Fantasy Football Week 9 Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) Opportunity Chart: Carries, Targets, Air Yards

Let's dive into the data.

Welcome to Week 9 Expected Fantasy Points (xFP), where we dig deep into the data to tell you who is overperforming, underperforming, and performing at the correct level based on luck, talent, and opportunity.

WHAT ARE EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS (xFP)?

XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual (PPR) fantasy points scored.

XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. Basically, the difference between expected and actual fantasy points comes from two sources: luck and talent + situation. For a more in-depth breakdown of Jackson Barrett’s xFP Chart, click here.

The main purpose of xFP is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We also want to buy players who see plenty of volume but are underperforming due to ‘bad luck.’

Below, you can find xFP for each player, along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 9. Also, scroll below the chart to see which players we are targeting in trades.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find players we would ‘buy-low’ based on xFP.

WEEK 9 EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS

PlayerPOSGActualExpectedDifferenceRushesTargetsAir Yards
A.KAMARA, NORB620.824-3.215.88.2-1
J.CHASE, CINWR819.621.9-2.30.411.690
T.HILL, MIAWR924.921.13.80.210.8114.7
J.JEFFERSON, MINWR521.820.21.6010.6113.2
S.DIGGS, BUFWR921.720.11.6010.8116.3
A.EKELER, LACRB517.320-2.714.65.6-4.4
S.BARKLEY, NYGRB616.520-3.5214.8-0.2
J.JACOBS, LVRB914.819.8-517.74.87
A.ST. BROWN, DETWR72019.80.20.111.180.3
K.ALLEN, LACWR820.619.51.10.310.4101
C.MCCAFFREY, SFRB825.119.55.617.14.63.4
A.BROWN, PHIWR922.619.33.3010.2132.9
P.NACUA, LAWR917.719.1-1.40.210.793
G.WILSON, NYJWR813.918.9-50.110.1112.3
D.ADAMS, LVWR91418.1-4.109.4104.9
C.OLAVE, NOWR913.117.9-4.809.4123.8
A.THIELEN, CARWR818.717.61.10.19.567.1
T.POLLARD, DALRB813.417.5-4.1154.41.6
K.WILLIAMS, LARB618.517.5116.242.7
M.PITTMAN, INDWR915.317.4-2.109.676.2
T.ETIENNE, JAXRB820.517.43.118.94.4-5.3
C.LAMB, DALWR819.817.22.60.5993.3
J.MIXON, CINRB813.416.8-3.415.83.8-8.4
D.JOHNSON, PITWR414.816.7-1.908.8100
C.KUPP, LAWR513.516.6-3.10999.4
D.MONTGOMERY, DETRB51716.60.418.82-1.2
T.KELCE, KCTE817.616.51.10958.4
M.BROWN, ARIWR912.516.4-3.90.18.693.1
