Fantasy Football Week 8 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2022): Buy Chris Godwin, James Conner

Improve your team for the second half of the fantasy season.

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy low and sell high this week.

PlayerPOSGPPGXFPDIFCARTGTAIR YDS
D.HOPKINS, ARIWR120.326.6-6.3014131
C.KUPP, LAWR624.823.11.70.71288.2
A.EKELER, LACRB72522.62.412.98.7-7.3
T.HILL, MIAWR721.222.1-0.90.611.1119.6
D.ADAMS, LVWR619.721.9-2.20.310.5114
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR622.121.70.40.210.581.8
J.MIXON, CINRB714.821.7-6.917.45.1-3
J.CHASE, CINWR720.221.3-1.10.610.694.9
S.DIGGS, BUFWR625.121.23.9010.7109.2
M.BROWN, ARIWR618.320.5-2.2010.7111.5
A.KAMARA, NORB514.820.2-5.415.6711.6
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB720.219.90.320.44.32.4
D.HENRY, TENRB618.319.4-1.122.72.80.8
D.JOHNSON, PITWR710.819.2-8.40.79.698.6
L.FOURNETTE, TBRB716.918.9-215.15.6-7.1
M.PITTMAN, INDWR615.918.9-3010.262
C.OLAVE, NOWR615.618.9-3.309.3152
J.JACOBS, LVRB622.218.83.419.23.8-4.5
T.KELCE, KCTE72118.82.20.38.665.4
J.TAYLOR, INDRB513.118.7-5.618.44.8-3.6
C.MCCAFFREY, SFRB71818.1-0.113.66.3-0.7
C.LAMB, DALWR71417.9-3.90.69.496
A.BROWN, PHIWR615.917.5-1.608.884.8
C.SUTTON, DENWR715.317.4-2.10.18.3102.4
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB410.517.3-6.8125.5-6
M.ANDREWS, BALTE716.517.2-0.70.38.493
A.COOPER, CLEWR714.317.1-2.808.494.3
C.SAMUEL, WASWR71317-41.98.342.1
C.GODWIN, TBWR511.716.9-5.20.48.859.8
D.SAMUEL, SFWR714.416.8-2.43.77.940.9
D.PIERCE, HOURB615.616.7-1.1183.2-2.3
R.STEVENSON, NERB71616.6-0.614.34.11.1
M.EVANS, TBWR616.116.4-0.308105.2
D.METCALF, SEAWR711.515.9-4.407.484
M.THOMAS, NOWR31715.71.307.379
B.HALL, NYJRB716.415.70.711.74.621
A.THIELEN, MINWR611.915.6-3.707.264.8
Z.ERTZ, ARITE712.115.6-3.507.959.7
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR714.915.4-0.508.499.3
C.KIRK, JAXWR714.415.4-10.47.774.4
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR311.515.3-3.80875
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR516.115.30.81843.2
B.COOKS, HOUWR610.415.1-4.707.864.5
N.CHUBB, CLERB719.715.14.618.32-1.4
A.JONES, GBRB715.514.90.611.44.70.6
Z.JONES, JAXWR611.114.8-3.70.37.859.8
T.HIGBEE, LATE610.614.6-408.329.5
D.MOORE, CARWR71014.6-4.60.97.772
A.GIBSON, WASRB71214.5-2.510.347.6
D.SINGLETARY, BUFRB611.414.5-3.19.74.80.3
J.WADDLE, MIAWR716.314.51.80.37.681.1
G.WILSON, NYJWR710.214.5-4.30.17.458.6
J.WILLIAMS, DETRB614.114.4-0.315.71.55.5
M.SANDERS, PHIRB614.614.30.3182.2-1.5
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR71414.3-0.307.690.3
B.AIYUK, SFWR71314.3-1.30.16.962.7
D.COOK, MINRB614.5140.515.82.7-4.5
N.HARRIS, PITRB710.814-3.214.33.10.6
A.LAZARD, GBWR61413.80.206.887.2
