Fantasy Football Week 5 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Jonathan Taylor, Sell Rashaad Penny - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Week 5 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Jonathan Taylor, Sell Rashaad Penny

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFCARTGTAIR YDS
C.KUPP, LAWR426.625.80.70.313.5103.8
J.MIXON, CINRB414.325.4-11.220.86-6
D.ADAMS, LVWR418.324.6-6.40.511.8109.5
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR421.422.3-0.90.310.589.5
M.BROWN, ARIWR41922.1-3.1011.3105
T.HILL, MIAWR422.821.61.20.510.8113.3
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR324.420.93.51.31165.3
J.CHASE, CINWR416.120.7-4.60.810.3100
S.DIGGS, BUFWR423.920.73.2010106
C.LAMB, DALWR416.119.9-3.80.310.5110
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB421.519.91.6214.3-3.3
A.BROWN, PHIWR417.919.5-1.709.5106.3
C.OLAVE, NOWR415.119.3-4.209168.3
C.SUTTON, DENWR416.219.2-30.38.8105
C.SAMUEL, WASWR415.819.1-3.329.337.8
G.WILSON, NYJWR414.319.1-4.80.39.590.3
J.TAYLOR, INDRB412.619-6.520.54-2.5
M.ANDREWS, BALTE417.118.8-1.70.39103.5
M.PITTMAN, INDWR316.118.7-2.509.355.7
A.EKELER, LACRB419.518.60.911.87.3-10.8
B.HALL, NYJRB413.518.4-4.99.5734
D.JOHNSON, PITWR411.718.2-6.50.59.3101.8
T.KELCE, KCTE419.618.11.50.38.567.3
J.MEYERS, NEWR214.418-3.70.59.5102.5
B.COOKS, HOUWR411.917.9-60979
D.METCALF, SEAWR413.917.8-408.897.3
C.MCCAFFREY, CARRB41817.70.314.85.51.5
C.KIRK, JAXWR417.817.700.3976.8
D.HENRY, TENRB416.417.5-1.119.330.5
A.GIBSON, WASRB413.117.3-4.213.543.3
J.JACOBS, LVRB416.717.3-0.717.83.5-0.8
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB410.517.3-6.8125.5-6
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB413.917-3.115.54.8-6.8
J.WADDLE, MIAWR419.716.92.80.58.897
T.HIGBEE, LATE412.616.9-4.309.532
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB417.916.71.215.828.3
N.CHUBB, CLERB421.416.74.720.82-4
D.SAMUEL, SFWR41615.90.157.325.5
Z.ERTZ, ARITE413.515.8-2.307.843.8
M.THOMAS, NOWR31715.71.307.379
A.KAMARA, NORB27.515.5-812.55.513.5
J.CONNER, ARIRB410.815.5-4.811.84.55
M.EVANS, TBWR319.215.53.70792
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR413.815.5-1.708.598
D.LONDON, ATLWR413.815.5-1.70883.5
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB41215.4-3.48.55.5-1
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR311.515.3-3.80875
A.THIELEN, MINWR412.315.1-2.80765.8
T.HOCKENSON, DETTE41615.10.907.555
Z.JONES, JAXWR314.115.1-10.3850
A.COOPER, CLEWR413.715-1.307.881
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB418.914.84.1113.5-2
K.HUNT, CLERB412.614.7-2.111.53.3-1.3
A.DILLON, GBRB410.814.6-3.914.53.52.3
M.SANDERS, PHIRB416.314.51.818.32.3-1.5
N.HARRIS, PITRB411.314.4-3.214.52.80.5
J.DOBBINS, BALRB214.214.4-0.21031.5
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR41414.3-0.307.894.8
H.RENFROW, LVWR2814.2-6.20825
D.PIERCE, HOURB414.414.20.215.32.5-2.3