T.HOCKENSON, MINTE914.516.4-1.908.959.4
M.WILLIAMS, LACWR316.716.20.50.38.7102.3
J.GIBBS, DETRB616.116.2-0.09999999999999812.75.52.5
K.WALKER, SEARB814.416.1-1.715.82.5-1.4
R.WHITE, TBRB814.316-1.7144.3-2.4
A.MATTISON, MINRB910.915.9-513.63.84.7
D.SWIFT, PHIRB914.415.8-1.414.93.92.4
D.HOPKINS, TENWR813.715.2-1.508112.9
J.MEYERS, LVWR815.215.10.10.37.879.4
A.COOPER, CLEWR813.615-1.407.9123.5
C.GODWIN, TBWR81214.9-2.90.17.867
M.EVANS, TBWR815.814.51.307.5101.8
J.WADDLE, MIAWR813.914.4-0.50.37.472.5
Z.MOSS, INDRB81614.31.716.52.50.1
D.HENRY, TENRB815.314.21.117.12.6-8.3
T.MCLAURIN, WASWR913.514.2-0.707.884.2
R.STEVENSON, NERB91214.1-2.111.84.43.6
B.AIYUK, SFWR715.6141.607.4110.3
C.RIDLEY, JAXWR811.414-2.60.57.392.1
D.METCALF, SEAWR712.213.9-1.707.392.6
T.HIGGINS, CINWR710.313.8-3.507.382
I.PACHECO, KCRB912.913.8-0.913.83.1-7.2
B.ROBINSON, ATLRB912.613.7-1.111.44.61.6
A.JONES, GBRB512.913.6-0.79.84.4-5.2
G.PICKENS, PITWR812.713.6-0.90.17.392.1
T.LOCKETT, SEAWR812.313.5-1.207.175.5
D.LONDON, ATLWR811.713.5-1.807.169.4
M.ANDREWS, BALTE815.613.32.30.16.950.4
C.KIRK, JAXWR813.913.30.60.17.562.3
R.MOSTERT, MIARB91913.35.712.12.7-0.1
D.PIERCE, HOURB7813.3-5.315.61.70.7
R.DOUBS, GBWR811.413.2-1.806.874.5
S.LAPORTA, DETTE813.813.20.607.452.3
J.FORD, CLERB812.613.1-0.513.43.55.5
R.WOODS, HOUWR68.513.1-4.607.266.8
K.BOURNE, NEWR812.513-0.50.16.971.8
D.MOORE, CHIWR916.5133.506.977.3
Z.FLOWERS, BALWR91113-20.76.953.9
J.TAYLOR, INDRB512.212.9-0.711.23.40.2
E.ENGRAM, JAXTE811.612.9-1.307.630.6
M.THOMAS, NOWR99.812.8-306.971.1
M.SANDERS, CARRB77.612.6-59.94.10.9
N.COLLINS, HOUWR815.412.52.906.678.8
J.ADDISON, MINWR915.212.52.70.16.673.2
J.WILLIAMS, DENRB79.812.3-2.512.93.1-4.9
B.HALL, NYJRB813.812.31.511.83.9-1.9
D.SMITH, PHIWR913.312.21.106.680.7
Z.JONES, JAXWR39.312-2.70665
J.DOTSON, WASWR99.811.9-2.106.360.1
E.MOORE, CLEWR86.911.8-4.916.352.1
N.HARRIS, PITRB89.411.7-2.312.52.62.9
K.HERBERT, CHIRB510.311.7-1.410.23.6-1.4
J.COOK, BUFRB911.711.70122.95.4
D.SCHULTZ, HOUTE811.311.7-0.406.340.1
J.DOWNS, INDWR911.311.7-0.406.348.2
T.ATWELL, LAWR910.311.6-1.30.4666.9
D.WALLER, NYGTE810.111.5-1.406.453.1
D.FOREMAN, CHIRB511.611.40.2132.2-1
J.CONNER, ARIRB511.911.30.613.62-4.4
D.ACHANE, MIARB425.411.314.19.52.8-6.8
D.SAMUEL, SFWR61211.20.835.339
Z.ERTZ, ARITE77.411.2-3.806.147.4
B.ROBINSON, WASRB912.711.21.512.62-3.9
J.JEUDY, DENWR79.511-1.505.775
