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 54.3 |
| J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KC | WR | 9 | 13.1 | 13.4 | -0.3 | 0 | 7.1 | 59 |
| T.HOCKENSON, MIN | TE | 9 | 9.5 | 13.4 | -3.9 | 0 | 6.9 | 48.9 |
| P.FREIERMUTH, PIT | TE | 8 | 10.3 | 13.3 | -3 | 0 | 6.9 | 57.4 |
| K.PITTS, ATL | TE | 9 | 7.6 | 13.1 | -5.5 | 0 | 6 | 87.1 |
| D.SMITH, PHI | WR | 9 | 12.2 | 12.8 | -0.6 | 0 | 6.8 | 53.4 |
| G.DAVIS, BUF | WR | 8 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 0.8 | 0 | 5.9 | 98.8 |
| J.REYNOLDS, DET | WR | 7 | 10.5 | 12.7 | -2.2 | 0 | 6 | 79.4 |
| T.HIGBEE, LA | TE | 9 | 9.2 | 12.5 | -3.3 | 0 | 7.2 | 22.4 |
| K.WALKER, SEA | RB | 9 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 13.9 | 2.7 | -5.6 |
| D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLE | WR | 9 | 9.4 | 12.4 | -3 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 73.3 |
| M.SANDERS, PHI | RB | 9 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 1.2 | 16.3 | 1.6 | -1.3 |
| D.CHARK, DET | WR | 3 | 7.6 | 12.2 | -4.6 | 0 | 6 | 109.3 |
| D.LONDON, ATL | WR | 10 | 9.7 | 12.2 | -2.5 | 0 | 6.2 | 62.3 |
| T.HIGGINS, CIN | WR | 9 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 0.7 | 0 | 6.4 | 65.4 |
| M.CARTER, NYJ | RB | 9 | 10.6 | 12.1 | -1.5 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 |
| J.JEUDY, DEN | WR | 9 | 10.3 | 12 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 75.4 |
| D.NJOKU, CLE | TE | 7 | 11.3 | 11.8 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 6 | 38.7 |
| T.POLLARD, DAL | RB | 9 | 14.1 | 11.8 | 2.3 | 12.1 | 2.8 | -0.4 |
| R.MOSTERT, MIA | RB | 10 | 10.7 | 11.8 | -1.1 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| E.ELLIOTT, DAL | RB | 7 | 11.1 | 11.7 | -0.6 | 15.9 | 1.1 | -2.1 |
| A.DILLON, GB | RB | 10 | 7.7 | 11.6 | -3.9 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| G.KITTLE, SF | TE | 7 | 10.4 | 11.6 | -1.2 | 0 | 5.9 | 35.1 |
| G.EVERETT, LAC | TE | 9 | 9.2 | 11.6 | -2.4 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 41.8 |
| M.GORDON, DEN | RB | 9 | 8.3 | 11.5 | -3.2 | 9.4 | 3 | 2.2 |
| M.JONES, JAX | WR | 9 | 7.6 | 11.5 | -3.9 | 0 | 5.6 | 76.3 |
| C.CLAYPOOL, CHI | WR | 10 | 8.4 | 11.5 | -3.1 | 1 | 5.8 | 53.8 |
| M.HOLLINS, LV | WR | 9 | 9.3 | 11.4 | -2.1 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 79.2 |
| D.SWIFT, DET | RB | 6 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 7 | 4 | 1.5 |
| K.HUNT, CLE | RB | 9 | 9.8 | 11.3 | -1.5 | 9.3 | 2.7 | -0.3 |
| T.BOYD, CIN | WR | 9 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 1.8 | 0 | 5.4 | 52.9 |
| G.PICKENS, PIT | WR | 9 | 8.9 | 11.2 | -2.3 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 74.6 |
| D.GOEDERT, PHI | TE | 9 | 12.6 | 11.1 | 1.5 | 0 | 5.9 | 30.7 |
| E.MITCHELL, SF | RB | 2 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | 12 | 1 | -1.5 |
| A.ROBINSON, LA | WR | 9 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 0 | 5.2 | 49 |
| R.GAGE, TB | WR | 7 | 8.3 | 11.1 | -2.8 | 0 | 5.7 | 31.1 |
| D.MONTGOMERY, CHI | RB | 9 | 9.3 | 10.9 | -1.6 | 13.1 | 1.9 | 0 |
| D.MOONEY, CHI | WR | 10 | 8.9 | 10.9 | -2 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 67.4 |
| D.WALLER, LV | TE | 5 | 7.9 | 10.9 | -3 | 0 | 4.8 | 54.6 |
| G.DULCICH, DEN | TE | 4 | 9.6 | 10.9 | -1.3 | 0 | 5.3 | 70.8 |
| J.MCKISSIC, WAS | RB | 8 | 7 | 10.8 | -3.8 | 2.8 | 5 | 6.3 |
| B.ROBINSON, WAS | RB | 6 | 7.9 | 10.8 | -2.9 | 16 | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| C.PATTERSON, ATL | RB | 6 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
| N.COLLINS, HOU | WR | 7 | 9.2 | 10.7 | -1.5 | 0 | 5.7 | 71.6 |
| R.DOUBS, GB | WR | 9 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 55 |
| N.BROWN, DAL | WR | 8 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 5.3 | 53.5 |
| T.CONKLIN, NYJ | TE | 9 | 9.2 | 10.5 | -1.3 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 38.4 |
| J.WILSON, MIA | RB | 10 | 9.6 | 10.4 | -0.8 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 4 |
| E.ENGRAM, JAX | TE | 10 | 7.9 | 10.3 | -2.4 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 38.9 |
