Javonte Williams’ Dynasty Value & 2021 Fantasy Outlook as Broncos’ Future Workhorse

Javonte Williams' 2021 fantasy outlook and dynasty value shines as Pat Shurmur's next great workhorse.

Somewhere between the Najee Harris workhorse fangirl session and the endless Travis Etienne back-and-forth, Javonte Williams hasn’t been getting the love he deserves. A highly gifted running back out of North Carolina, Williams didn’t get quite the name recognition that Harris and Etienne did in college this season. I guess that’s just the Alabama and Clemson bump.

Still, Williams’ tape and his measurables firmly entrenched him in the same tier as Harris and Etienne in this rookie running back class. Williams boasts a powerful frame at 5’10” 212 lbs, which is ideal for an NFL workhorse running back. What makes Williams so enticing is his pure running power and decisiveness. Often compared to Kareem Hunt, Williams projects to be a powerful and efficient running back that can shoulder a heavy workload.

Cue salivating from shameless fantasy football analysts and fans alike.

INDIVIDUAL TALENT (8.2/10)

Trapped in a committee in Chapel Hill, what makes Williams a superior running back to his former backfield running mate, Michael Carter? What makes him a prospect worthy of being part of the golden tier of Harris and Etienne? Someone get Graham Barfield on the line.

Speaking of Barfield, when it comes to scouting running backs, the buck starts and stops with him and his “Yards Created” metric over at Fantasy Points.

Yards Created: Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon Lead the 2021 Rookie RB Class

North Carolina afforded Williams a nice learning curve. The Tar Heels’ gap blocking scheme so masterfully gifted Williams a beautiful 1.88 yards blocked per attempt. According to Mr. Barfield’s work, his blocking scheme was in the 97th percentile of all classes charted from 2015-2020. Couldn’t this be used as a negative against Williams? Perhaps. A common, yet silly, narrative on fantasy Twitter is that running backs with good offensive line play are only good for that reason.

Looking deeper though, it’s clear this doesn’t apply to Williams. Williams created 5.61 yards per attempt (YC/A), which ranks in the 79th percentile in the database. In fact, his elusiveness might be his most distinguishing feature.

Williams forced a staggering 0.474 missed tackles forced per attempt, which puts him in the 93rd percentile.

How does Williams rank alongside of Harris and Etienne? You might want to take a seat.

Williams 5.61 YC/A blows Harris’ 4.47 YC/A and Etienne’s 4.22 YC/A completely out of the water. Williams also dunks all over Harris and Etienne in forcing missed tackles. Harris’ 0.330 and Etienne’s 0.355 missed tackles forced pale in comparison to Williams.

With Williams comparing so favorably to Kareem Hunt, how does his profile stack up to Hunt’s rookie profile?

Hunt:

5’10” 216 lbs.

782 rushes, 4,945 yards (6.32 YPC), 44 TDs, 73 rec., 555 yards, and one TD.

YC/A – 5.81

MTF/A – 0.465

Williams

5’10” 212 lbs.

366 rushes, 2,297 yards (6.28 YPC), 29 TDs, 50 rec., 539 yards, four TDs.

YC/A – 5.61

MTF/A – 0.474

While severely underrated as a pass-catcher, Williams was rightfully overshadowed by Carter at North Carolina. Still, in his own right, Williams does well as a receiver. Williams was credited with 1.8 yards added per route run and has shown a capability of running a semi-diverse running back route tree.

Possessing elite elusiveness and a powerful running style, Williams’ only roadblocks are himself, and Melvin Gordon. In the “Yards Created” episode of the Fantasy Fullback Dive, featuring Barfield, he went on record saying that Williams is already a more talented runner than Gordon. In short, Williams’ talent and physicality scream a three-down stallion skillset.

OPPORTUNITY (6.5/10)

At the time of publication, Gordon is *checks notes* still with the Broncos.

