The Formula for the Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was one of the most critical fantasy football draft selections. Going mid-to-late Round 3, JSN finished 4th in targets (163), 3rd in catches (119), 1st in yards (1793), and 2nd in PPR FPs (361.9). Ultimately, Smith-Njigba ranked third in ESPN Playoff Advance Rate with a whopping 71%. This trailed only Jonathan Taylor (72.3%) and Christian McCaffrey (71.9%).
But what led to such an eruption? We had seen glimpses of stardom. As a sophomore, he leapt from a WR48 rookie year finish all the way to the WR10, nearly doubling his yards and TDs in the process. Yet, what caused this blast-off into the truly elite?
While this is certainly oversimplification, key ingredients for JSN included:
- Flashes of elite talent already and/or an elite collegiate prospect
- An OC Change to a brilliant mind (Kubiak for JSN)
- Talented-enough QB Play, especially if it’s a new upgrade (Darnold for JSN)
- Target Competition removal (DK Metcalf for JSN)
- A near every-down role, especially one with Usage in Heavy-Personnel (12P or 13P)
With that in mind, I see 5-6 potential candidates to be the “Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba.” Granted, smashing to the extent of JSN is unlikely. Additionally, very Still, there are a handful of Wide Receivers going in the Round 3-5 range who could truly blow-up and find themselves going in Round 1 in 2027 Fantasy Football Drafts.
Note – this is why, as outlined in my 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like going RB-RB to start drafts. You can land two elite bell-cows, and still give yourself a shot at a “Unicorn WR1,” which has become the rarest asset in fantasy.
Thus, I need to have at least one receiver by the time I get through these guys, and preferably will take two stabs:
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Heavy Personnel: 12P and 13P, and Why it Matters
Last season, Heavy (12P & 13P) Personnel (2 or 3 Tight Ends sets) was utilized at the highest rate in decades. This meant fewer WRs on the field at a given time, which had a dramatic impact on both the real-life and fantasy gridiron.
There has been some fantastic literature on this topic throughout this offseason from both the Fantasy and NFL communities. My three favorite articles on the matter:
- Jakob Sanderson’s The NFL’s Tight End Revolution will not be Linear (but it will be Televised)
- Ryan Heath’s Finding the Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Playcaller Tendencies
- Bill Barnwell’s Can more NFL teams copy the Rams’ TE-heavy offense in 2026?
These three articles paint the why behind the rise of Heavy Personnel, and whether it’s actually a good idea, better than I ever could. Perhaps the cleanest summary is from Sanderson, who wrote:
“Running the ball has largely become more efficient because defenses are so afraid of the pass. The counter-punch from the league’s best offensive minds has been to dress the pass in the run’s clothing.”
Both Sanderson and Barnwell wisely point out how the Rams’ did this to tremendous success. The Rams averaged 0.23 EPA/play out of the formation in total and 0.50 EPA/drop back out of 13-personnel.
Both writers also both emphasized how, league-wide, 13 personnel was inefficient in general, generating -0.01 EPA/play. The other 31 teams besides the Rams averaged -0.06 EPA/play.
Similarly, the Seahawks had fantastic success out of 12 personnel. They ran it on 29.9% of snaps vs. 22.3% league average and produced a league-best 0.37 EPA/pass while leading the NFL with 7.5 yards/play from 12 personnel. They also were the most effective team at using Heavy to catch teams off guard:
In short, these packages worked for some teams, typically the ones with brilliant playcallers, but it’s merely a tool – and this was a reminder that it’s always on the carpenter for how effective that tool is used.
Still, there’s plenty of signal that this Heavy Trend is only gaining momentum, including steam from some of the brightest minds in the league. A total of 22 tight ends were selected during the 2026 NFL Draft, several of whom were blocking-first prospects taken above consensus. TEs were also a huge priority in Free Agency, too.
Notably, Ben Johnson (Bears), Liam Coen (Jaguars), and Mike McDaniel (Chargers) seem to be really embracing “Heavy.” These are “carpenters” that I trust to use Heavy Personnel the right way.
Many others will try, and likely fail. Others might not have the right ingredients (players) to execute it effectively. As Sanderson writes, “Like any schematic approach in any sport, the edge is only as strong as the personnel you have to execute it.”
When well-executed, with the right players, Heavy Packages can unlock massive upside. Remember, the only 2 WRs to average 20+ PPR FPPG in 2025 were Puka and JSN, whose playcallers utilized Heavy Personnel at the Top-2 rates.
Why Does Heavy Personnel Even Matter?
Heavy Personnel offenses can drastically improve fantasy outcomes, especially for the WR1 and/or a high-end pass-catching TE, because it increases target concentration & reduces competition.
Intuitively, when a WR is competing with a blocking-specialist TE or FB for looks, they are far more likely to see the ball come their way. An easier path to volume = an easier path to fantasy production. Per Ryan Heath, all of Targets per Route, Yards per Route, and Fantasy Points per Route increase dramatically for WRs in Heavy Sets:
To further illustrate, JSN ran 37.8% of his routes with two or fewer WRs on the field, but those plays produced 51% of his receiving yards and 48% of his fantasy points.
In 1- and 2-WR sets, Puka Nacua averaged a completely insane 6.25 YPRR last year.
On the run-heavy Falcons, Drake London averaged 19.8 FPPG (WR3) with Penix at QB, while averaging 4.2 tgts a game with two or fewer WRs on the field. Zay Flowers was the WR12 in FPPG despite ranking 25th in targets (this jumps to WR10 in games with Lamar).