| C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KC | RB | 9 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 0.6 | 8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| P.CAMPBELL, IND | WR | 10 | 9.7 | 10.2 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 29.7 |
| J.LANDRY, NO | WR | 5 | 8.1 | 10.2 | -2.1 | 0 | 5.4 | 57.2 |
| H.HURST, CIN | TE | 9 | 8.9 | 10.2 | -1.3 | 0 | 5.3 | 25.2 |
| M.GALLUP, DAL | WR | 6 | 6.5 | 10 | -3.5 | 0 | 5 | 55.7 |
| M.HARDMAN, KC | WR | 8 | 11.7 | 10 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 34.4 |
| J.DOTSON, WAS | WR | 5 | 10.9 | 10 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 67.8 |
| M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KC | WR | 9 | 8.4 | 9.9 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 60.6 |
| D.HARRIS, NE | RB | 7 | 9.1 | 9.8 | -0.7 | 10.1 | 2 | 0.1 |
| D.SCHULTZ, DAL | TE | 7 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 5.3 | 32.1 |
| E.BENJAMIN, ARI | RB | 10 | 8.6 | 9.7 | -1.1 | 7 | 3.3 | -3.9 |
| C.DAVIS, NYJ | WR | 7 | 9.4 | 9.6 | -0.2 | 0 | 4.9 | 77 |
| K.DRAKE, BAL | RB | 7 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 0.8 | 10.9 | 1.6 | -4.4 |
| K.OSBORN, MIN | WR | 9 | 6.6 | 9.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 43.1 |
| G.EDWARDS, BAL | RB | 2 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 13.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| J.ROBINSON, NYJ | RB | 9 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| J.DOBBINS, BAL | RB | 4 | 8.6 | 9.2 | -0.6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| J.MCKINNON, KC | RB | 9 | 7.2 | 9.1 | -1.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| A.PIERCE, IND | WR | 9 | 7.8 | 9.1 | -1.3 | 0 | 4.7 | 58.1 |
| D.HENDERSON, LA | RB | 9 | 8.1 | 9 | -0.9 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| I.MCKENZIE, BUF | WR | 8 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 25.8 |
| I.SMITH, MIN | TE | 7 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 0 | 4.7 | 22.1 |
| R.WOODS, TEN | WR | 9 | 6.1 | 8.9 | -2.8 | 0 | 4.8 | 39.7 |
| H.RENFROW, LV | WR | 6 | 6.4 | 8.8 | -2.4 | 0 | 4.8 | 27.2 |
| R.BATEMAN, BAL | WR | 6 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 4.7 | 62.3 |
| R.COBB, GB | WR | 6 | 7.3 | 8.7 | -1.4 | 0 | 4.3 | 46.3 |
| R.TONYAN, GB | TE | 10 | 7.7 | 8.7 | -1 | 0 | 4.7 | 24.9 |
| J.JONES, TB | WR | 5 | 8.5 | 8.7 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 62.2 |
| C.BRATE, TB | TE | 6 | 4.4 | 8.5 | -4.1 | 0 | 4 | 25.7 |
| T.ALLGEIER, ATL | RB | 9 | 8.1 | 8.5 | -0.4 | 11.6 | 1 | -2.4 |
| T.MONTGOMERY, NE | WR | 1 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| R.BURKHEAD, HOU | RB | 9 | 6.4 | 8.3 | -1.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| F.MOREAU, LV | TE | 7 | 6.6 | 8.3 | -1.7 | 0 | 4.6 | 28.3 |
| J.JOHNSON, NO | TE | 10 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 4.3 | 34 |
| K.HERBERT, CHI | RB | 10 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 11 | 0.7 | -1.4 |
| D.CARTER, LAC | WR | 9 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 41.8 |
| T.BURKS, TEN | WR | 5 | 5.9 | 8.1 | -2.2 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 43 |
| R.WHITE, TB | RB | 10 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| D.KNOX, BUF | TE | 8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -0.4 | 0 | 4.1 | 30.5 |
| E.MOORE, NYJ | WR | 8 | 4.5 | 7.9 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 51.1 |
| R.PENNY, SEA | RB | 5 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 11.8 | 1 | -2.4 |
| B.SKOWRONEK, LA | WR | 9 | 6.5 | 7.9 | -1.4 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 30.9 |
| D.DUVERNAY, BAL | WR | 9 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 37.9 |
| C.OTTON, TB | TE | 9 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -1 | 0 | 3.9 | 19.9 |
| L.THOMAS, WAS | TE | 7 | 4.7 | 7.4 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.9 | 32.9 |
| N.FANT, SEA | TE | 10 | 6.7 | 7.4 | -0.7 | 0 | 3.8 | 23.2 |
| D.PARKER, NE | WR | 8 | 6.6 | 7.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 3.5 | 58.8 |