D.SMITH, PHIWR614.113.80.307.263.8
J.PALMER, LACWR69.413.8-4.40.26.740.2
G.KITTLE, SFTE511.413.7-2.306.839.6
J.CONNER, ARIRB510.113.6-3.511.23.84.2
J.JEUDY, DENWR710.713.2-2.50.16.782.9
T.HOCKENSON, DETTE612.413.1-0.706.550.8
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KCWR713.313.10.206.959
J.MEYERS, NEWR514.812.91.90.26.676.2
M.JONES, JAXWR69.112.9-3.806.386.2
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE610.812.9-2.106.854.5
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR712.112.8-0.70.46.484.7
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR611.712.8-1.10679.5
C.CLAYPOOL, PITWR79.412.7-3.31.36.361.4
G.EVERETT, LACTE79.912.3-2.406.446.1
R.MOORE, ARIWR4812.2-4.20.86.336.5
D.CHARK, DETWR37.612.2-4.606109.3
J.DOTSON, WASWR413.112.110.35.582.5
D.LONDON, ATLWR710.212.1-1.906.361.9
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR78.312-3.70.1664.3
M.CARTER, NYJRB71012-29.93.4-0.7
K.HUNT, CLERB710.611.9-1.39.42.7-1.1
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB710.911.9-1103.34.1
A.DILLON, GBRB78.211.8-3.611.12.91.1
D.NJOKU, CLETE711.311.8-0.50.1638.7
R.MOSTERT, MIARB710.311.8-1.5132.74.4
G.PICKENS, PITWR79.411.8-2.40.15.982.7
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB713.511.71.89.72.7-1.3
E.ELLIOTT, DALRB711.111.7-0.615.91.1-2.1
T.HIGGINS, CINWR712.611.70.906.363.9
D.SWIFT, DETRB316.911.45.59.342.3
T.BOYD, CINWR713.611.42.205.454.6
R.DOUBS, GBWR78.611.4-2.80.1649.9
C.PATTERSON, ATLRB414.711.33.415.51.85
J.WILSON, SFRB79.811.3-1.5131.64.3
M.HOLLINS, LVWR610.511.2-0.705.272.8
K.PITTS, ATLTE66.611.1-4.50564
N.BROWN, DALWR7911.1-2.105.657
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE78.211.1-2.90.15.642
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR78.411.1-2.70.15.466.1
R.GAGE, TBWR78.311.1-2.805.731.1
B.ROBINSON, WASRB38.311.1-2.816.30.7-2.7
D.MOONEY, CHIWR77.111-3.905.680.4
J.MCKISSIC, WASRB77.311-3.72.958.6
D.WALLER, LVTE57.910.9-304.854.6
G.DAVIS, BUFWR515.310.94.405.286.6
H.HURST, CINTE79.110.9-1.805.624.9
A.PIERCE, INDWR69.610.9-1.305.563.5
E.BENJAMIN, ARIRB710.610.8-0.28.13.6-5.9
R.BURKHEAD, HOURB68.110.7-2.63.855.7
T.POLLARD, DALRB710.110.7-0.610.12.60.1
D.GOEDERT, PHITE611.310.60.705.824.3
D.MONTGOMERY, CHIRB610.710.50.2131.8-1
M.GORDON, DENRB77.110.5-3.49.72.42
A.ROBINSON, LAWR67.710.5-2.804.846
I.MCKENZIE, BUFWR510.410.400.25.233.6
J.ROBINSON, JAXRB710.210.3-0.112.11.62.1
E.MOORE, NYJWR6610.2-4.20.3569.2
H.RENFROW, LVWR47.810.2-2.405.828.5
P.CAMPBELL, INDWR79.110.2-1.105.429.1
R.BATEMAN, BALWR510.710.20.505.470
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE77.810.2-2.40.15.426.4
D.HARRIS, NERB69.510-0.51020.5
D.HENDERSON, LARB68.610-1.48.233.7
R.WOODS, TENWR68.210-1.805.343.8