A.JONES, GBRB415.7141.712.34-1.5
N.BROWN, DALWR412.914-1.106.871.3
D.COOK, MINRB411.413.8-2.415.83.3-4.8
D.SMITH, PHIWR412.713.8-1.206.879.8
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE411.613.8-2.207.561.5
D.WALLER, LVTE49.913.7-3.80668.3
T.HIGGINS, CINWR415.913.42.40777.5
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR411.413.3-1.90.36.8104
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE411.513.3-1.807.321.8
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR413.313.300680
D.MOORE, CARWR4913.2-4.317.360.5
M.CARTER, NYJRB49.413.2-3.8104.8-1.5
J.WILSON, SFRB410.613.1-2.6151.85
E.MOORE, NYJWR48.513-4.60.56.586.5
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB49.912.9-34.35.89
D.HARRIS, NERB413.112.80.313.32.30
J.ROBINSON, JAXRB414.812.8215.51.8-1.8
M.HOLLINS, LVWR412.612.8-0.20673.3
C.DAVIS, NYJWR413.312.70.606.3102.8
R.STEVENSON, NERB41112.4-1.4113.54.5
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR49.912.4-2.506.859.8
G.EVERETT, LACTE412.312.4-0.106.550.3
D.CHARK, DETWR37.612.2-4.606109.3
R.GAGE, TBWR410.112.2-2.106.326.3
J.DOTSON, WASWR413.112.110.35.582.5
C.GODWIN, TBWR29.712-2.306.529
T.POLLARD, DALRB49.112-2.99.53.3-0.3
B.AIYUK, SFWR49.712-2.40.35.556.3
D.NJOKU, CLETE410.411.7-1.30.35.827.3
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR46.511.7-5.20655
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB49.211.7-2.54.55.37
R.MOORE, ARIWR13.711.7-81558
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR47.411.5-4.10.35.862.8
D.SWIFT, DETRB316.911.45.69.342.3
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB49.111.4-2.3151.8-3.8
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB414.711.33.415.51.85
K.PITTS, ATLTE46.311.3-5.105.586.5
A.LAZARD, GBWR313.811.22.605.778.3
K.HERBERT, CHIRB414.611.23.413.31.3-2.5
C.CLAYPOOL, PITWR45.911.1-5.21.8553
J.PALMER, LACWR49.111.1-20.35.537
R.DOUBS, GBWR412.111.110.3640
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB13.311-7.71500
G.PICKENS, PITWR46.910.9-405.396
J.JEUDY, DENWR410.410.8-0.40.35.361.5
M.GORDON, DENRB47.210.8-3.69.32.51.8
T.BOYD, CINWR411.810.61.104.855
G.DORTCH, ARIWR411.910.61.20631.8
C.BRATE, TBTE45.310.5-5.304.829.5
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR412.210.41.80.35.334.8
R.ANDERSON, CARWR48.410.4-2.105.560
H.HURST, CINTE47.610.3-2.705.318.3
A.GREEN, ARIWR33.310.2-6.904.338.3
M.JONES, JAXWR46.910.2-3.304.866
R.BATEMAN, BALWR411.310.21.105.579.3
A.ROBINSON, LAWR46.110.2-404.546.3
C.EDMONDS, MIARB410.310.20.272.87
R.WOODS, TENWR48.99.9-0.90547.3
N.COLLINS, HOUWR47.99.8-1.905.377.3
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB47.69.7-2.192.87.8
R.MOSTERT, MIARB46.69.7-3.110.32.30.8
J.LANDRY, NOWR48.59.7-1.205.356.5
I.SMITH, MINTE46.39.6-3.30530.5
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB38.29.5-1.3122-1.3
D.GOEDERT, PHITE411.59.42.10515.8
L.THOMAS, WASTE47.49.4-20541.8
N.HINES, INDRB47.49.4-2.124.85