| W.ROBINSON, NYG | WR | 5 | 6.4 | 7.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 16.8 |
| K.RAYMOND, DET | WR | 9 | 5.9 | 7 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 38 |
| M.GESICKI, MIA | TE | 10 | 7.5 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 3.5 | 31.4 |
| C.AKERS, LA | RB | 7 | 3.6 | 7 | -3.4 | 9 | 0.9 | 5.6 |
| S.WATKINS, GB | WR | 6 | 5.6 | 6.9 | -1.3 | 0 | 3.3 | 37.7 |
| C.EDMONDS, DEN | RB | 9 | 5.7 | 6.9 | -1.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 4 |
| A.GREEN, ARI | WR | 8 | 3.3 | 6.8 | -3.5 | 0 | 3.1 | 33.3 |
| N.HINES, BUF | RB | 9 | 6.1 | 6.8 | -0.7 | 2 | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| D.FOREMAN, CAR | RB | 10 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 9.5 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| C.KMET, CHI | TE | 10 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 25.9 |
| C.MOORE, HOU | WR | 8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 25 |
| I.LIKELY, BAL | TE | 9 | 5.5 | 6.5 | -1 | 0 | 3.3 | 24.6 |
| R.ANDERSON, ARI | WR | 10 | 3.8 | 6.5 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.4 | 46.3 |
| M.CALLAWAY, NO | WR | 9 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 0 | 3.2 | 39.8 |
| J.JENNINGS, SF | WR | 8 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 3.5 | 23.9 |
| D.ROBINSON, BAL | WR | 9 | 4.1 | 6.2 | -2.1 | 0 | 3.2 | 31.4 |
| H.HENRY, NE | TE | 9 | 5.4 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 0 | 3.1 | 25.3 |
| A.DULIN, IND | WR | 6 | 4.9 | 6.1 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 3 | 35.8 |
| C.WATSON, GB | WR | 7 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 36.1 |
| T.SHERFIELD, MIA | WR | 10 | 5.3 | 6 | -0.7 | 0 | 3.1 | 28.9 |
| K.TONEY, KC | WR | 4 | 6.6 | 6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| K.GRANSON, IND | TE | 10 | 4.7 | 5.9 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 16.8 |
| O.ZACCHEAUS, ATL | WR | 10 | 7 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 32.3 |
| D.HILLIARD, TEN | RB | 8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| J.CROWDER, BUF | WR | 4 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 0 | 3.3 | 30.3 |
| D.JACKSON, IND | RB | 9 | 5.2 | 5.8 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 |
| K.PHILIPS, TEN | WR | 4 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.3 | 25 |
| B.JORDAN, HOU | TE | 5 | 1.8 | 5.6 | -3.8 | 0 | 3.2 | 23.6 |
| M.GASKIN, MIA | RB | 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | -2.3 | 2 | 2.5 | 7 |
| S.PERINE, CIN | RB | 9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| J.WARREN, PIT | RB | 9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | -1.2 |
| D.HOUSTON, DAL | WR | 2 | 1.8 | 5.5 | -3.7 | 0 | 3 | 39.5 |
| K.ALLEN, LAC | WR | 2 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | 28.5 |
| G.DORTCH, ARI | WR | 10 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 13.3 |
| A.MATTISON, MIN | RB | 9 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | -1.2 |
| J.SMITH, NE | TE | 8 | 3.9 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 0 | 3 | 9.5 |
| K.GAINWELL, PHI | RB | 9 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| R.JAMES, NYG | WR | 9 | 4.2 | 5.3 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 23.4 |
| H.BRYANT, CLE | TE | 9 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 17.3 |
| W.DISSLY, SEA | TE | 10 | 7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0 | 2.8 | 11.4 |
| P.DORSETT, HOU | WR | 8 | 3.8 | 5.2 | -1.4 | 0 | 2.6 | 36.5 |
| A.HOOPER, TEN | TE | 9 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 26.9 |
| T.DAVIS-PRICE, SF | RB | 3 | 1.2 | 5.2 | -4 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
| M.GOODWIN, SEA | WR | 8 | 7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 2.6 | 25.9 |
| D.BELLINGER, NYG | TE | 7 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 7.9 |
| S.SMITH, CAR | WR | 10 | 2.4 | 5 | -2.6 | 0 | 2.4 | 21.8 |
| J.KELLEY, LAC | RB | 6 | 4.8 | 5 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0 |
| K.HAMLER, DEN | WR | 7 | 3.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 2 | 52.4 |
