Is volume truly king in fantasy football? Yes and no.
In the running back world, opportunity is king. What’s the difference? In fantasy football, an opportunity is defined as either a rush attempt or a target, specifically for the running back position.
I put a little spin on the traditional approach of calculating the expected fantasy points (xFP) of running backs based on how their opportunities are utilized.
I looked at both targets and rush attempts for all running backs from 2020–2023 and filtered out backs that saw less than 100 opportunities on the season to account for outliers. From there, I calculated the average fantasy points scored per rush attempt and per target in and out of the red zone.
According to my calculations, each opportunity was worth the following:
- Non-red zone rush attempts = 0.485 fantasy points per opportunity (FPPO)
- Red zone rush attempts = 1.355 FPPO
- Non-red zone targets = 1.380 FPPO
- Red zone targets = 2.185 FPPO
By taking each value and applying it as a weight or multiplier to each person’s opportunities per game, the sum of each variable creates their xFP value.
So which running backs stand out above the pack, and which backs have their fantasy managers begging for more? Let’s find out!
To view my Adjusted xFP data click here
MOST VALUABLE BACKFIELDS
Surprise, surprise. Who would you choose if you had to guess who was the league leader in xFP per game?
After last week’s reminder that he was still the OG of fantasy football RBs, Christian McCaffrey is the top dog in both FPPG and xFP.
Following CMC is Tony Pollard who, despite being underutilized in Week 4 because of the Dallas Cowboys defense, is still seeing 67.8% of snaps this season. His role is as juicy as it gets, but he just has had trouble with those blow-up games. In fact, behind CMC, Pollard has seen the most total opportunities at the RB position, and NOBODY has had more red zone opportunities (31) than Pollard.
Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson are both tied for the third-most targets at the RB position (22), trailing Josh Jacobs (25) and Miles Sanders (23).
After returning from his injury, David Montgomery got FED! He’s up to 72 total opportunities and 19 red zone opportunities across three games. In other words, his role has clearly been carved out and is a safe trade target, as Jahmyr Gibbs‘ 12.2 xFP role is unlikely to threaten his lucrative red zone work this season.
LEAST VALUABLE BACKFIELDS
This section highlights the running backs who are still either trying to carve out a role in the offense or are being overshadowed.
Despite all of the offseason hype, Travis Etienne has an almost complete monopoly on the backfield work and Tank Bigsby is working with the scraps. Etienne has seen 85 total opportunities on the year vs. 14 for Bigsby.
The Jaguars’ offense belongs in a brown bag lit on fire and burning on someone’s front porch. Neither Etienne (5) nor Bigsby (3) are seeing a lucrative red zone role. At some point, managers might have to cut bait on Bigsby if roster space grows scarce.
Antonio Gibson has been relegated to a measly 5.75 opportunities per game due to his chronic fumbling issues. However, that doesn’t mean Brian Robinson Jr. has that backfield on lockdown. Despite seeing his snap-share go up in Week 4 from weeks 1-3, his usage and involvement took a pretty steep nosedive.
With Javonte Williams likely out for a few weeks, Samaje Perine’s usage might be worth monitoring as a Week 6 streamer. But Jaleel McLaughlin is likely the back to roster. In Week 4, he caught three passes for a touchdown and eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage, despite only playing 33% of snaps.
REGRESSION CANDIDATES: BUY OR SELL?
What’s truly surprising is how many starting backs are underperforming vs. expectation… that means Joe Mixon, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, and Pollard.
Sorry Skol Nation… but Mattison stinks. He ranks seventh among qualified RBs in targets and is tied for 13th in total opportunities at the position. Despite being seventh in xFP, he is currently 22nd in PPR PPG. With Cam Akers starting to mix in more as the season goes, expect Mattison’s production and opportunities to drop.
Mixon is clearly on the downslope of his career and has historically been a volume-dependent RB (never eclipsed 4.1 YPC since 2019). Still, it’s clearly not all his fault. Joe Burrow has been dealing with a nagging calf injury and has flat-out stunk. The offense has clearly been held back by poor playcalling and poor quarterback play. If this improves, Mixon could experience strong positive regression. This is where context matters.
As for Sanders, he’s on a bad team with horrible protection and is struggling to find the end zone. However, his opportunity is juicy. Sanders leads the league in RB targets but is not as explosive as he once was and is simultaneously being propped up by his volume. He’s a touchdown-dependent RB and not an alluring trade target.
BUY OF THE WEEK
Pollard might be one of the most obvious buys in fantasy football right now. Go pay for Pollard now! Yes, I know. He has scored almost 5 fantasy points below expectation so far. But, as I said above, nobody has had more red zone opportunities than Pollard.
His opportunity market share is the same as the likes of Saquon Barkley and Mixon, and Pollard’s projected fantasy points (234.0) for the rest of the season ranks second among RBs, according to RotoViz.
Pollard’s weekly fantasy points scored has decreased every week (22.2->19.9->15.1->9.0). With at least 17 opportunities every week other than Week 4, he’s almost a lock to regress closer to his expected value.
After a disappointing last two weeks, Pollard managers might be looking to sell him for around 75 cents on the dollar.