A.GREEN, ARIWR53.59.7-6.204.446
J.LANDRY, NOWR48.59.7-1.205.356.5
C.DAVIS, NYJWR79.49.6-0.204.977
C.BRATE, TBTE54.99.5-4.604.429
L.THOMAS, WASTE47.49.4-20541.8
N.COLLINS, HOUWR68.19.2-1.10568.5
R.TONYAN, GBTE78.79.2-0.505.123.1
I.SMITH, MINTE67.39.2-1.904.823.5
J.DOBBINS, BALRB48.69.2-0.691.50.8
K.HERBERT, CHIRB711.89.12.710.91-2
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR38.48.9-0.504.321.7
M.HARDMAN, KCWR710.68.81.80.63.630.7
N.HINES, INDRB66.88.8-22.24.33.3
K.WALKER, SEARB612.68.83.811.51.7-3.3
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR79.88.71.10.7447.4
M.GALLUP, DALWR45.78.7-304.354
R.COBB, GBWR67.38.7-1.404.346.3
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR68.88.50.30.24.836
C.AKERS, LARB54.68.4-3.810.416.6
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR110.38.41.92413
K.OSBORN, MINWR67.18.1-10.24.337.7
D.PARKER, NEWR77.68.1-0.503.966.6
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB66.58.1-1.611.80.3-0.8
J.JOHNSON, NOTE77.38-0.704.331.9
C.EDMONDS, MIARB76.98-1.15.42.45.9
D.SCHULTZ, DALTE557.9-2.904.422.6
R.PENNY, SEARB510.47.92.511.81-2.4
N.FANT, SEATE767.7-1.703.722.6
D.CARTER, LACWR76.57.7-1.20.1436.6
R.ANDERSON, ARIWR75.47.6-2.20451.9
J.MCKINNON, KCRB76.17.5-1.44.12.40.3
S.WATKINS, GBWR37.67.50.103.752.3
J.JONES, TBWR26.77.5-0.813.580.5
T.BURKS, TENWR467.5-1.50.5448.8
D.KNOX, BUFTE57.27.4-0.20427.8
M.GESICKI, MIATE787.40.603.734.1
A.DULIN, INDWR55.87.3-1.50.23.643
R.WHITE, TBRB75.17.2-2.13.92.72.1
M.INGRAM, NORB75.57.1-1.67.41.6-2.3
K.RAYMOND, DETWR65.16.9-1.80.53.539.8
R.JAMES, NYGWR75.46.8-1.40.33.730.1
H.HENRY, NETE75.36.6-1.303.324.4
G.DORTCH, ARIWR77.96.61.30.13.618.7
M.CALLAWAY, NOWR74.16.5-2.403.342
D.HILLIARD, TENRB59.26.52.71.23.26.2
K.DRAKE, BALRB56.16.5-0.48.81-2.8
C.MOORE, HOUWR55.86.5-0.703.220.6
O.ZACCHEAUS, ATLWR78.56.42.103.134.4
K.GRANSON, INDTE74.86.3-1.503.318.4
J.JENNINGS, SFWR74.66.2-1.603.423.7
A.MATTISON, MINRB65.96.1-0.251.8-1.2
N.AGHOLOR, NEWR66.46.10.303.343.8
S.SMITH, CARWR72.66.1-3.502.925.6
F.MOREAU, LVTE44.86-1.203.519.8
B.JORDAN, HOUTE31.36-4.703.331.3
C.OTTON, TBTE65.45.9-0.503.511.2
J.CROWDER, BUFWR435.8-2.803.330.3
S.MICHEL, LACRB73.35.8-2.54.71.72.6
T.SHERFIELD, MIAWR73.75.8-2.102.929.1
D.JACKSON, INDRB75.95.80.14.12-1.9
K.PHILIPS, TENWR435.7-2.703.325
H.BRYANT, CLETE73.65.6-20321.7
M.GASKIN, MIARB23.25.5-2.322.57
D.HOUSTON, DALWR21.85.5-3.70339.5
K.ALLEN, LACWR26.95.41.50328.5
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB64.65.4-0.841.31.2
S.PERINE, CINRB75.55.40.12.62.46.9
C.WATSON, GBWR455.3-0.30.82.818.5
I.LIKELY, BALTE72.95.2-2.302.612.3
T.DAVIS-PRICE, SFRB31.25.2-45.70.70
C.KMET, CHITE73.85.1-1.302.617.3
W.DISSLY, SEATE78.15.1302.914.1
B.PERRIMAN, TBWR53.65.1-1.50.42.643.6