K.PITTS, ATLTE98.511-2.50.15.965.8
N.CHUBB, CLERB211.6110.61420.5
T.BOYD, CINWR89.811-1.20.16.139.9
T.ALLGEIER, ATLRB98.411-2.612.91.80.2
C.HUBBARD, CARRB88.410.9-2.510.62.9-3.6
C.SUTTON, DENWR812.910.9205.856.6
L.THOMAS, WASTE81010.9-0.90.15.835.9
J.DOBBINS, BALRB111.710.80.9833
A.DILLON, GBRB87.210.7-3.511.81.8-1.5
J.PALMER, LACWR79.210.7-1.505.669.9
J.WARREN, PITRB810.310.6-0.374.4-5.6
J.FERGUSON, DALTE810.410.6-0.205.427.9
D.NJOKU, CLETE89.210.5-1.305.619.4
G.DAVIS, BUFWR911.410.50.90.15.471.6
C.SAMUEL, WASWR81110.50.50.55.435.1
C.KMET, CHITE912.110.41.70.25.632.2
J.REED, GBWR89.810.4-0.60.3564.8
K.OSBORN, MINWR99.110.3-1.205.445.1
D.KINCAID, BUFTE89.710.1-0.405.622.1
D.GOEDERT, PHITE910.1100.105.831
J.MINGO, CARWR75.79.8-4.105.458
G.KITTLE, SFTE811.89.72.10.15.447.9
G.EDWARDS, BALRB912.19.72.412.20.80.8
N.BROWN, HOUWR411.79.52.20.3538.5
D.CHARK, CARWR78.39.4-1.104.967.3
J.SMITH-NJIGBA, SEAWR88.59.3-0.805.427.3
K.HUNT, CLERB610.29.21101.5-1
R.SHAHEED, NOWR910.69.21.40.74.677.7
J.SMITH, ATLTE99.69.20.40.14.729.6
C.WATSON, GBWR55.79.1-3.40.24.481.2
O.BECKHAM, BALWR76.49-2.604.748.7
D.DOUGLAS, NEWR86.68.9-2.30.54.640
R.RICE, KCWR910.48.71.70.14.623.3
E.ELLIOTT, NERB96.88.7-1.98.12.4-2.3
C.OTTON, TBTE88.88.60.204.830.3
T.SPEARS, TENRB87.88.6-0.84.63.83.3
M.GALLUP, DALWR85.88.5-2.704.850.8
T.HIGBEE, LATE96.18.4-2.304.834.7
D.SLAYTON, NYGWR96.18.3-2.204.656.7
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, NEWR75.98.3-2.404.724.6
H.HENRY, NETE98.18.2-0.104.642.1
W.ROBINSON, NYGWR77.98.2-0.30.64.718
B.COOKS, DALWR76.88.2-1.40.44.149.6
K.GAINWELL, PHIRB86.58.1-1.66.82.35.8
J.HILL, BALRB87.98-0.17.32-1.6
T.MCBRIDE, ARITE978-104.428.7
A.LAZARD, NYJWR86.58-1.504.453.6
C.OKONKWO, TENTE85.27.9-2.70.14.531
K.BOUTTE, NEWR107.9-7.90484
T.CONKLIN, NYJTE86.97.8-0.904.431.9
J.REYNOLDS, DETWR89.77.81.903.948
K.GRANSON, INDTE75.67.7-2.10428.9
L.MUSGRAVE, GBTE87.27.6-0.404.429.8
D.KNOX, BUFTE74.77.4-2.703.925.9
R.MOORE, ARIWR967.3-1.32.33.77.3
T.MARSHALL, CARWR74.27.3-3.104.129.9
T.BURKS, TENWR54.37.3-30.43.675.4
S.PERINE, DENRB86.47.2-0.83.43.3-0.4
R.JOHNSON, CHIRB76.27.1-0.94.62.4-1.9
D.MOONEY, CHIWR96.47-0.60.13.838.7
J.JOHNSON, NOTE55.77-1.303.822.2
J.KELLEY, LACRB86.17-0.99.30.82.6
L.MURRAY, BUFRB95.17-1.94.71.30.9
A.GIBSON, WASRB96.96.902.93.20.8
G.EVERETT, LACTE77.26.90.30.33.610.7
A.ROBINSON, PITWR84.36.8-2.503.827.9
T.PALMER, TBWR85.56.8-1.303.542.6
