Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy, Sell, Hold: Week 6 Market Report

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy, Sell, Hold: Week 6 Market Report

This weekly series analyzes the ever-changing Dynasty fantasy football landscape, aiming to stay more in sync with the market than your league rivals. We will find the right balance between overreacting and underreacting each week to provide the best possible value to our teams. Those who act too quickly or too slowly to what this NFL season tells them each week will see their Dynasty rosters weaken compared to ours.

In Dynasty, we care about the Why about player production on a weekly basis because, ultimately, we want to make decisions on players based on what their careers, or at least a portion of their careers, will look like, not just the rest of this NFL season. Player value in the long term is far more important to us than short-term production.

Unless specified otherwise, Rankings are referenced from KeepTradeCut (“KTC”) for SuperFlex (2 QB) Leagues. I will list players by position rank, then overall rank (E.g. WR4, RNK 11)

Please reach out to me on Twitter (@Lboyle_FF) or Reddit (u/DortcherChamber) if you have any questions!

See:

Week 6 Notes

The NFL is starting to look more and more like the NBA! Davante Adams and Amari Cooper find themselves in immensely better situations! If only someone had informed you about the potential of these trades…

Here’s what I wrote in the past two weeks about Cooper and Garrett Wilson:

“On contending teams with some holes, I want to buy Amari before Watson officially gets benched or before Amari gets traded. This does not come without risk, but at the cost of a late 2025 2nd, it is a well-calculated one worth taking. After all, Amari offers immense upside.”

Week 5 Market Report

“I want out on Wilson, especially before any chance of a Davante Adams trade. I do think he is very talented, but I am beginning to realize that he is not in the upper echelon of Elite WRs. Give me A.J. BrownPuka Nacua, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers, etc, instead.

Week 4 Market Report

TRENDING UP

JOSH DOWNS, INDIANAPOLIS (WR40, RNK 101)

I don’t think people realize how good Josh Downs is.

In the four games he’s played this season, Downs leads the Colts receivers in

  • Receptions (27)
  • Yards (239)
  • Targets Share (26.3%)
  • Targets per Route Run (0.34)
  • Yards per Route Run (2.34)
  • First Read Targets Share (34%)
  • First Downs per Route Run (0.147)
  • Fantasy Points per Game (15.7)

He has completely alpha’d Michael Pittman Jr., and in the three games played with Joe Flacco, Downs is averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game, which is the equivalent to the WR7.

In the three games with Flacco, Downs leads all WRs (!!!) in first downs per route run (min. 50 routes). While I think the Flacco splits are significant, it needs to be said that this is not some outlier start, but a continuation of the dominance we saw last year from Downs.

Recommendation: Buy

I firmly believe that this is a full-on sophomore season breakout. If you are concerned with his quarterback play, I understand. Regardless of the situation, I always encourage people to acquire talented players in Dynasty. In these market reports, what I am evaluating is significantly affected by the situation, as this is done on a week-to-week basis. If you are bearish on Richardson, you can wait to buy Downs, but I won’t be wasting any time for the 23-year-old at WR40 prices.

DAVID MONTGOMERY, DETROIT LIONS (RB14, RNK 70)

The two-headed backfield is unlike any we have seen in recent memory. Jahmyr Gibbs and Monty are so exciting to watch and produce at a high level. For the past couple of weeks, it’s been noticeable that David Montgomery refuses to be tackled.

Not to mention, Dan Campbell is legitimately in love with him:

Given the contract extension and the fact that he is averaging 18.1 Fantasy points per game, it’s easy to get excited about Montgomery and his future in this offense. The Lions scored 89 points in their last two games. The Patriots have scored 83 points in the entire season.

Montgomery vs. Gibbs:

  • Expected Fantasy Points per Game: 14.1(Monty) vs. 14.6 (Gibbs)
  • Routes: 42 vs. 74
  • Targets: 10 vs. 18
  • Rushing Attempts: 75 vs. 66
  • Rushing Attempts inside the ten: 12 vs. 7
  • Rushing attempts inside the five: 8 vs. 5

In 2023, Monty out-attempted Gibbs 31 to 21 inside the ten and 19 to 11 inside the five despite playing one less game.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy

Montgomery is reasonably priced for what he is: a 27-year-old workhorse RB on a high-scoring offense splitting the expected fantasy points of the backfield almost down the middle. But man, every time I watch the dude and listen to Campbell speak about him, I want to get him on all my teams. He’s an awesome player.

I would try to buy if I had someone like Josh Jacobs or Alvin Kamara. Derrick Henry is on an absolute tear right now, don’t get me wrong, but he’s ranked nine spots above Montgomery, is three years older, and is only averaging 1.0 more expected fantasy point per game.