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE359.1-4.105.327.7
G.DAVIS, BUFWR39.39.10.204.758.3
M.GALLUP, DALWR110.491.40329
R.JAMES, NYGWR47.39-1.80.5544.5
D.HENDERSON, LARB47.98.9-18.82.5-2.5
R.PENNY, SEARB411.78.92.812.81.3-3
G.KITTLE, SFTE25.68.8-3.204.516.5
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE46.28.8-2.60.3421.5
A.PIERCE, INDWR378.6-1.604.357.7
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR49.68.31.304.562
A.DULIN, INDWR46.68.3-1.70.34.349.3
E.BENJAMIN, ARIRB46.88.3-1.65.53.3-5.3
C.AKERS, LARB44.98.3-3.49.812
D.PARKER, NEWR48.28.200476
J.JOHNSON, NOTE45.28-2.804.344
J.MCKINNON, KCRB45.18-2.94.32-0.5
D.KNOX, BUFTE45.87.9-2.104.326
K.OSBORN, MINWR47.27.9-0.70.3443.3
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR36.17.9-1.80.7467
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR411.87.64.10.53.335.5
D.MOONEY, CHIWR457.5-2.50462.8
J.JONES, TBWR26.77.5-0.813.580.5
T.BURKS, TENWR467.5-1.50.5448.8
K.ALLEN, LACWR110.67.33.30452
M.INGRAM, NORB45.77.3-1.67.51.5-3.5
S.SMITH, CARWR41.97.3-5.403.326.5
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR46.57.2-0.70439
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB45.87.1-1.3421.8
J.JENNINGS, SFWR44.36.9-2.603.828.5
K.GRANSON, INDTE45.46.8-1.403.820
R.TONYAN, GBTE47.46.70.70413.3
H.BRYANT, CLETE44.36.6-2.303.526.5
M.HARDMAN, KCWR45.26.6-1.40.3331.5
K.WALKER, SEARB34.46.6-2.25.32.3-3.7
K.BOURNE, NEWR46.16.5-0.40.3341.5
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE48.76.52.203.516.8
D.CARTER, LACWR47.86.51.30.33.540
S.WATKINS, GBWR28.66.42.103.536
K.PHILIPS, TENWR33.46.4-303.728.7
R.COBB, GBWR46.36.300339.3
D.HILLIARD, TENRB3116.34.71.337
K.DRAKE, BALRB23.26.3-3.19.50.5-1.5
C.MOORE, HOUWR44.76.3-1.60317.5
C.WATSON, GBWR36.46.30.10.73.326
R.WHITE, TBRB44.76.3-1.62.82.31.8
N.FANT, SEATE45.46.1-0.702.810.8
A.MATTISON, MINRB47.16151.8-1.3
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR47.95.9202.534.5
S.MICHEL, LACRB43.55.9-2.55.51.52
J.CROWDER, BUFWR435.8-2.803.330.3
P.BROWN, HOUTE34.75.7-103.320
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR44.55.7-1.20316.5
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR43.95.7-1.802.829
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB36.15.70.58.70.7-1.7
W.DISSLY, SEATE410.45.64.80314.8
I.LIKELY, BALTE42.55.6-3.102.812.8
I.THOMAS, CARTE43.65.5-1.90319
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
S.PERINE, CINRB45.75.40.332.315.3
D.ROBINSON, BALWR43.85.4-1.602.521.5
J.SMITH, NETE43.25.2-202.811.8
Z.MOSS, BUFRB445.2-1.242-1.3
F.MOREAU, LVTE34.55.2-0.70316.7
B.JORDAN, HOUTE21.95.2-3.30321.5
J.KELLEY, LACRB43.25.1-1.93.320.3
J.AGNEW, JAXWR46.551.50.82.328.8
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB44.24.9-0.73.31.3-3.5
D.SILLS, NYGWR43.14.9-1.802.522.5
I.PACHECO, KCRB454.70.3700
J.COOK, BUFRB42.94.6-1.83.31.84.3
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE42.64.5-1.902.56.8