Identifying the WR who will take the field in 13 Personnel, and the two who will dominate 2-WR sets, will likely be the skeleton key for identifying The Next JSN / 2026’s League-Winning WRs.
Between now and the end of draft season, we must vigilantly track coach speak, practice reports, and eventually pre-season usage to ascertain clues on who will play in heavier formations for teams intending to use them more frequently.
Below, I identify players who fit this mold, as well as others who still have “Next JSN Upside” even if their teams do not appear to be following the Heavy Trends.
First Check if these Wide Receivers Fell….
While all the “Next JSN Candidates” that I dive deep into have an ADP in the mid-third or later, there are a few WRs who are already bonafide WR1 Unicorns that sometimes slip into Round 3:
- AJ Brown 🐺- The Wolf: 20 ADP: 22
- Malik Nabers🐺 – The Wolf: 22 ADP: 31
- George Pickens🐺 – The Wolf: 23 ADP: 25
Considering I have Brown, Pickens, and Nabers ranked in Round 2, I absolutely love any time I can get them in Round 3. As a reminder of why I am so high:
Brown: Elite QB + Elite Play Caller + Minimal Target Competition = The best environment among all WRs in all of fantasy. If the knee isn’t a major issue, and Brown’s (minor) 2025 decline was largely motivational, he has genuine Round 1, Top-5 WR upside. If he’s the AJ Brown we’ve known throughout his career, he could be the WR1.
Pickens: More FPPG than Lamb on the year, including if you limit that to just the full games they played together (and remove Pickens’ league-wrecking blow-ups). Pickens will now be moved around the formation more and has even more chemistry / familiarity with Dak and the offense. If Lamb gets hurt, Pickens was on pace to set records (over 2000 yards, 23 TDs, 26.5 FPPG, most all-time)
Nabers: Nagy or not, Nabers is a Top-3 WR talent in this league when healthy. All camp clips and reports suggest he is close to full strength and will be ready for Week 1. He’d be a shoo-in first rounder if not for the injury, so now getting him in Round 2 / 3 when his surgery is looking like a non-factor = ludicrous steal.
If any of those three fall into Round 3, scoop them and don’t blink. If not, here are some other amazing WRs with genuine Top-5 Upside that could be The Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba:
THE NEXT JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA: ROUND 3 WIDE RECEIVER TARGETS
CHRIS OLAVE, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Wolf: 25th overall, 27 ADP
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? YES
- Brilliant OC? Kellen Moore for WR Production= YES. Fast-pace
- QB Play? YES, Tyler Shough for a full year will do wonders
- Competition Removal? NO. In fact, Jordyn Tyson was added, but he is now out 2+ months
- Near Every-Down role? YES, 7th in total routes. Saints’ draft moves suggest more 12P & 13P coming
Full Breakdown:
Touting Chris Olave as a bonafide WR1 available in Round 3 is quite easy, considering he just finished:
- 5th in targets (156)
- 5th in receptions (100)
- 7th in yards (1163)
- 6th in TDs (9)
- 1st in Air Yards (1841)
- 6th in Fantasy Points (268)
All of which were career-highs.
Yet, if the end of 2025, particularly once Tyler Shough took over, was any indication, Olave is still just scratching the surface.
Shough made his first start in Week 9, and got demolished by the Rams. From, that point on (Week 10 onward), Olave averaged 20.19 FPPG (up from 14.08), 86.14 yards per game (up from 62.2), and 0.86 TDs per game (up from 0.33), despite seeing nearly identical volume (9.86 targets vs. 9.67).
20.1 FPPG would’ve ranked as the WR3, ahead of Ja’Marr Chase and behind only Puka and JSN.
Indeed, Shough was just that much better than Spencer Rattler, both for Olave and for the offense as a whole.
As NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill wrote, “The ball went downfield more often. The touchdowns came more often. The passing game felt like it had real rhythm instead of one player trying to drag it along.”
Underhill then revealed an even more interesting stat: “Chris averaged 3.07 yards of separation on targets from Spencer Rattler and 2.80 yards on targets from Shough. So, no, this is not as simple as saying Kellen Moore or Tyler Shough got Olave more open. The opposite is true.
And that’s actually extremely good news because it means Shough trusted Olave in tighter windows and threw with more anticipation. It means he was willing to throw before Chris was clearly uncovered and attack the intermediate parts of the field, where NFL throws have to be made.”
Eventually, Olave will face stiffer target competition, as explosive rookie Jordyn Tyson was selected with the No.8 overall pick. He commanded a whopping 41% yardage share and 31.3% target rate, and has Alpha upside.
Yet, Tyson is also going to be out for 2+ months with yet another hamstring injury:
Moreover, when Tyson does return, he will absolutely alleviate some pressure from Olave too. He’ll reduce the amount of tilted coverage Olave must face, and will allow Moore to move Olave around more frequently. Underhill highlights:
“Olave does not have to live as the lone outside answer. He can play more from the slot, from reduced splits, in motion, on crossers, on option routes, on deep overs and on the intermediate routes where Shough was most comfortable. Tyson’s presence allows Olave to be deployed as a problem instead of being treated as the entire passing game.”
Ultimately, Tyson may impact the raw volume Olave sees, but the quality should increase drastically to more-than offset this. Don’t forget, Moore runs one of the fastest pace offenses in the league. He ranks 6th-most in plays per game (62.1) since 2021, and his offenses have ranked 4th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 24th, and 1st in pace. This creates a larger pie for both mouths to eat.
