Risers (cont)
5) 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin Continues Flashing Target Hog Upside, Ideal Fantasy WR3
On the same week he was labeled “clearly Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite target,” Marquise Goodwin flashed why. In a lone quarter of action, Goodwin racked up a team-high three targets, catching them all for a game-high 61 yards.
Goodwin was originally labeled a “Must Buy Bargain” in our Preseason Kickoff Guide, and he continues flashing why. Him and Garoppolo are clearly in sync, which was especially evident on a 40 yard hook-up deep down the sideline.
Their rapport has been evident ever since Jimmy G took over as starter. During these weeks (13-17), Goodwin was the PPR WR8 in fantasy. This stretch included an 8 catch, 99 yard game versus Chicago and a 10 catch, 114 yard game against Tennessee, and Goodwin ultimately racked up 29 catches for 384 yards — a 93 catch, 1,229 yard pace.
Most impressive, however, was that none of these 29 catches went for more than 20 yards…. So much for just a “deep ball artist.” Instead, Goodwin was destroying people underneath given all the space he was afforded at the line thanks to his speed, while proving highly capable of a full route tree.
Don’t forget to consider HC Kyle Shanahan. He has a lengthy track record of peppering No.1 “Alpha X Receivers,” is well-aware of just how dangerous Goodwin is, and plans to capitalize:
“When you can beat man coverage like that on almost any route we give you, and he’s catching it consistently, we’re excited about his year,” Shanahan said. “And (we) expect him to get a lot of opportunities.”
Though his ADP has steadily been climbing as the Hype Train builds (up to 78 from 100 just 2 weeks ago), Goodwin’s still seems likely to exceed his price tag. He’s refined his Olympic Speed into a dangerous all-around ability. He’ll be heavily utilized. And he has a dangerous rapport with a talented QB. These ingredients could combine for high-end WR2 production.
6) Browns’ Carlos Hyde Steam Rolls Bills as Clear-Cut No.1 Running Back
Carlos Hyde was the clear-cut early down rusher for the Browns, and looked damn strong in the role. He turned 9 carries into 64 yards (7.1 YPC) and 1 TD, and is firmly above Nick Chubb on the Browns depth chart. Though Duke Johnson rotated in on passing situations, Hyde will clearly be involved behind a top-half line and in an offense that should generate plenty of scoring chances. He’s shaping up to be a steal at his 80th overall Price Point.
In other news, the Bills look like they’ll again be a goldmine for opposing running backs — all of Cleveland’s backs churned tonight. But none were more impressive than Hyde, who stiff-armed and churned his way to beastly gains all night. This was especially true on the opening drive, with Hyde serving as the offensive engine and ripping 5 carries for 41 yards and a drive-capping TD.
The Browns offensive line was bullying the Bills’ front seven, and Hyde displayed his usual strong vision and powerful balance throughout his four series with the first team offense. Moreover, Chubb didn’t touch the field with the ones.
If a negative is to be found, it’s Duke Johnson‘s heavy involvement — though this was always expected. As long as Hyde can maintain the early-down and goalline role here, he’s bound to exceed his 7-8th round price tag. This offense is set to explode, and the bulldozing Hyde has always been a beast at the stripe, creating real 10+ TD upside.
7) Emmanuel Sanders Dominating Slot Work and Case Keenum’s Target Share
The Broncos will obviously be trotting out a new 2018 QB in Case Keenum. If the early preseason is any indication, Keenum has a clear favorite target here: Emmanuel Sanders. Though the stats are nothing crazy (3-27), the “Usage” has been abundant. Sanders has been targeted on 7 of Keenum’s 16 attempts (all Week 2), and his 43.8% target share is the highest of any first-team WR thus far this preseason. Considering Sanders’ newfound slot usage and Keenum’s history peppering this spot, the WRs target uptick is no mere coincidence.
To be specific: Sanders has run 53% of his routes from the slot this Preseason, according to Pro Football Focus. This is a significant increase from his 27% slot usage in 2018, and flashy rookie WR Courtland Sutton has played strictly outside and only in 3-WR sets.