N.GRAY, KCTE43.74.5-0.80.3213
J.BATES, WASTE42.44.5-2.202.87.3
M.GESICKI, MIATE45.34.40.802.517
T.TREMBLE, CARTE42.34.4-2.10212.8
K.RAYMOND, DETWR41.64.3-2.70.3235.3
K.TONEY, NYGWR22.24.3-2.10.51.5-3.5
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR42.94.2-1.302.330.5
O.HOWARD, HOUTE46.14.21.802.334.8
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE45.54.21.302.35.5
C.BEASLEY, TBWR22.94.1-1.302.56
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR44.140.10.8210
H.HENRY, NETE42.34-1.802.320.5
J.HILL, BALRB44.640.64.81-0.8
A.HOOPER, TENTE42.54-1.502.316.3
C.KMET, CHITE42.73.9-1.20211.5
J.MUNDT, MINTE43.53.9-0.402.35.3
B.BOLDEN, LVRB35.33.81.521.73.7
J.WARREN, PITRB42.73.8-1.23.51-1.3
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR42.53.7-1.20.31.89.3
G.SWAIM, TENTE443.60.401.84
M.CALLAWAY, NOWR43.93.60.301.823.8
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR42.33.6-1.201.820.5
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR42.33.6-1.30222
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR22.43.4-101.59
C.OTTON, TBTE32.43.4-10211.7
T.HILL, NOTE38.33.3540.30.7
J.FORTSON, KCTE43.83.30.500.82.3
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR43.73.20.50123.8
K.HODGE, ATLWR43.63.20.501.821
B.SCOTT, PHIRB33.43.10.23.30.30.7
C.PARKINSON, SEATE45.93.12.801.817.8
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR31.43.1-1.701.723.3
E.MITCHELL, SFRB14.131.1600
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR41.13-201.513.5
M.BOONE, DENRB41.33-1.70.81.38.8
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR20.63-2.401.517.5
E.SAUBERT, DENTE43.22.90.301.526.5
M.STRACHAN, INDWR42.22.9-0.701.518.8
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR33.52.90.501.715.7
J.GUYTON, LACWR32.82.8001.338.3
T.HOMER, SEARB332.80.31.31.3-1.7
B.POWELL, LAWR422.8-0.80.81.30
J.WINFREE, GBWR21.42.8-1.501.525.5
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE21.42.8-1.401.522.5
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR43.82.81017.8
T.EBNER, CHIRB41.32.7-1.530.81.5
D.SMYTHE, MIATE42.32.6-0.301.56
K.HAMLER, DENWR32.22.6-0.400.726
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR41.62.6-101.513.8
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB432.60.42.80.81
J.WOODS, INDTE44.92.52.40111.8
P.DORSETT, HOUWR30.82.3-1.501.312
T.MCKITTY, LACTE41.72.3-0.601.34
S.MOORE, KCWR42.32.3001.316.3
T.HUDSON, NYGTE41.82.3-0.501.313
D.BELL, CLEWR42.22.3-0.101.318
T.JONES, NORB222.2-0.211-1
M.DAVIS, BALRB40.42.1-1.71.800
C.OKONKWO, TENTE43.62.11.60.319.8
D.BROWN, WASWR40.41.9-1.50117.3
P.HESSE, ATLTE41.61.9-0.3017.5
C.WILSON, MIAWR31.61.9-0.30.318.3
T.KROFT, SFTE211.9-0.90116.5
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR31.81.9-0.20119.3
D.PETTIS, CHIWR431.91.10114.3
A.TRAUTMAN, NOTE42.21.80.3015.8
C.CONLEY, HOUWR201.8-1.8019
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR41.31.8-0.50.311.5