In the meantime, Olave has been thriving in Tyson’s absence:
The only true Red Flag is Olave’s concussion history. He stayed healthy throughout 2025, but remember Olave has suffered at least 4-5 concussions, including multiple in 2024, that had him contemplating retirement. Even just 1 more concussion could shift Olave’s career trajectory, and that risk can’t be ignored.
Ultimately though, we just saw Olave hit a WR6 finish while playing with abysmal quarterback play until Week 10. Even just repeating his stats from last year would pay off this Round 3 price. However, Olave could potentially smash if he and Shough continue building off their phenomenal 2025 finish (Olave = WR3, behind only Puka and Chase when with Shough!). Tyson could complicate things upon his return, but it’s just as likely he opens up the field more, and that Olave is just too established to relinquish his dominant target share at that point.
DEVONTA SMITH, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Wolf: 28 overall, 34 ADP
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? YES
- Brilliant OC? Sean Mannion is being called an “evil genius.” TBD, but love the McVay roots.
- QB Play? GOOD ENOUGH. AJB was Top-5 WR in back-to-back years with Hurts.
- Competition Removal? YES YES YES. AJ Brown gone.
- Near Every-Down role? YES & Eagles run a lot of Heavy Sets
After Chris Olave in the hunt for “The Next JSN,” Devonta Smith is my personal favorite bet.
This may seem bold for a player who’s never finished higher than WR9 (256 FPs in 2022), but Smith is about to erupt and showcase the fantasy upside that has been trapped inside for too long.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: AJ Brown is gone, which opens up a massive opportunity gap. AJ Brown averaged 31.5% target share over the past two seasons and had the highest first-read target share of any player in the NFL over the past two seasons, too.
We only have Smith in 5 games without AJ Brown, but The Slim Reaper averages 6.2 rec (9.0 tgts), 87.8 Yards, and 0.2 TDs. His per-route efficiency notably spikes as well.
Since 2022, Devonta Smith has run 187 routes without Brown on the field. In that situation, he’s averaged:
- 2.59 Yards per Route Run (~WR8)
- 0.31 Targets per Route Run (~WR6)
- 0.61 Expected Fantasy Points per Route Run (~WR4)
- For comparison, with Brown on the field:
- 1.99 YPRR (~WR25)
- 0.21 TPRR (~WR43)
- 0.42 XFP/RR (~WR28)
Ultimately, Smith would equal a full season pace of 105 rec (153 tgts) 1,492.6 Yards and 3.4 TDs. Even with those paltry TD numbers, Smith’s 16.18 FPPG would’ve ranked WR10 last year.
However, I think there’s a real case that WR10 is the floor.
Even before Brown was traded, the Philadelphia Beat writers speculated, “ If A.J. Brown is traded, DeVonta Smith will immediately become the focal point of the passing offense…There are some within the Eagles’ organization who believe that if Brown were no longer with the team that Smith can have a similar jump in production that Jaxon Smith-Njigba had in Seattle once DK Metcalf was out of the way.”
NFL Insider James Palmer added another log to the fire, detailing Smith’s mindset about his new role: “What I have been told this offseason is he has been a man possessed about ‘I am going to step into this number one role.’ Calling former receivers, asking them about different things this offseason.”
According to Palmer, Nick Sirianni added: ‘We’ve just scratched the surface with DeVonta Smith… in this new offense, we do so much more with him.”
This new offense, led by Sean Mannion, seems very promising. Though he never coached directly with Sean McVay, Mannion did play under McVay from 2017-2018, and coached with McVay’s disciple Matt LaFleur over in Green Bay. As such, the Philly Inquirer believes the Eagles offense “is expected to have some Shanahan/McVay influences.”
At minimum, the players seem to like Mannion. Left tackle Jordan Mailata gushed: “If I were to lock the three smartest people in the building in a room, Sean would be there by himself.” Mailata also referred to him as an “evil genius” and a “wizard.”
Mannion suggested his offense will feature more under-center work, more motion, and more play-action. All of those can be major efficiency unlocks in the passing game. Jalen Hurts and Mannion have “hit it off,” and Hurts is as “open as he’s ever been” to playing more under center and more play-action.
92.7% of Hurts’ dropbacks have come from the shotgun over the past five seasons (the most of any 2026 starting quarterback), but Hurts is actually the QB1 in Fantasy Points per Under Center Dropback. Additionally, this offense is expected to feature more over-the-middle throws and lay-up horizontal routes, both of which fit Smith’s wheelhouse to a tee.
In fact, Smith very-well could be used in a Puka Nacua-inspired role.
But is he talented enough to shoulder a WR1 workload?
Many seem to have forgotten Smith’s Heisman-winning 2020 collegiate season. 117 catches (148 targets), 1856 yards, and a whopping 23 TDs. Smith truly could not be contained, but his junior season may be even more impressive.
Despite competing with Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs– all NFL talents and top-15 picks- Smith paced the 2019 Alabama team with 1256 yards and 14 TDs, despite seeing just 92 targets, nearly 20 fewer than Jeudy.
On a per-route basis, Smith averaged 3.64 yards per route run that junior season, which is very solid. Since 2016, this ranked 7th all-time among top-15 picks. However, the senior season is astonishing:
4.58 Yards per Route Run! To go with some record-breaking, elite final statistics (1856 yards, 23 TDs).
This, of course, was college. We can’t cling to this and expect Smith will suddenly regain this elite form six years later, against stiffer competition.
Yet, a few statistics showcase Smith’s promising Target Hog Upside.