D.SINGLETARY, HOURB84.86.7-1.97.81.4-0.4
A.PIERCE, INDWR94.66.6-203.650.2
S.AHMED, MIARB74.46.5-2.12.72.91.9
E.DEMERCADO, ARIRB85.56.5-16.122.6
D.PARKER, NEWR74.46.4-203.639.7
H.HURST, CARTE84.96.4-1.503.526
P.FREIERMUTH, PITTE46.36.3003.321.3
S.MOORE, KCWR94.96.3-1.40.33.332.6
T.HUDSON, CINTE35.86.3-0.503.723
J.WILLIAMS, NORB53.96.2-2.38.21.2-1.2
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENWR87.36.11.203.335.5
C.AUSTIN, PITWR84.86.1-1.30.93.139.3
R.BATEMAN, BALWR84.66-1.40.13.142.6
K.TONEY, KCWR94.26-1.80.73.18.4
P.TAYLOR, GBRB42.76-3.32.82.51.3
C.AKERS, MINRB75.46-0.65.41.7-1.9
D.PARHAM, LACTE85.95.9002.615.8
M.HOLLINS, ATLWR94.65.9-1.303.240.7
I.SMITH, CINTE64.25.9-1.703.212.5
M.GORDON, BALRB26.55.80.76.51.59
R.CRACRAFT, MIAWR36.95.71.202.725
J.MCLAUGHLIN, DENRB87.95.72.24.81.8-6.8
Q.JOHNSTON, LACWR83.45.7-2.30.1337.9
M.GESICKI, NETE94.65.6-102.927.1
Z.CHARBONNET, SEARB74.55.5-14.61.7-3
K.RAYMOND, DETWR86.55.41.10.52.926.8
J.JENNINGS, SFWR74.35.4-1.10333
D.WICKS, GBWR84.75.3-0.60.12.931.4
J.MCKINNON, KCRB95.85.20.61.32.60.9
M.BREIDA, NYGRB94.15.2-1.14.91.70.3
M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KCWR94.85.1-0.302.744
D.COOK, NYJRB83.15-1.95.41.4-2.8
P.CAMPBELL, NYGWR93.14.9-1.802.810.4
B.BERRIOS, MIAWR95.24.90.30.12.822.2
N.GRAY, KCTE95.14.80.30.12.721
N.AGHOLOR, BALWR95.84.8102.631.8
D.SMYTHE, MIATE93.84.7-0.902.414.9
B.POWELL, MINWR94.14.7-0.60.42.318.3
D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLEWR72.54.6-2.102.630
R.DOWDLE, DALRB844.5-0.54.41-2
A.TRAUTMAN, DENTE834.5-1.502.314.8
M.CARTER, NYJRB83.24.3-1.112.42.4
C.WILSON, MIAWR75.14.30.802.128.6
J.HYATT, NYGWR93.64.3-0.702.153.8
D.THOMPKINS, TBWR83.44.3-0.90.42.313.5
K.MILLER, NORB74.14.3-0.241.4-1.4
C.REYNOLDS, DETRB844.2-0.25.10.6-1.5
E.MITCHELL, SFRB51.64.1-2.54.41-4.4
C.PARKINSON, SEATE83.24-0.802.116.4
D.HARTY, BUFWR93.43.9-0.50.31.920.3
M.MAYER, LVTE93.43.9-0.502.117.4
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KCRB83.33.8-0.54.10.9-2.8
I.HODGINS, NYGWR93.13.8-0.702.115.3
B.JOHNSON, DENWR75.53.81.701.919.6
A.MCFARLAND, PITRB13.13.8-0.7024
K.SHAKIR, BUFWR95.23.81.402.117.9
H.RENFROW, LVWR92.73.7-102.116
N.FANT, SEATE84.63.70.902.116.3
D.HARRIS, BUFRB63.23.7-0.53.80.30
R.COBB, NYJWR61.23.7-2.50214
T.SCOTT, CHIWR91.93.7-1.80.61.919.1
M.MIMS, DENWR853.71.30.51.833.4
K.VAUGHN, TBRB61.13.7-2.640.8-0.3
J.TOLBERT, DALWR83.53.5001.923.8