| N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TEN | WR | 9 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0 | 2.6 | 40.3 |
| K.BOURNE, NE | WR | 8 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 |
| N.AGHOLOR, NE | WR | 8 | 5 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0 | 2.6 | 32.6 |
| S.MICHEL, LAC | RB | 9 | 2.8 | 4.8 | -2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| D.WILLIAMS, ARI | RB | 6 | 3.5 | 4.8 | -1.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | -4 |
| D.PETTIS, CHI | WR | 10 | 4.5 | 4.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 22.6 |
| I.PACHECO, KC | RB | 9 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 6.9 | 0.3 | -1.7 |
| J.COOK, BUF | RB | 9 | 4.2 | 4.3 | -0.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 4.9 |
| M.BOONE, DEN | RB | 7 | 2.9 | 4.2 | -1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| N.GRAY, KC | TE | 9 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 13.7 |
| C.BEASLEY, TB | WR | 2 | 2.9 | 4.1 | -1.2 | 0 | 2.5 | 6 |
| B.BERRIOS, NYJ | WR | 9 | 4.8 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 8.3 |
| Q.WATKINS, PHI | WR | 9 | 3.9 | 4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 21.8 |
| T.HILL, NO | TE | 9 | 9.2 | 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| D.SILLS, NYG | WR | 8 | 2.7 | 4 | -1.3 | 0 | 2.1 | 16.6 |
| A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DEN | TE | 5 | 2.4 | 3.9 | -1.5 | 0 | 2.2 | 5 |
| J.AGNEW, JAX | WR | 8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 14.9 |
| T.TREMBLE, CAR | TE | 10 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.9 | 18.2 |
| B.PERRIMAN, TB | WR | 8 | 2.7 | 3.8 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 2 | 27.5 |
| C.REYNOLDS, DET | RB | 8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1 |
| T.COLEMAN, SF | RB | 4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 6 |
| O.HOWARD, HOU | TE | 9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | -0.2 | 0 | 1.8 | 21 |
| Z.MOSS, IND | RB | 6 | 2.9 | 3.6 | -0.7 | 3 | 1.3 | -0.8 |
| M.ALIE-COX, IND | TE | 10 | 4 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.8 | 8.5 |
| J.HILL, BAL | RB | 7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| R.MCCLOUD, SF | WR | 9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 1.8 | 29.3 |
| D.BELL, CLE | WR | 9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.8 | 16 |
| J.WOODS, IND | TE | 9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0 | 1.4 | 19.2 |
| E.SAUBERT, DEN | TE | 9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.7 | 17.4 |
| A.ABDULLAH, LV | RB | 9 | 2.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| M.BREIDA, NYG | RB | 9 | 2.3 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 4 |
| I.THOMAS, CAR | TE | 10 | 2.4 | 3.1 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.8 | 5.5 |
| K.GOLLADAY, NYG | WR | 5 | 0.8 | 3.1 | -2.3 | 0 | 1.6 | 14.6 |
| J.BATES, WAS | TE | 9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | -0.9 | 0 | 1.9 | 8.1 |
| A.ISABELLA, ARI | WR | 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 0 | 1.7 | 23.3 |
| S.MOORE, KC | WR | 9 | 1.7 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.6 | 15.4 |
| Z.GENTRY, PIT | TE | 9 | 2.4 | 3 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| J.MUNDT, MIN | TE | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| J.WINFREE, GB | WR | 3 | 0.9 | 3 | -2.1 | 0 | 1.3 | 17.3 |
| K.HODGE, ATL | WR | 10 | 3.7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.6 | 18.5 |
| J.FERGUSON, DAL | TE | 9 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.3 | 7.7 |
| B.POWELL, LA | WR | 9 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5.3 |
| C.PARKINSON, SEA | TE | 10 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.6 | 11 |
| T.MCKITTY, LAC | TE | 9 | 1.3 | 2.9 | -1.6 | 0 | 1.4 | 5.3 |
| C.OKONKWO, TEN | TE | 9 | 3 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 13.2 |
| P.HENDERSHOT, DAL | TE | 9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.4 | 8.2 |