First, Smith is sixth in Yards per First Read Target across the past three seasons. This is on 220 first read looks, so a strong sample size.
He also joins Nico Collins as the only player to rank top-15 in yards per first-read target for three straight seasons.
Additionally, based on Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Smith is an elite man-coverage beater. Harmon’s 2025 Data isn’t available yet, but Smith’s 2024 profile shows his 78.3% success rate vs. man was No. 2 in the league, behind only CeeDee Lamb and ahead of JSN, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.
Admittedly, Smith often faced lesser corner competition by playing alongside AJ Brown, and he played a healthy amount of snaps out of the slot, but that success rate vs. man (95th percentile) is still highly impressive.
Smith was also in the 90th percentile for success vs. press (80%), and a solid 81.2% against zone too. Ultimately, Gibbs used this data to paint the picture of the “Wide Receivers Who Can Win Against Any Coverage.” Smith was on the short list of 12 total, which did not include AJ Brown.
Ultimately, Smith can run any route and succeed against any coverage type. He’s ascending into a massive opportunity gap with AJ Brown gone, just as a new playcaller with a McVay/Shanahan backbone takes the reins and introduces more passing-game efficiency hacks.
Both Eagles’ insiders and even the staff are comparing Devonta’s upside to Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and I fully buy it. Once AJB, Pickens, and Rice are gone, Smith is my favorite Round 3 pick. I have him at the very top of Round 3 (26 overall), but he currently falls to 35th, creating one of the best investing opportunities of 2026.
THE NEXT JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA: ROUND 4-5 WR TARGETS
ZAY FLOWERS, BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Wolf: 32 overall, 37 ADP
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? YES
- Brilliant OC? Declan Doyle comes from Ben Johnson Tree & is getting rave reviews
- QB Play? YES. Lamar is among the best under-center & play-action passers, both set to spike under Doyle.
- Competition Removal? Sure. Isaiah Likely had solid TPRR numbers, but Ja’Kobi Lane & Elijah Sarratt big rookie additions.
- Near Every-Down role? 99.1% Route Participation (WR4) last year. Less Heavy expected, but this might actually help (more 3 WR sets & overall pass volume)
Last year, Zay Flowers finished as the WR7 in fantasy points (249), 8th in receptions (86), and 6th in yards (1211), despite ranking just 16th in targets (118) and 26th in routes (463). That is some epic efficiency.
Flowers ranked 5th in yards per route (2.62), 4th in Route Share (99.1%), and 5th in target share (29%). Flowers was third among a group of only 8 WRs who had YPRR above 2.00 and Route Win above 15% (he was at 16%). Flowers trailed only Puka and JSN on this list, per Jacob Gibbs:
Flowers has been impressive since day one, and he has only continued to improve. He has gone from 206 PPR FPs, to 210 FPs, and then 249. Over these three seasons, he joins a list of only 31 WRs since 2000 to record 3000+ yards through their first three seasons, with Flowers 22nd all-time, sandwiched between Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, and Calvin Johnson.
Despite Zay’s WR7 finish last year and electric start to his career, plus the fact that he’s just entering his prime, Flowers is currently drafted as the WR14 off the board. There’s plenty of reason to expect Flowers to continue to ascend.
For one, the Ravens ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (24.8) last season. Unfortunately, that’s in line with Lamar’s career average, but last year the Ravens averaged 28 attempts per game with a healthy Jackson. This would equal roughly 480 attempts. At Zay’s historic target rate, he would see roughly 134-140 targets if the Ravens hit that threshold, which would put him on pace for 1200+ yards this season.
What if new OC Declan Doyle decides to air it out even more, though? The Bears offense he was with last year ranked 6th in the league with 34.9 attempts.
Shoot, if Flowers can just get to the same number of routes as DJ Moore (who played for new Doyle last year), and maintain his efficiency, Flowers would’ve scored 40 more PPR FPs last season!
Just a slight volume increase would be massive. However, the quality of that volume could improve under Doyle too, especially in the way he schemes up Flowers.
Per Matt Harmon, Flowers ranks in the 92nd percentile historically in success rate versus zone coverage. This is really important, because given the way defenses now play, a zone-beater is the type of player that piles up these insane target shares.
Based on the 2025 Data, Flowers took a leap in his success vs. man too:
Based on Zay’s coverage + route tree success rates and underlying metrics, Harmon’s new player comp tool drew some very interesting comparisons for Flowers:
Two Tyreek Hill comps, and two Amon-Ra St. Brown. Woah baby.
With Tyreek in mind: Flowers was WR7 in gains of 20+ yards last year and is one of only four WRs to rank Top-10 in back-to-back seasons (Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Pickens, and Courtland Sutton are also on the list. He absolutely can burn you deep and gain chunks on explosives, even in low-volume attacks.
But the Amon-Ra St. Brown comp is the one I really want to zoom in on.
Doyle is Ben Johnson’s protege. Everyone loves to draw the “Burden as the Next Amon-Ra” comp, and deservedly so (more on him later). But what if Doyle casts Flowers into a St. Brown inspired slot role?
Departing Todd Monken was a great schemer, but Zay’s upside would be limitless with this type of usage.
Flowers has already gushed about Doyle, ““He a genius. He got stuff that I’ve never seen. Plays and routes and stuff to help you get open. He teaches you in a certain way where you remember the plays. … I’ve been loving it so far.”
Lamar Jackson called the offense “mind-blowing” in “the way Declan Doyle calls plays and his creativity with his mind — how detailed he is… I feel like there’s going to be a lot of explosiveness this year.”
