The Best Week 5 Dynasty Sell-High Trade Candidates For Peak Value

While winning the championship is the ultimate goal in fantasy football, dynasty is a value game first, unlike redraft. For rebuilding teams, sell-high moves can flip your roster into a contender faster. Selling high on productive players who could help a contending roster can be emotionally challenging. However, sell-high moves can work for both roster builds if you do it right. You can get out on a player for a quality return or good value and still stay in contention.

Make no mistake, I’m not recommending you sell for nothing. The goal is to get a quality return. Never sell just to sell.

Here are four players that I’m looking to move off of my dynasty rosters this week:

Week 5 Dynasty Sell-High Candidates

Dynasty Sell-High #1: Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

Remember when everyone was touting Jonathan Brooks as the next big thing because he was obviously going to take over Chuba’s job in the Carolina backfield? Well, Pepperidge Farm remembers, and so do I. Hubbard went from a dead-zone running back no one really wanted to someone people now treat like a league winner. That is why he’s a sell-high candidate for me, since the average dynasty manager has the memory of a goldfish.

Running backs are some of my favorite players to pivot from because the general market is terrible at evaluating them beyond their current fantasy points. At running back, if the talent isn’t great to elite, production generally comes from game script, volume, and red-zone opportunity. If efficiency is poor and there’s little receiving work, the floor drops substantially if the offense stalls at all during the season.

I’ll be completely honest: for most running backs, I consider the position overvalued in dynasty. Go to any dynasty forum, and you’ll find this view contrarian. Yes, we still need running backs on our rosters, but you don’t need to overpay for them to win. Remember, dynasty is a value game first. I’ve found that most dynasty managers I’ve played with or helped build their best teams around quality franchise quarterbacks and wide receivers. Running backs were the final pieces to the puzzle.

Chuba is a running back producing right now for fantasy, so people are letting the box score sway them into thinking he’s suddenly a good dynasty asset. He isn’t; he’s just a serviceable running back right now. Take a step back and truly analyze the player and situation.

When you isolate a player’s output to what they create on their own, it can tell you whether they’re benefiting from an offensive hot streak or are independent of external factors. Some of the best stats to do this are yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A), missed tackles forced rate (MTF%), breakaway run rate (BAY%), and yards per route run (YPRR). League averages are ~3.00 YCO/A, ~18 MTF%, ~25 BAY%, and 1.00 YPRR.

Here’s how Chuba’s efficiency stats break down in each week thus far, with the first bullet being his career averages, Week 1-4 averages, and each individual week’s numbers for comparison:

As the chart above shows, Hubbard isn’t a special talent at running back. Week 4 against the porous Detroit Lions defense was a major outlier in his on-the-ground efficiency, which has consistently been on the Mendoza line or worse, and he’s been essentially a non-factor in the receiving game throughout his career. Hubbard has been particularly fortunate in the touchdown department, too, as he’s already scored three on the ground and two through the air. Touchdowns are one of the most volatile stats, so without strong rushing efficiency or volume, he’s more likely to regress from his current 19.8 PPR fantasy points per game.

Hubbard is also a 27-year-old running back with weak long-term team insulation, and unless you’re a special talent, we see a massive decline at 28. Obviously, rebuilding teams should want nothing to do with him because of this. I get why a contender would hold onto him for depth, but trades are happening right now where it makes sense to move him. Here are some examples from the Dynasty Daddy trade database where managers are moving Hubbard as a sell-high candidate:

• Chuba Hubbard for Kyle Monangai and a 2027 second-round pick: I have Hubbard and Monangai in the same tier, so this is a free second-round pick. Both running backs have no real long-term team outlook, and while Monangai seems to be dealing with a minor foot injury (expected to miss 1-2 weeks), I believe they can finish relatively close in PPG by the end of the season, assuming health.
• Chuba Hubbard for Denzel Boston: Boston is doing better than most expected so far this year. Give me the younger, talented wide receiver who’s just getting started over the year-to-year play that Chuba is. I’ll figure out my RB positional needs later.
• Chuba Hubbard for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Adam Randall: Can you believe this is where we’re at with MHJ? What a wild turn for the receiver. This feels uglier than it should, but I’ll bet the rest of MHJ’s career is worth more than whatever is left of Chuba’s. There’s a non-zero chance MHJ gets traded, and that alone would shift the market in his favor. Adam Randall is likely nothing special given where he was drafted, but he’s an upside dart throw who could have value once he returns from his IR stint, should 32-year-old Derrick Henry go down.
• Chuba Hubbard for any first-round pick: this sounds ludicrous, but there were several instances where this actually happened. This is unlikely in savvy leagues, but if you’re in a league full of casuals, I can easily see something like this happening. The “this would never happen in my league” crowd will clamor, but bad trades are part of the game, and they happen in every league at some point. Regardless of contention status, if you can pull off this deal, you should have done it yesterday.