Javonte Williams' 2021 Fantasy Outlook in a Broncos Committee With Melvin Gordon

Last season, Gordon came in as a bit of a divisive back. Phillip Lindsay stans were up in arms when Gordon joined the Broncos on a two-year $16M deal with $13.5 guaranteed.

Gordon made the most of his opportunity with the Broncos. Gordon saw 215 rushes and caught 32 of 44 targets for 1,144 total yards and 10 total TDs.

Assuming that Gordon’s legal situation is firmly in the past, he should start the season off as the lead back. Worst case scenario, Williams can expect a bit of a rinse and repeat situation with the Gordon/Lindsay dynamic of last season. Gordon saw a little over 14 rush attempts per game while Lindsay saw almost 11. Given Williams’ talent, production profile, and draft capital,  that projects to be his floor.

As a whole last season, Denver ranked 13th in rush attempts despite ranking as the 28th overall scoring offense. There has been generally good feedback surrounding Drew Lock and the 2021 addition, Teddy Bridgewater. Last season’s 25th ranked scoring passing offense projects to be improved. This should provide more goal-line opportunities and limit opposing defenses’ abilities to stack boxes.

With Williams’ silky smooth cutting and elite tackle-breaking chops, he projects to be a highly efficient runner. Hitting the ground running and making the most of his touches will only put pressure on Gordon to produce and earn more touches for Williams.

SCHEME & SURROUNDING TALENT (8.8/10)

Broncos Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur has a history of being a bell cow breeder. In fact, in 8/12 seasons as an OC Shurmur has leaned on a bell-cow back to lead his offense.

After drafting super freak Saquon Barkley, Shurmur rode that twitchy Clydesdale for 352 total touches and 2,028 total yards, and a cool 15 scores. Prior to Barkley’s jaw-dropping rookie season, Shurmur’s lead horse had averaged 370 opportunities per season.

With a loaded cabinet of receiving weapons in Courtland SuttonJerry JeudyNoah Fant, and Tim Patrick, defenses will be hard-pressed to key in on stopping the run — that is if the reports out of camp are true and Lock is improving on his terrible 2020 campaign. Regardless, if Lock does fall on his face, Bridgewater is there to at least steady the ship.

In fact, last season with the Panthers, despite lacking firepower, Bridgewater sustained three top 25 fantasy WRs. Bridgewater is a smart and accurate quarterback that can at least keep defenses honest. Williams is surrounded by talent and an offensive coordinator that knows how to deploy his running backs.

With basically nowhere to go but up, Williams has an amazing situation to develop and thrive in.

RISK/REWARD (9.2/10)

While Shurmur obviously knows how to use multiple running backs, he has a clear preference for riding one running back. Last season, Gordon ranked dead last in yards per target and yards per route run among 41 qualified RBs. While still effective on the ground as a runner (4.6 YPC) Gordon lacked any substantial play-making ability.

The rookie also has a three-down skill-set. Williams caught 50 passes for an average of 10.8 yards per catch during his time at North Carolina. Whether it comes from his underrated receiving capabilities or his powerful, decisive running prowess, Williams will be hard to keep off the field. Mr. Barfield continued to claim that Williams was “one of my personal favorite prospects I have ever charted for Yards Created.”

In short, Williams drips in league-winning upside and is talented enough that the possible top 12 fantasy RB upside is well worth taking at his RB28 ADP. In Dynasty, Williams is next in line as Shurmur’s future workhorse with Gordon’s contract set to expire at the end of this season.

FINAL FANTASY STOCK FORMULA GRADE: 32.7/40

Williams currently comes in as the RB25 (+3 ECR) on The Wolf’s 2021 Fantasy Big Board and RB17 (+2 vs ECR) on our Dynasty Rankings.

Author

  • Graduate of Regent University (2019) BA Sports Journalism Writer: Full Press Coverage, UnFiltered Sports Network Fantasy Football Enthusiast Fantasy Analyst/Writer for the Roto Street Journal

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