L.CAGER, NYJTE101.8-1.80114
A.BECK, DENTE41.81.8-0.10.30.85.8
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
S.FEHOKO, DALWR41.41.8-0.50112.8
J.REAGOR, MINWR41.21.8-0.60.313
C.SIMS, WASWR401.7-1.700.824.8
R.DWELLEY, SFTE43.21.71.5018.5
M.BREIDA, NYGRB411.7-0.72.50.3-0.5
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR11.51.7-0.2015
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR411.7-0.7016.8
J.FERGUSON, DALTE41.31.7-0.5013.5
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE31.81.70.1014
Z.GENTRY, PITTE41.81.60.200.8-0.5
T.DAVIS, GBTE41.51.6-0.1010.3
H.HASKINS, TENRB41.21.6-0.42.50.3-1.5
J.JACKSON, DETRB42.21.50.60.50.5-2
J.OLIVER, BALTE42.21.40.800.5-0.8
T.WALLACE, BALWR40.51.4-0.900.810.8
T.ATWELL, LAWR301.4-1.400.719.3
D.MILNE, WASWR411.4-0.500.86
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE41.21.4-0.200.85.5
J.STOLL, PHITE40.41.4-1.100.50.3
Q.CEPHUS, DETWR40.91.3-0.400.83.5
D.FELTON, CLERB30.31.3-10.30.73
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE41.41.30.100.83.8
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB40.81.3-0.400.53.5
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB41.81.30.510.5-2.5
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE41.81.30.600.84.3
D.DALLAS, SEARB41.51.20.20.80.50.8
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB40.41.2-0.900.80.3
J.DEGUARA, GBTE41.21.2000.82.8
G.RICCI, CARTE41.31.2000.82.5
M.WILCOX, CINTE41.51.20.300.81
J.HASTY, JAXRB41.11.2-0.100.8-2.3
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR41.21.10.10.50.55
A.RODGERS, GBWR401.1-1.10.500
D.HARTY, NOWR31.11.1000.71.7
R.RODGERS, LACTE401-100.30.3
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR40.81-0.20.30.56
J.SMITH, NYJWR40.70.9-0.300.58.3
C.EVANS, CINRB40.40.9-0.600.57.3
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE41.40.90.500.50.8
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE400.9-0.900.30.8
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
J.WILLIAMS, WASRB41.40.80.61.500
J.DARDEN, TBWR40.90.60.30.30.33.8
D.FOREMAN, CARRB40.40.6-0.21.300
M.BOYKIN, PITWR400.6-0.600.38.8
Z.WHITE, LVRB40.70.601.300
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE30.50.6-0.100.31.7
J.TONGES, CHITE300.6-0.600.34.3
C.HUBBARD, CARRB40.70.50.2100
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR40.80.50.300.35.5
B.WRIGHT, DETTE40.90.50.400.33.8
K.KIEFT, TBTE40.70.50.300.34
C.WOERNER, SFTE400.5-0.500.35
J.NAILOR, MINWR40.60.50.100.33.3
C.MANHERTZ, JAXTE40.30.4-0.100.3-0.8
P.HART, SEAWR40.60.40.200.31.8
A.ROGERS, WASTE40.80.40.400.3-1
S.ANDERSON, ARITE40.30.4-0.100.30.5
I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHIWR400.4-0.400.31
T.JONES, JAXWR400.4-0.400.3-0.5
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB40.40.30.10.500
D.JACKSON, INDRB4-0.10.3-0.30.500
G.OLSZEWSKI, PITWR4-0.10.3-0.30.500
K.TURPIN, DALWR40.10.2-0.10.300
J.MASON, SFRB40.20.10.10.300