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE77.15.120.12.67.9
K.BOURNE, NEWR64.75-0.30.32.328.7
J.KELLEY, LACRB64.85-0.23.81.70
J.SMITH, NETE63.74.9-1.202.713.7
D.ROBINSON, BALWR73.24.9-1.702.424.9
M.GOODWIN, SEAWR66.14.71.402.326.7
K.HAMLER, DENWR634.6-1.60.21.847
B.BERRIOS, NYJWR75.94.51.4129
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR63.54.5-102.341.7
J.WARREN, PITRB73.74.5-0.83.41.6-0.7
I.THOMAS, CARTE73.34.3-102.48.6
K.TONEY, NYGWR22.24.3-2.10.51.5-3.5
Z.MOSS, BUFRB53.44.3-0.93.41.6-1
D.WILLIAMS, ARIRB53.54.3-0.83.41-2.8
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE75.24.2102.110
M.BOONE, DENRB72.94.2-1.32.11.73.9
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB654.20.83.51.50.7
J.AGNEW, JAXWR654.10.90.81.819
D.PETTIS, CHIWR74.94.10.80.1224.1
D.SILLS, NYGWR72.94.1-1.202.116.1
C.BEASLEY, TBWR22.94.1-1.202.56
N.GRAY, KCTE73.34-0.70.129.9
I.PACHECO, KCRB74405.70.3-1.3
A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DENTE52.43.9-1.502.25
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR63.43.9-0.50.21.515.8
J.BATES, WASTE62.73.9-1.202.39
A.HOOPER, TENTE63.43.9-0.502.219.2
E.SAUBERT, DENTE733.8-0.80222.6
T.HILL, NOTE6223.818.24.80.3-0.2
J.HILL, BALRB53.83.70.14.80.8-0.6
B.POWELL, LAWR62.73.7-11.21.73.7
T.COLEMAN, SFRB45.53.71.83.30.86
J.MUNDT, MINTE63.13.6-0.502.22.5
J.COOK, BUFRB63.63.603.21.22.8
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR73.73.50.201.927.4
J.WOODS, INDTE74.53.5101.418
O.HOWARD, HOUTE643.40.601.724.5
B.BOLDEN, LVRB54.43.411.41.65.2
J.FERGUSON, DALTE733.3-0.301.69.7
K.HODGE, ATLWR73.33.20.101.717
D.BROWN, WASWR64.43.11.301.538.2
T.TREMBLE, CARTE72.73.1-0.401.412.6
B.SCOTT, PHIRB42.93.1-0.240.30.5
A.ISABELLA, ARIWR31.43.1-1.701.723.3
M.BREIDA, NYGRB72.33.1-0.830.91.4
E.MITCHELL, SFRB14.131.1600
G.SWAIM, TENTE62.93-0.101.55.7
K.GOLLADAY, NYGWR41.13-1.901.513.5
Z.GENTRY, PITTE72.83-0.201.71.7
J.WINFREE, GBWR30.93-2.101.317.3
S.MOORE, KCWR723-101.712.6
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE72.93-0.101.49.7
J.KUMEROW, BUFWR33.52.90.601.715.7
J.GUYTON, LACWR32.82.8001.338.3
T.HOMER, SEARB332.80.21.31.3-1.7
A.TRAUTMAN, NOTE63.62.70.901.311
C.SIMS, WASWR70.82.7-1.901.318.4
C.PARKINSON, SEATE74.32.71.601.411.9
D.ESKRIDGE, SEAWR71.82.6-0.80.31.36.4
D.SMYTHE, MIATE62.92.60.30.21.25
J.FORTSON, KCTE72.42.6-0.200.94.4
P.DORSETT, HOUWR532.50.501.416.8
Z.PASCAL, PHIWR61.72.5-0.80.21.26.2
R.GRIFFIN, CHITE51.12.5-1.401.29.4
D.FOREMAN, CARRB72.92.40.53.90.30
J.OLIVER, BALTE71.82.3-0.5013.3
M.STRACHAN, INDWR71.32.3-101.113.6
A.WILLIAMS, ATLRB72.82.30.51.40.9-3.4
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR72.22.3-0.100.96.6
D.BELL, CLEWR722.3-0.301.312.6
C.WILSON, MIAWR61.52.2-0.70.21.214.8