Dynasty Sell-High #2: Kenneth Walker III (KC)

“We get it, you hate running backs!” I can already hear it in the comments section, but that’s not true! I don’t hate any player; I just hate their market value. I actually own Kenneth Walker III on one of my undefeated dynasty teams. He’s absolutely on my trade block, but I’m not giving him away for nothing. Remember, this is a sell-high article!

If you’re a contender, you’re seriously only considering moving Walker if you’re getting a home-run trade offer. Meanwhile, he’s an asset I’d really want to move if I’m a rebuilding team. He has a contract, so his value is somewhat insulated, but the return you can get right now could dramatically speed up your rebuild. Public consensus values Walker like an elite, special dynasty running back such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Jeremiyah Love, and Ashton Jeanty. He’s great, but he should be valued closer to Jonathan Taylor rather than lumped in with elite talents who are all under 25.

Again, I don’t have any problem with Walker as a talent. I think he’s great, and I’m happy to have him as a contending team this year. I just don’t agree with the consensus valuation, and I’d be even more inclined to capitalize on it, which is why I see him as a potential sell-high candidate.

Here are some trades that have happened in real leagues according to the Dynasty Daddy trade database, where I would heavily consider moving Walker:

• Kenneth Walker III for Zay Flowers, Quinshon Judkins, and a 2027 first-round pick: I can see both a rebuilding team and a contending team making this trade, with the latter sending away Walker. Zay Flowers has been elite in efficiency, and the new offensive scheme uses him as a true focal point. I thought Judkins was overvalued as a top-12 RB coming into the season, but his value has since fallen closer to RB15, which is where I had him. The first-round pick is the cherry on top because it lets a contender pivot to another asset if they need one, while giving a rebuilder another coveted draft pick that should only gain value until the rookie draft.
• Kenneth Walker III for Jadarian Price, and two 2027 first-round picks: Price has disappointed more than once, both in real life and in fantasy. He was also a running back whose price, pun intended, I hated coming into the season. People were taking him with early first-round picks, while I had him closer to the mid-to-late first round of this year’s class. Realistically, I’d argue two firsts are more than a fair price for Walker, so this just gives Price a free top pick, which could pay off given how much the Seahawks invested in him with a real-life late first-round pick.
• Kenneth Walker III and Chris Olave for Ja’Marr Chase and James Cook: This season, Kenneth Walker and Chris Olave have been printing money for their owners. However, we need to be objective. Ja’Marr Chase is a light-years-better talent. I have James Cook and Kenneth Walker in the same tier, so as far as I’m concerned, this is a lateral move at RB. Cook will start cooking again soon!
• Kenneth Walker III and Jameis Winston for Justin Herbert and Garrett Wilson: This trade gives you far more value than Walker can provide right now. Winston is a single-use quarterback play, best used in streaming scenarios or out of pure desperation. Herbert was featured in this week’s buy-low article, as he’s been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of the last six seasons and is a safe franchise QB going through a cold streak. Wilson is still in his prime and should be, at worst, a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for the foreseeable future.

Dynasty Sell-High #3: Tyler Shough (NO)

If Ken Walker wasn’t spicy enough for you as a dynasty sell-high candidate, then maybe the new fan favorite Tyler Shough of the New Orleans Saints will be! Don’t get me wrong, Shough has been good, especially for fantasy, as he’s QB5 this season so far, averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game. The Kellen Moore offensive scheme couldn’t be better for this passing offense in fantasy, and that’s part of why I’m so excited to see what a healthy Jordyn Tyson can do. Still, there are several sound reasons why I have Tyler Shough as a sell-high candidate, so hear me out before you light the torches.

Right now, Tyler Shough is widely regarded as the QB11, just behind my other sell-high candidate, Bryce Young, who’s QB10. Keep Trade Cut is a public sentiment ranking system and has nothing to do with true player evaluation. It’s a beneficial site if you understand how to use it. Anyone who’s been doing well, regardless of circumstance, will naturally see their value get inflated.

Right now, we only have a four-game sample, so people are reacting violently, driving these wild valuations. You could say Bryce Young appears to have taken a step forward, and Tyler Shough has done well, while the market is overcorrecting. In my rankings, I believe a top-12 quarterback should not only deliver fantasy value but also be a proven franchise quarterback. Neither Young nor Shough has the sample size to prove to me that they are “the guy” for their franchise yet. In my opinion, both should be much closer to the QB15-20 range than to bona fide QB1 territory.