WEEK 5 BUY-LOW

JONATHAN TAYLOR

2022 Stats
2021 Stats

It’s rare to have the opportunity to buy the consensus No .1 overall pick in fantasy, but you might have a small window in some leagues. Taylor has drastically underperformed his draft capital so far this year and suffered an ankle injury that has his availability for Week 5 in question.

The results have been bad, but Taylor’s workload numbers this season look almost identical to 2021. In fact, he’s seeing 0.6 more carries and 0.9 more targets than he did last season. The difference in production is primarily due to a lack of touchdowns and long runs.

Taylor scored 20 total touchdowns in 17 games last season compared to just one touchdown in four games this season. That’s nearly 5.5 fewer fantasy points per game from touchdowns compared to last season.

Taylor also had 19 plays that gained 20 or more yards in 2021, slightly over one per game. He gained an average of 38.7 yards on these plays, which is equal to about 4.3 fantasy points per game just from big play yardage (not including touchdowns, they are accounted for separately in the previous paragraph). This season, he has only one play over 20 yards (he gained 21 yards), or about 0.5 points per game from big play yardage. This means he was scoring 3.8 additional points from big plays in 2021 compared to 2022.

It turns out that his current 12.6 PPG plus 5.5 points from touchdowns plus 3.8 points from big plays exactly equals his 21.9 PPG from last season, so he has essentially been the same player with the same workload minus the touchdowns and big plays. The Colts offensive line has fallen from 9th in 2021 PFF run blocking grade to 19th in 2022, but Taylor is undoubtedly suffering from some negative variance.

As long as arguably the best running back in the league is seeing an elite workload, I will bet on him to find a way to make big plays and score touchdowns. He probably won’t score 20 touchdowns again, but I’d still take Taylor over any running back not named Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley. Edwin Porras, DPT and Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT don’t recommend selling Taylor due to the injury, so now is a great time to buy a player with league-winning upside.

TYLER HIGBEE

Tyler Higbee has put up elite numbers before when given the opportunity. From Weeks 13-17 in 2019, he averaged 8.6 targets, 104.4 yards, and 21.4 fantasy points and won many fantasy championships that year. He shockingly earned that many targets in an offense featuring Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks.

While he has never been able to replicate that magical stretch, Higbee is quietly in an excellent situation this season. He currently has a 25.3% target share as the clear number-two option in the Rams’ passing game. That target share is elite, and according to top tight end expert Andrew Cooper, being a top-two option in the offense is critical for elite tight end production.

Allen Robinson has been a complete no-show, and he appears to be the only threat to Higbee’s target share. I wouldn’t be surprised if Higbee’s final target share falls a little below 25% for the season, but he is currently leading all tight ends in targets and could regress considerably while still maintaining elite volume. He is also currently the TE5 overall despite not scoring a single touchdown.

Higbee was not highly drafted, so it’s possible that his manager has more than one viable tight end. If you need an upgrade at the position, Higbee combines a high floor, high ceiling, and potentially affordable cost.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS

WEEK 5 SELL-HIGH

RASHAAD PENNY

Rashaad Penny exploded for 28.7 fantasy points on 17 carries for 151 yards and two scores in Week 4, but that production doesn’t appear to be sustainable going forward.

First, Penny is a complete non-factor in the passing game, with only five total targets through four games. The Seahawks don’t appear to trust Penny catching the ball and prefer to use other backs as teammates Kenneth Walker, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas combine for 4.1 targets per game.

Penny doesn’t make up for the lack of passing work with elite rushing volume either, as he is only averaging 12.8 carries per game. His 17 carries per game were likely higher than normal because Seattle was in the lead for most of the game rather than a decision to involve Penny specifically. His role in the offense appears relatively stable as he has seen exactly 69% of snaps in three of four games.

Finally, rookie teammate Kenneth Walker is a talented second-round pick who will gradually take work away from Penny as the season goes on. Walker’s slow start is expected as he is a rookie who missed part of training camp due to injury, but rookies are generally more involved in the second half of the season. You’re probably not going to get a great running back in return for Penny, but I would try to get a startable wide receiver or potentially a tight end like Higbee if it makes sense for your team.

DALLAS GOEDERT

As stated in the Higbee section, we want our tight ends to be top-two targets in their offense. On average, only about one NFL team per season has three players each earn 100 or more targets, and a tight end is rarely included in the top three for those teams. It’s virtually impossible for the third option in an offense to earn enough targets to be difference-making in fantasy as Cooper shows, and sure enough, Goedert is struggling to earn targets as the offense’s third option.

Goedert’s five targets per game rank only 14th at the position. Teammates AJ Brown (9.5) and Devonta Smith (6.8) are more talented receivers and clearly ahead of him in the offense, so it’s hard to see the situation changing barring injury. If either Brown or Smith does get injured later in the season, I think Goedert has considerable upside and would look to buy him back, but he is unlikely to see enough targets to be a difference-maker in his current role.

For the reasons outlined in this article, I believe Higbee is a better bet at tight end as long as Smith and Brown are healthy, and you might be able to get Higbee for Goedert plus a bench piece. Or if you already have two usable tight ends, moving Goedert for depth at another position likely makes sense.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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