The legend of Michael Wilson is a tale of two halves. Two halves of the first quarter of the year paint a drastically different picture for Wilson’s fantasy viability.
Okay, yeah, Wilson isn’t a legend. That was just me having some fun. But, there are many things about Wilson’s game to like… especially for fantasy. Or, is there?
Remember what is king in fantasy football? Volume. Yes, but opportunity-based volume is the real game-changer when extrapolating value. So, how is Wilson being used by the Cardinals?
MICHAEL WILSON UTILIZATION
Look at that opportunity! 91% of the routes in Week 1! An absurd aDot of 16 on the year, including two games above 22 yards, also highlights the high-upside nature of his role. Even after a reduced role in weeks two and three from either a route participation or target share standpoint, Wilson’s PPR points per game have steadily increased each week.
Arizona appears to be methodically ingratiating Wilson to the game plan. In Week 4, he caught all seven of his targets for 76 yards and a trip to paydirt. It appears he has even supplanted Rondale Moore.
Oh, and he did it against the San Franciso 49ers.
Four of his catches were for first downs, supporting preseason notions that Wilson was becoming a go-to guy for moving the chains, and a safety valve when his QBs were under duress. His Week 4 touchdowns were the only touchdowns the Cardinals scored. It’s also worth noting that since Week 1, Wilson has caught literally every ball that has been thrown his way.
In three of his four games played, Wilson has seen an average depth of target of at least 16 yards. He has a 29% market share of the team air yards and is targeted on around 17% of his routes. They are maximizing his vertical skillset and jump ball abilities, and giving Wilson chances for splash plays.
EARLY CONNECTION WITH JOSH DOBBS
Joshua Dobbs has done more than just fill in as starting quarterback Kyler Murray continues his return from a 2022 torn ACL. The connection between Dobbs and Wilson could develop into something special the longer Murray continues to rehab.
Hollywood Brown‘s receiving totals only exceed Wilson’s by two yards despite running 23 more routes. Wilson’s 2.49 Y/RR leads the Cardinals and ranks 15th among all receivers with at least 70 routes run.
SHOULD YOU START WILSON IN WEEK 5?
The matchup with the Bengals might not have the sexiest of shootout potential. Still, between Wilson’s value-based on his opportunity and his connection with Dobbs, the opportunity for fantasy points is still there.
In other words, Wilson’s role is carved out and, at least as long as Dobbs is starting, Wilson is a viable flex candidate and/or bye-week filler!
Wilson checks in at WR34 (+8 vs ECR) on The Wolf’s Week 5 Rankings.