C.OKONKWO, TENTE62.42.20.20.218
T.EBNER, CHIRB70.82.2-1.42.10.40.9
A.BACCELLIA, ARIWR51.32.1-0.801.211
A.SCHWARTZ, CLEWR60.82-1.20.3113.7
C.HUBBARD, CARRB72.820.82.10.6-0.3
D.DALLAS, SEARB72201.70.70.3
T.MCKITTY, LACTE712-1012.3
J.JACKSON, DETRB61.72-0.31.50.53.8
D.OGUNBOWALE, HOURB61.92-0.10.21.22.5
T.WALLACE, BALWR60.91.9-10114.5
T.ATWELL, LAWR51.51.9-0.40.20.830.8
T.KROFT, SFTE211.9-0.90116.5
B.PRINGLE, CHIWR31.81.9-0.10119.3
J.REAGOR, MINWR621.90.10.20.81.5
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE61.71.9-0.201.22.7
C.CONLEY, HOUWR201.8-1.8019
L.CAGER, NYJTE101.8-1.80114
A.BECK, DENTE71.31.8-0.50.10.96.9
D.SAMPLE, CINTE20.91.8-0.901-1
T.CLEVELAND, DENWR511.8-0.800.86.2
M.DAVIS, BALRB60.31.5-1.21.300
E.TOMLINSON, DENTE711.5-0.500.75.3
A.FIRKSER, ATLTE51.41.5-0.100.86.6
B.EDWARDS, ATLWR50.61.5-0.900.88
S.FEHOKO, DALWR51.11.5-0.400.810.2
T.HUDSON, NYGTE711.5-0.500.97.7
B.WRIGHT, DETTE62.21.50.700.84
J.DEGUARA, GBTE71.51.40.100.92.4
T.DAVIS, GBTE70.91.4-0.500.92.4
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB611.4-0.400.71.2
G.RICCI, CARTE71.51.40.100.93.9
Q.CEPHUS, DETWR40.91.3-0.400.83.5
P.HESSE, ATLTE71.21.3-0.100.75.1
D.ARNOLD, JAXTE71.71.30.400.73.3
B.ELLEFSON, MINTE41.41.30.100.83.8
D.MILNE, WASWR711.3-0.300.74.3
H.HASKINS, TENRB611.3-0.31.70.3-1.2
I.SMITH-MARSETTE, CHIWR60.11.3-1.20.20.74.7
T.JOHNSON, NYJRB70.51.2-0.70.60.60.9
M.WILCOX, CINTE71.31.20.100.71.4
J.STOLL, PHITE60.81.2-0.400.50.8
L.HUMPHREY, NEWR60.71.1-0.400.74.5
C.MANHERTZ, JAXTE70.61-0.400.40.4
J.SMITH, NYJWR70.71-0.300.66
D.FELTON, CLERB40.21-0.80.30.52.3
R.DWELLEY, SFTE71.810.800.64.9
D.WILLIAMS, ATLRB10.21-0.8200
C.HOLLISTER, TENWR61.410.400.57.7
M.WASHINGTON, DENWR70.51-0.50.40.43
J.HASTY, JAXRB72.411.40.70.4-1.3
A.ROGERS, WASTE71.30.90.400.61.1
R.RODGERS, LACTE500.8-0.800.20.2
D.HARTY, NOWR40.80.8000.51.3
N.TOGIAI, PHITE200.8-0.800.52
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE60.90.80.100.52
J.HORSTED, LVTE60.80.8000.52.2
D.TURNER, LVWR210.80.21.500
J.PROCHE, BALWR50.30.7-0.400.42.2
A.RODGERS, GBWR70.30.7-0.40.400
T.JONES, JAXWR70.70.7000.40.6
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB71.10.60.50.600
J.DARDEN, TBWR70.70.60.10.10.31.4
M.BOYKIN, PITWR70.30.6-0.300.36.6
Z.WHITE, LVRB60.40.6-0.21.200
J.TONGES, CHITE300.6-0.600.34.3
J.WILLIAMS, WASRB51.10.60.51.200
C.WOERNER, SFTE700.6-0.600.36.1
S.MORGAN, CINWR600.6-0.600.20
M.LEWIS, GBTE710.50.500.10.3
C.EVANS, CINRB70.20.5-0.300.34.1
T.SWEENEY, BUFTE30.60.50.100.3-0.3
K.KIEFT, TBTE70.80.50.300.34
K.TURPIN, DALWR70.10.4-0.30.30.11.3
J.NAILOR, MINWR50.50.40.100.22.6
P.HART, SEAWR50.50.30.200.21.4
L.FARRELL, JAXTE70.30.20.100.1-0.3
S.ANDERSON, ARITE70.20.2000.10.3
J.MASON, SFRB60.10.100.200

