Week 5 of the NFL saw several teams keep hold of their perfect start to the season, while others fell to a 0-5 record. The round of matchups included several games in London, England, including a thrilling 19-17 victory for the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the first tie of the season between the Commanders and the Giants.
Among the biggest surprises of the season so far have been the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs who have both kept their perfect records (although the Chiefs had a bye in Week 5), while the Los Angeles Chargers have fallen to a 0-5 score. How have these results changed the – admittedly still early – odds for the 2027 Super Bowl winners market, and what do the sportsbooks think of early MVP candidates?
A Word on NFL Betting and the Accuracy of Odds
To get a quantified number on almost any potential NFL outcome, sportsbooks are an obvious place to look. Their futures odds are a good snapshot of market opinion.
Bettors use comparative resources like Covers to look for detailed breakdowns of offers like a promo code from Stake and the terms behind it. This shows you how much attention there is on the US sports betting market and the available bonuses. That level of scrutiny means if sportsbooks misprice an NFL market then sharp bettors can take advantage. So for this reason – while odds should not be treated as gospel – sportsbooks are incentivized to be as accurate as possible.
San Francisco, Chiefs both Resurgent
The biggest odds swing since preseason and arguably one of the biggest stories of the season so far has been the 5-0 49ers. The San Francisco team has been on fire, beating the 2025 champions in Seattle in Week 5, to cap off an impressive start. Brock Purdy in particular is looking in fine form, and the team’s odds to take home the 2027 Super Bowl have shifted accordingly.
The 49ers were at +1900 in the preseason at some ‘books, or around 5% implied probability. Now at Week 5, they sit at an average of +800 or around 11% implied. Which is a massive swing in market opinion on their chances of being the title winner after just five games.
That also tells you how impressed the market has been with their performances. They have played quality opposition so far, and have shown both offensive and defensive prowess at times to get the job done. They’re looking to go 6-0 in the opening weeks for the first time since 2019, as the Commanders visit California in the final Week 6 matchup.
The Kansas City Chiefs have also shortened considerably on the moneyline, with their 4-0 record after missing Week 5 through their bye week. They started the season out at around +1500 (6.3% implied) average to be 2027 Super Bowl winners – but they’ve now shortened to +900 (10%) with as low as +750 (11.8%) at some sportsbooks.
In terms of individual performers, Brock Purdy has rocketed up the MVP rankings with the 49ers impressive season opening. He overtook Josh Allen as the favorite MVP candidate at sportsbooks after the 49ers Week 5 win over Seattle. He currently sits at an average of +260 or 27.8% implied chance, which is a big swing for this stage of the season.
Minnesota Vikings Surprising Everyone So Far
The Minnesota Vikings have also seen a massive odds swing towards them after their 5-0 season opening. They started out averaging +5000 (2% implied) at some sportsbooks before the season. They’re now around +2220 (4.3% implied) with some ‘books having them as short as +2000 (4.8% chance).
That is still not good odds, but is it a heck of a swing for a team that had basically counted out this season. They also capped off Week 5 with an impressive offensive performance to defeat the New Orleans Saints. Although previously undefeated the Vikings failed to score high in overall yardage, which changed in Week 5.
Will Reichard has been a significant standout, having scored a league high 15 field goals. Despite that, and earning All-Pro honors last year, his MVP odds have barely shifted – probably because a kicker hasn’t won the NFL MVP since Mark Moseley in 1982.
Houston, Chargers Top the Biggest Fall Offs
So those are the unexpected winners and market risers so far – but which teams have fallen out of favor with sportsbooks and bettors?
The Houston Texans were considered a dark horse by a few during preseason, but their 1-4 opening record has seen their Super Bowl winners odds in freefall. Some sportsbooks had them as narrow as +1800 (or around 5.3% implied) before a ball was played, but they’re now averaging +4500 or 2.2% chance.
The Week 5 demolition of the Titans may have calmed some nerves in Houston, but it hasn’t done much for their championship chances in the eyes of bettors.
The Los Angeles Chargers were also discussed as a potential top contender in the preseason, but have since fallen to a 0-5 record. No redemption for them in Week 5, where they lost 23-17 to the Denver Broncos.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert opened as a serious prospect for MVP at some sportsbooks, with odds as short as +1000. He now averages around a +20000 longshot or around 0.4% implied chance. Showing just how dramatically market opinion can fall off from preseason hype.