| A.TRAUTMAN, NO | TE | 8 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.5 | 10.3 |
| J.GUYTON, LAC | WR | 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 38.3 |
| K.WILLIAMS, LA | RB | 2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 |
| D.BROWN, WAS | WR | 8 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0 | 1.4 | 31.3 |
| T.HOMER, SEA | RB | 6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| T.HUDSON, NYG | TE | 9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.6 | 11.1 |
| C.SIMS, WAS | WR | 10 | 1.1 | 2.6 | -1.5 | 0 | 1.3 | 18.4 |
| B.SCOTT, PHI | RB | 7 | 2.1 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Z.PASCAL, PHI | WR | 9 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 7.4 |
| J.JACKSON, DET | RB | 9 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| D.ESKRIDGE, SEA | WR | 10 | 1.4 | 2.5 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 5.4 |
| J.FORTSON, KC | TE | 8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.9 | 4 |
| T.CLEVELAND, DEN | WR | 6 | 0.8 | 2.5 | -1.7 | 0 | 1.2 | 16.5 |
| J.OLIVER, BAL | TE | 9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 1.1 | 3.4 |
| A.WILLIAMS, ATL | RB | 10 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -2.2 |
| B.PRINGLE, CHI | WR | 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 1.3 | 21 |
| J.PROCHE, BAL | WR | 7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.1 | 10.4 |
| R.CRACRAFT, MIA | WR | 7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.9 | 6.6 |
| C.UZOMAH, NYJ | TE | 8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| D.SMYTHE, MIA | TE | 9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 1 | 3 |
| G.SWAIM, TEN | TE | 9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| J.DEGUARA, GB | TE | 10 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| B.BOLDEN, LV | RB | 8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 3.3 |
| J.HASTY, JAX | RB | 10 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1 | -3.7 |
| C.HUBBARD, CAR | RB | 8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| J.KUMEROW, BUF | WR | 6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.2 | 15 |
| A.BACCELLIA, ARI | WR | 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.2 | 11 |
| C.WILSON, MIA | WR | 9 | 1.6 | 2 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 11.3 |
| T.WALLACE, BAL | WR | 6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 14.5 |
| T.ATWELL, LA | WR | 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 30.8 |
| D.OGUNBOWALE, HOU | RB | 9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 1 | 1.9 |
| M.STRACHAN, IND | WR | 9 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.6 |
| D.SAMPLE, CIN | TE | 2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| A.SCHWARTZ, CLE | WR | 8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 10.4 |
| B.WRIGHT, DET | TE | 9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| T.JOHNSON, NYJ | RB | 9 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1 |
| D.ARNOLD, JAX | TE | 10 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| A.BECK, DEN | TE | 8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 6 |
| T.EBNER, CHI | RB | 10 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| J.STOLL, PHI | TE | 9 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| D.DALLAS, SEA | RB | 10 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| M.DAVIS, BAL | RB | 7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | -1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| A.FIRKSER, ATL | TE | 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 6.6 |
| R.GRIFFIN, CHI | TE | 8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 5.9 |
| S.FEHOKO, DAL | WR | 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.8 | 10.2 |
| E.TOMLINSON, DEN | TE | 9 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| R.RODGERS, LAC | TE | 7 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -1.2 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| B.EDWARDS, ATL | WR | 7 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 5.6 |