P.STRONG, CLERB83.33.5-0.24.30.4-1.3
R.FREEMAN, LARB63.43.5-0.15.50.20.2
D.BROWN, WASWR92.23.4-1.20.11.728.7
J.AGNEW, JAXWR72.33.4-1.10.61.715.1
T.IRWIN, CINWR733.4-0.401.916.4
G.DULCICH, DENTE22.83.4-0.60211.5
K.HODGE, ATLWR93.43.30.10.11.727
K.INGRAM, ARIRB723.3-1.34.70.6-0.7
D.VAUGHN, DALRB61.83.3-1.53.30.8-0.5
S.TOURE, GBWR71.93.3-1.401.635
J.BOBO, SEAWR85.23.31.90.11.613.3
F.MOREAU, NOTE74.13.20.901.79.4
C.TURNER, WASTE823.1-1.101.510.8
M.GOODWIN, CLEWR80.93.1-2.20.51.437.3
T.BIGSBY, JAXRB81.93.1-1.22.90.50.4
M.JONES, DETWR61.13-1.901.713.3
E.EZUKANMA, MIAWR21.13-1.92.50.54
Q.WATKINS, PHIWR322.9-0.901.76.7
J.BATES, WASTE92.22.9-0.701.611.4
K.TURPIN, DALWR84.82.91.90.91.19.5
L.SHENAULT, CARWR62.82.9-0.121.2-4.2
J.CROWDER, WASWR93.72.90.801.712.4
A.ABDULLAH, LVRB922.8-0.80.41.63.3
C.UZOMAH, NYJTE82.32.8-0.501.47.8
J.OLIVER, MINTE92.62.8-0.201.63
C.EDMONDS, TBRB41.62.8-1.22.51-1.5
C.MOORE, TENWR82.92.80.101.430.9
T.TUCKER, LVWR83.12.80.30.61.324.5
R.BLACKSHEAR, CARRB42.52.8-0.32.310
A.HOOPER, LVTE92.92.70.201.65.9
W.MALLORY, INDTE42.12.7-0.601.519.3
K.DRAKE, BALRB21.62.6-10.51.5-2
T.TREMBLE, CARTE83.22.50.701.14.1
O.ZACCHEAUS, PHIWR92.32.5-0.201.316.2
L.SCHOONMAKER, DALTE81.32.4-1.1015.1
H.BRYANT, CLETE81.32.3-10.414
R.MCCLOUD, SFWR82.42.30.10.31.35.3
P.HENDERSHOT, DALTE30.42.3-1.90.30.76
Z.PASCAL, ARIWR80.72.3-1.601.311
I.SPILLER, LACRB51.52.3-0.82.40.6-0.2
B.PRINGLE, WASWR91.92.3-0.401.220.8
G.BRIGHTWELL, NYGRB71.72.2-0.51.31-0.9
M.HEATH, GBWR402.2-2.201.315.3
E.HULL, INDRB11.72.2-0.5113
D.DAVIS, LACWR82.42.20.20.91.1-2.8
R.RIVERS, LARB61.92.2-0.32.20.7-1.8
Z.WHITE, LVRB91.32.1-0.81.80.71.4
J.AKINS, CLETE81.12.1-101.33.6
D.DUVERNAY, BALWR90.82-1.20.319
P.DORSETT, DENWR102-20121
J.METCHIE, HOUWR72.220.201.18.7
R.PENNY, PHIRB21.62-0.42.50.5-0.5
T.MONTGOMERY, NEWR90.81.9-1.10.219.1
I.MCKENZIE, INDWR91.21.9-0.70.21.11.8
T.SHERFIELD, BUFWR91.41.9-0.501.17.4
I.LIKELY, BALTE91.81.80015.7
J.MASON, SFRB83.31.81.52.60.31.3
T.WILLIAMS, CINRB81.11.8-0.71.30.8-2.4
S.TUCKER, TBRB60.91.8-0.92.50.3-0.5
W.DISSLY, SEATE71.71.70012.9
J.DEGUARA, GBTE81.81.70.1013.3
B.JORDAN, HOUTE62.71.7100.84.3
D.BELL, CLEWR711.7-0.7014.7
R.JARRETT, TBWR80.61.7-1.10.10.912
R.TONYAN, CHITE91.41.7-0.3014.9
M.ALIE-COX, INDTE921.60.400.98.2
D.SAMPLE, CINTE821.60.401-1.8
J.ROSS, KCWR70.91.6-0.700.97.1
M.PRUITT, ATLTE90.91.6-0.700.81.6
J.WHYLE, TENTE72.11.60.500.76.9
