Tank Dell, the Texans’ rookie speedster, will make his return for a Week 8 date with the Carolina Panthers. Should he also be back in your Fantasy Football lineups?
After back-to-back 20+ FP performances, Dell posted a Week 4 dud, followed by a Week 5 injury. Mix in the Texans’ Week 7 Bye, and it’s been a while since Dell came through for his fantasy owners.
In fact, he’s (somehow?!) available in over 50% of Yahoo Leagues right now! This is BLASPHEMOUS.
While your hesitation is understandable, Dell should absolutely be rolled back out in Week 8 with confidence. At minimum, stop what you’re doing and make sure you pick Dell up if he’s available.
Let’s dive into why:
Who is Tank Dell?
Via PlayerProfiler, Dell’s athletic profile is…underwhelming.
Sure, his 4.49 forty ranked in the 70th percentile. Yet, when adjusted for his minuscule size (5’8″, 165 lbs), Dell ranks in just the 6th percentile for his speed.
As Scott Barrett illustrates, WRs this small rarely hit: “Since 2000, there’s never been an NFL WR shorter or lighter to average 11.0 FPG in a single season.”
Thus, a bet on Dell is a bet on an outlier… and I think he’s just that.
Dell’s college production profile is absolutely elite. Over his final two college seasons, Dell lead all WRs in receptions (199) and yards (2,727), while also ranking 2nd in touchdowns (29).
In his 3 seasons, Dell score 26 Red Zone TDs. Comparatively, the 6’3″, 208 lbs Quentin Johnston scored 3 Red Zone TDs.
So much for those size concerns.
Perhaps most importantly, he has the unequivocal backing of his QB, CJ Stroud.
After the duo connected at the 2023 NFL Combine, Stroud begged the Texans to draft Dell. The team traded up with the Rams to do just that.
“He talked to me after the Combine,” Dell said. “‘I like how you run routes. I like how you play football.’ He said he had been watching me and stuff like that. I told him vice versa and I appreciated him. After he got drafted, I sent him congrats and I told him, ‘Tell them come get me.’”
This pre-established rapport helped Dell become a routine star of Texans Training Camp. His head coach DeMeco Ryans, raved Dell “was always open.”
Indeed, this has carried over in 2023:
Tank Dell’s 2023 Production and Usage so far:
After just a part-time role in Week 1, Dell exploded. The speedster posted 20 and 26 FPs in back-to-back weeks while leading Texans WRs with 23% and 25% target shares.
Even crazier? He narrowly missed a TD in each of those weeks, getting tackled at the one-yard line while also having another score called back by holding. Yes, Dell could’ve hit 30 FPs.
Unfortunately, Dell took a clear backseat to Nico Collins in Week 4. The bigger-bodied Collins went off for 36 FPs, leaving just scraps (4 points) for Dell.
Ultimately, Dell was pacing for a major bounceback in Week 5. In about 1 quarter of action, Dell had 8 PPR FPs and was cooking all over the field.
Unfortunately, he suffered a concussion, which kept Dell off the field in Week 6 heading into the Texans’ Week 7 Bye.
Thus, it’s been three weeks since Dell did anything meaningful. Fantasy owners’ hesitancy is understandable.
Still, I think benching him would be a mistake considering:
Tank Dell’s Week 8 Fantasy Outlook: Start Dell with Confidence
Indeed, the Carolina Panthers are dreadful against the run. They surender the most TDs, second-most yards, and second-most FPs to RBs. This is why Devin Singletary is a PRIME stash!
Still, don’t let this distract from the Texan’s also-positive passing game matchup.
CJ Stroud, who currently ranks 6th all-time and is among the all-time leaders in rookie yardage through their early career, absolutely thrives when he has a clean pocket.
As emphasized by Jacob Gibbs, the Panthers rank dead last in both pressure rate and press coverage. Both Collins and Dell blast off when Stroud isn’t pressured:
Additionally, without press coverage, Dell averages 23% target share (compared to 19% for Collins), while his YPRR leaps to 3.01 (compared to 2.49 for Collins).
Thus, facing the league’s worst pass-rush (that may be without their only competent rusher in Brian Burns), and behind his healthiest o-line, Stroud should carve up the Panthers.
Meanwhile, Dell looks to be in the best spot of all the WRs. This is especially true with Robert Woods, who has often led the Texans’ WRs in route share, expected to miss Week 8.
Ultimately, Dell ranks as my WR34 (+4 ECR), with the upside to absolutely smash that. Play him this week, and most weeks moving forward.
Tank Dell Week 8 Projection: 7 rec (9 tgts), 87 yds, 1 TD
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