Per Fantasy Points Data, Flowers ranks 2nd among all WRs and TEs in Missed Tackles Forced per Reception since 2021. First is Deebo Samuel (0.36), but his 6.6 aDot is significantly lower than Flowers’ 10.0.
Flowers may not look exactly like St. Brown, but he definitely brings some sneaky after-the-catch juice.
Additionally, Ben Johnson and presumably Doyle love play-action and under-center passing. His Bears ranked 2nd in play-action rate (33%) in 2025, and more of this in Baltimore would be absolutely massive.
Lamar Jackson is the No.1 in passer rating from play action in both 2024 and 2025. Additionally, over the past four years under-center, Jackson leads the NFL in completion rate. He’s the QB five in yards per pass attempt, and he’s at an absurd 11% touchdown rate under center. For context, a 6% TD rate is considered elite, and 11% would be a historical outlier in efficiency.
Meanwhile, Flowers himself ranked 2nd in play-action yards (549) last year, trailing only JSN. Any boost in play-action and under-center passing would be massive, especially for Flowers’ TD ceiling.
TDs have been the main bugaboo for Flowers thus far. He’s scored just 6, 4, and 5 TDs through three career seasons (15 total). In that same span, St. Brown has scored 33 TDs.
If an ASB-inspired role, and more under-center + play-action passing can help Zay improve his TD numbers, he could absolutely leap from WR7 to the Top-3, had-to-have it WRs.
Zay’s so damn good. He’s already hit the Top-10 for fantasy. With just a little more team passing (especially more play-action and under-center looks), plus some unique “ASB” type of scheming, and just a bit of TD luck, Zay would explode into the elite. At his price, you just need the floor anyway.
Devonta Smith may be my first bet for the “Next JSN” level ascension, but Flowers is an easy second.
Update: 7/23: Ravens HC Jesse Minter opened camp by saying he wants to get Zay Flowers the ball in “as many ways as possible.”
“The more that guy touches the ball, the better we’ll be. He has a very, very unique skillset … he can play any position. He can do everything.” BOING
LUTHER BURDEN, CHICAGO BEARS
The Wolf: 35 overall, 55 ADP (+20)
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? FLASHES, YES!
- Brilliant OC? UH, YES! Ben Johnson = God.
- QB Play? YES. Caleb Williams only improving
- Competition Removal? YES. DJ Moore = big mouth removed (& Zaccheus ALSO gone).
- Near Every-Down role? YES & Bears showing signs of more 12P & 13P in 2026
Luther Burden probably has the lowest floor, but also the highest ceiling, of all these “Next JSN” candidates.
On the positive, Burden was among the most efficient WRs in the entire league last year. He finished third in the NFL in YPRR (2.71), trailing only Puka and JSN.
This would rank second All-Time among rookie WRs, and look at the company Burden joins:
The sample size was admittedly small, but Burden also completely passes the eyeball test. He clearly has “it,” and Burden’s tape pops as much as any player in the NFL, especially when the ball is in his hands. The violent nature of Burden’s explosiveness is incredibly rare.
If you need some blood-flow, watch Burden’s 9 tgt, 8 rec, 138 yard, 1 TD, WR1 performance in a shootout vs. SF. My God, the way he took over that game was special.
The negative? Burden played behind Olamide f’ing Zaccheus for the vast majority of his rookie season, ultimately running just 234 routes (WR95) with 44.6% route participation (WR91).
Somehow, despite just 42% of the snaps, Burden finished with 11 gains of 20+ (tied with Chris Olave), and actually led the Bears with 358 yards produced on gains of 20+. He ranked 16th in the entire NFL in YAC, despite ranking 123rd in snap share. Again, glimpses of Super Stardom.
He’s not just a slot WR, either. Per FantasyPoints Data:
Thankfully, both DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheus are now gone, leaving the Bears with the 5th most Available Air Yards (1555) and the third-most vacated WR targets (149). Ben Johnson has also typically brought rookies along slowly, including Amon-Ra St. Brown himself, who didn’t see meaningful snaps until Week 13 of his rookie year.
By all accounts, Burden is expected to “take on a full-time role and coaches expect him to explode.”
Johnson’s quotes have certainly been bullish so far:
“I’m buying Luther Burden stock right now. … He looks like he’s playing at a different speed right now. It’s been electric. He showed up yesterday, had numerous explosive plays. I loved how in Phase 2 he was finishing every single rep that he took…He’s still developing and growing his route tree. He’s been extremely coachable, so I’m really happy with him.
“I think when we drafted him, we saw an explosive athlete who was really dangerous with the ball in his hands….The question was how can we get it in his hands? The easy things to do are screens or short throws. But I think there’s a lot more to his game that we’ve worked to unlock, and he’s been really receptive to how we can get that done.”
Indeed, even with Moore (and Zaccheus) gone, the Bears feature plenty of mouths to feed, as Colston Loveland is a monster, and Rome Odunze was on his way to a massive breakout before his foot injury. Yet, under Johnson, there’s room for multiple mouths to eat, considering:
- Ben Johnson’s 4 NFL offenses have all ranked: ✅ Top 9 in points ✅ Top 10 in passing yards ✅ Top 10 in passing TDs
- Johnson’s 2024 Lions produced: ✅ The WR7 in PPR PPG ✅ The WR26 ✅ The TE9
With Loveland priced at the Round 3/4 Turn, Burden in Round 4, and Odunze in Round 5 / 6, someone will disappoint. I am diving into all 3, but Burden is the name I am clicking the most.