WEEK 8 BUY LOW

CHRIS GODWIN

Chris Godwin got off to a slow start due to ACL rehab and a hamstring injury, but he has quietly seen elite target volume since getting healthy. If we throw out Week 1 where he left early with the hamstring injury, he is averaging an elite 19.9 XFP per game, which would put him WR9 on a per-game basis in XFP. He is seeing 10.25 targets per game over this stretch, which is a 174-target pace over 17 games.

Godwin has still been an effective real-life player, checking in at PFF’s WR25 out of 110 players this year. Tom Brady ranks as PFF’s QB6 and four of five starters on the offensive line rank above average at their positions. The team’s offensive struggles seem to stem from bad luck and poor execution in key moments rather than a lack of talent in any specific area. The Bucs currently rank 27th in red zone touchdown efficiency and are leaving too many points on the field, but they have enough talent to turn it around.

Godwin hasn’t scored a touchdown this year, which makes his raw fantasy point totals look pedestrian compared to other top options. He will almost certainly score at least a few touchdowns on the season even if the offense doesn’t improve. However, with his target volume and talent, he still has access to an elite ceiling if the offense starts clicking.

Godwin’s health should also continue to improve as the season goes on. Don’t discount his upside as a potential high-volume WR1 over the back half of the season.

JAMES CONNER

James Conner isn’t the flashiest name and probably doesn’t make sense for every team, but I would target him if you need cheap running back production.

First, Conner does have health concerns. he is currently nursing a rib injury, but Edwin Porras, DPT predicts that Conner will likely return in either Week 8 or Week 9. While any injury is concerning, I am less concerned about this injury lingering for the rest of the season than some type of lower-body injury.

At first glance, Conner’s XFP numbers don’t look particularly impressive, mostly because he missed large chunks of two games with injury. In the three games he was healthy, he averaged 17.3 XFP on 13.3 carries and 4.7 targets per game. He would rank RB10 in XFP per game if you only count his healthy games this season.

Conner is involved in the passing game and is the primary option at the goal line for Arizona, two of the most important areas for fantasy production. The offense just had a good showing on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, so Conner should hopefully return to plenty of scoring opportunities when he gets healthy. We saw his upside last year if given enough goal-line carries, and while he probably won’t score quite as often as last year, he still has solid touchdown upside.

I generally don’t like trading for RB2-type players, but Conner is a cheap option if your team is desperate for help at the position. His floor is pretty low due to his injury history, but I believe he has more upside than most players in his cost range.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS

WEEK 8 SELL HIGH

MIKE WILLIAMS & DAVID NJOKU

This recommendation has less to do with XFP and more to do with injuries. Unfortunately, both players suffered high ankle sprains during Week 7 and are expected to miss time.

Dr. Edwin Porras wrote the following on high ankle sprains:

High ankle sprains are much more severe and despite the commonly cited 4-6 week timeline thrown around, the mean and median missed amount of time is 3 weeks among skill players. Conclusion: Lateral ankle sprains result in a modest loss of time/production. High ankle sprains are a gruesome injury that is slow to heal and recurs in-season 20% of the time. Do not trade for a player who suffers a high ankle sprain in-season.

These players have obviously lost value due to injury, but you might be able to get something for them. I would suggest targeting the team in 1st-place as they have more time to wait out injuries. See if they are interested in an injury “buy low” and willing to give back a minor piece that you can plug into your starting lineup this week.

I’ve already written about most players I am concerned about from an XFP perspective. Some such as D’Andre Swift, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Rashaad Penny have gotten injured and can’t be sold high anymore. Allen Lazard is difficult to sell right now with a shoulder injury.

Others that can still be sold today are listed below. Other than players who are worth nothing like Mecole Hardman, nobody else jumps out to me as an obvious sell candidate this week.

PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT YOU CAN STILL SELL HIGH

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