A.IOSIVAS, CINWR82.31.60.700.64.8
T.JACKSON, MINWR511.6-0.600.83.2
I.THOMAS, CARTE51.11.5-0.400.84.4
B.SCOTT, PHIRB71.41.5-0.11.10.4-0.1
B.SKOWRONEK, LAWR91.51.500.20.75.2
D.BELLINGER, NYGTE91.51.5000.93.6
B.WRIGHT, DETTE81.41.5-0.100.92.4
T.JONES, JAXWR811.5-0.500.94.9
T.CHANDLER, MINRB91.51.500.90.7-1.2
Z.KNIGHT, DETRB21.61.50.11.50.5-2.5
M.BOONE, HOURB71.31.4-0.10.60.7-0.7
C.BROOKS, MIARB61.61.40.22.500
B.STRANGE, JAXTE81.71.40.300.85.8
P.BROWN, NETE93.31.41.900.86.9
C.TILLMAN, CLEWR50.61.4-0.800.87.6
S.MILLER, ATLWR92.21.40.800.86.8
D.DALLAS, SEARB80.61.3-0.70.60.60.3
S.SHEPARD, NYGWR80.61.3-0.700.84.1
L.HUMPHREY, DENWR81.61.30.300.65
D.CARTER, LVWR90.81.3-0.50.20.70.7
E.DOTSON, LACRB411.3-0.310.5-0.3
N.ADKINS, DENTE611.3-0.300.8-0.8
T.SERMON, INDRB70.51.3-0.81.10.40.1
J.RUCKERT, NYJTE81.21.3-0.100.85.1
D.JOHNSON, JAXRB811.2-0.21.10.40.5
C.BROWN, CINRB50.91.2-0.30.40.6-1.6
E.GRAY, NYGRB70.51.2-0.71.90.1-1
B.BELL, KCTE911.1-0.100.61.9
C.RODRIGUEZ, WASRB70.91.1-0.2200
K.KIRKWOOD, NOWR70.21.1-0.900.65.4
H.LUEPKE, DALRB81.31.10.20.40.4-0.4
R.CHOSEN, MIAWR43.51.12.400.516
C.JONES, CINWR30.51.1-0.600.72
X.GIPSON, NYJWR81.31.10.20.50.54
L.FARRELL, JAXTE81.110.100.61.1
S.SMARTT, LACTE80.60.9-0.300.55
J.HILL, MIATE70.20.9-0.700.41.6
R.BELL, SFWR81.50.90.600.54
M.BOYKIN, PITWR80.40.8-0.400.41.6
M.WILCOX, CINTE80.60.8-0.200.51.3
B.HOPKINS, LATE90.70.8-0.100.41.4
X.HUTCHINSON, HOUWR80.60.8-0.20.40.32.5
D.WELLS, TBTE40.30.8-0.500.50
G.SWAIM, ARITE90.70.8-0.100.41.2
D.WASHINGTON, PITTE80.50.8-0.300.50.9
K.KIEFT, TBTE800.7-0.700.46.4
T.QUITORIANO, HOUTE70.80.70.100.42.1
J.FUNK, INDRB40.80.70.10.50.30
C.MANHERTZ, DENTE80.30.7-0.400.41.1
J.MUNDT, MINTE90.70.60.100.3-0.3
J.STOLL, PHITE90.30.6-0.300.31.7
J.GRAHAM, NOTE71.10.60.500.32
R.DWELLEY, SFTE80.30.5-0.200.32.1
G.DORTCH, ARIWR80.20.5-0.300.34.4
L.CAGER, NYGTE60.60.50.100.30.3
A.GREEN, DETWR70.20.5-0.300.31.6
A.ARMAH, WASRB30.30.5-0.200.3-2
C.EVANS, CINRB60.40.400.30.2-0.2
D.OGUNBOWALE, HOURB30.10.4-0.30.700
T.WESCO, TENTE80.40.4000.31.6
M.LEWIS, CHITE90.50.40.100.20.2
T.KRAFT, GBTE80.30.4-0.100.3-0.1
B.SIMS, GBTE80.40.4000.30
G.RICCI, CARTE50.20.3-0.100.2-0.2
C.KOLAR, BALTE700.3-0.300.11.7
C.THOMPSON, SEAWR60.30.3000.21
L.BOWDEN, NOWR700.3-0.300.11.3
Q.MORRIS, BUFTE71.20.30.900.12.1
J.WINFREE, INDWR600.3-0.300.24.3
J.HORSTED, LVTE90.20.2000.10.2
T.HOMER, CHIRB800.2-0.200.1-0.6
D.ROBINSON, LAWR80.30.20.100.10.8