A.J. BROWN, PHILIDELPHIA EAGLES (WR8, RNK 21)

A.J. + B(ig Justice) is back and bringing the boom. Sunday was a great reminder of just how dominant Brown can be.

Where Brown ranks among all receivers (min 50 routes):

  • Fantasy Points per Game: 23.3 (1st)
  • Fantasy Pointer per Route Run: 0.78 (1st)
  • Yards per Route Run: 3.98 (1st)
  • First Read Target Share: 39.5% (3rd)
  • First Downs per Route Run: 0.169 (3rd)
  • Air Yard Share: 53.2% (1st)

It’s a small sample, but it’s significant. Last year, Brown ranked 5th among all receivers in Receiving Yards and top ten in Yards per Route Run (min 300 routes), Fantasy Points per Game, First Read Target Share, and First Downs per Route Run.

What’s so exciting about Brown this year? For me, it’s how poor the defense has looked and his upcoming schedule.

Recommendation: Buy

I think Brown is a very reasonable buy. There is a decent chance that whoever has A.J. Brown in your league was planning on contending but is finding themselves closer to the rebuilding category. In my experience, missing multiple games of Brown has been painful. Before he continues murdering corners and scoring a ton of points, go and get him. I don’t see why he couldn’t finish the season averaging overall WR1 numbers, given his talent and the state of this defense.

While it could be argued as risky, there is a massive payoff in the ability to act upon a small amount of information (a 2-game sample, in this case) when you have conviction in the player. Offer the struggling A.J. Brown manager Puka Nacua straight up.

DEMARIO DOUGLAS, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (WR63, RNK 167)

Alright, bear with me here. As Jacob notes below, Douglas led the Patriots’ first read target share by a large margin:

Nobody in the Dynasty streets seems to really care about Douglas. Despite an overall bullish start from Drake Maye and the volume he received, he’s only moved up 15 spots on KTC to WR60.

Imagine if Douglass were on the Commanders — what would his price be? I’m not saying I expect Maye to perform at the same level as Jayden Daniels. But if he builds off what he showed on Sunday, this offense could end up looking pretty attractive and, in penny stock fashion, have the No. 1 pass catcher break charts and rise 50+ spots in market price.

Douglas has had a 23.5% and 24.2% Target Share in the past two weeks.

Recommendation: Buy

Douglas should be pretty easy to acquire, given his price tag. He’s in his second year, has a chance to be a part of an offense that raises its scoring floor dramatically, and, if so, is tied to an at-minimum decent Quarterback capable of supporting fantasy points.

COLE KMET, CHICAGO BEARS (TE12, RNK 132)

This offense is starting to click. Sunday marked Kmet’s second game of 24+ points on the season and 2nd game with 70+ receiving yards and a TD. In the past three seasons, Kmet has now had five games of 2+ TDs.

Rank by Position:

  • 2024: TE3 (currently)
  • 2023: TE8
  • 2022: TE7

In the four games Kmet has played over 50% of the snaps in 2024, he averages 14.3 (!) fantasy points per game. At the desolate TE position, that’s game-changing. As Caleb Williams gets more comfortable in the offense, Kmet’s weekly floor and ceiling will only continue to rise.

Recommendation: Buy

Isaiah Likely is still ranked ahead of Kmet in dynasty. What are we doing people? Barely priced as a TE1, Kmet is worth throwing a mid-2025 2nd at. I firmly believe in Caleb and this offense, so a chance to get a young piece attached to it for this cheap is a smash for me.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

  • Joe Burrow
  • Tyrone Tracy
  • Chase Brown
  • Tony Pollard
  • Evan Engram

TRENDING DOWN

KEON COLEMAN, BUFFALO BILLS (WR41, RNK 105)

If Monday Night’s performance wasn’t enough to put the nail in Keon’s redraft value coffin for this season, the Amari Cooper trade surely was. Coleman has no games over 51 yards or four catches, including a week 2 outing at Miami where he was simply running cardio (91% snap rate, 0 targets).

There just hasn’t been anything special that I’ve seen so far from Keon. On his team, he ranks 3rd in yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and expected fantasy points per game. This isn’t super bearish considering that WRs tend to struggle in the first half of rookie seasons. Still, when the competition is Khalil Shakir and an underperforming Dalton Kincaid on a Josh Allen offense, it’s easy to be a little concerned.

I’m not sure how notable Keon’s lack of production/dank stats would be if we hadn’t seen positive production/per route metrics for other rookie receivers drafted at the 1-2 turn in Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr.,

Recommendation: Hold

I’m morally against telling you to sell the falling 33rd overall pick in the 2024 Draft in Week 6.