Lastly, Burden’s true ceiling might be the WR1 if he nails down the No.1 WR in Heavy Personnel. After drafting Sam Roush, Johnson seems to be embracing the 3-TE craze, and he’s the type of playcaller I actually trust to utilize it properly. Burden’s 5.05 YPRR trailed only Puka (6.25) out of 1- and 2-WR sets, besting even #3 JSN (4.84).
Since the start of Training Camp, the hype was most definitely carrying over from OTAs, if not picking up even more steam:
“Luther Burden III got a TON of targets — inside & outside, flashed quicker route running”
Caleb Williams: “He makes the first guy miss every time. That’s his trait. He catches everything. He’s a friendly receiver to the QB….We all believe in Luther. The whole org…He said it himself, he’s a problem.”
If nothing else, Jared Smola boils it down to an oversimplification that still illuminates Burden’s ceiling:
“Yes, this is oversimplifying it. No, Luther Burden is not likely to match last year’s efficiency in a bigger role. But let’s just have some fun! Give Burden his 0.56 PPR points per route last year on DJ Moore’s 558 routes … And you get 310.5 PPR points. Only 4 WRs beat that total last year.”
Unfortunately, Burden suffered a groin injury. He is set to miss most of the preseason now, but this slow treatment is being labeled “precautionary.” By all accounts, Burden will be ready for Week 1. He was even seen jogging ahead of Preseason Week 1:
Ideally, this injury will cause Burden to fall to Round 5 in 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts, where he’s an absolute steal. Ultimately, I’m still buying Burden in Round 4 though. This requires a significant leap of faith, but I trust what my eyes saw, what the efficiency metrics tell us, and what Ben Johnson can scheme. Burden could be an absolute monster who, like JSN this season, explodes into a “Round 1 No Brainer” come next year.
LADD MCCONKEY, LA CHARGERS
The Wolf: 34 overall, 43 ADP, +9
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? FLASHES, YES!
- Brilliant OC? YES. Mike McDaniel = MASSIVE Upgrade
- QB Play? YES. Justin Herbert = elite
- Competition Removal? YES. Keenan Allen led the team with 122 targets last year! Huge cock-block gone.
- Near Every-Down role? SHOULD BE. Chargers show signs of more Heavy P. Will it be Ladd in 1 WR sets?
The Athletic speculates Ladd is set “to be the No.1 option” and will “operate in some of the same ways Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle did in Miami.” This will involve plenty of crossing routes to generate YAC opportunities, and Ladd has thrived on crossers, despite being heavily underutilized in this area. If he can be the “1 WR” in 13 Personnel, Ladd truly has the upside to be the 2026 JSN Breakout.
As of right now, it seems like Ladd is absolutely dominating camp in this new system, which has him screaming up my Draft Board. In fact, Daniel Jeremiah came away from camp so bullish, he claims “Ladd was put on this earth to play in this offense”:
Ladd McConkey also posted the 6th-best YPRR for a rookie ever (2.59), ranking behind only Odell Beckham (2.75), Luther Burden (2.69!), AJ Brown (2.67), Justin Jefferson (2.66), and Puka Nacua (2.59).
Yet, last year’s drop off was quite dramatic. McConkey fell from the WR13 finish to the WR30, his YPRR falling to 1.4.
I do think McDaniel is absolutely the right play-caller to get McConkey back to his rookie-year form. But before I go head-over-heels, I need to ensure he’s set to be the top dog in Heavy Sets. Training Camp seems to suggest this, but it’s not a guarantee, especially with McDaniel hyping up Quentin Johnston.
Johnston goes 4-5+ rounds later, but he has a YAC skillset that perfectly fits the McDaniel offense. He was 2nd in MTF / rec (0.25) in 2025, and McDaniel has drawn some lofty comparisons with QJ:
“I think he’s a guy that has some traits in his game that are similar to some very powerful, explosive, productive receivers that I’ve had in the past, namely Julio (Jones) and Andre (Johnson) and so we’re pushing him.” To even be mentioned in the same breath as these former super stars suggests just how high QJ’s ceiling is and, after OTAs, McDaniel feels QJ is beginning to approach it: “You’d be hard pressed to find a guy that’s grown more specifically in the last week than Q.”
QJ is one of the most dynamic size-speed YAC threats to enter the league, and one who has dramatically improved every season after entering the league as a raw prospect. While I agree with the majority that Ladd will probably pace this team in targets, it’s not a lock – and definitely not enough of a certainty to justify 4-5+ rounds of price difference… unless QJ keeps dropping the rock:
I will continue monitoring Chargers’ camp very closely to see if any clues emerge about their WR usage, particularly in heavy-personnel. If McConkey is clearly ahead, I will be stuffing my bags. With the injuries to Burden and Waddle, I have been drafting Ladd more and more at that Round 3 /4 turn, and think he’s a steal in the middle of Round 4 with his current 43rd ADP.
Other Next JSN Candidates that I Like, but don’t LOVE:
The next two players are guys who check many, if not all, of The Next JSN Boxes. However, they have a few more warts or question marks to their profiles that I don’t love them at the same level as the first four:
TERRY MCLAURIN, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
The Wolf: 39 overall, 56 ADP, +17
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? Maybe a step down from elite, but VERY good
- Brilliant OC? Possibly. Reports on David Blough = very promising
- QB Play? As long as Jayden Daniels is healthy….
- Competition Removal? EH. Deebo Samuel paced Commanders in targets last year, but Stefon Diggs was added.