| T.KROFT, SF | TE | 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.8 | 9.8 |
| Q.CEPHUS, DET | WR | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| A.RODGERS, GB | WR | 10 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| B.ELLEFSON, MIN | TE | 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 |
| D.MILNE, WAS | WR | 10 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| G.RICCI, CAR | TE | 10 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHI | WR | 6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| C.MANHERTZ, JAX | TE | 10 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| J.SMITH, NYJ | WR | 9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.7 |
| M.WASHINGTON, DEN | WR | 9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 6.2 |
| J.REAGOR, MIN | WR | 9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1 |
| S.ZYLSTRA, DET | TE | 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.4 | 3.8 |
| P.HESSE, ATL | TE | 10 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.6 | 4.4 |
| C.HOLLISTER, TEN | WR | 9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.6 | 8.7 |
| M.WILCOX, CIN | TE | 9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| L.HUMPHREY, NE | WR | 6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.5 |
| H.HASKINS, TEN | RB | 9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | -1.2 |
| R.DWELLEY, SF | TE | 9 | 2.2 | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.6 | 7.7 |
| T.DAVIS, GB | TE | 10 | 0.7 | 1 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| D.WILLIAMS, ATL | RB | 1 | 0.2 | 1 | -0.8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| A.ROGERS, WAS | TE | 10 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| M.LEWIS, GB | TE | 10 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| T.MCBRIDE, ARI | TE | 9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| K.KIEFT, TB | TE | 10 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 4 |
| B.HOPKINS, LA | TE | 6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 3 |
| D.FELTON, CLE | RB | 5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| D.HARTY, NO | WR | 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| N.TOGIAI, PHI | TE | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 |
| J.HORSTED, LV | TE | 9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| T.TAYLOR, CIN | WR | 9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| C.EVANS, CIN | RB | 9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.8 |
| Z.WHITE, LV | RB | 9 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| K.TURPIN, DAL | WR | 9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| J.TONGES, CHI | TE | 3 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.3 |
| G.BRIGHTWELL, NYG | RB | 9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| T.SWEENEY, BUF | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| J.WILLIAMS, WAS | RB | 6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.JONES, JAX | WR | 10 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| S.MORGAN, CIN | WR | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |
| P.HART, SEA | WR | 7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1 |
| J.DARDEN, TB | WR | 10 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1 |
| M.BOYKIN, PIT | WR | 9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 5.1 |
| C.WOERNER, SF | TE | 9 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 4.8 |
| L.FARRELL, JAX | TE | 10 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 |
| S.ANDERSON, ARI | TE | 10 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| G.OLSZEWSKI, PIT | WR | 8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| J.NAILOR, MIN | WR | 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.9 |
| D.TURNER, LV | WR | 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| J.MASON, SF | RB | 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
WEEK 11 BUY LOW
KENNETH WALKER
Kenneth Walker cooled off in Week 10, rushing for only 17 yards against the stout Bucs run defense. He still won’t be cheap to buy, but last week’s game might give you slightly more of a chance.