This is significant, considering Keenum’s success peppering Vikings’ slot WR Adam Thielen in 2017. Thielen experienced a massive breakout, hauling in 91 receptions for 1,276 yards — 27 more catches than the more-talented Stefon Diggs. In particular, Keenum locked into the slot and Thielen on third-downs, where Thielen trailed only Keenan Allen and tied DeAndre Hopkins with 32% of his team’s targets. In three first-team drives, the Broncos had six third down opportunites.
Sanders was targeted on 3 of 6 chances, and accounted for 2 of the team’s 3 successful third downs. He also drew two-straight deep targets with his team needing 18 yards — and Keenum barely missed on what would’ve gone for a long score.
Though he’s coming off a dreadful 2017, Sanders fought through an ankle injury the entire second half, and horrendous QB-play all season. Both are fixed up, and Sanders is just a year removed from three-straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Between his newfound slot-usage and Keenum’s affinity for targeting the position, expect Sanders to return to form. His 91 ADP is a steal, and Sanders is likely to outscore fellow WR Demaryius Thomas, who goes nearly 50 picks sooner. Capitalize.
8) Chris Hogan Flashes Target-Hog Upside Inside Explosive Patriots Scheme
In Tom Brady’s 2018 debut, Chris Hogan was far-and-away his top WR target. Hogan hauled in 5-of-7 looks for 25 yards and a score, which came on a nice double move out of the slot. Keep in mind — Julian Edelman DID play, though Rob Gronkowski sat out. According to The Atlantic’s Jeff Howe, Hogan has been on the receiving end of 21 of Brady’s team drill completions, the highest on the team. Should this carry over into 2018, particularly during Edelman’s four-game absence, and Hogan will be a major fantasy steal around his 60ish ADP.
With over 251 targets available from last season, New England’s aerial pie is extremely open. This is especially true with Edelman absent for the first quarter of the season. As such, Hogan has reportedly stepped up and seems to be emerging as a true Target Hog for Brady. Keep in mind: Hogan already ranked second in the team behind Gronkowski in Red Zone targets over the past two years since joining the Pats, and now over 20 RZ looks have been vacated. He seems likely to continue dominating in close, but could also see an expanded role all over the field. Hogan averaged 13.6 FPPG when healthy last year, and was the WR7 through the season’s first 8 weeks before getting injured. He has WR1 upside, at minimum for the season’s first four weeks, and can be had at a WR3 price — a steal for a potential target monster in a juggernaut attack.
9) JuJu Smith Schuster Scores in Back-to-Back Weeks, Monster Season Brewing?
JuJu Smith-Schuster scored for the second week in a row, this time on a four-yard slant versus the Packers. The week prior, he highpointed a ball over the coverage before outrunning the defense for a 71-yard score. Indeed, Smith-Schuster is benefiting from Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown’s absences, as he’ll undoubtedly rank below them on the Steelers’ Target Totem Pole. Still, he’s picking up right where he left off: making incredible plays at every level of the field.
By any metric, JuJu’s 58-917-7 TD rookie debut was a smashing success. He finished as the 11th overall WR in Fantasy Points Per Game (14.8), despite seeing only 79 targets. He posted Pro Football Focus’ highest QB-pass catcher passer rating (134.8). And, perhaps most importantly after Martavis Bryant’s trade, JuJu’s target share was an insane 32.3% whenever Bryant was out of the lineup — as compared to 13.3% target share with both active.
Encouragingly, with scores in back-to-back preseason games, JuJu’s picking up right where he left off — a 9 – 143 – TD effort against Cleveland. Though others worry about his volume behind two studs, JuJu’s efficiency is off the charts, especially when he’s lined up against weaker, single-coverage — especially since he spends much of his time destroying the slot (led all NFL receivers with 2.15 yards per route out of the slot, according to Pro Football Focus). Yes, rookie James Washington has been highly impressive (5-114-2TDs last night), yet, if anything, he helps left the lid for JuJu and the rest of this offense. Reporters suggested JuJu was hungrier than ever in practices, and that’s reflecting in game-action. Expect him to continue surging in Year 2, and be a major bargain at his 41 overall ADP.
For Preseason Week 2’s Fallers and Penny Stocks, continue on to Page 3