- Near Every-Down role? YES.
I was incredibly high on McLaurin entering Training Camp. His stock has dropped some with the loss of stalwart LT Laremy Tunsil, plus the addition of target-vacuum Stefon Diggs.
Still, I remain massively high on McLaurin relative to his price (+17 spots), and still see reason that 2026 could be a career-best. Let’s dive in:
Fresh off a camp holdout and then massive extension, Terry McLaurin’s 2025 was a massive disappointment.
Both he and Jayden Daniels were hurt for the vast majority of 2025, and McLaurin ultimately finished as the WR37 in FPPG. After a WR7 finish the year prior, McLaurin regressed dramatically.
Yet, his downturn is entirely understandable. After holding out, McLaurin wasn’t in game-shape, and ultimately suffered injuries because of it. By the time McLaurin was back, Daniels was done, and the whole team was crumbling.
Especially at McLaurin’s now-depressed price, I will be a heavy buyer.
The Commanders let Deebo Samuel leave and added Stefon Diggs to the WR room, along with rookie Antonio Williams. Diggs is a HOG, but McLaurin could easily beat his career-high 23.6% target share in 2026.
That’s especially true because new OC David Blough has pretty much promised this. When asked about his offense, Blough said: “This thing’s going to be built around how do we get Terry 10 targets a game and get him explosive receptions after explosive receptions to kind of flip the field.”
The Athletic wrote, “No one sounds happier about Blough’s offense than McLaurin. The veteran receiver has played for three other offensive coordinators and with a total of 13 starting quarterbacks during his seven seasons in Washington. In many of those circumstances, similar questions have come up: Why can’t they get McLaurin involved earlier? Why can’t they get him the ball more often? Why do they only line him up on the left side?
But in Blough’s offense, McLaurin said, “he’ll be used all over, better allowing him to use his versatility.”
“I think the multitude of formations and route combinations is going to give all of us flexibility to move around the formation, keep the defense on their toes and have a lot of routes that may look similar at the stem but different at the top,” McLaurin said last week. “… I love that because that allows me to present the same stem to these DBs, but they have to respect (that) I can go left, right, I can go vertical because I can still run by you, I could stop or I could go in. Just having those types of variations in your route tree is just an unbelievable weapon to have as a receiver.”
Under Kingsbury, McLaurin hardly ever moved, with 81.6% of routes from left alignment. Yet, McLaurin averaged 2.05 YPRR and 0.47 FP/RR from the left, compared to 2.61 YPRR and 0.62 FP/RR from the right. It’s not a massive difference, but still, McLaurin will only benefit from less stubborn, locked-in usage.
Once he returned healthy, McLaurin flashed his typical upside, too. He ended up finishing 4th in First Downs per Route Run, trailing only Puka, JSN, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the highly-predictive stat:
Ultimately, I have always loved McLaurin, and 2026 looks like the best setup of his career if Daniels can remain healthy. Diggs will definiteley be some tough target competition, but McLaurin is the incumbent who has been schemed around all offseason. Terry will be moved around into the most advantageous situations of his career.
At minimum, a repeat of his WR7 Finish from 2024 (when he averaged 6.7 targets in a left-side-only role) feels very plausible. The WR22 price is extremely reasonable, and one I will continue hammering all offseason, Diggs or no Diggs.
JAYLEN WADDLE, DENVER BRONCOS
The Wolf: 41 overall, 48 ADP
TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”
- Elite Talent? YES – ELITE PER ROUTE EFFICIENCY
- Brilliant OC? YES. Sean Payton + Davis Webb = elite duo.
- QB Play? YES. Bo Nix among the best young QBs in the game.
- Competition Removal? YES. Will no longer be contending with Tyreek Hill, Massive W.
- Near Every-Down role? Questionable. Payton loves his WR rotations, but they paid a steep price to play games here.
The Broncos acquired Jaylen Waddle in exchange for 2026 first, third, and fourth round draft picks, setting the stage for Waddle’s best fantasy season in years, and possibly ever.
Waddle has been incredibly efficient throughout his career, but has largely been hidden within the massive shadow of Tyreek Hill. He was a target-hog as a rookie before Hill’s arrival, accruing 140 looks in Year 1, and ultimately finishing as the WR12.
The following year, on just 116 targets (WR23), Waddle finished as the WR8 in fantasy, posting one of the most efficient seasons we’ve ever seen – he was No.2 in FPs over Expectation, and finished with 75 receptions, 1356 yards, a league-high 18.1 yards per catch, and 8 TDs.
Unfortunately, the Dolphins and Waddle have struggled to regain that success. Waddle’s still been efficient, as since 2022, Waddle’s 2.44 YPRR ranks 8th best among WRs. More impressively, he achieved this on just 23.7% first-read rate; of the other seven WRs on the list, six of them had first-read rates of 32% or higher (including Waddle’s teammate Tyreek Hill).
Eyeball test, Waddle has some insane juice. He routes up DBs with ease, and is especially fun once the ball is in his hand. He joins the small list of 8 WRs who hit a YPRR above 2.0 and a route win rate above 15% that we’ve mentioned a few times.
Waddle also ranked 7th in first-downs per route last season at 0.128, which again has been highly-predictive at projecting league-winners:
Waddle spiked to 0.137 first downs / route run after Tyreek went down too, which ranked third. His 30.4% first read target share without Tyreek ranked as the WR12.
