Since 2016, Will Fuller has been one of the biggest what-ifs in fantasy football. He possesses the skill-set to have a Tyreek Hill–esque fantasy impact, but he can’t find a way to stay on the field to hit that lofty ceiling. Yet, with 167 vacated targets and over 1,500 air yards available for the taking, Fuller is severely undervalued by the 2020 fantasy football community, as evidence by his 8.04 ADP.
As everyone knows by now, Bill O’Brien and the Texans dealt DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals. Hopkins has seen 150-plus targets over the last five seasons, and now Deshaun Watson will be on the lookout for a bonafide WR1.
In 2019, Fuller was on pace for over 100 targets as Watson’s secondary option. Imagine the fantasy upside as he now slides into Watson’s WR1 role?
But, the injury imp bit Fuller again.
For whatever reason, inadequate training or lousy luck, Fuller has missed significant chunks of three straight seasons. During all three seasons, Fuller produced in stretches, most notably a healthy stretch of six games per season. When healthy, he averaged mid-to-high level WR2 fantasy outputs, with week winning upside.
The worst Fuller averaged in a six-week span between 2017-2019, was WR14 (15.2 ppg) in 2018, before tearing his ACL. If Fuller could produce that over a full season, he would easily be one of the biggest steals in fantasy football drafts at his current ADP.
Even look at last year, Fuller had a six-week stretch averaging 15.9 ppg as the overall WR13. Even more impressive, he outscored Hopkins during that stretch. Not to mention Fuller had a game in October where he dropped three would-be-touchdowns.
I made a compilation of all 3 dropped TDs today by Will Fuller.
Last week, he caught 3 TDs, today? dropped 3.pic.twitter.com/rRIl8wZe1a
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 13, 2019
Alas, Fuller’s ceiling is about as high as it gets in fantasy. Fuller’s best six-week span came in 2017, where he was the WR4 (17.8 ppg), yes, the WR4, during weeks 4-to-9. But of course, Fuller cracked his ribs and did not return to the lineup until Week 17, where he suffered a season-ending knee strain.
The production and the ceiling beg the question:
“If healthy, how dominant can Will Fuller really be?”
All we need to do is look back to last year. If you were lucky enough to start Fuller in Week 5, you’re well aware that Fuller can rip the top off of a defense, and single-handedly take over your fantasy matchup.
In that matchup against the Falcons, Fuller posted a ridiculous 14-217-3 stat-line on 16 targets, which totaled an absurd 53.7 fantasy points. It was by far the most points a player scored in a single game last season and the most fantasy points scored by any player since Jamaal Charles registered 59.5 points back in 2013.
Based on his past performances, Fuller is currently being overlooked and undervalued for the massive ceiling he possesses. As one knows by now, Fuller is an elite vertical threat who has scored 16 touchdowns in his 41 career games. While his connection with Watson has been more than apparent during stretches, Fuller is unable to put it all together for a full fantasy season.
Fuller is now 26 years old and two years removed from ACL surgery. Not only is he ‘entering his prime’ and healthy, but his usage should be higher than ever. Hopkins is no longer around, and the Texans replaced the durable and reliable Hopkins with Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb, two players who cannot stay on the field.
While Cooks has been a 1,000-yard receiver wherever he’s played, he has a history of concussions, and that does not bode well for his 2020 fantasy outlook. Not only are concussions a concern for the lid lifter, but Cooks could be harmed by a lack of chemistry with Watson, due to COVID-19.
Overall, Fuller is currently underrated and overlooked by 2020 fantasy owners. His current 8.04 ADP is a complete and utter steal, especially when factoring the receiver’s immense upside in the middle rounds. While most Texans’ WRs provide upside, such as Cooks, we can’t help to pounce on Fuller’s value at his current price tag.
If Fuller stays healthy for an entire 16 games, he’s a lock for over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. With Hopkins out of town, the sky is the limit for the WR1 in Houston.
As of now, The Wolf has Fuller ranked as his WR34 on his most recent 2020 Fantasy Football Big Board.