This is what I envision as the worst case scenario:

By February, Mingo was a surprisingly high WR57 and on the Panthers connected to Bryce Young. I don’t anticipate Keon will fall too much further from this point, but nothing inspires me to tell you to acquire him. I never cared for his profile but thought he offered decent upside with Josh Allen, especially given the (former) lack of star power in the receiving game. Hold on, and hopefully, he’ll flash at some point this season.

TYJAE SPEARS, TENNESSEE TITANS (RB38, RNK 147)

Things are looking up for Tony Pollard and, well… not so much for Tyjae.

Pollard is averaging more than double the expected (15.6 vs. 7.2) and actual (15.2 vs. 7.4) fantasy points per game compared to Spears. The per-game snap share data is not encouraging either:

In the first half of Week 6, Pollard had 57% of the backfield opportunities (including two targets) while Tyjae had 43%; In the second half, Tyjae was hurt and did not see the field again. So, while that 74.5% snap looks really bad, it was entirely circumstantial.

Brian Callahan has doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down that he still wants an even split in this backfield. At this point, I’m more inclined to believe that Pollard is the alpha.

Recommendation: Buy/Hold

Most people will see this past Sunday’s game and think it’s completely over for Tyjae. I think things are pretty bleak, but given how disappointing he’s been and the offense as a whole, I think it’s well worth throwing some low ball offers. If you could get him for a third, that would be a smash.

If you own him, don’t panic. Pollard is a talented back coming off a bad year, and he never should have been pronounced dead by the fantasy community. I still think Spears has some juice; at the very least, he is a high-end handcuff.

SAM LAPORTA, DETROIT LIONS (TE2, RNK 33)

Sam LaPorta is the overall TE17 through six games. The truth is that he never deserved to be ranked as high as he was coming into this season. Laporta is tied for 4th in Yards per Route Run with Kalif Raymond on his own team.

Some (not so) Dank LaPorta stats:

  • Route Share: 65.7%
  • Target Share: 9.2%
  • Expected Fantasy Points per Game: 5.3
  • Fantasy Points per Route Run: 0.35 (Tim Patrick is at 0.38)

I wouldn’t want to force the ball into Sam LaPorta’s hands on an offense with the Sun GodJameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery.

Recommendation: Sell

For some reason, LaPorta still ranks (multiple spots) ahead of the more talented and productive Trey McBride. He also ranks ahead of De’Von Achane, Devonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Jonathan Taylor, and Rashee Rice. I would legitimately consider adding a first to get to Brock Bowers at this point.

KEENAN ALLEN, CHICAGO BEARS (WR68, RNK 185)

Man, maybe he is fat? Refer to the tweet in Kmet’s section, and you will see that Keenan ranks 4th in yards per route run among Bears receivers.

Keenan has had a series of bizarre stat lines:

  • Week 1: 11 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yards – 6.9 Fantasy Points
  • Week 2: Hurt
  • Week 3: Hurt
  • Week 4: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 19 yards – 4.9 Fantasy Points
  • Week 5: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 33 yards – 6.3 Fantasy Points
  • Week 6: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 41 yards, 2 TDs, – 21.1 Fantasy Points

That does not necessarily inspire confidence.

Does he look washed? I’m no film expert, so decide for yourself:

Recommendation: Hold

I’m not sure how significantly worse he is compared to last year, but surely he’s a better bet than Jerry Jeudy, (WR66, RNK 182) right? As Caleb gets better, the offensive pieces benefit. That includes 32 year-old Keenan.

I’d still be willing to hold onto him through the bye and see how he does against the woeful Commanders’ secondary. There are far worse receivers to be starting in Week 8 than Allen.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS, DENVER BRONCOS (RB39, RNK 149)

As Dwain points out, this offense is, in fact, gross. With only 35.5 rushing yards per game, 3.6 yards per carry, and a 47.5% rushing attempt share, there isn’t a ton to be excited about with Javonte.

On the bright side, he’s the clear RB1 in his offense, is 24 years old and was once considered one of the top backs in Dynasty.

Just like Sean Payton was once considered a top coach in the NFL! Maybe the Broncos can figure something out. Do you BOlieve?

Recommendation: Buy

I have nothing to say about Javonte other than that I’m willing to buy him at RB38 prices. Once a highly coveted Dynasty asset and highly drafted startup pick under 25 years old, I feel comfortable throwing a late 2nd (I have to know almost certainly this is 2.10-2.12) if I believe in the talent.

Using the guys around Javonte for example, I’d rather have him over Tyler Allgeier, Tyjae Spears, Rachaad White, Rico Dowdle, and Quentin Johnston. However, I’d rather have Ricky Pearsall, Nick Chubb, and Matthew Stafford.

Honorable Mentions

  • Devin Singletary
  • Allen Lazard
  • Khalil Shakir
  • Adonai Mitchell
  • Ben Sinnott
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