The main knock on Walker coming out of Michigan State was that he did not catch the ball in college. He had only 19 receptions in three college seasons. We typically want running backs to have at least one college season with at least 10% of their team’s targets, and Walker’s best season was under 5%, so it was a fair criticism.
However, Walker had easily the best receiving game of his career last week, catching six of eight passes for 55 yards. He also played a season-high 87% of the snaps. He had four targets the week before, and his passing game production seems to be trending upward. Walker’s talent running the ball is clear, and if he can continue to stay involved in the passing game, the RB1 overall ROS is within his range of outcomes.
The above graphic shows Walker’s stats over the previous five games (since he took over the starting job). In the first three games as the starter, he only saw five targets in three games, which is hurting his XFP average. In the past two games, he had 12 total targets and averaged 22.3 XFP, which would be behind only Austin Ekeler if he continued that pace for a full season.
I would be interested in pivoting to Walker from someone like Nick Chubb and likely getting a piece back on top.
DAVID MONTGOMERY
I completely understand that David Montgomery has been awful for fantasy this season and is generally a gross player to own. I only suggest following this recommendation if you are hurting at running back and need a cheap option at the position. He could continue to be bad, but he should be extremely cheap to acquire and may have some hidden upside.
The main reason Montgomery is on this list is that backup Khalil Herbert has been placed on IR and will miss at least the next four games. Herbert plays about a third of the snaps when Montgomery is healthy. In the eight games Montgomery started and finished, he is averaging 12.1 XFP to Herbert’s 6.2 XFP.
Montgomery has been a workhorse running back and handled around 85% of the snaps when healthy in the previous two years. This injury paves the way for him to return to that role and potentially increase his fantasy ceiling. Montgomery probably won’t be a league-winner like he was in 2020, but averaging roughly 15 XFP per game on increased usage until Herbert returns seems realistic.
PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS
- Mike Evans
- Diontae Johnson – If you can get him super cheap and need a WR, he is averaging 19.0 XFP and might have a chance to be productive in the second half of the season.
- Ja’Marr Chase
WEEK 11 SELL HIGH
JAYLEN WADDLE
Jaylen Waddle is currently outpacing his XFP numbers by more than any other receiver in the league. He is a very good player, and the Dolphins’ offense will likely continue to be efficient. I am not at all suggesting that Waddle’s production will fall off a cliff, but there are a few players around his value range that I would rather bet on.
Waddle’s 14.3 XFP per game ranks 32nd among all wide receivers this season. If you remove all games where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed time due to injury, his XFP average jumps slightly to 15.4, which ties Mike Williams for WR24 in XFP. Teammate Tyreek Hill is the clear alpha receiver in the offense, leading the team with 21.7 XFP and 10.6 targets per game.
Despite the XFP numbers, Waddle ranks ahead of both Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in the FantasyPros full-PPR ROS ranks as of 11/16/2022. Hopkins is currently averaging 21.8 XFP, and Amon-Ra is averaging 19.4 XFP when looking at only his healthy games. I would try to pivot to either of those receivers even if I had to give up a smaller piece to complete the trade.
PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH
- Nick Chubb – (for another elite player, but I would still move him in full-PPR if I could tier up to CMC, Ekeler, Saquon, or Henry)
- Tony Pollard
- Brandon Aiyuk