Moreover, Waddle has run 519 routes with Tyreek Hill off the field since 2022. On them, he’s averaged:
- 0.29 TPRR (~WR8)
- 2.84 YPRR (WR3)
For perspective, if he were to run as many routes as Courtland Sutton did in 2025 at that efficiency:
- 1,559 receiving yards, 159 targets, 17.4 FPG
Waddle now enters a far more stable Broncos offense, led by the offensive fantasy guru Sean Payton.
I know some worry about Payton’s annoying route rotations, but you don’t pay the price they did for Waddle just to slap him in a rotation with bums like Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant. In fact, Courtland Sutton has finished with 79.1% and 81.7% route participation rates over the past two years, and I’d expect that to be Waddle’s floor.
Shoot, Payton had Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith both run over 75% of routes for the Saints in 2021.
Which is nice, because in games with 75% route participation, Waddle ranks as the WR10 in FPPG.
Some also worry that the Broncos’ defense being so strong means Waddle won’t be in as many “blow up” scripts. Not to fear: the Broncos had the 2nd best defense in the NFL last year, and still ranked 4th in pass attempts.
If anything, new OC Davis Webb might create even more opportunity with a faster-paced offense. By all accounts, Webb’s “stamp” on the Payton offense has been simplifying the offense so they can turn up the tempo. The Broncos ranked 18th in pace last year (29.2 seconds per play), and 17th since Payton was hired in 2023 (28.9), so there’s room to grow here.
Webb has been called a “mad scientist” for his offensive genius. If an ego-maniac like Payton is going to give up playcalling duties for the first time in two decades, just to keep Webb in-house, he must be incredibly confident it makes the offense better.
According to The Athletic, the biggest changes thus far, “has been creating catch-and-run opportunities over the middle of the field.”
Webb, who was Josh Allen’s backup, also likened Waddle’s acquisition to the Bills’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs:
“When I was with Josh Allen going into Year 3, similar to Bo going into Year 3, we traded for Stefon Diggs, and that was a good year. That was a good two-year run in ’20 and ’21, when I was together with them. Just seeing the growth from both players that time, there’s some similarities of what started to happen here. It doesn’t mean it’s going to — we’ve got a long way to go, but man, (Waddle) is good.”
Webb isn’t the only one raving about Waddle so far. According to Sports Illustrated, Waddle’s speed has popped far more than anyone expected:
“We knew Waddle was fast. His explosiveness was no secret when the Broncos acquired him via trade from Miami back in March.
Seeing him on the field, though, in Orange and Blue regalia, his speed and explosiveness were palpable. Compared to what the Broncos have fielded at wide receiver for the past several years, Waddle just looks… different.”
After acknowledging that the Broncos have lacked “an element of explosiveness” over his two years in Denver, Nix provided the full review of Waddle, with a quarterback’s eye for detail.
“You could be first-and-10 and start a drive and go one-and-done because he takes it 75, 80 yards. That’s the kind of weapon that we added, and that’s, I think, what we all have been out here watching and sort of really enjoy watching,” Nix said of Waddle. “Just seeing him get out here and move and run around. You just can’t replace speed. That’s just what he brings to the table.”
“He’s extremely fast with the ball in his hands. He looks like he doesn’t really slow down to make cuts, which is pretty tough to do for a fast guy. He’s just going to add an element of relief for everybody else and take a little bit of the touches so that other guys don’t have to take them all… I think a guy like that makes everybody on the offense better, and then it obviously helps the defense in the same way.”
“Waddle has been in the NFL since 2021, but his stock is about to explode onto a whole other level.”
Oh, and the always-important Jesus Christ comparison, from Sean Payton:
As such, Waddle has been labeled “the missing piece,” and we can expect him to be featured heavily as he elevates this whole offense. Payton’s offenses have been at their deadliest with a hyper-efficient, go-to PPR scam like Marques Colston or, especially, Michael Thomas, and Waddle could thrive in this after-the-catch type role.
Waddle’s injury history and trend of leaving games early due to injury have raised some eyebrows. In fact, he missed close to two weeks of camp with a “soft tissue injury.” He has since returned and looks like his usual, explosive self. Still, many owners are likely rolling their eyes at Waddle given the injury history, and the fact it’s already rearing its ugly head:
Yet, at a Round 4-5 price, that risk is overly baked in and doesn’t account for the insane upside Waddle has with Bo Nix and Sean Payton as the clear featured option.
If Waddle can maintain his elite per-route efficiency, look-out, because this offense should provide far more volume and unleash Waddle in unique ways we’ve yet to see.
Summary: Who is The Next JSN in 2026 Fantasy Football?
Ultimately, I like all of these guys, but love a few more than the others. Given I love RB-RB starts, it’s incredible to still have “Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba” upside lingering in Rounds 3-5 to hammer at WR.
I rank the Next JSN Candidates as follows:
1) Chris Olave (NO)
2) Devonta Smith (PHI)
*
3) Luther Burden
4) Zay Flowers
5) Ladd McConkey
*
6) Terry McLaurin
7) Jaylen Waddle
At their current prices, I am landing a ton of Chris Olave and Devonta Smith in Round 3, followed up by Luther Burden in Round 4 and especially 5. The Dream start is to go RB-RB (i.e. James Cook + Ken Walker) followed up by Devonta, McConkey, and Burden Rounds 3-5.
Ultimately, a blow-up to the level of JSN’s 2025 is unlikely to happen, but all of these WRs have genuine Top-6 Upside, and represent major discounts relative to their potential. I would love to leave every draft with 2 of these WRs and 2 RBs through five rounds, a strategy covered in my 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.
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