UNLUCKY RUNNING BACKS

These running backs cannot find the end zone, but they’ve been given the opportunity.

Tony Pollard was a locked-in first-round pick with overall RB1 upside entering the season. However, he has not reached the end zone since Week 1, when he found pay dirt twice against the Giants. Aided by early season receptions, he’s averaged 13.4 PPR points per game compared to his 17.5 xFP (-4.1). The targets and carries have dipped since the team’s Week 7 bye week, and now he’s averaging just 12 carries and three targets per game. Maybe the team is reducing his role for the stretch run and playoffs, but he’s still considered a ‘buy-low’ because of the offense he’s in and the workload he receives. The time is now to acquire him, with the Giants and Panthers coming up.

The buy-low opportunity might be shut on Josh Jacobs after the team axed Josh McDaniels. Interim head coach Anthony Pierce wanted to feed Jacobs in his first game on the sideline, and he did just that by giving him a season-high 26 carries in Week 9 that led to 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The zero targets from rookie Aidan O’Connell were concerning, but Pierce will force-feed Jacobs for the rest of the season. Jacobs could be in the overall RB1 convo from Week 9 and on if the targets come. Let’s hope the Jacobs owner in your league doesn’t follow The Coachspeak Index.

Okay, okay. We all know Alex Mattison sucks. But, with Cam Akers no longer around to be a thorn in his side, Mattison will resume his heavy workload ahead of Ty Chandler. He’s averaged a pathetic 10.9 PPR ppg on 15.9 xFP and has yet to find the end zone on the ground. But with dual-threat Josh Dobbs now running the offense and Justin Jefferson set to return very soon, Mattison will have ample opportunity to find the end zone for the first time on the ground this season. I’m not banging the table to acquire him, but he would be a fine rest-of-season Flex option.

AIR YARDS= FUTURE PRODUCTION

Most air yards with under 10 targets per game.

Chris Olave is the unrealized air yards king thus far, averaging 123.8 air yards per game through nine weeks. He’s averaging 9.4 targets and 17.9 xFP per game. However, he’s only averaging 13.1 PPR points per game. Olave is consistently on the ‘buy-low’ list, and it’s easy to see why. I still believe in Olave, and he’s a nice buy-low target before it’s too late. Let’s hope Derek Carr and the Saints make life easier for the second-year stud.

Amari Cooper is in the same breath as Olave, where he’s seeing 123.5 air yards per game with just a shade under eight targets per game. The Deshaun Watson injury and overall inconsistency likely made these air yards unrealized because he’s only averaging 13.6 PPR points per game. Now, with Watson back under center and looking healthy (as of now), Cooper could be in for a big second half at a cheaper price tag than Olave.

Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn

Related Posts