As I said, I think Shough is a good quarterback with potential to be “the guy”, but I do think that some of what’s going on is unsustainable. For example, he’s currently averaging 45 pass attempts per game. This not only leads the league in pass attempts per game, but it’s also well above the NFL average of around 33 pass attempts per game. Kellen Moore-schemed offenses have never averaged near 45 pass attempts per game in a season.

His 8.8 average depth of target is around league average, and many of his numbers are inflated by his Week 1 comeback performance against a terrible Detroit Lions defense. If his volume regresses, the data suggest his fantasy output will too, because his passing efficiency is mostly good, not elite.

Because so many people are treating Tyler Shough as the next breakout QB1 in dynasty, he’s able to fetch you a good return should you be looking to sell high on him. Here are some real trades that happened via the Dynasty Daddy trade database:

• Tyler Shough and Jake Ferguson for Drake Maye: People are still skeptical about whether Drake Maye is the quarterback we saw last week or the one we’ve seen for the first three weeks of the season. Even if Maye isn’t the dynasty QB1 overall, he’s proven he’s the franchise guy and has that upside. He’s also insulated with the real-life draft capital that the Patriots assigned him when they picked him. Ferguson isn’t someone who should really move the needle in any trade at this point in his career.
• Tyler Shough and Davante Adams for Justin Herbert and a 2027 first-round pick: Again, this is taking advantage of current market sentiment. Justin Herbert is objectively a good quarterback. He’s got a long track record to prove it. You’re also getting a first-round pick, so this is a no-brainer for me regardless of contention status. You can patch your QB position with another option until Herbert wakes up; you can use that first-round pick to pivot if you want; and Adams isn’t a league winner.
• Tyler Shough for Fernando Mendoza, a 2027 second-round pick, and a 2028 second-round pick: I wouldn’t fight anyone hard if they preferred Shough over Mendoza, as I have them in the same tier. This is an easy rebuilder trade because you stay in the tier while acquiring two second-round picks.
• Tyler Shough for Jaxson Dart and Eli Stowers: Again, like the Mendoza trade, we have quarterbacks in the same tier, but you’re getting a free roll on Eli Stowers, a tight end with a good receiving profile coming into the league. It also helps you shed points as a rebuilder while maintaining, or even gaining, roster value.

Dynasty Sell-High #4: DeVonta Smith (PHI)

DeVonta Smith was a sell-high candidate for me coming into the season, and he still is. While he’s dealing with an injury, you may still be able to sell high to a hopeful contender, especially once he’s back. The Eagles offense looks broken. Saquon Barkley is hurt, Jalen Hurts looks unlike himself, the offensive line is atrocious, and they just lost veteran and leader Lane Johnson to mid-season retirement. The vibes are just bad all around in Philly.

Still, DeVonta Smith is widely regarded as the WR16, and I just cannot get behind that. He’s done nothing to earn that valuation, and he’s approaching the apex of his prime. He’s always been who he is: a WR2 with upside week to week. This is still valuable for fantasy, but not what some had hoped for earlier this offseason. Many had him as a breakout WR1 this season now that A.J. Brown was gone, but that hasn’t happened.

Sean Mannion’s scheme is spreading the ball around more than people anticipated. He has a quality metric in YPRR (2.05) and an average depth of target of 13.3, but he isn’t getting the volume to be a consistent fantasy WR1. He’ll likely be a fine WR2 option in fantasy this year, despite all of the “bad vibes” happening in Philly. If people are still paying borderline WR1 prices, I’d consider moving him while you still can.

This week, DeVonta Smith has been traded for solid value, according to the Dynasty Daddy trade database. Here are some of the trades that happened in real leagues:

• DeVonta Smith for a 2027 first-round pick: depending on where this pick lands, it would determine “who wins” the trade. At worst, this is most likely a reroll and fair deal between a contender vs. a rebuilder.
• DeVonta Smith, Jameson Williams, and a 2027 second-round pick for Puka Nacua: This is a low price to pay for an “S-tier” wide receiver who’s still well within his prime. Puka is set to be a fantasy force for years to come, while Smith won’t give you the same upside, and Jameson Williams is a boom/bust WR2.
• DeVonta Smith and Stefon Diggs for Tetairoa McMillan: Tet is an absolute alpha stud wide receiver. He’s only in his second year, and Smith isn’t a Diggs-away from making this a fair tier drop for me.
• DeVonta Smith for KC Concepcion and a 2027 second-round pick: This is a fair-value contender-for-rebuilder trade. I’m high on Concepcion, as his advanced metrics and usage suggest an imminent breakout, but he still hasn’t produced fantasy numbers, so his value is depressed. The second-round pick is a nice insulation move for a rebuilder, as it gives you an extra shot to rebuild your roster.

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