Whether its the fantasy football playoffs lurking over the horizon, or the remnants of such an insane week 12, week 13 feels like it’s make or break for fantasy players. Hopefully those first round byes have been locked up by most of you that have faithfully read this.
After a couple of rocky weeks, week 12 was largely a smash. Had it not been for a meaningless Hail Mary from Carson Wentz, he would not have finished as a QB1 last week. Brian Hill was effective on the ground, he just didn’t get the touchdowns nor the targets. Tom Brady rebounded from a slow start to put up a good fantasy day while Melvin Gordon was a massive flop, as expected.
Lastly, if you started Justin Jefferson, you won your week unless you went against the likes of Tyreek Hill or Derrick Henry. Always remember to trust the process and stay water. That’s what separates the fantasy wolves from the fantasy sheep.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Kirk Cousins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Cousins stepped up last week when Dalvin Cook got banged up. What’s the narrative on Cousins again? He doesn’t throw enough? Melts away in prime time? Bah!
For three straight weeks Cousins has thrown at least 30 passes. Yeah, 30! That’s more than Ryan Tannehill attempted per game last season by a wide margin and Tannehill was fantastic when he took over in Tennessee. In fact, Cousins has been a QB1 for three straight weeks, and over that span he has averaged 26.6 FPPG.
Jefferson, by all accounts, appears to be one of the most promising rising young stars at the wide receiver position. Adam Thielen continues to produce at an elite clip, despite being a little long in the tooth.
The Vikings have 2 WRs ranked in the Top-5 in PFF Grade: Justin Jefferson (2nd) & Adam Thielen (3rd)
Last team to achieve that through 12 weeks : 2007 Patriots Randy Moss (T-2nd) Wes Welker (5th) pic.twitter.com/ki0tJpdrHZ
— PFF (@PFF) December 4, 2020
As for how good Cousins has been all season, he ranks seventh in fantasy points over expected (FPOE) and seventh in air yards completed. The Jaguars have absolutely no will of their own on defense. Even if Cook is 100% healthy and has a field day, Cousins still should be able to have his way with these hapless cats.
Honorable Mention: Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick
Sit ‘Em
Cam Newton vs Los Angeles Chargers
Say it with me. Cam Newton is not very good.
Now take a deep breath. Do you feel better? You know what they say… the truth will set you free. The baggage that has held fantasy owners down from the narrative about Newton weighs a ton. While a little bit jaded from the injury he sustained during the middle of the season, Newton ranks 21st in PPR points this season.
In fact, Newton has -12.1 FPOE on the season, the worst of his career. The Chargers do struggle against the run, but have been great at defending the pass. Over their last five games, the Chargers defense has allowed an average of 188.8 passing yards. Newton has finished as a QB3 in two of his last five and is coming off of an absolute stinker against the Cardinals in week 12.
Newton, to his credit, doesn’t have a lot to work with. He also has to contend with the likes of Chris Harris and Joey Bosa on defense. Without a good day on the ground, Newton doesn’t offer much of a ceiling and should not be a primary option for fantasy owners this week.
Honorable Mention: Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff
Running Backs
Start ‘Em
David Montgomery vs Detroit Lions
It’s David Montgomery week again! Last week, Montgomery actually managed to deliver against the Packers soft rush defense. If there was ever a better matchup, it would be the hapless Lions rush defense. In three of its last five games, the Lions have surrendered 21.2, 39.2, 22.5 PPR points, which rank second, first, and second respectively. Last week, the otherwise disappointing Duke Johnson was able to score 17 PPR points, ranking as the RB12.
The question remains, is Montgomery actually a good RB that is being wasted by one of the all time worst offensive situations?
Despite being 46th 👀 in YBC/Att, David Montgomery is
#9 in YAC/Att
#3 in Broken Tackles (4th in Atts/BT)
#7 in YAC (#9 in YAC/Att)Are we ready to have the conversation that Montgomery might be a good RB?
— Danny P (@Danny_FFX) December 3, 2020
The Bears cannot block for Montgomery, period. Take every excuse people have given to Saquon Barkley and the same can be said for Montgomery… and then some. Now nobody is out here saying that Montgomery is anywhere near the talent or caliber of back that Barkley is. The point still remains.
If Houston’s awful offensive line can help make Johnson relevant, then there is no reason Montgomery isn’t able to eat this week. Start him with decent confidence.
Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Benny Snell
Sit ‘Em
Wayne Gallman vs Seattle Seahawks
I never thought I would have to write a blurb about Gallman, especially after Barkley landed with the Giants. Yet 2020 has scoffed at all of our optimism entering into the new decade. Gallman could still have success against the Seahawks defense. Last week, without Daniel Jones, Colt McCoy did target Gallman five times.
Gallman has been on fire, scoring a touchdown in six straight games. Gallman has been a RB1 in three straight weeks. However, over the last five games, Seattle’s defense has allowed an average of 17.2 rush yards and 31.8 receiving yards. Since Seattle’s pass defense is so horrendous it’s no surprise that running backs don’t tend to thrive in these matchups.
Gallman is expected to be without Jones again this week and the Seahawks defense should be allowed to completely lock in on stopping the run. This should cap any floor that Gallman may have.
Honorable Mention: Zack Moss, Todd Gurley
Wide Receivers
Start ‘Em
DeVante Parker vs Cincinnati Bengals
With Fitzpatrick expected to start again for the Dolphins this week, Parker is a locked and loaded fantasy start. The last five games, the Bengals secondary has allowed 100.4 yards per game to their opponents top WRs.
As for Parker, the splits when Fitzpatrick starts as opposed to Tua Tagovailoa, are staggering.
Fitzpatrick has a true gunslinger’s mentality while Tua is still adjusting to the speed of the NFL. Parker averages almost 100 more PPR points/16 games with Fitzpatrick as opposed to Tua and that should instill all the confidence needed to plug him in this week.
Honorable Mention: Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis
Sit ‘Em
Tyler Boyd vs Miami Dolphins
Brandon Allen and Boyd did not have any chemistry in Allen’s first start of 2020. Boyd caught only three of six targets for a measly 15 yards. It doesn’t help that he will have to contend against PFF’s top ranked cornerback, Xavien Howard without Burrow throwing him the ball.
With an already inaccurate QB throwing him the ball, and a CB that is giving up a catch on only 48% of targets, Boyd’s floor is substantially lowered. Until Allen proves he can effectively move the ball, Boyd cannot be trusted.
Honorable Mention: Darius Slayton, Christian Kirk
Tight End Streamers
Mike Gesicki vs Cincinnati Bengals
Robert Tonyan vs Philadelphia Eagles
